Australian Economic Review最新文献

Energy poverty is a temporary condition, yet a non-negligible share of the Australian population suffers persistent energy disadvantage. Using the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey, we observe that single individuals, single-parent households and those with a disabled household member are at high risk of persistent energy poverty. This is also true for non-working individuals and immigrants from non-English-speaking countries. Nevertheless, highly educated individuals, those living in metropolitan areas and homeowners are less likely to persistently experience energy poverty. Government investment in energy efficiency is crucial to reduce electricity bills and have healthier homes.

The Australian Taxation Office Longitudinal Information Files: Individuals (ALife: Individuals), is one of the most comprehensive tax administrative datasets in the world. The ALife: Individuals dataset, which currently covers the period 1990‒1991 to 2017‒2018, is based on a 10 per cent longitudinal sample of administrative unit-record personal income tax data. This new, high quality, longitudinal, de-identified, research-ready dataset is available to approved researchers through secure environments that safeguard taxpayers' information. The availability of ALife: Individuals opens exciting new possibilities for public policy research and evaluation that will improve understanding of taxpayer behaviour and support policy development and its administration.

Macroeconomic forecasts and program evaluations of health service interventions are pessimistic about ageing populations, given their low work participation and high demand for social services. We estimate the impact of heart disease on paid work and the value of unpaid non-market activities of the Australian elderly, using Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) data, finding significant losses in the value of their contributions to adult care and voluntary work. Impacts on non-market contributions of older women were more significant than for older men. A broader perspective on the value of the contributions made by the elderly is needed to enhance efficiency and (gender) equality.

Economic dynamism is fundamental to productivity and living standards. Several important metrics suggest that the Australian economy has become less dynamic over recent decades. The share of workers starting a new job has fallen. Among employing businesses, the start-up rate has declined. On average, markets have become more concentrated. Mark-ups have increased. Reinvigorating competition policy may be an important means of boosting dynamism and raising the rate of productivity growth.

Detailed labour market and economic data are often released infrequently and with considerable time lags between collection and release, making it difficult for policy-makers to accurately assess current conditions. Nowcasting is an emerging technique in the field of economics that seeks to address this gap by ‘predicting the present’. While nowcasting has primarily been used to derive timely estimates of economy-wide indicators such as GDP and unemployment, this article extends this literature to show how big data and machine-learning techniques can be utilised to produce nowcasting estimates at detailed disaggregated levels. A range of traditional and real-time data sources were used to produce, for the first time, a useful and timely indicator—or nowcast—of employment by region and occupation. The resulting Nowcast of Employment by Region and Occupation (NERO) will complement existing sources of labour market information and improve Australia's capacity to understand labour market trends in a more timely and detailed manner.

The COVID-19 pandemic saw governments around the world suddenly accumulate substantially higher levels of public debt. We consider the level of debt entered into by Australia's federal, state and territory governments and compare this against three metrics for debt sustainability. Using these measures, we find that current and future public debt levels sit within what is regarded as sustainable by scholarly and practitioner opinion. However, we note that recent increases in interest rates will challenge this. We conclude by outlining a range of economic, social and policy challenges arising from the new high public debt environment.

At the zero lower bound, the expected duration of zero interest rate policy has two dimensions which are key to understanding the stance of monetary policy: (i) the actual duration communicated by the central bank or expected by the private sector, and (ii) the duration prescribed by the underlying monetary policy rule—the rule that is in place in normal times. In a small open economy, the duration prescribed by the underlying monetary policy rule depends in part on foreign economic conditions. including foreign monetary policy. A monetary policy tightening abroad depreciates the exchange rate, increases inflation and shortens the duration prescribed by the monetary policy rule. We argue that a monetary policy strategy like yield curve control that aims to pin down a given duration is risky when economic shocks can change the duration prescribed by the underlying monetary policy rule.

This article provides an introduction to the measurement of welfare gains from the introduction of a new good, based on the concept of the ‘virtual price’ and standard expressions for welfare changes arising from price changes.

How large is Australia's fiscal space? Blanchard (2019) shows that as long as the real interest rate $��R�$ is below the real growth rate $�\; ��G�$, a government can sustain a positive primary deficit with a constant (or even declining) ratio of public debt to GDP. In this article, we explain the neutral real interest rate and the reasons for its decline. Then, we discuss the results of a companion paper, Domínguez and Quiggin (2022), in which we quantify the fiscal space for Australia and find that a permanent increase in the primary deficit can be afforded up to reaching a debt to GDP ratio of 79 per cent. Furthermore, this so-called ‘free lunch’ in the fiscal space can be expanded if debt is used to finance public investment.

The Australian Government has committed to addressing the recommendations on workforce made by the 2021 Royal Commission into Aged Care Quality and Safety. Implementation requires a sound information base but examination of the 2020 Aged Care Workforce Census finds it inadequate for these purposes. Only half the reported 32 per cent workforce increase is substantiated on the basis of funding increases and the balance attributed to extraneous factors that inflated results. These limitations are discussed with reference to four major areas of workforce planning and policy and conclusions are drawn about margins for change associated with each of these areas.