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Real Exchange Rate Misalignment and Currency Crises 实际汇率失调与货币危机
IF 4.1 2区 经济学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2020-09-01 DOI: 10.1080/00074918.2019.1662885
Unggul Heriqbaldi, W. Widodo, D. Ekowati
This article calculates the real exchange rate misalignment (RERM) of the rupiah to examine the role of misalignment in exchange rate crises in Indonesia. The article does this by employing an autoregressive regime-switching model and behavioural equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) approach. The findings are as follows. First, net foreign assets and the relative productivity differential between sectors significantly influence the equilibrium exchange rate, indicating that external and internal balance determine the behaviour of the rupiah in the long run. Second, the BEER approach can properly predict misalignment of the rupiah, especially through explaining the overvaluation periods of the rupiah before the Asian financial crisis. The regime switching model performs well in identifying episodes of stability and volatility in the rupiah. Third, of the 17 crisis episodes experienced in Indonesia in 1981–2012, 10 were preceded by high RERM.
本文计算了印尼盾的实际汇率错位(RERM),以检验错位在印尼汇率危机中的作用。本文采用自回归制度转换模型和行为均衡汇率(BEER)方法来实现这一点。研究结果如下。首先,外国净资产和部门之间的相对生产率差异显著影响均衡汇率,这表明从长远来看,外部和内部平衡决定了卢比的行为。其次,BEER方法可以正确预测卢比的错位,特别是通过解释亚洲金融危机前卢比的高估期。政权转换模型在识别印尼盾的稳定性和波动性方面表现良好。第三,在印度尼西亚1981年至2012年经历的17次危机中,有10次是在RERM高之前发生的。
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引用次数: 7
Direct and Indirect Effects of Covid-19 On Life Expectancy and Poverty in Indonesia 新冠肺炎对印度尼西亚预期寿命和贫困的直接和间接影响
IF 4.1 2区 经济学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2020-09-01 DOI: 10.1080/00074918.2020.1847244
J. Gibson, Susan Olivia
The spread and threat of Covid-19 have resulted in unprecedented economic and public health responses in Indonesia and elsewhere. We analyse the direct and indirect effects of Covid-19 on life expectancy and poverty in Indonesia, and the responses to the virus. We view life expectancy and poverty as indicators of quantity and quality of life. Our analysis shows that the indirect effects on life expectancy, which operate through lower future income, exceed the direct effects of Covid-19-related deaths by at least five orders of magnitude. The reduction in long-run real income due to the Covid-19 shock may reduce life expectancy by up to 1.7 years, compared with what could otherwise be expected. In contrast, even if the Covid-19 death toll to date were 40 times worse, life expectancy would fall by just two days. Given this imbalance between direct and indirect effects, any interventions to reduce the risk of Covid-19 must be finely targeted and must consider indirect effects. Our analysis of the geographic pattern of poverty effects, which is based on near real-time mobility data, discusses how targeted interventions that are less fiscally costly could be developed. Such interventions should pose less of a threat to future growth and may help to reduce the indirect effects of the Covid-19 shock.
新冠肺炎的传播和威胁导致了印度尼西亚和其他地方前所未有的经济和公共卫生应对措施。我们分析了新冠肺炎对印度尼西亚预期寿命和贫困的直接和间接影响,以及对该病毒的反应。我们将预期寿命和贫困视为生活数量和质量的指标。我们的分析表明,通过降低未来收入对预期寿命的间接影响,至少比新冠肺炎相关死亡的直接影响高出五个数量级。新冠肺炎冲击导致的长期实际收入减少,与其他预期相比,预期寿命可能缩短1.7年。相比之下,即使到目前为止新冠肺炎死亡人数增加了40倍,预期寿命也只会下降两天。鉴于这种直接和间接影响之间的不平衡,任何降低新冠肺炎风险的干预措施都必须有针对性,必须考虑间接影响。我们基于近乎实时的流动数据对贫困影响的地理模式进行了分析,讨论了如何制定财政成本较低的有针对性的干预措施。这种干预措施对未来增长的威胁应该较小,并可能有助于减少新冠肺炎冲击的间接影响。
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引用次数: 21
Digitalisation and the Performance of Micro and Small Enterprises in Yogyakarta, Indonesia 数字化与印尼日惹中小企业的绩效
IF 4.1 2区 经济学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2020-08-18 DOI: 10.1080/00074918.2020.1803210
Anna Falentina, Budy P. Resosudarmo, D. Darmawan, Eny Sulistyaningrum
This study examines the effects of internet use, as part of digitalisation, on the performance of micro and small enterprises (MSEs) in Yogyakarta province. Using primary data on MSEs in Yogyakarta, the paper exploits conceivably exogenous variations in the cellular signal strength that MSEs receive to connect to the internet, once number of local cellular transmitters, location topography, local building and infrastructure development and sectoral characteristics are controlled. The findings show that internet use has enabled MSEs to engage in the digital economy and has improved labour productivity and exports. The associated monetary benefit due to internet use is substantial for local people.
