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Corrected Triple Correction Method, CNN and Transfer Learning for Prediction the Realized Volatility of Bitcoin and E-Mini S&P500 预测比特币和 E-Mini S&P500 实际波动率的修正三重校正法、CNN 和迁移学习法
IF 0.7 Q2 MATHEMATICS Pub Date : 2024-07-19 DOI: 10.1134/s1995080224600705
V. A. Manevich

Abstract

Compares ARMA models, boosting, neural network models, HAR_RV models and proposes a new method for predicting one day ahead realized volatility of financial series. HAR_RV models are taken as compared classical volatility prediction models. In addition, the phenomenon of transfer learning for boosting and neural network models is investigated. Bitcoin and E-mini S&P500 are chosen as examples. The realized volatility is calculated based on intraday (intraday—24 hours) data. The calculation is based on the closing values of the internal five-minute intervals. Comparisons are made both within and between the two intervals. The intervals considered are January 1, 2018–January 1, 2022 and January 1, 2018–April 2, 2023. Since there were structural changes in the markets during these intervals, the models are estimated in sliding windows of 399 days length. For each time series, we compare three-parameter enumeration boosting, about 10 different neural network architectures, ARMA models, the newly proposed CTCM method, and various training transfer and training sample expansion options. It is shown that ARMA and HAR_RV models are generally inferior to other listed methods and models. The CTCM model and neural networks of CNN architecture are the most suitable for financial time series forecasting and show the best results. Although transfer learning shows no improvement in terms of forecast precision and yields little decline. It requires more extensive and detailed study. The smallest MAPEs for Bitcoin and E-mini S&P500 realized volatility forecasts are achieved by the newly proposed CTCM model and are 21.075%, 25.311% on the first interval and 21.996%, 26.549% on the second interval, respectively.

摘要比较了 ARMA 模型、boosting 模型、神经网络模型、HAR_RV 模型,并提出了一种预测金融序列提前一天已实现波动率的新方法。HAR_RV 模型是与经典波动率预测模型相比较的。此外,还研究了提升模型和神经网络模型的迁移学习现象。以比特币和 E-mini S&P500 指数为例。已实现波动率根据盘中(盘中 24 小时)数据计算。计算基于内部五分钟间隔的收盘值。在两个区间内和区间之间进行比较。考虑的区间为 2018 年 1 月 1 日至 2022 年 1 月 1 日和 2018 年 1 月 1 日至 2023 年 4 月 2 日。由于在这些区间内市场发生了结构性变化,因此模型以 399 天的滑动窗口进行估计。对于每个时间序列,我们比较了三参数枚举提升、约 10 种不同的神经网络架构、ARMA 模型、新提出的 CTCM 方法以及各种训练转移和训练样本扩展选项。结果表明,ARMA 和 HAR_RV 模型总体上不如其他列出的方法和模型。CTCM 模型和 CNN 架构的神经网络最适合用于金融时间序列预测,并显示出最佳效果。尽管迁移学习在预测精度方面没有任何改进,而且下降幅度很小。这需要更广泛、更详细的研究。新提出的 CTCM 模型对比特币和 E-mini S&P500 已实现波动率预测的 MAPE 最小,在第一个区间分别为 21.075%、25.311%,在第二个区间分别为 21.996%、26.549%。
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引用次数: 0
Concentration of Measure and Global Optimization of Bayesian Multilayer Perceptron. Part I 贝叶斯多层感知器的集中测量和全局优化。第一部分
IF 0.7 Q2 MATHEMATICS Pub Date : 2024-07-19 DOI: 10.1134/s1995080224600651
B. K. Temyanov, R. R. Nigmatullin

Abstract

We present the description of a quasi-spherical coordinate system that is introduced in a space of parameters of a multilayer perceptron with ReLU and Leaky ReLU activation functions. In this instance, a regression loss function that is given in these coordinates becomes the sum of functions that depend on a set of functions defined on a sphere and a quasi-radial coordinate. Conditions for a concentration of measure are satisfied for the functions on the sphere. As a number of parameters tends to infinity, these criteria cause the loss function to concentrate toward a quasi-radially symmetric function.

摘要 我们介绍了一个准球面坐标系,该坐标系被引入到具有 ReLU 和 Leaky ReLU 激活函数的多层感知器的参数空间中。在这种情况下,在这些坐标系中给出的回归损失函数就变成了取决于一组定义在球面和准径向坐标上的函数的总和。球面上的函数满足了度量集中的条件。当参数数趋于无穷大时,这些条件会导致损失函数向准径向对称函数集中。
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引用次数: 0
Normal Extensions of Differential Operators for Degenerate First-order 畸变一阶微分算子的正态扩展
IF 0.7 Q2 MATHEMATICS Pub Date : 2024-07-19 DOI: 10.1134/s1995080224600882
M. Sertbaş, F. Yılmaz

Abstract

In this paper, it is investigated that necessary and sufficient conditions for a minimal operator defined by a degenerate first-order differential operator expression in the Hilbert space (L_{2}(H,(a,b)),,a,binmathbb{R}) to be formally normal. Also, all normal extensions of the minimal operator are given with their domains. Moreover, the spectrum set of these normal extensions is given through the family of evolution operators.

