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COVID-19 AND DIVIDENDS: EVIDENCE FROM POLAND COVID-19及其红利:来自波兰的证据
IF 1.5 4区 经济学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.15240/tul/001/2022-2-006
K. Gemra, Piotr Kwestarz, W. Rogowski, M. Lipski
This paper aims to examine the impact of an unexpected change in the level of dividend caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on share prices on the Polish stock exchange. Our article analyses the period from 1 February 2020 to 5 June 2020, which was when companies listed on the primary market of the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE) published information about Boards of Directors’ dividend recommendations for 2019. The original group of companies included 140 firms. 56 companies (40%) fulfilled all the study criteria, and these were subsequently divided into 2 groups. The groups were defined by the recommendations on profit distribution. The first group consisting of 38 companies (68% of the surveyed) consisted of firms which unexpectedly announced plans to retain all profits in the company or a dividend payment but with a lower value than in the previous year (cancellation or reduction of the dividend amount). The second group of 18 companies (32% of the surveyed) comprised those which unexpectedly announced willingness to pay a dividend per share at a higher level (increase in dividend amount). The research confirmed that the announcement of a change in the level of the dividend or the cancellation of the payment of profit is essential price-creating information on the Polish securities market and has a significant impact on the share prices. In a situation of uncertainty caused by external factors, such as the coronavirus pandemic, the sensitivity of individual companies to lockdown and uncertainty as to the return to normality have a significant negative impact on the market. They cause a fall in the share prices higher than expected, especially when they are accompanied by a shortage of information from the companies and a recommendation to suspend or reduce dividend payment.
本文旨在研究冠状病毒(COVID-19)大流行导致的股息水平意外变化对波兰证券交易所股价的影响。我们的文章分析了2020年2月1日至2020年6月5日这段时间,这段时间在华沙证券交易所(WSE)一级市场上市的公司发布了有关董事会2019年股息建议的信息。最初的公司集团包括140家公司。56家公司(40%)符合所有研究标准,随后将这些公司分为两组。这些集团是根据利润分配的建议来定义的。第一组包括38家公司(占被调查公司的68%),这些公司出人意料地宣布计划保留公司所有利润或支付股息,但价值低于前一年(取消或减少股息金额)。第二组是18家公司(占被调查公司的32%),这些公司出人意料地宣布愿意支付更高水平的每股股息(增加股息金额)。研究证实,宣布股息水平的变化或取消支付利润是波兰证券市场上重要的价格创造信息,并对股价产生重大影响。在新冠肺炎疫情等外部因素带来不确定性的情况下,个别企业对封锁的敏感性以及能否恢复正常的不确定性,对市场产生了重大负面影响。它们导致股价下跌幅度高于预期,尤其是当它们伴随着来自公司的信息不足,以及建议暂停或减少股息支付时。
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引用次数: 1
INNOVATIVE ACTIVITY OF RESTAURANTS OPERATING IN THE LARGEST POLISH CITIES 在波兰最大的城市经营的餐馆的创新活动
IF 1.5 4区 经济学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.15240/tul/001/2022-2-011
A. Rapacz, P. Gryszel, Marek Walesiak, A. Dudek
The skills of acquiring and processing information as well as creating innovations remain the key factor responsible for the market success of enterprises, one of the most important factors in gaining a competitive advantage on the market. It is also true for the tourism market of which catering services make an essential part. Hotel industry has been the subject of intensive research in this area for over 2 decades. Much less scientific attention has been paid to innovation in the restaurant sector. Therefore, the intention of the authors of this study was to analyse the process of creating innovations in restaurants operating in the largest Polish cities. The study identifies the factors responsible for the innovative activity of restaurants, perceived from the perspective of their managers. For this purpose, a multivariate method, in the form of classification trees, was used. The research material was collected in the course of a survey carried out in 250 restaurants. As a result of the applied research methods, the innovation factors were specified and 4 segments of innovative restaurants in Poland were identified. These segments are made up of 75% of restaurants applying pro-innovative activities, which for them represent an important aspect of market success. Pro-innovative activities are implemented more often by chain restaurants as well as the ones operating in hotel facilities. Small, family-run restaurants use innovations on a smaller scale. They refer to selected restaurants operating in the 6 largest Polish cities, which limits the possibility of making generalizations regarding other forms of catering establishments functioning in other geographical locations. Future research should cover a wider group of catering establishments, in various locations.
