Economics of Transportation最新文献

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Should I stay or should I go? An empirical analysis of consumer behavior using airline web-traffic data 我该留下还是走？利用航空公司网络流量数据对消费者行为进行实证分析

IF 2.2 3区工程技术 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics of Transportation

Pub Date : 2025-06-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100425

Alex Marsh , Garrett Scott , Drew Van Kuiken , Jonathan W. Williams

We analyze consumer search and purchase behavior in response to airline revenue-management practices using data from a major carrier’s website and Google Flights. We first describe patterns in search timing, purchase decisions, and paid fares. Then we estimate a multinomial logistic regression to identify factors driving search timing, finding that single adults with loyalty status, especially booking one-way nonstop itineraries, tend to search closer to departure. Next, we use a binary logistic model of conversions of searches to sales, showing that competitors’ prices and changing customer composition explain rising conversion probabilities as departure nears. Finally, using a fixed-effects regression, we reveal how search and booking patterns affect prices paid. Late-arriving travelers, particularly single adults with loyalty status, pay substantially more, consistent with the airline’s pricing strategies that segment more inelastic customers. Overall, our findings underscore how revenue-management, competitor fares, and consumer characteristics jointly shape online search and purchase behavior.

我们利用一家大型航空公司网站和谷歌Flights的数据，根据航空公司的收入管理实践，分析了消费者的搜索和购买行为。我们首先描述搜索时间、购买决策和已付票价的模式。然后，我们估计了一个多项式逻辑回归来确定驱动搜索时间的因素，发现具有忠诚状态的单身成年人，尤其是预订单程直达行程的单身成年人，倾向于在离出发更近的地方搜索。接下来，我们使用搜索到销售的转换的二元逻辑模型，显示竞争对手的价格和不断变化的客户组成解释了随着离开的临近而上升的转换概率。最后，使用固定效应回归，我们揭示了搜索和预订模式如何影响支付的价格。晚到的旅客，尤其是拥有忠诚身份的单身成年人，支付的费用要高得多，这与该航空公司针对更缺乏弹性的顾客的定价策略是一致的。总体而言，我们的研究结果强调了收入管理、竞争对手票价和消费者特征如何共同影响在线搜索和购买行为。

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引用次数: 0

The impacts of airline corporate social responsibility in the air transport industry 航空公司企业社会责任对航空运输业的影响

IF 2.2 3区工程技术 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics of Transportation

Pub Date : 2025-06-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100423

Adrián Nerja , Mariola Sánchez

This paper investigates the implications of airline corporate social responsibility (CSR) uptake in the air transport industry. Then, we extend the analysis considering the impact of parallel airline alliances on CSR of airlines. The results suggest that airports play a crucial role in shaping the CSR practices of airlines and that this impact should be viewed in the context of a network in the downstream market. When an airline adopts CSR, it can lead to an increase in social welfare and consumer surplus if the degree of substitutability of services provided by the airline and its parallel alliance is high enough.

本文调查了航空公司企业社会责任（CSR）的含义在航空运输业吸收。然后，考虑平行航空联盟对航空公司社会责任的影响，对分析进行了扩展。研究结果表明，机场在塑造航空公司的社会责任实践方面发挥着至关重要的作用，这种影响应该在下游市场网络的背景下看待。当航空公司采取企业社会责任时，如果航空公司及其平行联盟提供的服务的可替代性程度足够高，则会导致社会福利和消费者剩余的增加。

引用次数: 0

Public transport pricing: An evaluation of the 9-Euro ticket and an alternative policy proposal 公共交通定价：对9欧元票价的评估和替代政策建议

IF 2.2 3区工程技术 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics of Transportation

Pub Date : 2025-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100415

Mark A. Andor , Fabian T. Dehos , Kenneth T. Gillingham , Sven Hansteen , Lukas Tomberg

In summer 2022, Germany allowed nationwide access to public transport for just 9 euros per month. In this paper, we examine the effects of this “9-Euro Ticket” and compare our results with other analyses that use different empirical approaches. The evidence shows that the ticket induced only a marginal shift from car to public transport and that it has primarily been used to expand mobility rather than to substitute car trips. We approximate the welfare effects of the policy by estimating the short-run marginal value of public funds to be around 1. Compared to other potential policies, this value is relatively low and indicates that alternative policies could achieve a higher welfare gain at comparable costs. Based on these results and in conjunction with evidence from similar programs and insights from economic theory, we propose and discuss the introduction of dynamic pricing for public transport as a welfare-enhancing alternative.

