Pub Date : 2023-10-31DOI: 10.1080/14662043.2023.2267241
Natalia Telepneva
{"title":"Remembering African labor migration to the Second World: Socialist mobilities between Angola, Mozambique, and East Germany <b>Remembering African labor migration to the Second World: Socialist mobilities between Angola, Mozambique, and East Germany</b> , by Marcia Schenck, Springer, 2022, xxvii + 377, $49.99 (softcover), ISBN 9783031067785","authors":"Natalia Telepneva","doi":"10.1080/14662043.2023.2267241","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/14662043.2023.2267241","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46038,"journal":{"name":"COMMONWEALTH & COMPARATIVE POLITICS","volume":"211 ","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135928278","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-31DOI: 10.1080/14662043.2023.2267238
Swapna Kona Nayudu
{"title":"Nehru: the debates that defined India <b>Nehru: the debates that defined India</b> , by Adeel Hussain and Tripurdaman Singh, New Dehli, Fourth Estate, 2021, 292 pp., £10.99(paperback), ISBN 9354229344","authors":"Swapna Kona Nayudu","doi":"10.1080/14662043.2023.2267238","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/14662043.2023.2267238","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46038,"journal":{"name":"COMMONWEALTH & COMPARATIVE POLITICS","volume":"91 ","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135929712","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-31DOI: 10.1080/14662043.2023.2267239
Karol Czuba
{"title":"Patchwork Leviathan: pockets of bureaucratic effectiveness in developing states <b>Patchwork Leviathan: pockets of bureaucratic effectiveness in developing states</b> , by Erin Metz McDonnell, Princeton, Princeton University Press, 2020, xvii + 290 pp., $115.00/£95.00 (hardback), ISBN 9780691197357","authors":"Karol Czuba","doi":"10.1080/14662043.2023.2267239","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/14662043.2023.2267239","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46038,"journal":{"name":"COMMONWEALTH & COMPARATIVE POLITICS","volume":"42 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135928437","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-31DOI: 10.1080/14662043.2023.2267236
Jeffrey W. Paller
{"title":"Everyday state and democracy in Africa: ethnographic encounters <b>Everyday state and democracy in Africa: ethnographic encounters</b> , edited by Wale Adebanwi, Athens, Ohio, Ohio University Press, 2022, 427 pp., $39.95, ISBN 9780821424902","authors":"Jeffrey W. Paller","doi":"10.1080/14662043.2023.2267236","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/14662043.2023.2267236","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46038,"journal":{"name":"COMMONWEALTH & COMPARATIVE POLITICS","volume":"194 ","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135928286","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-31DOI: 10.1080/14662043.2023.2267240
Subrata Mitra
{"title":"Churchill and India: manipulation or betrayal <b>Churchill and India: manipulation or betrayal</b> , by Kishan S. Rana, London, Routledge, 2023, xxii+192 pp., $136 (hardback), ISBN 9781032467399","authors":"Subrata Mitra","doi":"10.1080/14662043.2023.2267240","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/14662043.2023.2267240","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46038,"journal":{"name":"COMMONWEALTH & COMPARATIVE POLITICS","volume":"308 ","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135928575","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-31DOI: 10.1080/14662043.2023.2267237
Kevin O’Sullivan
{"title":"Batman saves the Congo: how celebrities disrupt the politics of development <b>Batman saves the Congo: how celebrities disrupt the politics of development</b> , by Alexandra Cosima Budabin and Lisa Ann Richey, Minneapolis, University of Minnesota Press, 2021, xxviii + 301 pp., $27 (paperback), ISBN 9781517907594","authors":"Kevin O’Sullivan","doi":"10.1080/14662043.2023.2267237","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/14662043.2023.2267237","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46038,"journal":{"name":"COMMONWEALTH & COMPARATIVE POLITICS","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135928020","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-12DOI: 10.1080/14662043.2023.2262559
Christopher A. D. Charles
ABSTRACTThis study looks at election forecasting in Jamaica. The first Caribbean election forecast, recorded, was the inaccurate 1962 poll that stated that the PNP would win the referendum and Jamaica would remain in the regional federation. Polling lost credibility until Carl Stone restarted the practice in 1972. Stone accurately predicted the 1976, 1980 and 1989 general elections, unlike rival pollsters. Polling floundered in Jamaica after Stone died. Don Anderson, subsequently, became the most respected pollster. Selwyn Ryan and other pollsters worked in the eastern Caribbean. Caribbean politicians have recruited pollsters from outside their countries because of fears of partisan bias. Statistical models are a very useful complement to polls. I used the CHAMPSKNOW system to forecast the 2016 General Election, but the forecast was inaccurate. I used three logistic regression models to accurately forecast the 2020 General Election. Election forcasting in the Caribbean can be improved by using panel data.KEYWORDS: Political forecastingCaribbeanJamaicamodelspolls AcknowledgementsThis paper is dedicated to the memory of the late Carl Stone, professor of political sociology and pollster par excellence of the University of the West Indies, Mona Campus. I would like to thank Nadine McCloud-Rose and Herbert Gayle of the University of the West Indies, Mona for their suggestions and clarifying discussions over the years that have advanced my work in political forecasting. Thanks also to the referees whose comments and suggestions significantly improved the paper. I take full responsibility for all weaknesses in this paper. Correspondence: concerning this article should be addressed to Christopher A.D. Charles, Professor of Political and Social Psychology, Department of Government, University of the West Indies, Mona, Kingston 7, Jamaica. Email: christopher.charles02@uwimona.edu.jmDisclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1 Two of my political science professors at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York, political psychologist Stanley Renshon, and the late Asher Arian who also taught and conducted public opinion surveys in Israel, spoke highly of Professor Carl Stone, and were impressed by the accuracy of his pre-election polls.2 Don Anderson of Market Research Limited has stated publicly that it was the late JLP leader and former prime minister of Jamaica, Edward Seaga, who encouraged him to become a pollster.3 Details of LAPOP’s core project, the Americas Barometer, and their publications can be found at: https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop.4 A jack-knife resampling was conducted, in that the forecast year (2020) was removed from the data for estimation and forecasting (cross validation).
