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Credit cycles and macroprudential policies in emerging market economies 新兴市场经济体的信贷周期与宏观审慎政策
IF 8.5 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-09-25 DOI: 10.24136/oc.2022.019
J. Lazarević, Tanja Kuzman, M. Nedeljkovic
Research background: Excessive credit expansions have an important role in the generation and amplification of business cycles in emerging market (EM) economies. Macroprudential policies can be beneficial in restraining excessive credit growth and safeguarding financial stability. Despite recent theoretical advances in understanding of the benefits of macroprudential policies, empirical evidence on their effect on the credit cycle is still scarce.Purpose of the article: This paper studies the effectiveness of macroprudential measures in the sample of major EM economies focusing on the broad credit measure and using an empirical framework which aims to alleviate several concerns in the previous literature. We examine the effectiveness of four categories of measures which are granular enough to provide relevant policy perspectives, whilst mitigating data sparsity issues. By exploiting both time-series and cross-country variation in the tightness of macroprudential regulation in the construction of policy variables we also mitigate some of the common reverse causality concerns.Methods: We use panel data and employ several (fixed effect, bias corrected LSDV and dynamic interactive fixed effect) estimators to ensure that the results are not sensitive with respect to the estimation method while, together with our construction of the policy variables, alleviating other endogeneity concerns.Findings & value added: We uncover the heterogeneity in the effects of macroprudential measures on the credit cycle. While measures related to bank capital and credit activity are found to be effective in leaning-against the credit cycle, the measures targeting bank liquidity and FX exposures fail to have statistically significant effect. Our results provide the rationale for mixed evidence in the empirical literature studying the effectiveness of the broadly defined macroprudential measures. From the policy perspective, our findings provide evidence that the measures which address excessive credit expansion and strengthen the resilience of the financial system are effective in the EM economies.
研究背景:过度的信贷扩张在新兴市场经济体商业周期的产生和放大中发挥着重要作用。宏观审慎政策有利于抑制信贷过度增长和维护金融稳定。尽管最近在理解宏观审慎政策的好处方面取得了理论进展,但关于其对信贷周期影响的实证证据仍然很少。本文的目的:本文研究了主要新兴市场经济体样本中宏观审慎措施的有效性,重点是广义信贷措施,并使用了一个实证框架,旨在缓解先前文献中的一些担忧。我们研究了四类措施的有效性,这些措施足够精细,可以提供相关的政策视角,同时缓解数据稀疏性问题。通过在政策变量的构建中利用宏观审慎监管紧密性的时间序列和跨国变化,我们也减轻了一些常见的反向因果关系问题。方法:我们使用面板数据,并使用几种(固定效应、偏差校正的LSDV和动态交互固定效应)估计量,以确保结果对估计方法不敏感,同时结合我们对政策变量的构建,缓解其他内生性问题。研究结果和附加值:我们揭示了宏观审慎措施对信贷周期影响的异质性。虽然与银行资本和信贷活动相关的措施被发现在倾向于信贷周期方面是有效的,但针对银行流动性和外汇敞口的措施在统计上没有显著效果。我们的研究结果为研究广义宏观审慎措施有效性的实证文献中的混合证据提供了理论依据。从政策角度来看,我们的研究结果证明,解决过度信贷扩张和加强金融系统弹性的措施在新兴市场经济体是有效的。
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引用次数: 2
Disentangling the impact of ICT adoption on SMEs performance: the mediating roles of corpo-rate social responsibility and innovation 信息通信技术应用对中小企业绩效的影响:企业社会责任和创新的中介作用
IF 8.5 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-09-25 DOI: 10.24136/oc.2022.024
Ana León-Gómez, J. Santos‐Jaén, Daniel Ruiz-Palomo, Mercedes Palacios-Manzano
Research background: The literature on the effects of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) on performance is extensive and shows a significant positive effect. Likewise, the use of ICT to facilitate and report on Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) practices implemented by Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) contributes to improve business performance. Moreover, through innovative activities, firms also obtain competitive advantages that impact positively on their performance, even more so when they are impacted by CSR. For this reason, it is expected that the adoption of ICTs in companies through a CSR-oriented strategy will increase their impact on business performance.   Purpose of the article: This article tries to examine how ICT affects SMEs? performance through CSR and innovation.Methods: We tested our hypotheses using a sample of 2,825 Spanish SMEs and by applying a Partial Least Squares Path Modeling (PLS-PM) with a double confirmatory and predictive purpose: to identify the causal relationships between latent variables, and to evaluate the ability of the model to make predictions for individual cases.Findings & value added: The results show that CSR-oriented ICT impacts innovation by changing strategies and business model in companies. Moreover, the implementation of CSR practices gave them competitive advantages to increase their performance. We highlight how innovation gives companies greater capacity to respond to changes in their environment and how innovation positively impacts the link between CSR and performance. Finally, our research makes two significant contributions to the literature by incorporating two sequential mediating effects into the model. On the one hand, the indirect effect of ICT on innovation through CSR. On the other hand, the indirect effect of CSR on SME performance through innovation.