2022年夏天，德国允许全国范围内的公共交通每月只需9欧元。在本文中，我们研究了这种“9欧元门票”的影响，并将我们的结果与使用不同实证方法的其他分析进行了比较。有证据表明，票证只引起了从汽车到公共交通的微小转变，而且它主要是用来扩大流动性，而不是代替汽车出行。我们通过估计公共资金的短期边际价值约为1来近似该政策的福利效应。与其他潜在政策相比，该值相对较低，表明替代政策可以以可比成本实现更高的福利收益。基于这些结果，并结合类似项目的证据和经济理论的见解，我们建议并讨论引入公共交通动态定价作为提高福利的替代方案。

引用次数: 0

The impact of carbon pricing on tourist destinations: Shifts in demand, supply and emissions in the European aviation market 碳定价对旅游目的地的影响：欧洲航空市场需求、供应和排放的变化

IF 2.2 3区工程技术 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics of Transportation

Pub Date : 2025-04-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100414

Xavier Fageda , Katrin Oesingmann

This paper provides novel evidence of the impact of the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) as applied to the aviation sector on tourist destinations. We use annual data at the route level for the period 2010–2022 and consider a sample comprising a large set of European cities of origin, on the one hand, and tourist destinations in Europe, North and West Africa and the Middle East, on the other. We apply a difference-in-differences analysis to a matched sample and find that the EU ETS has led to less emissions, less flights and to a lower extent less seats. In contrast, we do not find a negative impact of the EU ETS on passenger numbers. While the attractiveness of tourist destinations in Europe does not seem to have been affected by the EU ETS, our results suggest that it has promoted greater efficiency in airline operations.

本文提供了新的证据，证明欧盟排放交易体系（EU ETS）应用于航空部门对旅游目的地的影响。我们使用2010-2022年期间航线级别的年度数据，并考虑一个样本，其中包括一大批欧洲原产城市，以及欧洲、北非、西非和中东的旅游目的地。我们对匹配的样本进行了差异中差异分析，发现欧盟排放交易体系导致了更少的排放，更少的航班和更少的座位。相比之下，我们没有发现EU ETS对乘客数量的负面影响。虽然欧洲旅游目的地的吸引力似乎没有受到欧盟排放交易体系的影响，但我们的研究结果表明，欧盟排放交易体系提高了航空公司的运营效率。

引用次数: 0

Towards a competitive air transport market in Africa: The role of bilateral air service agreements liberalization 迈向非洲竞争性航空运输市场：双边航空服务协定自由化的作用

IF 2.2 3区工程技术 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics of Transportation

Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100412

Anca D. Cristea , Megersa Abate , Daniel A. Benitez

This study examines the impact of bilateral air service agreements (ASAs) on air passenger transport in Africa and quantifies the consumer welfare effects associated with air transport liberalization. Using an unbalanced panel of 71 country pairs from Africa observed over the period 2011–2019, the paper estimates the extent to which bilateral ASA liberalization affects: 1) passenger travel, 2) average air fares, 3) flight frequency, and 4) market competition within a country pair. Our empirical analysis employs the difference-in-differences estimation method and pays close attention to the endogeneity concerns coming from the simultaneity and reverse causality surrounding pricing, demand, and frequency decisions. Our results indicate that both partial and full liberalization of bilateral ASAs lead to a reduction in air fares, and to an increase in air travel demand and flight frequency, respectively. We find no evidence that market competition, as measured by the number of operating airlines, increases following liberalization. After quantifying all the channels through which the policy environment can affect air transport markets in Africa, we find that aviation liberalization generates consumer benefits that are equivalent to a 38 percent drop in air fares, i.e., the price equivalent effect of air liberalization.

本研究考察了双边航空服务协定（asa）对非洲航空客运的影响，并量化了与航空运输自由化相关的消费者福利效应。本文利用2011-2019年期间观察到的71个非洲国家对的不平衡面板，估计了双边ASA自由化对以下方面的影响程度：1)乘客旅行，2)平均机票价格，3)航班频率，以及4)国家对内部的市场竞争。我们的实证分析采用差异中的差异估计方法，并密切关注定价、需求和频率决策的同时性和反向因果关系所带来的内生性问题。我们的研究结果表明，双边asa的部分和完全自由化分别导致机票价格的降低，以及航空旅行需求和航班频率的增加。我们没有发现任何证据表明市场竞争（以运营航空公司的数量衡量）在自由化之后会增加。在量化政策环境可以影响非洲航空运输市场的所有渠道后，我们发现航空自由化产生的消费者利益相当于机票价格下降38%，即航空自由化的价格等效效应。

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引用次数: 0

Road illumination and nighttime pedestrian deaths: Evidence from moonlight 道路照明与夜间行人死亡：来自月光的证据

IF 2.2 3区工程技术 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics of Transportation

Pub Date : 2025-03-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100411

Justin Tyndall

Of the 7500 pedestrian road deaths recorded in the US in 2022, 79% took place during the night. Low lighting reduces visibility, potentially increasing the frequency and severity of vehicle-pedestrian collisions. I use complete US data on 193,000 nighttime pedestrian deaths, spanning 1975 to 2022. Nightly variation in moonlight provides a natural experiment that exogenously impacts road illumination. Across the US, nighttime pedestrian deaths are 5% lower when the moon is at its brightest, compared to a night with no moonlight. Under cloud-free conditions, peak moonlight causes a 17% drop in pedestrian deaths. In rural areas with low artificial lighting, the effect is 39%. I establish a clear causal relationship between road illumination and pedestrian safety. A small increase in ambient light causes a large improvement in pedestrian outcomes. The finding has policy implications for road safety and the artificial lighting of roadways.