{"title":"Election forecasting in the Caribbean: Evidence from Jamaica 2015–2020","authors":"Christopher A. D. Charles","doi":"10.1080/14662043.2023.2262559","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/14662043.2023.2262559","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACTThis study looks at election forecasting in Jamaica. The first Caribbean election forecast, recorded, was the inaccurate 1962 poll that stated that the PNP would win the referendum and Jamaica would remain in the regional federation. Polling lost credibility until Carl Stone restarted the practice in 1972. Stone accurately predicted the 1976, 1980 and 1989 general elections, unlike rival pollsters. Polling floundered in Jamaica after Stone died. Don Anderson, subsequently, became the most respected pollster. Selwyn Ryan and other pollsters worked in the eastern Caribbean. Caribbean politicians have recruited pollsters from outside their countries because of fears of partisan bias. Statistical models are a very useful complement to polls. I used the CHAMPSKNOW system to forecast the 2016 General Election, but the forecast was inaccurate. I used three logistic regression models to accurately forecast the 2020 General Election. Election forcasting in the Caribbean can be improved by using panel data.KEYWORDS: Political forecastingCaribbeanJamaicamodelspolls AcknowledgementsThis paper is dedicated to the memory of the late Carl Stone, professor of political sociology and pollster par excellence of the University of the West Indies, Mona Campus. I would like to thank Nadine McCloud-Rose and Herbert Gayle of the University of the West Indies, Mona for their suggestions and clarifying discussions over the years that have advanced my work in political forecasting. Thanks also to the referees whose comments and suggestions significantly improved the paper. I take full responsibility for all weaknesses in this paper. Correspondence: concerning this article should be addressed to Christopher A.D. Charles, Professor of Political and Social Psychology, Department of Government, University of the West Indies, Mona, Kingston 7, Jamaica. Email: christopher.charles02@uwimona.edu.jmDisclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1 Two of my political science professors at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York, political psychologist Stanley Renshon, and the late Asher Arian who also taught and conducted public opinion surveys in Israel, spoke highly of Professor Carl Stone, and were impressed by the accuracy of his pre-election polls.2 Don Anderson of Market Research Limited has stated publicly that it was the late JLP leader and former prime minister of Jamaica, Edward Seaga, who encouraged him to become a pollster.3 Details of LAPOP’s core project, the Americas Barometer, and their publications can be found at: https://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop.4 A jack-knife resampling was conducted, in that the forecast year (2020) was removed from the data for estimation and forecasting (cross validation).","PeriodicalId":46038,"journal":{"name":"COMMONWEALTH & COMPARATIVE POLITICS","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135968174","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-02DOI: 10.1080/14662043.2023.2275454
Himanshu Jha
ABSTRACT This article aims to unravel how a weak state develops state capacity – an aspect hitherto ignored in mainstream literature. This is a study of a sub-national case of Bihar in India. Historically, Bihar is considered a weak state, lacking state capacity. Yet, improvements have occurred in recent decades. By profiling two areas of improved outcomes: infrastructure (roads and bridges) and welfare (distribution of bicycles to school-going girls), the article argues that the improvements are the outcome of the political and bureaucratic elite’s ideas and political will. The case of Bihar shows that the rationalities within a state depend on social learning, puzzling, and powering, having a powerful impact on policy paradigms even in weak states.