研究背景:关于信息通信技术(ICT)对绩效影响的文献非常广泛,并显示出显著的正向影响。同样,利用信息和通信技术促进和报告中小企业实施企业社会责任(CSR)的做法,有助于提高企业绩效。此外,通过创新活动,企业还获得了对其绩效产生积极影响的竞争优势,当企业受到企业社会责任的影响时更是如此。因此,预计通过以企业社会责任为导向的战略在公司中采用信息通信技术将增加其对业务绩效的影响。本文目的:本文试图考察信息通信技术如何影响中小企业?通过企业社会责任和创新实现绩效。方法:我们以2825家西班牙中小企业为样本,运用偏最小二乘路径模型(PLS-PM)检验了我们的假设,该模型具有双重验证性和预测性目的:确定潜在变量之间的因果关系,并评估模型对个别情况进行预测的能力。研究结果与附加值:研究结果表明,以企业社会责任为导向的信息通信技术通过改变企业的战略和商业模式来影响创新。此外,企业社会责任实践的实施给他们带来了竞争优势,以提高他们的绩效。我们强调创新如何使公司更有能力应对环境变化,以及创新如何积极影响企业社会责任与绩效之间的联系。最后,我们的研究通过将两个顺序的中介效应纳入模型,对文献做出了两个重大贡献。一方面,信息通信技术对企业社会责任创新的间接影响。另一方面,企业社会责任通过创新对中小企业绩效的间接影响。
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引用次数: 18
A review of inflation from 1906 to 2022: a comprehensive analysis of inflation studies from a global perspective 1906年至2022年通货膨胀研究回顾:全球视角下的通货膨胀研究综合分析
IF 8.5 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-09-25 DOI: 10.24136/oc.2022.018
Xindi Wang, Zeshui Xu, Xinxin Wang, M. Škare
Research background: Inflation has always been the core issue of economic research and there are many academic research achievements in this field. In recent years, global inflation has intensified, and many scholars focus on research in this field again, providing certain reference value for countries around the world to formulate corresponding macro policies.Purpose of the article: The five-year impact factors are used as the evaluation criteria in this paper, and 1,637 high-quality documents on inflation from 1906 to 2022 are collected from the Web of Science Core Collection database. Using bibliometrics, a comprehensive review of influential literature in the field of inflation is conducted to reveal the evolution and trends of the field.Methods: First, we focus on these high-quality documents about the descriptive statistical characteristics, high cited documents and high impact factor journals. Then, based on the visualization tool, the cooperative network of countries/regions, authors and institutions is depicted and the cooperative relationship between them is determined. At the same time, the most influential countries/regions, authors and institutions are identified by analyzing the citation structure. In addition, through thematic and keyword analysis, the topic hotspots and future research trends of high-quality literature in the field of inflation are deduced.Findings & value added: On the whole, the research on inflation in the United States is relatively mature, and has produced a large number of influential academic cooperation results. Finally, we have a series of discussions on the history of inflation in the United States and policy suggestions. In the future, governments of various countries, especially the United States, will still face certain challenges in how to formulate policies and measures to mitigate the impact of inflation.