2022 年，美国记录在案的 7500 起行人道路死亡事故中，79% 发生在夜间。低照明降低了能见度，可能会增加车辆与行人碰撞的频率和严重程度。我使用了 1975 年至 2022 年美国 193,000 例夜间行人死亡的完整数据。月光的夜间变化提供了一个自然实验，对道路照明产生了外生影响。在全美范围内，与没有月光的夜晚相比，月光最亮时的夜间行人死亡人数要低 5%。在无云的条件下，月光最亮时，行人死亡人数下降 17%。在人工照明较少的农村地区，效果则为 39%。我在道路照明和行人安全之间建立了明确的因果关系。环境光线的小幅增加会导致行人安全状况的大幅改善。这一发现对道路安全和道路人工照明具有政策意义。

引用次数: 0

Telecommuting and the recovery of passenger aviation post-COVID-19 远程办公与covid -19后客运航空的恢复

IF 2.2 3区工程技术 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics of Transportation

Pub Date : 2025-03-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100409

Anca D. Cristea , Anna Miromanova

Air passenger transport has been dramatically impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic due to lockdown policies and social distancing mandates. However, once restrictions were lifted, air traffic has reverted very slowly to pre-pandemic levels with many markets still recovering from the downturn. We try to understand what causes this sluggish recovery of air passenger transport and ask whether it could be related to structural changes in business and working arrangements post-pandemic. Specifically, we consider if the dramatic shift towards telecommuting and remote work has transformed the nature of business interactions in the marketplace, leading to a negative demand shock for air travel. We use U.S. city-level data on the fraction of jobs that can be performed remotely to proxy for telecommuting, and employ a difference-in-differences estimation method to investigate if air travel demand post-COVID is lower in cities with a larger share of remote work, all else equal. An event study analysis using monthly data evaluates differences in air passenger traffic across cities in the periods leading up to the COVID-19 outbreak and during its aftermath, distinguishing between cities with a higher versus lower share of remote jobs. All the estimation results lend support to the hypothesis that the raise in telecommuting following the COVID-19 pandemic has slowed down the recovery of air travel to pre-pandemic levels.

由于封锁政策和保持社交距离的规定，航空客运受到COVID-19大流行的巨大影响。然而，一旦取消限制，空中交通量就会非常缓慢地恢复到大流行前的水平，许多市场仍在从低迷中复苏。我们试图了解导致航空客运复苏缓慢的原因，并询问这是否可能与大流行后业务和工作安排的结构性变化有关。具体而言，我们考虑的是，向远程办公和远程工作的巨大转变是否改变了市场中业务互动的性质，从而导致对航空旅行的负面需求冲击。我们使用美国城市级别的数据来代表远程办公的工作比例，并采用差中差估计方法来调查在其他条件相同的情况下，在远程工作份额较大的城市，covid后的航空旅行需求是否更低。一项使用月度数据的事件研究分析评估了2019冠状病毒病爆发前和爆发后各城市航空客运量的差异，区分了远程工作比例较高和较低的城市。所有的估计结果都支持这样一种假设，即COVID-19大流行后远程办公的增加减缓了航空旅行恢复到大流行前的水平。

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引用次数: 0

Currents of change: Social-environmental valuation of electric ships for sustainable passenger transport 变化的潮流：可持续客运的电动船的社会环境评价

IF 2.2 3区工程技术 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics of Transportation

Pub Date : 2025-03-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100413

André Oliveira , Gualter Couto , Pedro Pimentel

Air and maritime transport services enable mobility and economic and social development, but they have significant environmental impacts. To reduce carbon emissions, there is a growing trend towards adopting electric ships for short-distance passenger transport. Nonetheless, there is a lack of appropriate valuation frameworks. This paper proposes a framework specifically tailored for evaluating investments in electric ships, considering the economic, environmental, and social impacts. A real options approach balancing users' utility is used, with demand following a stochastic process and unexpected jumps. Using the Azores as an empirical case study, the results revealed that investing 25 million euros in electric ships yields a significantly positive impact on social welfare (1906 million euros). For long-distance travel, maritime transport's impact on social welfare is diminished, making it less suitable. Embracing electric ships can unlock new possibilities for enhancing social welfare and sustainability. The contribution of this paper lies in its unique approach, as very few frameworks enable the comprehensive social-environmental valuation of green investments.

