The present special issue brings together papers that focus on relevant theoretical perspectives and empirical research concerning individual and collective processes of radicalization, and social dynamics and conflicts associated with them. It also examines strategies to prevent the initiation of such processes and thereby connects analyses and transfer. Eight articles advance the current state of the art with regard to three aspects of radicalization within the context of Islamist terrorism, namely: 1) radicalization as a relational process; 2) social challenges and the role of foreign policy; and 3) prevention strategies. Together they represent important current empirical studies and point to directions where research is urgently needed.
{"title":"Processes of Radicalization and Polarization in the Context of Transnational Islamist Terrorism","authors":"Arin H. Ayanian, Nils Böckler, B. Doosje, A. Zick","doi":"10.4119/UNIBI/IJCV.648","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4119/UNIBI/IJCV.648","url":null,"abstract":"The present special issue brings together papers that focus on relevant theoretical perspectives and empirical research concerning individual and collective processes of radicalization, and social dynamics and conflicts associated with them. It also examines strategies to prevent the initiation of such processes and thereby connects analyses and transfer. Eight articles advance the current state of the art with regard to three aspects of radicalization within the context of Islamist terrorism, namely: 1) radicalization as a relational process; 2) social challenges and the role of foreign policy; and 3) prevention strategies. Together they represent important current empirical studies and point to directions where research is urgently needed.","PeriodicalId":45781,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Conflict and Violence","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2019-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.4119/UNIBI/IJCV.648","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47383837","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In recent years there has been an upsurge in violent attacks conducted by pairs of individuals who have undergone a shared process of radicalisation. Violent dyads remain a relatively understudied phenomenon. Using a relational approach, this article analyses the unique character of dyadic radicalisation and how it differs from instances of lone actor or group-based terrorism. It draws on a number of recent case studies, analysing instances of non-kin, fraternal, and spousal dyads. Its principal case study is a failed attack in Germany in 2006, based on a range of documentary sources as well as an interview with one of the perpetrators.
{"title":"Killing in Pairs: Radicalisation Patterns of Violent Dyads","authors":"Francis O’Connor, S. Malthaner, Lasse Lindekilde","doi":"10.4119/UNIBI/IJCV.640","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4119/UNIBI/IJCV.640","url":null,"abstract":"In recent years there has been an upsurge in violent attacks conducted by pairs of individuals who have undergone a shared process of radicalisation. Violent dyads remain a relatively understudied phenomenon. Using a relational approach, this article analyses the unique character of dyadic radicalisation and how it differs from instances of lone actor or group-based terrorism. It draws on a number of recent case studies, analysing instances of non-kin, fraternal, and spousal dyads. Its principal case study is a failed attack in Germany in 2006, based on a range of documentary sources as well as an interview with one of the perpetrators.","PeriodicalId":45781,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Conflict and Violence","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2019-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.4119/UNIBI/IJCV.640","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46576713","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In both the United States and Europe, explanations of homegrown radicalization emphasize the power of Salafi-jihadist ideology and Muslim experiences of discrimination and socioeconomic deprivation in Western countries. Polls of U.S. and European Muslims, and case histories of jihadist plots for attacks in the United States, indicate that another source of homegrown radicalization is Western foreign policy, especially Western interventions in predominantly Muslim countries. Poll results support a two-factor model in which seeing the war on terrorism as a war on Islam is predicted by both perceived discrimination and grievance related to Western foreign policy. Consistent with this model, UK practitioners in counter-radicalization programs find it useful to recognize Muslim grievances related to Western foreign policy in order to argue that violence does not reduce Muslim suffering. These observations indicate that Muslim grievances relating to Western foreign policy are important for under - standing and countering support for jihadist violence in Western countries.