研究背景:通货膨胀一直是经济学研究的核心问题,在这一领域有许多学术研究成果。近年来,全球通货膨胀加剧,许多学者再次关注这一领域的研究,为世界各国制定相应的宏观政策提供了一定的参考价值。文章目的:本文以五年影响因素为评价标准,从Web of Science核心收藏数据库中收集了1637篇关于1906年至2022年通货膨胀的高质量文献。利用文献计量学,对通货膨胀领域有影响力的文献进行了全面综述,以揭示该领域的演变和趋势。方法:首先,我们重点研究这些高质量的文献,包括描述性统计特征、高引用文献和高影响因子期刊。然后,基于可视化工具,描述了国家/地区、作者和机构的合作网络,并确定了它们之间的合作关系。同时,通过分析引文结构,确定最具影响力的国家/地区、作者和机构。此外,通过主题和关键词分析,推断出通货膨胀领域高质量文学的主题热点和未来研究趋势。研究成果与附加值:总体而言,美国对通货膨胀的研究相对成熟,并产生了大量有影响力的学术合作成果。最后,我们对美国通货膨胀的历史和政策建议进行了一系列讨论。未来,各国政府,尤其是美国政府,在如何制定政策和措施以减轻通货膨胀的影响方面,仍将面临一定的挑战。
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引用次数: 6
Financial performance and bankruptcy concerns of SMEs in their export decision 中小企业出口决策中的财务绩效和破产问题
IF 8.5 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-09-25 DOI: 10.24136/oc.2022.025
A. Ključnikov, M. Civelek, V. Krajčík, P. Novák, Michal Červinka
Research background: Due to having lack of financial power and low amount of revenues, most of SMEs? major concerns are bankruptcy and low financial performance. Those issues are risky situations for SMEs when making for their exporting activities. Therefore, depending on their performance and bankruptcy risk, they might more intensively perceive export barriers and this fact might determine their export decisions.Purpose of the article: This paper examines whether financial performance and bankruptcy concerns of SMEs affect their perceptions of export obstacles or not.Methods: This research performs random sampling method and directs an internet-mediated questionnaire to the selected respondents who are the executives of 408 Czech, Slovakian and Hungarian SMEs. To examine the influences of firm performance and bankruptcy on the perceptions of export impediments by SMEs, this paper employs Ordinal Logistic Regression Test.Findings & value added: The results show that SMEs having less healthy financial conditions less intensively perceive cultural-linguistic export barriers in comparison with SMEs having better financial performance. Moreover, firm performance is not a predictor variable in the perceptions of export costs, legislative and tax-related barriers by SMEs. On the other hand, while SMEs having more bankruptcy concerns more intensively perceive tax-related and cultural-linguistic barriers, bankruptcy concerns of SMEs do not influence their perceptions of export costs and legislative differences. Although many studies have investigated the impacts of financial conditions of SMEs on their internationalization and exporting decisions, they are isolated with only a market or only with a financial issue. The limited extents of those studies cause a partial investigation of export and financial issues of SMEs and make readers having a narrow perspective in this specific area. By focusing on various export obstacles and financial issues that SMEs face in different markets, this research offers a detailed understanding of SMEs? perceptions regarding their financial conditions and export barriers, from a comprehensive perspective. In this regard, this is the research gap that this paper aims to fill.
研究背景:中小企业由于财力不足,收入不高,大多是中小企业?主要的担忧是破产和财务表现不佳。这些问题对中小企业的出口活动来说是有风险的。因此,根据他们的业绩和破产风险,他们可能会更深入地了解出口壁垒,这一事实可能会决定他们的出口决定。文章的目的:本文考察了中小企业的财务表现和破产问题是否会影响他们对出口障碍的看法。方法:本研究采用随机抽样方法,采用互联网中介问卷对408家捷克、斯洛伐克和匈牙利中小企业的高管进行调查。为了检验企业绩效和破产对中小企业出口障碍感知的影响,本文采用有序Logistic回归检验。研究结果与附加值:与财务绩效较好的中小企业相比,财务状况较差的中小企业对文化语言出口障碍的感知不那么强烈。此外,在中小企业对出口成本、立法和税收相关壁垒的看法中,企业业绩并不是一个预测变量。另一方面,虽然有更多破产问题的中小企业更强烈地感知到与税收和文化语言障碍,但中小企业的破产问题不会影响他们对出口成本和立法差异的感知。尽管许多研究调查了中小企业的财务状况对其国际化和出口决策的影响,但它们只与一个市场或一个财务问题隔绝。这些研究的范围有限,导致对中小企业的出口和金融问题进行了部分调查,并使读者对这一特定领域的看法狭隘。通过关注中小企业在不同市场面临的各种出口障碍和财务问题,本研究对中小企业有了详细的了解?从全面的角度看待它们的金融状况和出口壁垒。在这方面,这是本文旨在填补的研究空白。
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引用次数: 13
Generating loyalty towards fast fashion stores: a cross-generational approach based on store attributes and socio-environmental responsibility 培养对快时尚商店的忠诚度:基于商店属性和社会环境责任的跨代方法
IF 8.5 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-09-25 DOI: 10.24136/oc.2022.026
Dan-Cristian Dabija, Veronica Cȃmpian, Anna-Rebeka Pop, R. Băbuț
Research background: Faced with multiple media scandals concerning the pollution resulting from manufacturing activities, and encouraging the overconsumption of clothing, international fast fashion retailers have often had to resort to the elaboration and implementation of sustainable strategies aimed at environmental protection and reducing resource consumption. Generating customer satisfaction and loyalty depends increasingly on the extent to which retailers manage to employ socio-environmental responsibility besides the traditional retail store attributes.The purpose of this article: The objective of the paper is to evaluate the influence of consumer-oriented store attributes in generating satisfaction and loyalty towards the fast fashion store, highlighting the influence of socio-environmental responsibility on the two constructs.Methods: Based on the literature review, a conceptual model considering the effects of stores? attributes on store satisfaction and store loyalty and influenced by socio-environmental responsibility is proposed. Data were collected with the help of face-to-face administrated questionnaires before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in an emerging market (Romania). The data were analyzed via structural equation modeling in SmartPLS, for the three considered consumer generations: Generation X, Millennials and Generation Z.Findings & value added: For all consumer generations, all store attributes contribute to the direct generation of fast fashion store satisfaction and store loyalty; nevertheless, the intensity varies in levels of significance. Socio-environmental responsibility does not significantly determine store satisfaction, but does have a strong influence on fast fashion store loyalty. The results detailed according to the generations indicate a similar situation: each store attribute influences the satisfaction of one or other generation, apart from socio-environmental responsibility. This work makes an essential contribution to the extension of the generational theory, highlighting the various individualities, perceptions, and behaviors. This cross-generational research broadens knowledge on how different consumer generations behave when shopping from fast fashion stores. The research also extends the S-O-R model, which is used to understand the relationship between store attributes (stimulus), consumer satisfaction (organism), and consumer loyalty (response) towards fast fashion stores.
研究背景:面对制造业活动造成的污染和鼓励服装过度消费的多起媒体丑闻,国际快时尚零售商往往不得不制定和实施旨在保护环境和减少资源消耗的可持续战略。产生客户满意度和忠诚度越来越取决于零售商在多大程度上除了传统的零售店属性外,还能够运用社会环境责任。本文的目的:本文的目的是评估以消费者为导向的商店属性对快速时尚商店产生满意度和忠诚度的影响,强调社会环境责任对这两个结构的影响。方法:在文献综述的基础上,建立一个考虑商店效应的概念模型?提出了受社会环境责任影响的商店满意度和商店忠诚度的属性。在一个新兴市场(罗马尼亚)爆发新冠肺炎大流行之前,通过面对面管理问卷收集了数据。数据通过SmartPLS中的结构方程模型进行分析,涉及三代消费者:X世代、千禧一代和Z世代。研究结果和附加值:对于所有消费者世代,所有商店属性都有助于直接产生快时尚商店满意度和商店忠诚度;然而,强度在显著性水平上有所不同。社会环境责任并不能显著决定商店的满意度,但对快时尚商店的忠诚度有很大影响。根据几代人的详细结果表明了类似的情况:除了社会环境责任之外,每个商店属性都会影响一代或另一代人的满意度。这部作品对世代理论的延伸做出了重要贡献,突出了各种个性、感知和行为。这项跨代研究拓宽了不同消费者世代在快时尚商店购物时的行为。该研究还扩展了S-O-R模型,该模型用于理解商店属性(刺激)、消费者满意度(有机体)和消费者对快时尚商店的忠诚度(反应)之间的关系。
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引用次数: 10
Multifrequency-based non-linear approach to analyzing implied volatility transmission across global financial markets 基于多频率的非线性方法分析全球金融市场隐含波动率的传递
IF 8.5 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-09-25 DOI: 10.24136/oc.2022.021
E. Boateng, Emmanuel Asafo-Adjei, J. Gatsi, Ș. C. Gherghina, L. Simionescu
Research background: The contagious impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has heightened financial market's volatility, nonlinearity, asymmetric and nonstationary dynamics. Hence, the existing relationship among financial assets may have been altered. Moreover, the level of investor risk aversion and market opportunities could also alter in the pandemic. Predictably, investors in the heat of the moment are concerned about minimizing losses. In order to determine the level of hedge risks between implied volatilities in the COVID-19 pandemic through information flow, it is required to take into account the increased vagueness of economic projections as well as the increased uncertainty in asset values as a result of the pandemic.Purpose of the article: The study aims to examine the transmission of information between the VIX-implied volatility index for S&P 500 and fifteen other implied volatility indices in the COVID-19 pandemic.Methods: We relied on daily changes in the VIX and fifteen other implied volatility indices from commodities, currencies, and stocks. The study employed the improved complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise which is in line with the heterogeneous expectations of market participants to denoise the data and extract intrinsic mode functions (IMFs). Subsequently, we clustered the IMFs based on common features into high, low, and medium frequencies. The analysis was carried out using Rényi transfer entropy (RTE), which allowed for the evaluation of both linear and non-linear, as well as varied distributions of the market dynamics.Findings & value added: Findings from the RTE revealed a bi-directional flow of negative information amid the VIX and each of the volatility indices, particularly in the long term. We found this behavior of the markets to be consistent at varying levels of investors' risk aversion. The findings help investors with their portfolio strategies in the time of the pandemic, which has resulted in fluctuating levels of risk aversion. Our findings characterize global financial markets to be ?non-linear heterogeneous evolutionary systems?. The results also lend support to the emerging delayed volatility of market competitiveness and external shocks hypothesis.