摘要 本文研究了在希尔伯特空间 (L_{2}(H,(a,b)),,a,binmathbb{R})中由退化一阶微分算子表达式定义的极小算子形式上正则的必要条件和充分条件。同时,最小算子的所有正则扩展都给出了它们的域。此外,通过演化算子族给出了这些常扩展的谱集。
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引用次数: 0
Delay in Solving Autonomous Singularly Perturbed Equations Near an Unstable Equilibrium Position 在不稳定平衡位置附近求解自主奇异扰动方程的延迟
IF 0.7 Q2 MATHEMATICS Pub Date : 2024-07-19 DOI: 10.1134/s1995080224600791
K. S. Alybaev, A. M. Juraev, M. N. Nurmatova

Abstract

This paper considers an autonomous system of singularly perturbed equations of fast variables, consisting of (2n) first-order equations and one equation of a slow variable. The first approximation matrix of singularly perturbed equations has pairwise complex conjugate eigenvalues. The system has an equilibrium position, and the stability of the equilibrium position is lost by all eigenvalues at some value of the slow variable. It is proven that the solution of a singularly perturbed equation remains near an unstable equilibrium position during a finite time. Thus, the solution is delayed near the unstable equilibrium position. Early works considered cases when the stability of the equilibrium position is lost by one pair of complex conjugate eigenvalues.

摘要 本文考虑了一个由 (2n) 个一阶方程和一个慢变量方程组成的快变量奇异扰动方程自治系统。奇异扰动方程的第一近似矩阵具有成对的复共轭特征值。系统有一个平衡位置,在慢变量的某个值上,所有特征值都会失去平衡位置的稳定性。事实证明,奇异扰动方程的解会在有限时间内保持在不稳定平衡位置附近。因此,解在不稳定平衡位置附近被延迟。早期的研究考虑了一对复共轭特征值失去平衡位置稳定性的情况。
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引用次数: 0
Determining a Source Function in the Mixed Parabolic–Hyperbolic Equation with Characteristic Type Change Line 确定具有特征类型变化线的抛物线-双曲混合方程中的源函数
IF 0.7 Q2 MATHEMATICS Pub Date : 2024-07-19 DOI: 10.1134/s1995080224600584
D. K. Durdiev, D. A. Toshev, H. H. Turdiev

Abstract

In this paper, we study the direct and inverse problems for a model equation of a mixed parabolic-hyperbolic type. In the direct problem, an analog of the Tricomi problem for this equation with a characteristic line of type change is considered. The unknown of the inverse problem is the y-dependent source function of the parabolic equation. To determine it with respect to the solution defined in the parabolic part of the domain, an overdetermination at the point (x=x_{0}) for (y>0) condition is specified. Local theorems on the unique solvability of the problems posed in the sense of the classical solution are proved.

摘要 本文研究了抛物-双曲混合型模型方程的直接问题和逆问题。在直接问题中,我们考虑了该方程的 Tricomi 问题的类似问题,其特征线类型发生了变化。逆问题的未知数是抛物线方程的 y 依赖源函数。为了确定它与定义在抛物线部分域中的解的关系,在点(x=x_{0})处指定了一个(y>0)条件的过度确定。证明了在经典解的意义上所提出问题的唯一可解性的局部定理。
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引用次数: 0
A Large-update Primal-dual Interior-point Algorithm for Convex Quadratic Optimization Based on a New Bi-parameterized Bi-hyperbolic Kernel Function 基于新的双参数化双双曲核函数的凸二次方优化大更新原点-双内部点算法
IF 0.7 Q2 MATHEMATICS Pub Date : 2024-07-19 DOI: 10.1134/s1995080224600560
Youssra Bouhenache, Wided Chikouche, Imene Touil