本研究考察了互联网使用作为数字化的一部分对日惹省微型和小型企业(MSEs)绩效的影响。利用日惹微型微型企业的原始数据,本文利用微型微型企业接收到连接到互联网的蜂窝信号强度的可想象的外生变化,一旦控制了本地蜂窝发射机的数量,位置地形,当地建筑和基础设施发展以及部门特征。研究结果表明,互联网的使用使中小企业能够参与数字经济,并提高了劳动生产率和出口。互联网的使用给当地居民带来了巨大的经济效益。
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引用次数: 7
EFFECTS OF PEER PRESSURE IN AGRO-CLUSTERS OF WEST JAVA 西爪哇农业集群同伴压力的影响
IF 4.1 2区 经济学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2020-07-22 DOI: 10.1080/00074918.2020.1780197
D. Wardhana, R. Ihle, W. Heijman
Agglomerations of agricultural activity yield a number of institutional and infrastructural benefits for farmers. However, these regional concentrations also increase competition among farmers. We quantify to what extent competitive pressure affects farmers’ behaviour in agro-clusters, by analysing a survey of 1,250 farmers in West Java. We use a conceptual model based on the theory of planned behaviour and a behavioural interaction model. We also propose and econometrically test several hypotheses. We find that specific competitive environments for certain aspects of agricultural production matter most. In high-density agglomerations, less peer pressure appears to foster more cooperative behaviour. Food insecurity increases self-interest, and more intense cooperation is associated with lower income and appears to be regionally heterogeneous. Policies intended to facilitate cooperation could therefore be tailored to specific aspects of agricultural production and specific regions of interest.
农业活动的聚集为农民带来了一些体制和基础设施方面的好处。然而,这些区域集中也加剧了农民之间的竞争。我们通过分析对西爪哇1,250名农民的调查,量化了竞争压力对农业集群中农民行为的影响程度。我们使用了一个基于计划行为理论的概念模型和一个行为交互模型。我们还提出并计量检验了几个假设。我们发现,农业生产某些方面的特定竞争环境最重要。在高密度的群体中,较少的同伴压力似乎会促进更多的合作行为。粮食不安全会增加自身利益,而更密切的合作与收入较低有关,而且似乎存在区域异质性。因此,旨在促进合作的政策可以针对农业生产的具体方面和具体感兴趣的区域加以调整。
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引用次数: 3
Does Urban form Affect Motorcycle Use? Evidence from Yogyakarta, Indonesia 城市形态影响摩托车使用吗?来自印度尼西亚日惹的证据
IF 4.1 2区 经济学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2020-05-04 DOI: 10.1080/00074918.2020.1747595
Sotya Fevriera, H. de Groot, P. Mulder
Motorcycles dominate urban road traffic across Asia. We analyse how urban form influences preferences for motorcycle use, using a multinomial logistic regression model and data from a recent field study in the metropolitan area of Yogyakarta. We find that urban form explains about 20% of the observed variance in transport mode choice and that population density has a statistically significant positive effect on the likelihood of using a motorcycle for commuting. In addition, we find that the likelihood of choosing a motorcycle over other transport modes is highest for individuals living at intermediate distances from the city centre and that, in comparison with other transport modes, motorcycle use is most sensitive to travel distance. Our results suggest that a compact urban form, including a high population density and short commuting distances, may help in reducing the growth of motorcycle use in urban areas.