{"title":"Pathways to develop state capacity in a weak state: the sub-national state of Bihar in India","authors":"Himanshu Jha","doi":"10.1080/14662043.2023.2275454","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/14662043.2023.2275454","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This article aims to unravel how a weak state develops state capacity – an aspect hitherto ignored in mainstream literature. This is a study of a sub-national case of Bihar in India. Historically, Bihar is considered a weak state, lacking state capacity. Yet, improvements have occurred in recent decades. By profiling two areas of improved outcomes: infrastructure (roads and bridges) and welfare (distribution of bicycles to school-going girls), the article argues that the improvements are the outcome of the political and bureaucratic elite’s ideas and political will. The case of Bihar shows that the rationalities within a state depend on social learning, puzzling, and powering, having a powerful impact on policy paradigms even in weak states.","PeriodicalId":46038,"journal":{"name":"COMMONWEALTH & COMPARATIVE POLITICS","volume":"30 1","pages":"427 - 450"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2023-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139324880","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-02DOI: 10.1080/14662043.2023.2270273
Andrew B. Kirkpatrick
ABSTRACT A key theory of environmental politics holds that states must achieve a certain level of economic development before environmental protection will occur. The assumption is that once people attain economic satisfaction, they are no longer willing to accept environmental degradation in return for a greater standard of living. Yet, numerous developing states ratify environmental treaties without achieving a median-level per-capita income. How do some states reach environmental goals that require some behaviour change without the assumed demands of the citizenry? This paper argues that judicial autonomy may be the key to bringing environmental protection to the poorest states in the developing world. Activist judges, free of political interference, can push through policies that are unpopular but serve the greater good. Reacting to this, governments may be more likely to sign and ratify international environmental agreements. Using patterns of ratification for two conventions, I find evidence in favour of the hypothesis.
{"title":"Judicial activism and ratification of environmental treaties","authors":"Andrew B. Kirkpatrick","doi":"10.1080/14662043.2023.2270273","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/14662043.2023.2270273","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT A key theory of environmental politics holds that states must achieve a certain level of economic development before environmental protection will occur. The assumption is that once people attain economic satisfaction, they are no longer willing to accept environmental degradation in return for a greater standard of living. Yet, numerous developing states ratify environmental treaties without achieving a median-level per-capita income. How do some states reach environmental goals that require some behaviour change without the assumed demands of the citizenry? This paper argues that judicial autonomy may be the key to bringing environmental protection to the poorest states in the developing world. Activist judges, free of political interference, can push through policies that are unpopular but serve the greater good. Reacting to this, governments may be more likely to sign and ratify international environmental agreements. Using patterns of ratification for two conventions, I find evidence in favour of the hypothesis.","PeriodicalId":46038,"journal":{"name":"COMMONWEALTH & COMPARATIVE POLITICS","volume":"28 1","pages":"471 - 484"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2023-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139324744","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-03DOI: 10.1080/14662043.2023.2223773
Hannah Waddilove
ABSTRACT Campaign rallies are commonly understood as events where politicians appeal to a crowd of prospective voters to politically mobilise them. This article argues that an underexplored dimension of rallies is where they are used as performances to shape alliance-building between subnational and national politicians. Through focusing on two rallies organised by gubernatorial campaigns in Marsabit county, Kenya, for the president during the 2017 elections, the article shows how these rallies were used as tools to secure electoral alliances with the president’s campaign. It shows how organisers choreographed the crowd – through colour, props and positioning – to perform to the president their grassroots popularity, to secure electoral and post-election futures. This article builds on scholarship that takes a more complex look at what messages are performed at rallies, by and to whom, and how. It also offers insights on how elite alliance-building and devolution operate in a particular sub-national setting in Kenya.
{"title":"‘A show of numbers’: campaign rallies and performing elite alliance-building in Kenya","authors":"Hannah Waddilove","doi":"10.1080/14662043.2023.2223773","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/14662043.2023.2223773","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Campaign rallies are commonly understood as events where politicians appeal to a crowd of prospective voters to politically mobilise them. This article argues that an underexplored dimension of rallies is where they are used as performances to shape alliance-building between subnational and national politicians. Through focusing on two rallies organised by gubernatorial campaigns in Marsabit county, Kenya, for the president during the 2017 elections, the article shows how these rallies were used as tools to secure electoral alliances with the president’s campaign. It shows how organisers choreographed the crowd – through colour, props and positioning – to perform to the president their grassroots popularity, to secure electoral and post-election futures. This article builds on scholarship that takes a more complex look at what messages are performed at rallies, by and to whom, and how. It also offers insights on how elite alliance-building and devolution operate in a particular sub-national setting in Kenya.","PeriodicalId":46038,"journal":{"name":"COMMONWEALTH & COMPARATIVE POLITICS","volume":"34 1","pages":"315 - 333"},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2023-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76401210","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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