{"title":"Explaining Homegrown Western Jihadists: The Importance of Western Foreign Policy","authors":"C. McCauley","doi":"10.4119/UNIBI/IJCV.643","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4119/UNIBI/IJCV.643","url":null,"abstract":"In both the United States and Europe, explanations of homegrown radicalization emphasize the power of Salafi-jihadist ideology and Muslim experiences of discrimination and socioeconomic deprivation in Western countries. Polls of U.S. and European Muslims, and case histories of jihadist plots for attacks in the United States, indicate that another source of homegrown radicalization is Western foreign policy, especially Western interventions in predominantly Muslim countries. Poll results support a two-factor model in which seeing the war on terrorism as a war on Islam is predicted by both perceived discrimination and grievance related to Western foreign policy. Consistent with this model, UK practitioners in counter-radicalization programs find it useful to recognize Muslim grievances related to Western foreign policy in order to argue that violence does not reduce Muslim suffering. These observations indicate that Muslim grievances relating to Western foreign policy are important for under - standing and countering support for jihadist violence in Western countries.","PeriodicalId":45781,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Conflict and Violence","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2019-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.4119/UNIBI/IJCV.643","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46286539","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Research shows that people are less likely to have mental health problems after a disaster, if they feel that they have learned from it and grown as a person. This phenomenon that a traumatic experience can have positive consequences is called “posttraumatic growth.” In the current study, we investigate whether inhabitants of countries can also experience post-traumatic growth after a large-scale traumatic experience, namely a terror attack. We examined data from the European Social Survey with 75,805 participants for thirteen European countries at one moment before a terror attack and two after it. If inhabitants of these countries experienced post-traumatic growth in terms of government, then we would expect their political and institutional trust to increase after a terror attack. In terms of post-traumatic growth of community, we expected social trust to increase. Our results suggest that, overall, post-traumatic growth does not occur. Specifically, political trust does not change significantly after a terror attack; institutional trust decreases directly after, only to increase again later. In terms of community, social trust remains largely unaffected after a terror attack. Interestingly, this overall pattern does not occur in all individual countries: in-depth analyses indicate a pattern in line with post-traumatic growth for specific countries. We discuss potential expla - nations.
{"title":"Can Societies Experience Post-Traumatic Growth after a Terror Attack? The Influence of Terror Attacks on Political, Institutional, and Social Trust in European Countries","authors":"B. Doosje, J. Veen, L. Klaver","doi":"10.4119/UNIBI/IJCV.645","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4119/UNIBI/IJCV.645","url":null,"abstract":"Research shows that people are less likely to have mental health problems after a disaster, if they feel that they have learned from it and grown as a person. This phenomenon that a traumatic experience can have positive consequences is called “posttraumatic growth.” In the current study, we investigate whether inhabitants of countries can also experience post-traumatic growth after a large-scale traumatic experience, namely a terror attack. We examined data from the European Social Survey with 75,805 participants for thirteen European countries at one moment before a terror attack and two after it. If inhabitants of these countries experienced post-traumatic growth in terms of government, then we would expect their political and institutional trust to increase after a terror attack. In terms of post-traumatic growth of community, we expected social trust to increase. Our results suggest that, overall, post-traumatic growth does not occur. Specifically, political trust does not change significantly after a terror attack; institutional trust decreases directly after, only to increase again later. In terms of community, social trust remains largely unaffected after a terror attack. Interestingly, this overall pattern does not occur in all individual countries: in-depth analyses indicate a pattern in line with post-traumatic growth for specific countries. We discuss potential expla - nations.","PeriodicalId":45781,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Conflict and Violence","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2019-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.4119/UNIBI/IJCV.645","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48121483","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
L. Frischlich, Diana Rieger, Anna Morten, Gary Bente
The perceived threat of extremist online propaganda has generated a need for countermeasures applicable to large audiences. The dissemination of videos designed to counter violent extremism (CVE videos) is widely discussed. These videos are often described as "counter-narratives," implying that narrativity is a crucial factor for their effectiveness. Experimental research testing this assumption is rare and direct comparisons of narrativity effects between propaganda and CVE videos are lacking. To fill this gap, we conducted two experiments (one in a laboratory and one online) in which we confronted German participants with different religious affiliations and from various cultural backgrounds (NStudy 1 = 338 and NStudy 2 = 155) with Islamist extremist or right-wing extremist propaganda videos and with corresponding CVE videos. The results confirmed that narrativity (a) increases persuasive processing of propaganda and CVE videos, (b) fosters amplification intentions regarding these videos, and (c) increases attraction to extremists versus counter-activists. Thus, our studies highlight the crucial role of narrativity in both extremist propaganda and video-based CVE approaches.