获取和处理信息以及创造创新的技能仍然是企业在市场上取得成功的关键因素,是获得市场竞争优势的最重要因素之一。旅游市场也是如此,餐饮服务是旅游市场的重要组成部分。20多年来,酒店业一直是这一领域深入研究的主题。科学界对餐饮业创新的关注要少得多。因此,这项研究的作者的意图是分析在波兰最大的城市经营的餐馆创造创新的过程。该研究从餐馆管理者的角度确定了影响餐馆创新活动的因素。为此,我们使用了一种多变量方法,即分类树。研究资料是在对250家餐馆进行调查的过程中收集的。通过应用研究方法,明确了创新因素,并确定了波兰创新餐厅的4个细分市场。这些细分市场占75%的餐厅采用支持创新的活动,这对他们来说是市场成功的一个重要方面。支持创新的活动更多是由连锁餐厅以及在酒店设施内经营的餐厅实施的。家庭经营的小型餐馆在规模较小的范围内使用创新。它们指的是在波兰6个最大城市经营的选定餐馆,这限制了对在其他地理位置运作的其他形式的餐饮机构进行概括的可能性。未来的研究应涵盖更广泛的餐饮机构,在不同的地点。
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引用次数: 0
INSIGHTS INTO PLATFORM TOURISM SERVICES: FUTURE DEMAND PERSPECTIVES IN SLOVAKIA 平台旅游服务洞察:斯洛伐克未来需求视角
IF 1.5 4区 经济学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.15240/tul/001/2022-2-010
K. Pompurová, Radka Marčeková
A model based on digital sharing has brought a new wind to the business world. Its growth was abruptly disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. As anti-epidemiological measures have most significantly affected the tourism sector, this paper attempts to outline the development perspective of platform tourism services. The aim of the paper is to examine the plans of the Slovak population related to the use of platform tourism services after the end of the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on the results of focus groups and questionnaire survey, the paper predicts, that the current crisis will not weaken the development of the tourism platform economy, while demand will be price-driven. As the economy of platform tourism services will be an integral part of our lives for many years to come, it is possible to assume a relentless interest not only of practice, but also of scholars. The research confirms that the accommodation and the transport are the most important paid platform tourism services. They are popular mainly because of the price, not because of the environmental friendliness which denote rather a positive externality of their use. Platform tourism services should be seen as a whole, not as fragments through the prism of selected platforms. The paper highlights information as a key segment and draws attention to the shortcomings of measuring platform services, especially transport ones. Platform tourism services will continue to transform the business. Therefore, it is necessary to better understand it and look for opportunities for its sustainable development. The uniqueness of the current study lies, among others, in the use of mixed methods which help to comprehensively understand the problem in depth and breadth.
一种基于数字共享的模式给商业世界带来了一股新风。它的增长突然被COVID-19大流行打断。由于抗流行病学措施对旅游行业的影响最为显著,本文试图勾勒出平台旅游服务的发展前景。本文的目的是研究斯洛伐克人口在COVID-19大流行结束后与使用平台旅游服务相关的计划。根据焦点小组和问卷调查的结果,本文预测,当前的危机不会削弱旅游平台经济的发展,而需求将以价格为驱动。由于平台旅游服务经济将在未来的许多年里成为我们生活中不可或缺的一部分,因此有可能不仅是实践,而且是学者的不懈兴趣。研究证实,住宿和交通是最重要的付费平台旅游服务。它们受欢迎主要是因为价格,而不是因为环境友好,这表明它们的使用具有积极的外部性。平台旅游服务应该被视为一个整体,而不是通过特定平台的棱镜视为碎片。本文强调信息是衡量平台服务的关键部分,并指出了平台服务特别是运输服务衡量的不足。平台旅游服务业务将不断转型。因此,有必要更好地了解它,并寻找其可持续发展的机会。本研究的独特之处在于使用混合方法,有助于从深度和广度上全面理解问题。
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引用次数: 0
AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT EFFECT OF RURAL FINANCE: AN EXTENDED REGRESSION APPROACH 农村金融的农业产出效应:一种扩展回归方法
IF 1.5 4区 经济学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.15240/tul/001/2022-2-001
Xinxin Jing, R. Jiang, Zhiguo Chen, Zhi Deng
Agricultural output growth is an everlasting realistic problem in human society. Rural finance aims to relieve the financing constraint and pressure on the rural society with capital scarcity through credit aid and support agricultural output growth. However, credit funds cannot be adequately input into agricultural production and management, which adversely impacts agricultural output. To accurately investigate the agricultural output effect of rural finance, using the 2015 China Household Finance Survey’s large-sample micro-survey data, an extended regression model (ERM) was established that could effectively