研究背景:新冠肺炎疫情的传染性影响加剧了金融市场的波动性、非线性、非对称性和非平稳性。因此,金融资产之间现有的关系可能已经改变。此外,投资者的风险规避水平和市场机会也可能在疫情中发生变化。不出所料,处于最热时刻的投资者关心的是将损失降至最低。为了通过信息流确定新冠肺炎疫情隐含波动之间的对冲风险水平,需要考虑到经济预测的模糊性增加以及疫情导致的资产价值的不确定性增加。文章目的:本研究旨在研究新冠肺炎大流行中标准普尔500指数的波动率波动率指数与其他15个隐含波动率指数之间的信息传递。方法:我们依赖于商品、货币和股票的波动率指数和其他15个隐含波动率指数的每日变化。该研究采用了具有自适应噪声的改进的完全集成经验模式分解,符合市场参与者对数据去噪和提取固有模式函数的异质期望。随后,我们根据共同特征将IMF分为高频、低频和中频。该分析使用Rényi传递熵(RTE)进行,该熵允许评估线性和非线性以及市场动态的不同分布。调查结果和附加值:RTE的调查结果显示,波动率指数和每种波动率指数之间存在双向负面信息流动,尤其是在长期内。我们发现,在不同程度的投资者避险情绪下,市场的这种行为是一致的。这些发现有助于投资者在疫情期间制定投资组合策略,疫情导致风险规避水平波动。我们的研究结果表明,全球金融市场是什么样的?非线性异质进化系统?。研究结果也支持了新兴的市场竞争力延迟波动和外部冲击假说。
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引用次数: 5
Enterprise digital transformation and debt financing cost in China?s A-share listed companies 中国企业数字化转型与债务融资成本?s A股上市公司
IF 8.5 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-09-25 DOI: 10.24136/oc.2022.023
C. Sun, Zixin Zhang, M. Vochozka, I. Vozňáková
Research background: The rapid development of digital economy has set off a new wave of enterprise reform. Developing the digital economy is not only an urgent requirement of the current situation, but also an important way to meet the people's better life.Purpose of the article: This paper attempts to reveal the important role of the development of digital technology on the debt financing cost of micro enterprises, and provide micro evidence for the integration of digital economy and real economy. At the same time, this paper wants to provide relevant guidance for formulating digital related policies and reducing the financing cost of the real economy.Methods: Taking China?s A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2020 as a sample, this paper empirically tests the impact of enterprise digital transformation on debt financing cost and its mechanism. In the robustness test, this paper uses the measures of changing independent variables and dependent variables, instrumental variable method and quantile regression method. In the mechanism test, this paper uses the intermediary effect model. In the further study, this paper uses the method of group regression.Findings & value added: The study finds that the digital transformation of enterprises significantly reduces the cost of debt financing. Mechanism tests show that the role of enterprise digital transformation in reducing debt financing costs is mainly realized by reducing information asymmetry and alleviating agency problems. Further tests show that the relationship between enterprise digital transformation and debt financing cost is affected by the degree of market competition, whether it is a high-tech enterprise and audit quality. When the degree of market competition is high, the enterprise is a high-tech one, or it is audited by the four major international accounting firms, the effect of enterprise digital transformation on the reduction of debt financing cost is more significant. The method used in this paper is also applicable to the study of other economic management problems. This paper proves a positive significance of digital transformation, which is conducive to promoting the digital transformation of enterprises. Especially for those enterprises in non-high-tech industries, they should speed up the pace. At the same time, this paper has a certain guiding role for the introduction and implementation of policies to encourage digital transformation.