{"title":"The Power of a Good Story: Narrative Persuasion in Extremist Propaganda and Videos against Violent Extremism","authors":"L. Frischlich, Diana Rieger, Anna Morten, Gary Bente","doi":"10.4119/UNIBI/IJCV.644","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4119/UNIBI/IJCV.644","url":null,"abstract":"The perceived threat of extremist online propaganda has generated a need for countermeasures applicable to large audiences. The dissemination of videos designed to counter violent extremism (CVE videos) is widely discussed. These videos are often described as \"counter-narratives,\" implying that narrativity is a crucial factor for their effectiveness. Experimental research testing this assumption is rare and direct comparisons of narrativity effects between propaganda and CVE videos are lacking. To fill this gap, we conducted two experiments (one in a laboratory and one online) in which we confronted German participants with different religious affiliations and from various cultural backgrounds (NStudy 1 = 338 and NStudy 2 = 155) with Islamist extremist or right-wing extremist propaganda videos and with corresponding CVE videos. The results confirmed that narrativity (a) increases persuasive processing of propaganda and CVE videos, (b) fosters amplification intentions regarding these videos, and (c) increases attraction to extremists versus counter-activists. Thus, our studies highlight the crucial role of narrativity in both extremist propaganda and video-based CVE approaches.","PeriodicalId":45781,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Conflict and Violence","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2019-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.4119/UNIBI/IJCV.644","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42609319","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
What triggers xenophobic violence in South Africa? By answering this deceivingly simple but critical question, this paper highlights an often-missed empirical factor and key element in the xenophobic violence causal chain: mobilization. Drawing from extensive, comparative empirical data and global literature, the paper argues that, while macro and micro-level socio-economic and political circumstances are important elements in heightening tensions and creating collective discontent, anger and resentment towards foreign nationals, it is the mobilization of this discontent and not the discontent itself that triggers xenophobic attacks in locations where they occur. Mobilization is the vital connective tissue between discontent and xenophobic violence. Local violence entrepreneurs use well-known mobilization techniques, including haranguing and parochial patronage, to stir crowds into targeted and well-organized violent attacks of foreign nationals in South Africa. While this argument is in line with existing theoretical approaches that emphasize mobilization as a key causal factor in the occurrence of collective violence, the paper provides useful solid empirical backing these still hesitant approaches require to consolidate their explanatory value and efficacy.
{"title":"Political Mobilisation as the Trigger of Xenophobic Violence in Post-Apartheid South Africa","authors":"J. Misago","doi":"10.4119/UNIBI/IJCV.646","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4119/UNIBI/IJCV.646","url":null,"abstract":"What triggers xenophobic violence in South Africa? By answering this deceivingly simple but critical question, this paper highlights an often-missed empirical factor and key element in the xenophobic violence causal chain: mobilization. Drawing from extensive, comparative empirical data and global literature, the paper argues that, while macro and micro-level socio-economic and political circumstances are important elements in heightening tensions and creating collective discontent, anger and resentment towards foreign nationals, it is the mobilization of this discontent and not the discontent itself that triggers xenophobic attacks in locations where they occur. Mobilization is the vital connective tissue between discontent and xenophobic violence. Local violence entrepreneurs use well-known mobilization techniques, including haranguing and parochial patronage, to stir crowds into targeted and well-organized violent attacks of foreign nationals in South Africa. While this argument is in line with existing theoretical approaches that emphasize mobilization as a key causal factor in the occurrence of collective violence, the paper provides useful solid empirical backing these still hesitant approaches require to consolidate their explanatory value and efficacy.","PeriodicalId":45781,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Conflict and Violence","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2019-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.4119/UNIBI/IJCV.646","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46890076","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
About twenty young people travelled from a small German former mining settlement named Dinslaken-Lohberg to become fighters with al-Nusra and ISIS. They drew particular attention, with media reports about “members” of what they termed the “Lohberg Brigade” killed in the fighting, or in air strikes by the anti-ISIS coalition, or in spectacular suicide attacks claiming many victims. Drawing on that case, the article explores how neighborhood can effect the emergence and persistence of radicalisation to jihadi neo-Salafism. The author presents a series of local elements that interfere with one another to strengthen each other’s persistence and effects and thus promote the emergence and persistence of the radicalisation phenomenon at hand. The interference of elements is not an automatic but a social process, enacted by neighbors telling stories of conspiracy, of discrimination and recounting experiences of spirituality, heroism, masculinity, and femaleness. It is performed by neighbors setting, crossing and avoiding symbolic boundaries. And finally it is played by neighbors simply following their routines. The author shows how explaining space-related radicalisation processes means more than adding up spatial factors. His approach rejects the idea of isolating a single social fact – such as local structures, events, processes or social actors that existed, occurred or acted prior to the emergence of radicals in their neighbourhood – as definite cause for radicalisation.