Abstract

We present a polynomial-time primal-dual interior-point algorithm (IPA) for solving convex quadratic optimization (CQO) problems, based on a bi-parameterized bi-hyperbolic kernel function (KF). The growth term is a combination of the classical quadratic term and a hyperbolic one depending on a parameter (pin[0,1],) while the barrier term is hyperbolic and depends on a parameter (qgeqfrac{1}{2}sinh 2.) Using some simple analysis tools, we prove with a special choice of the parameter (q,) that the worst-case iteration bound for the new corresponding algorithm is (textbf{O}big{(}sqrt{n}log nlogfrac{n}{epsilon}big{)}) iterations for large-update methods. This improves the result obtained in (Optimization 70 (8), 1703–1724 (2021)) for CQO problems and matches the currently best-known iteration bound for large-update primal-dual interior-point methods (IPMs). Numerical tests show that the parameter (p) influences also the computational behavior of the algorithm although the theoretical iteration bound does not depends on this parameter. To our knowledge, this is the first bi-parameterized bi-hyperbolic KF-based IPM introduced for CQO problems, and the first KF that incorporates a hyperbolic function in its growth term while all KFs existing in the literature have a polynomial growth term exepct the KFs proposed in (Optimization 67 (10), 1605–1630 (2018)) and (J. Optim. Theory Appl. 178, 935–949 (2018)) which have a trigonometric growth term.

摘要 我们提出了一种基于双参数化双双曲核函数(KF)的多项式时间原始双内点算法(IPA),用于求解凸二次优化(CQO)问题。增长项是经典二次项和双曲项的组合,取决于一个参数(pin[0,1]),而障碍项是双曲项,取决于一个参数(qgeqfrac{1}{2}sinh 2.使用一些简单的分析工具,我们通过参数 (q,)的特殊选择证明,对于大更新方法,新的相应算法的最坏情况迭代约束是 (textbf{O}big{(}sqrt{n}log nlogfrac{n}{epsilon}big{)}) 次迭代。这改进了《优化》(Optimization 70 (8), 1703-1724 (2021))中针对 CQO 问题得到的结果,并与目前已知的大更新原始双内点法(IPMs)的迭代约束相匹配。数值测试表明,虽然理论迭代约束并不取决于参数 (p),但参数 (p)也会影响算法的计算行为。据我们所知,这是第一个针对 CQO 问题提出的基于双参数化双双曲 KF 的 IPM,也是第一个在其增长项中包含双曲函数的 KF,而文献中现有的所有 KF 都有一个多项式增长项,除了在(Optimization 67 (10), 1605-1630 (2018))和(J. Optim.Theory Appl. 178, 935-949 (2018))中提出的 KF 具有三角增长项。
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引用次数: 0
A Note on Class of Weibull–Pareto Distribution 关于 Weibull-Pareto 分布类别的说明
IF 0.7 Q2 MATHEMATICS Pub Date : 2024-05-14 DOI: 10.1134/s1995080224600213
Adil Rashid, Zahoor Ahmad, Aafaq A. Rather, Irfan Ali

Abstract

This paper provides a lucid note on the class of Weibull–Pareto distribution (NWPD) used to denote different parametric models. We briefly discussed and commented on these models’ uniqueness and proposed alternative definitions. In particular, we concluded that the NWPD introduced by Nasiru and Luguterah (2015) needs to be more balanced, even though it does not exist. More precisely, the NWPD by Nasiru and Luguterah is identifiable with a two-parameter Weibull distribution.

摘要 本文对用于表示不同参数模型的魏布尔-帕雷托分布(NWPD)类作了清晰的说明。我们简要讨论并评论了这些模型的唯一性,并提出了替代定义。特别是,我们得出结论,Nasiru 和 Luguterah(2015 年)引入的 NWPD 需要更加平衡,尽管它并不存在。更确切地说,Nasiru 和 Luguterah 提出的 NWPD 可与双参数 Weibull 分布相识别。
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引用次数: 0
Heterogeneity Measure in Meta-analysis without Study-specific Variance Information 没有特定研究方差信息的 Meta 分析中的异质性测量方法
IF 0.7 Q2 MATHEMATICS Pub Date : 2024-05-14 DOI: 10.1134/s1995080224600262
P. Sangnawakij, R. Sittimongkol

Abstract

Assessing heterogeneity between the independent studies in a meta-analysis plays a critical role in quantifying the amount of dispersion. The well-known Higgins’ I2 statistic has been used most often for measuring heterogeneity. However, the problem of the within-study variances involved in this measure is discussed, which leads to misinterpretation. Alternatively, the between-study coefficient of variation, the ratio of the standard deviation of the random effects to the effect, is of interest. This current work is motivated by meta-analytic data on continuous outcomes reported only the sample means and sample sizes. No sampling variance estimate is available in the studies. In such a case, we introduce the mean difference estimator based on the profile likelihood and bootstrap methods and propose the coefficient of variation estimator for measuring the heterogeneity of the mean differences. The statistical power of the coefficient of variation is determined based on simulations. The results indicate that the estimated between-study coefficient of variation derived from maximum profile likelihood estimation has a lower bias than that obtained from bootstrap estimation. The Wald-type confidence interval using variance estimation derived from the delta method provides a suitable coverage probability and has a short length interval.