摩托车在亚洲城市道路交通中占主导地位。我们分析了城市形态如何影响摩托车使用偏好,使用多项逻辑回归模型和最近在日惹大都市区进行的实地研究的数据。我们发现,城市形态解释了交通方式选择中约20%的观察到的差异,人口密度对使用摩托车上下班的可能性具有统计学上显著的积极影响。此外,我们发现,居住在离市中心中等距离的个人选择摩托车而不是其他交通方式的可能性最高,与其他交通方式相比,摩托车的使用对旅行距离最敏感。我们的研究结果表明,紧凑的城市形式,包括高人口密度和短通勤距离,可能有助于减少城市地区摩托车使用的增长。
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引用次数: 6
The Impact of Special Economic Zones and Government Intervention on Firm Productivity: The Case of Batam, Indonesia 经济特区与政府干预对企业生产率的影响:以印尼巴淡岛为例
IF 4.1 2区 经济学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2020-05-03 DOI: 10.1080/00074918.2019.1643005
A. Aritenang, Aryani N. Chandramidi
Various studies have explored the effects of industrial agglomeration and special economic zones (SEZs) in Asia, but there has been a lack of data-driven analysis of SEZ performance. This paper provides a case study on Batam, which has been developed as an SEZ through government-to-government (G2G) cooperation, offering lessons for other developing countries. The study examines the effects of industrial zones, foreign investment and government intervention on firm productivity, using an ex-post evaluation method and econometric models. The paper does not find conclusive evidence that Batam’s status as an SEZ affects firm productivity and growth. Although firm agglomeration proves beneficial for firm productivity, it is not clear that SEZ policy has driven this productivity. The paper argues that government policies should stimulate innovation and inter-firm cooperation to increase knowledge spillovers and technology transfer instead of focusing on attracting investment.
各种研究探讨了亚洲产业集聚和经济特区的影响,但缺乏对经济特区绩效的数据驱动分析。本文以巴淡岛为例,通过政府间合作将其发展为经济特区,为其他发展中国家提供了借鉴。本研究采用事后评估方法和计量经济学模型,考察了工业区、外国投资和政府干预对企业生产率的影响。该论文没有发现确凿的证据表明巴淡岛作为经济特区的地位会影响企业的生产力和增长。尽管事实证明企业集聚有利于企业生产率,但尚不清楚经济特区政策是否推动了这种生产率。本文认为,政府政策应刺激创新和企业间合作,以增加知识溢出和技术转让,而不是专注于吸引投资。
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引用次数: 18
Indonesia in the Time of Covid-19 新冠肺炎时期的印度尼西亚
IF 4.1 2区 经济学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2020-05-03 DOI: 10.1080/00074918.2020.1798581
Susan Olivia, J. Gibson, Rus’an Nasrudin
The Covid-19 virus has spread across the world with alarming speed, infecting millions and causing economic disruption on an unprecedented scale. In this survey, we examine the impact of the outbreak on the Indonesian economy, as well as the government’s response to the public health crisis and its provisions for the emerging economic crisis. Indonesia’s delay in responding to the health crisis while Covid-19 spread in neighbouring countries in January–February 2020 has been costly for the health of the population. The government’s policy responses have so far been aimed at steadying the ship, addressing both the needs of the poor and the potentially poor (vulnerable) groups. At the time of writing, Covid-19 had not been tamed in Indonesia by any means. Hence, its implications for economic growth, jobs and welfare remained uncertain, as policy discussions were all about opening up the economy from virus-imposed restrictions across the country, under what has been termed the ‘new normal’.