空运和海运服务促进了流动性和经济社会发展，但也对环境产生了重大影响。为了减少碳排放，采用电动船进行短途客运的趋势越来越明显。然而，缺乏适当的估值框架。本文提出了一个专门为评估电动船舶投资而量身定制的框架，考虑到经济、环境和社会影响。在需求遵循随机过程和意外跳跃的情况下，采用了一种平衡用户效用的实物期权方法。以亚速尔群岛为实证案例研究，结果显示，投资2500万欧元的电动船舶对社会福利产生了显著的积极影响（1906万欧元）。对于长途旅行，海运对社会福利的影响减弱，使其不太适合。拥抱电动船舶可以为提高社会福利和可持续性提供新的可能性。本文的贡献在于其独特的方法，因为很少有框架能够对绿色投资进行全面的社会环境评估。

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引用次数: 0

Airport congestion pricing and capacity: Cost recovery with per-flight or per-passenger charges 机场拥挤收费和容量：按每架航班或每名乘客收费收回成本

IF 2.2 3区工程技术 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics of Transportation

Pub Date : 2025-03-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100410

Ming Hsin Lin

This study investigates congestion pricing and capacity investment for internationally interlinked airports considering cost recovery. Our global welfare maximization shows that “single pricing per-flight” or “single pricing per-passenger” could be sufficiently cost-recovering alternatives when first-best per-passenger subsidies are not feasible under “mix pricing (choosing per-flight and per-passenger charges).” However, each cost-recovering single-pricing method causes distortions, and single pricing per-flight is the smaller distortive. Our local welfare maximization shows similar results when per-passenger subsidies under mix pricing for each country are not feasible. Surprisingly, when each country's mix pricing does not require per-passenger subsidies, the distortions under cost-recovering single pricing per-flight may be smaller than those under cost-recovering mix pricing. However, each airport's capacity investment can be socially efficient only when single pricing per-passenger is adopted.

本研究考察了考虑成本回收的国际互联机场的拥堵定价和运力投资。我们的全球福利最大化表明，当“混合定价（选择按航班和按乘客收费）”下的按乘客补贴不可行时，“按航班单一定价”或“按乘客单一定价”可能是充分回收成本的替代方案。然而，每一种成本回收的单一定价方法都会造成扭曲，而每次飞行的单一定价是较小的扭曲。当每个国家的混合定价下的每位乘客补贴不可行时，我们的当地福利最大化也显示出类似的结果。令人惊讶的是，当每个国家的混合定价不需要每个乘客补贴时，每次航班的成本回收单一定价的扭曲可能比成本回收混合定价的扭曲要小。然而，各机场的容量投资只有在采用单旅客定价时才能达到社会效率。

引用次数: 0

Collusion prevention mechanism in PPP highway projects: Optimal government subsidy, toll and penalty PPP公路项目合谋防范机制：政府补贴、收费和处罚的优化

IF 2.2 3区工程技术 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics of Transportation

Pub Date : 2025-02-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100399

Yueyi Hou, Hongwei Wang, Guanqun Shi

We study the collusion between the regulator and the private sector in misreporting service quality in highway projects to obtain performance-based subsidies. The impact of collusion on government subsidies and tolls is analyzed using the principal-agent model, and a mechanism to prevent collusion is devised. The analysis explores the incentive effect of government subsidies on effort in the collusion case. A mechanism for preventing collusion was presented to induce the supervision department to report truthful service information, and the effectiveness of the mechanism was analyzed. These results indicate that collusion leads to subsidies that no longer motivate efforts to improve service quality. Specific subsidies and penalties were provided as collusion prevention mechanisms. The collusion prevention mechanism effectively alleviates the ineffectiveness of subsidies, encourages the private sector to increase its efforts, reduces tolls, and improves social welfare. Social welfare is maximized when collusion penalties are imposed entirely on the private sector.

我们研究了监管机构和私营部门在高速公路项目中虚假报告服务质量以获得基于绩效的补贴的勾结。运用委托代理模型分析了合谋对政府补贴和通行费的影响，并设计了防止合谋的机制。分析了合谋案中政府补贴对努力的激励作用。提出了一种防止合谋的机制，诱导监管部门如实报告服务信息，并对该机制的有效性进行了分析。这些结果表明，共谋导致补贴不再激励提高服务质量的努力。规定了具体的补贴和处罚措施，作为防止串谋的机制。合谋防范机制有效缓解了补贴的无效性，鼓励私营部门加大力度，降低了通行费，提高了社会福利水平。只有对私企进行合谋处罚，社会福利才会最大化。

引用次数: 0

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