摘要 在荟萃分析中,评估独立研究之间的异质性对于量化分散程度起着至关重要的作用。众所周知的 Higgins I2 统计量最常用于测量异质性。然而,该统计量所涉及的研究内方差问题会导致误读。另外,研究间变异系数(随机效应的标准差与效应之比)也很值得关注。目前这项工作的动力来自于只报告了样本平均值和样本大小的连续结果元分析数据。这些研究没有提供抽样方差估计值。在这种情况下,我们引入了基于轮廓似然法和引导法的均值差异估计器,并提出了变异系数估计器来测量均值差异的异质性。通过模拟确定了变异系数的统计能力。结果表明,通过最大轮廓似然估计得出的研究间变异系数比通过自举估计得出的变异系数偏差更小。利用德尔塔法进行方差估计得出的 Wald 型置信区间提供了合适的覆盖概率,且置信区间长度较短。
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引用次数: 0
Mathematical Model for Dynamic Adsorption with Immiscible Multiphase Flows in Three-dimensional Porous Media 三维多孔介质中不相溶多相流的动态吸附数学模型
IF 0.7 Q2 MATHEMATICS Pub Date : 2024-05-14 DOI: 10.1134/s1995080224600134
T. R. Zakirov, O. S. Zhuchkova, M. G. Khramchenkov

Abstract

In this paper, we present the mathematical model describing the dynamic adsorption processes in three-dimensional porous media. The novelty of this model lies in the ability to study the mass transfer processes with immiscible multiphase flows in porous media. The governing equations describing fluid flow and convective-diffusion of the active component are based on the lattice Boltzmann equations. The phenomena on the interface between two fluids and between fluids and solid phase, including interfacial tension and wetting effects, are described using the most modern version of the color-gradient method. The kinetic of the mass transfer between active component and adsorbent particles is described using the Langmuir adsorption equation. The numerical algorithm has been validated on two benchmarks including the immiscibility of the active component and the displaced fluid, as well as the problem of mass conservation of the active component during its adsorption and transport in porous media. The mathematical model has been adapted for porous media presented by X-ray computed tomography images of natural porous media.

摘要 本文提出了描述三维多孔介质中动态吸附过程的数学模型。该模型的新颖之处在于能够研究多孔介质中不相溶多相流的传质过程。描述流体流动和活性成分对流扩散的控制方程基于晶格玻尔兹曼方程。两种流体之间以及流体与固相之间的界面现象,包括界面张力和润湿效应,采用最现代的颜色梯度法进行描述。活性成分和吸附剂颗粒之间的传质动力学采用 Langmuir 吸附方程进行描述。该数值算法已在两个基准上得到验证,包括活性成分和被置换流体的不可溶性,以及活性成分在多孔介质中的吸附和传输过程中的质量守恒问题。该数学模型适用于天然多孔介质的 X 射线计算机断层扫描图像所显示的多孔介质。
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引用次数: 0
Two Phase Adaptive Cluster Sampling Under Transformed Population Approach 变换种群法下的两阶段自适应聚类抽样
IF 0.7 Q2 MATHEMATICS Pub Date : 2024-05-14 DOI: 10.1134/s1995080224600237
Yashpal Singh Raghav, Rajesh Singh, Rohan Mishra, Abdullah Ali H. Ahmadini, Nitesh Kumar Adichwal, Irfan Ali

Abstract

In survey sampling, it might happen that information on the population mean of the auxiliary variable is not available, but it can be obtained if the researcher opts for it. The sampling design to be used in such a case is the Two-Phase sampling design. This design has been studied extensively in SRSWOR, but it has not been studied when the population under study is rare or clumped. It is known that when the population under study is rare or clumped, adaptive cluster sampling (ACS) design is more efficient, and therefore in this paper we have proposed the Two-Phase Adaptive Cluster Sampling Under Transformed Population Approach and further proposed ratio and product estimator and a generalized robust ratio type estimator in this design. The bias and MSE of the proposed estimators have been derived and presented up to the first order of approximation. Further, the performance of the proposed estimators has been analyzed using simulation studies.

摘要 在调查抽样中,可能会出现无法获得辅助变量的总体平均值信息的情况,但如果研究人员选择这样做,就可以获得辅助变量的总体平均值信息。在这种情况下使用的抽样设计是两阶段抽样设计。这种设计在 SRSWOR 中得到了广泛的研究,但在所研究的人口稀少或成群的情况下还没有得到研究。众所周知,当研究对象是稀少或成块的人群时,自适应聚类抽样(ACS)设计更有效,因此我们在本文中提出了变换人群下的两阶段自适应聚类抽样方法,并在此设计中进一步提出了比率和乘积估计器以及广义稳健比率型估计器。所提估计器的偏差和 MSE 已推导并给出了一阶近似值。此外,还利用模拟研究分析了所提估计器的性能。
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引用次数: 0
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Lobachevskii Journal of Mathematics
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