新冠肺炎病毒以惊人的速度在世界各地传播,感染了数百万人,并造成了前所未有的经济破坏。在这项调查中,我们考察了疫情对印尼经济的影响,以及政府对公共卫生危机的反应及其对新出现的经济危机的应对措施。2020年1月至2月,当新冠肺炎在邻国传播时,印度尼西亚延迟应对健康危机,这对民众的健康造成了代价。到目前为止,政府的政策回应旨在稳定这艘船,同时满足穷人和潜在贫困(弱势)群体的需求。在撰写本文时,新冠肺炎尚未在印度尼西亚得到任何控制。因此,它对经济增长、就业和福利的影响仍然不确定,因为政策讨论都是关于在被称为“新常态”的情况下,在全国范围内从病毒施加的限制中开放经济。
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引用次数: 217
Intragenerational Economic Mobility in Indonesia: A Transition from Poverty to the Middle Class in 1993–2014 印度尼西亚代际经济流动:1993-2014年从贫困向中产阶级的转变
IF 4.1 2区 经济学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2020-05-03 DOI: 10.1080/00074918.2019.1657795
T. Dartanto, F. Moeis, S. Otsubo
Economic mobility, especially through expansion of the middle class, will dominate the future of Indonesia’s development agenda. Based on data from five waves of the Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS), we found that (1) poverty decreased significantly between 1993 and 2014, from 86.1% to 20.2%, while the middle class grew by almost nine times; (2) 34.4% of the poor moved into the middle class, but 11.9% were still categorised as chronically poor; (3) 42.3% of the middle class did not move into the upper class; (4) the middle and upper classes are vulnerable and easily fall into the lower classes. Our econometric estimations confirm that the drivers of economic mobility are educational attainment, formal employment, water and electricity supply, land ownership, and health investment. These findings suggest that investment in human and physical capital are the two main strategies to expand the middle class.
经济流动性,特别是通过扩大中产阶级,将主导印尼未来的发展议程。根据印度尼西亚家庭生活调查(IFLS)的五波数据,我们发现:(1)1993年至2014年间,贫困率显著下降,从86.1%降至20.2%,而中产阶级增长了近9倍;(2) 34.4%的贫困人口进入中产阶级,但仍有11.9%的贫困人口处于长期贫困状态;(3) 42.3%的中产阶级没有进入上层社会;(4)中上层社会脆弱,容易落入下层社会。我们的计量经济学估计证实,经济流动性的驱动因素是受教育程度、正式就业、水电供应、土地所有权和卫生投资。这些发现表明,人力资本和物质资本投资是扩大中产阶级的两个主要策略。
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引用次数: 25
Estimating the Impact of Covid-19 on Poverty in Indonesia 估计新冠肺炎对印度尼西亚贫困的影响
IF 4.1 2区 经济学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2020-05-03 DOI: 10.1080/00074918.2020.1779390
A. Suryahadi, Ridho Al Izzati, D. Suryadarma
Covid-19 has infected and will continue to infect millions of people all over the world. The economic impact is predicted to be large and millions of people will be pushed into poverty. In this paper, we estimate the impact of Covid-19 on poverty in Indonesia. The economic impact is expected to be severe, reducing the economic growth rate projected for 2020 from about 5% to between 4.2% and –3.5%. We find that under the best-case scenario, the poverty rate will increase from 9.2% in September 2019 to 9.7% by the end of 2020, pushing 1.3 million more people into poverty. Under the worst-case scenario, the poverty rate will increase to 16.6%, close to the level seen in 2004 when the poverty rate was 16.7%. This means that 19.7 million more people will become poor, substantially reversing Indonesia’s progress in reducing poverty. The implication is that Indonesia will need to expand its social protection programs to assist the new poor as well as the existing poor.
Covid-19已经并将继续感染全世界数百万人。预计经济影响将是巨大的,数百万人将陷入贫困。在本文中,我们估计了Covid-19对印度尼西亚贫困的影响。预计经济影响将是严重的,2020年的经济增长率预计将从5%左右降至4.2%至-3.5%之间。我们发现,在最好的情况下,到2020年底,贫困率将从2019年9月的9.2%上升到9.7%,使130多万人陷入贫困。在最坏的情况下,贫困率将上升到16.6%,接近2004年的水平,当时贫困率为16.7%。这意味着将有1970多万人陷入贫困,大大扭转了印尼在减贫方面取得的进展。这意味着印尼将需要扩大其社会保护计划,以帮助新贫困人口和现有贫困人口。
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引用次数: 132
In Memoriam: J. B. Sumarlin (1932–2020) 纪念:J. B.苏玛林(1932-2020)
IF 4.1 2区 经济学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2020-05-03 DOI: 10.1080/00074918.2020.1798237
P. Mccawley
Johannes Baptista Sumarlin, a major economic policymaker in Indonesia for almost 30 years, died in Jakarta in early February 2020 (Gorbiano 2020). Sumarlin is not as well known as figures in the ‘B...
Johannes Baptista Sumarlin是印度尼西亚近30年的主要经济政策制定者,于2020年2月初在雅加达去世(Gorbiano 2020)。Sumarlin不像B。。。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies
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