研究背景:数字经济的快速发展掀起了企业改革的新浪潮。发展数字经济不仅是当前形势的迫切要求,也是满足人民美好生活的重要途径。本文旨在揭示数字技术的发展对微型企业债务融资成本的重要作用,为数字经济与实体经济的融合提供微观证据。同时,本文希望为制定数字相关政策、降低实体经济融资成本提供相关指导。方法:拿中国?以2007-2020年A股上市公司为样本,实证检验了企业数字化转型对债务融资成本的影响及其机制。在稳健性检验中,本文采用了变自变量和因变量的测度、工具变量法和分位数回归法。在机理测试中,本文采用了中介效应模型。在进一步的研究中,本文采用了群回归的方法。研究结果与附加值:研究发现,企业数字化转型显著降低了债务融资成本。机制测试表明,企业数字化转型降低债务融资成本的作用主要通过减少信息不对称和缓解代理问题来实现。进一步的测试表明,企业数字化转型与债务融资成本的关系受市场竞争程度、是否为高新技术企业以及审计质量的影响。当市场竞争程度较高,企业是高科技企业,或者经过四大国际会计师事务所审计时,企业数字化转型对降低债务融资成本的作用更为显著。本文所用的方法也适用于其他经济管理问题的研究。本文论证了数字化转型的积极意义,有利于推动企业数字化转型。特别是对于那些非高科技行业的企业,他们应该加快步伐。同时,本文对鼓励数字化转型政策的出台和实施具有一定的指导作用。
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引用次数: 21
Competitiveness, fiscal policy and corruption: evidence from Central and Eastern European countries 竞争力、财政政策和腐败:来自中欧和东欧国家的证据
IF 8.5 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-09-25 DOI: 10.24136/oc.2022.020
Ramona Ţigănaşu, G. Pascariu, D. Lupu
Research background: The transformations induced by global challenges call for new approaches towards competitiveness and thus require a consistent rethinking of strategies and mechanisms so that they could be better adapted to the constantly changing context. Prior to the European Union (EU) accession, the Central and Eastern European (CEE) states began a broad process of economic reforms, including trade liberalization, mass privatization, exchange rate liberalization, all of which led to a wider opening to new markets, the creation of new opportunities for production and to ensuring the competitiveness of companies on foreign markets. By far, the most important step in the post-communist period was joining the EU, achieved after 2004. Over time, these states have faced, on the one hand, issues related to addressing systemic vulnerabilities, and on the other hand, finding the most appropriate measures to induce competitiveness. The influence of public policies on competitiveness is still an issue that needs to be debated, our study proposing to examine the reaction of external competitiveness to the increase of government spending and corruption.Purpose of the article: The aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of fiscal policies and corruption on the external competitiveness of the eleven countries from Eastern Europe (Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia) for the period 1995?2020. The choice of this time interval is to better capture the trinomial relationship between competitiveness, fiscal policy and corruption before and after the process of integration of the CEE states into the EU.Methods: The methodology chosen is based on ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) with structural breaks, the period taken into account being 1995?2020. The Unit root  test  of  augmented Dickey?Fuller ADF  (2016) was used  to  assess  the  time  series  stationarity. The test developed by Bai and Perron (2003) is applied to detect structural breaks, by resorting to the LM test. The tests for the cointegration between the considered variables, using the ARDL model, proposed by Pesaran et al. (2001), were also part of the research. The causality test of Granger et al. (2000) was used to assess the conditionality between the indicators. By applying these methods, it was highlighted that, especially after 2007, in the states under analysis, expansionary fiscal policies have led to internal devaluations of the currency, which ultimately increased external competitiveness, measured as real effective exchange rate. Instead, corruption has a negative impact on competitiveness.Findings & value added: The obtained results point out the relationship between competitiveness, fiscal policy and corruption in CEE countries. In the case of those that have a high competitiveness, even if there are large government expenditures, there is also an economic environment conducive to the implementation of meas