{"title":"Neighbourhood Effects on Jihadist Radicalisation in Germany? Some Case-Based Remarks","authors":"Jörg Hüttermann","doi":"10.4119/UNIBI/IJCV.649","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4119/UNIBI/IJCV.649","url":null,"abstract":"About twenty young people travelled from a small German former mining settlement named Dinslaken-Lohberg to become fighters with al-Nusra and ISIS. They drew particular attention, with media reports about “members” of what they termed the “Lohberg Brigade” killed in the fighting, or in air strikes by the anti-ISIS coalition, or in spectacular suicide attacks claiming many victims. Drawing on that case, the article explores how neighborhood can effect the emergence and persistence of radicalisation to jihadi neo-Salafism. The author presents a series of local elements that interfere with one another to strengthen each other’s persistence and effects and thus promote the emergence and persistence of the radicalisation phenomenon at hand. The interference of elements is not an automatic but a social process, enacted by neighbors telling stories of conspiracy, of discrimination and recounting experiences of spirituality, heroism, masculinity, and femaleness. It is performed by neighbors setting, crossing and avoiding symbolic boundaries. And finally it is played by neighbors simply following their routines. The author shows how explaining space-related radicalisation processes means more than adding up spatial factors. His approach rejects the idea of isolating a single social fact – such as local structures, events, processes or social actors that existed, occurred or acted prior to the emergence of radicals in their neighbourhood – as definite cause for radicalisation.","PeriodicalId":45781,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Conflict and Violence","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2019-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.4119/UNIBI/IJCV.649","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45753326","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Understanding how best to proceed in the prevention of violent extremism is a significant concern for researchers and practitioners. This paper draws on interviews with thirty ‘countering violent extremism’ (CVE) practitioners, using a grounded theory approach focusing on those working at grassroots level, to highlight the way in which these individuals are mining their own personal experiences in their approaches to this work. Driven by a sense of frustration with the ‘accepted wisdom’, this involves drawing on personal skills and experiences to establish themselves as credible actors, thereby carving a space for themselves within a growing CVE industry. Moving beyond anecdotal evidence using grounded theory, this paper offers a systematic analysis of the experiences of these frontline practitioners. In considering what it is that practitioners are doing, and the context that pushes them to adopt this approach, this research offers significant insights into what is actually happening in the area of practice, contributing to understandings of the prevention landscape as a whole. This paper highlights the tensions between actors operating at different levels within the CVE sphere, with discrepancies in resources and power playing a central role.
{"title":"Dealing with Frustration: A Grounded Theory Study of CVE Practitioners","authors":"O. Lehane","doi":"10.4119/UNIBI/IJCV.641","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4119/UNIBI/IJCV.641","url":null,"abstract":"Understanding how best to proceed in the prevention of violent extremism is a significant concern for researchers and practitioners. This paper draws on interviews with thirty ‘countering violent extremism’ (CVE) practitioners, using a grounded theory approach focusing on those working at grassroots level, to highlight the way in which these individuals are mining their own personal experiences in their approaches to this work. Driven by a sense of frustration with the ‘accepted wisdom’, this involves drawing on personal skills and experiences to establish themselves as credible actors, thereby carving a space for themselves within a growing CVE industry. Moving beyond anecdotal evidence using grounded theory, this paper offers a systematic analysis of the experiences of these frontline practitioners. In considering what it is that practitioners are doing, and the context that pushes them to adopt this approach, this research offers significant insights into what is actually happening in the area of practice, contributing to understandings of the prevention landscape as a whole. This paper highlights the tensions between actors operating at different levels within the CVE sphere, with discrepancies in resources and power playing a central role.","PeriodicalId":45781,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Conflict and Violence","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2019-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70885630","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
There is a considerable evidence showing that many states in the Global South are very weak, and therefore struggle to carry out basic responsibilities of statehood. While a handful of studies have examined problems associated with state weakness, there is a paucity of scholarly literature that thoroughly explores its empirical implications on regional security. It is on this note that this article draws on the contemporary developments in the Lake Chad region to elucidate the nodes that connect state weakness and regional security instability. It argues that any state that cannot efficaciously control its borders, promptly respond to security emergencies and demonstrate substantial institutional capacity in addressing citizens’ needs is vulnerable to create regional insecurity, especially when the neighbouring states share similar attributes. The article concludes that an alternative approach to ensuring lasting regional security in such regions, especially in the present Lake Chad region, is deliberate commitment to state-building.