研究背景:全球挑战引发的变革需要对竞争力采取新的方法,因此需要不断反思战略和机制,以便更好地适应不断变化的环境。在加入欧洲联盟之前,中欧和东欧国家开始了广泛的经济改革进程,包括贸易自由化、大规模私有化、汇率自由化,所有这些都导致了对新市场的更广泛开放,创造了新的生产机会,并确保了公司在外国市场上的竞争力。到目前为止,后共产主义时期最重要的一步是在2004年之后加入欧盟。随着时间的推移,这些国家一方面面临着与解决系统脆弱性有关的问题,另一方面也面临着寻找最合适的措施来提高竞争力的问题。公共政策对竞争力的影响仍然是一个需要讨论的问题,我们的研究建议考察外部竞争力对政府支出增加和腐败的反应。文章的目的:本文的目的是分析1995年期间财政政策和腐败对东欧11个国家(保加利亚、克罗地亚、捷克、爱沙尼亚、匈牙利、拉脱维亚、立陶宛、波兰、罗马尼亚、斯洛伐克和斯洛文尼亚)的外部竞争力的影响?2020.选择这个时间间隔是为了更好地捕捉中东欧国家融入欧盟前后竞争力、财政政策和腐败之间的三项关系?2020.扩充Dickey的单位根测试?Fuller ADF(2016)用于评估时间序列平稳性。Bai和Perron(2003)开发的测试通过LM测试来检测结构断裂。使用Pesaran等人(2001)提出的ARDL模型对所考虑的变量之间的协整进行检验也是研究的一部分。Granger等人(2000)的因果关系检验用于评估指标之间的条件性。通过应用这些方法,人们强调,特别是在2007年之后,在所分析的州,扩张性财政政策导致了货币的内部贬值,最终提高了以实际有效汇率衡量的外部竞争力。相反,腐败对竞争力产生了负面影响。研究结果和附加值:研究结果指出了中东欧国家竞争力、财政政策和腐败之间的关系。就那些具有高竞争力的国家而言,即使有大量的政府支出,也有利于实施大规模产生附加值的措施的经济环境。相反,在腐败率高的国家,由于这种现象造成的负面影响,政府财政政策对竞争力的影响减少了。我们的研究至少对文献有两个贡献。首先,研究表明,公共支出的增长如何通过实际汇率影响中东欧经济体的竞争力。第二,它考虑到适用于东方国家的腐败现象,强调这些经济体的外部竞争力因腐败的表现而下降。
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引用次数: 18
A new perspective of the day-of-the-week effect on Bitcoin returns: evidence from an event study hourly approach 对比特币收益每日影响的新视角:来自每小时事件研究方法的证据
IF 8.5 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-09-25 DOI: 10.24136/oc.2022.022
José Luis Miralles‐Quirós, María del Mar Miralles-Quirós
Research background: A current strand of the financial literature is focusing on detecting inefficiencies, such as the day-of-the-week effect, in the cryptocurrency market. However, these studies are not considering that there are no daily closes in this market, and it is possible to trade cryptocurrencies on a continuous basis. This fact may have led to biases in previous empirical results.Purpose of the article: We propose to analyse the day-of-the-week effect on the Bitcoin from an alternative perspective where each hourly data in a day is considered an event. Focusing on that objective, we employ hourly closing prices for Bitcoin which are taken from the Kraken exchange, one of the world leading exchanges and trading platforms in the cryptocurrency markets, for the period spanning from January 2016 to December 2021.Methods: Contrary to the previous empirical evidence, we do not calculate daily returns, but rather the first stage of our proposed approach is devoted to analysing the hourly mean returns for each of the 24 hours of the day for each day of the week. We look for statistically significant hourly mean returns that could advance the importance of the hourly differentiation in the Bitcoin market. In a second stage, we calculate different post-event cumulative returns which are defined as the change in log prices over a time interval. Finally, we propose different investment strategies simply based on the significant hourly mean returns we obtain and we evaluate their performance in terms of the Sharpe ratio.Findings & value added: We contribute to the debate about the degree of Bitcoin?s market efficiency by providing an alternative methodology based on an event study hourly approach. Furthermore, we provide evidence that by investing in different post-event hourly windows it is possible to outperform the classic buy-and-hold strategy.