{"title":"State Weakness and Regional Security Instability: Evidence from Africa’s Lake Chad Region","authors":"Babatunde F. Obamamoye","doi":"10.4119/UNIBI/IJCV.639","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4119/UNIBI/IJCV.639","url":null,"abstract":"There is a considerable evidence showing that many states in the Global South are very weak, and therefore struggle to carry out basic responsibilities of statehood. While a handful of studies have examined problems associated with state weakness, there is a paucity of scholarly literature that thoroughly explores its empirical implications on regional security. It is on this note that this article draws on the contemporary developments in the Lake Chad region to elucidate the nodes that connect state weakness and regional security instability. It argues that any state that cannot efficaciously control its borders, promptly respond to security emergencies and demonstrate substantial institutional capacity in addressing citizens’ needs is vulnerable to create regional insecurity, especially when the neighbouring states share similar attributes. The article concludes that an alternative approach to ensuring lasting regional security in such regions, especially in the present Lake Chad region, is deliberate commitment to state-building.","PeriodicalId":45781,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Conflict and Violence","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2019-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.4119/UNIBI/IJCV.639","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42955453","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
An examination of the heuristic capabilities of the self-organized criticality (SOC) theory for studying social processes, reviewing key ideas of the theory and the methods of identifying pink noise as an SOC attribute. The authors analyze terrorism in twenty countries in the period from 1970s to 2014. The source of the background data is the Global Terrorism Database, maintained by the START Consortium. SOC approaches and methodology were used to identify and explain such non-linear effects as spontaneous outbreaks of terrorism. It is found that numerical series that reflect changes in the terrorism volume are essentially pink noise. This allowed the universal explanatory schemes of SOC theory to be applied to interpret such systems features and dynamics and demonstrate that in many countries, terrorism is a self-organized criticality phenomenon. Systems in the state of SOC are capable of abrupt growth in activity without any apparent reason. One of the parameters of the numerical series studied ‒ power-law exponent ‒ can serve as an indicator of the internal state of the societies prone to terror threats.
{"title":"Terrorism as a Self-Organised Criticality Phenomenon","authors":"N. Barabash, D. Zhukov","doi":"10.4119/UNIBI/ijcv.637","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4119/UNIBI/ijcv.637","url":null,"abstract":"An examination of the heuristic capabilities of the self-organized criticality (SOC) theory for studying social processes, reviewing key ideas of the theory and the methods of identifying pink noise as an SOC attribute. The authors analyze terrorism in twenty countries in the period from 1970s to 2014. The source of the background data is the Global Terrorism Database, maintained by the START Consortium. SOC approaches and methodology were used to identify and explain such non-linear effects as spontaneous outbreaks of terrorism. It is found that numerical series that reflect changes in the terrorism volume are essentially pink noise. This allowed the universal explanatory schemes of SOC theory to be applied to interpret such systems features and dynamics and demonstrate that in many countries, terrorism is a self-organized criticality phenomenon. Systems in the state of SOC are capable of abrupt growth in activity without any apparent reason. One of the parameters of the numerical series studied ‒ power-law exponent ‒ can serve as an indicator of the internal state of the societies prone to terror threats.","PeriodicalId":45781,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Conflict and Violence","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2018-12-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.4119/UNIBI/ijcv.637","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47610499","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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