研究背景:目前的一系列金融文献都集中在检测加密货币市场的低效率,例如星期几效应。然而,这些研究并没有考虑到这个市场没有每日收盘,并且有可能持续交易加密货币。这一事实可能导致了先前实证结果的偏差。文章的目的:我们建议从另一个角度分析比特币的周中效应,即一天中的每小时数据都被视为一个事件。为了实现这一目标,我们采用了比特币的每小时收盘价,这些收盘价取自2016年1月至2021年12月期间世界领先的加密货币市场交易所和交易平台之一Kraken交易所。方法:与之前的经验证据相反,我们不计算每日回报,相反,我们提出的方法的第一阶段致力于分析一周中每一天每天24小时的每小时平均回报率。我们寻找具有统计意义的每小时平均回报,这可能会提高比特币市场每小时差异化的重要性。在第二阶段,我们计算不同的事件后累积回报,这些回报被定义为日志价格在一段时间内的变化。最后,我们简单地根据我们获得的显著小时平均回报提出了不同的投资策略,并根据夏普比率评估了它们的表现。调查结果和附加值:我们参与了关于比特币程度的辩论?通过提供一种基于每小时事件研究方法的替代方法来提高市场效率。此外,我们提供的证据表明,通过投资不同的事后小时窗口,有可能跑赢经典的买入和持有策略。
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引用次数: 0
The National Innovation System in a catching-up country: empirical evidence based on micro data of a Triple Helix in Poland 追赶型国家的国家创新体系:基于波兰三重螺旋微观数据的经验证据
IF 8.5 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-06-30 DOI: 10.24136/oc.2022.016
A. Świadek, Piotr Dzikowski, Jadwiga Gorączkowska, M. Tomaszewski
Research background: There are two main directions for the research of the national innovation system (NIS): the international comparison of macro data from national statistic offices or specific micro research restricted mostly to analysing selected issues. There is a lack of empirical studies regarding the national innovation system as a whole based on micro raw data and using statistical models.Purpose of the article: To identify and evaluate the impact of the triple helix (an input and output approach) on the NIS in Poland, including internal interactions between industry, science and government.Methods: A questionnaire surveys were conducted by the authors over the past five  years in 6,284 manufacturing enterprises. The multifactor stepwise logistics regression forward was used to evaluate what, where and how effectively the NIS institutions in catching-up and medium-sized countries such as Poland are working.Findings & value added: The NIS of Poland is a complicated and non-mature system. Some parts of the network are effective, while others are not. It is noted that cooperation between enterprises stimulates innovation to a greater extent than cooperation with scientific institutions and public administration. The vertical supply chain is the main driver of NIS in Poland. Domestic scientific institutions have an impact that is often short-term, fragmented, and non-continuous, though it can be strong from time to time. Strangely, organizations with low knowledge potential support industry innovation activity more efficiently and in a more organised way than science institutes, excluding foreign ones. For catching-up countries, this is an important bridging of the knowledge gap - it turns out that the quantity and quality of domestic knowledge in the national innovation system is inefficient. Scientific institutions need to achieve sufficient critical mass to stimulate innovative activity. The value of the conclusions is underlined by the fact that the analyses were based on micro data, which allowed to capture the relationships between the different elements of the triple helix.
研究背景:国家创新体系的研究有两个主要方向:国家统计局宏观数据的国际比较,或主要局限于分析选定问题的具体微观研究。缺乏基于微观原始数据和使用统计模型对整个国家创新体系进行实证研究。本文的目的:确定和评估三螺旋(一种输入和输出方法)对波兰NIS的影响,包括工业、科学和政府之间的内部互动。方法:采用问卷调查方法,对6284家制造企业进行调查。多因素逐步物流回归法用于评估国家创新体系在追赶和中等规模国家(如波兰)的机构在什么、在哪里以及如何有效地开展工作。调查结果和附加值:波兰国家情报系统是一个复杂而不成熟的系统。网络的某些部分是有效的,而其他部分则不然。值得注意的是,企业之间的合作比与科学机构和公共行政部门的合作更能刺激创新。垂直供应链是波兰NIS的主要驱动力。国内科学机构的影响往往是短期的、分散的和非连续的,尽管有时会很强。奇怪的是,知识潜力低的组织比科学机构(不包括外国机构)更有效、更有组织地支持行业创新活动。对于追赶的国家来说,这是弥合知识差距的重要桥梁——事实证明,国家创新体系中国内知识的数量和质量都是低效的。科学机构需要达到足够的临界质量来刺激创新活动。这些分析是基于微观数据的,这一事实突显了这些结论的价值,这些数据可以捕捉到三螺旋不同元素之间的关系。
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引用次数: 3
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Oeconomia Copernicana
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