eliminate the endogeneity problem. Then, the agricultural output effect of rural finance was empirically estimated. Subsequently, the robustness of empirical results was tested using the propensity score matching (PSM) method and the Kernel density map. Agricultural technical guidance was introduced to explore its regulating effect on the relationship between rural finance and agricultural output. Furthermore, the robustness test was conducted for different groups, such as the eastern region, the western region, and the central region, to investigate the regional differences in the agricultural output effect of rural finance. The estimation results of ERM indicate that rural finance exerts a significantly positive influence on the agricultural output, and a large estimated coefficient manifests the considerable agricultural output effect of rural finance. The estimation results of the PSM method show that rural finance significantly increases the agricultural output of all peasant household samples averagely by 11,100 CNY. Agricultural technical guidance has a significantly positive regulating effect on the agricultural output effect of rural finance. According to the regional heterogeneity analysis, rural finance is significantly promoted in central and western regions, but it presents an insignificant crowding-out effect in the eastern region. Conclusions in this study can provide pertinent enlightenment for strengthening the productive functions of rural finance and lay a theoretical foundation for facilitating its healthy development.
农业产出增长是人类社会永恒的现实问题。农村金融旨在通过信贷援助,缓解资金短缺的农村社会的融资约束和压力,支持农业产出增长。然而,信贷资金不能充分投入到农业生产和经营中,这对农业产出产生了不利影响。为准确考察农村金融的农业产出效应,利用2015年中国家庭金融调查的大样本微观调查数据,建立了能够有效消除内生性问题的扩展回归模型(ERM)。然后,对农村金融的农业产出效应进行了实证评估。随后,利用倾向得分匹配(PSM)方法和核密度图对实证结果进行鲁棒性检验。引入农业技术指导,探讨其对农村金融与农业产出关系的调节作用。进一步对东部地区、西部地区、中部地区等不同群体进行稳健性检验,考察农村金融农业产出效应的区域差异。ERM的估计结果表明,农村金融对农业产出具有显著的正向影响,估计系数较大表明农村金融的农业产出效应较大。PSM方法的估计结果表明,农村金融显著增加了所有农户样本的农业产出,平均增加11100元。农业技术指导对农村金融的农业产出效应具有显著的正向调节作用。从区域异质性分析来看,中西部地区农村金融发展显著,东部地区农村金融发展的挤出效应不显著。本文的研究结论可以为强化农村金融的生产功能提供有针对性的启示,为促进农村金融的健康发展奠定理论基础。
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引用次数: 2
MANAGING COMMUNICATION AND PARTICIPATION IN CANARY ISLAND FIRMS 管理加纳利群岛公司的沟通和参与
IF 1.5 4区 经济学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.15240/tul/001/2022-2-005
Zamira Acosta Rubio, Jaime Febles Acosta, A. Banaitis, F. Ferreira
Business organizations and management encompass a wide range of aspects requiring research and analysis. Two key issues are communications management and employee participation promotion within firms. This study focused on the variables of communication and participation in organizational structure, business decision making, transmission of orders, supervision, and control in small and micro-enterprises in the Canary Islands, Spain. The research examined the two variables’ ability to generate increased involvement in and employee identification with their firm. The analytical framework applied sought to investigate Canarian managers’ criteria and priorities regarding using communication and participation as management tools. The methodology included the Rasch analysis technique. The study analyses seven variables considered relevant in relation to communication that are communication between management and workers, fluid and informal communication, use of information technology in internal communication, access of all workers to new information technology, linking/relationship systems between units of the same level, linking/relationship systems between units of different levels and the existence of information disseminated as a tool. Likewise, among the variables related to participation, twelve variables recognized as relevant in the literature are analysed. These variables are setting specific objectives for workers, individual initiative, cooperation, decentralization of decision making, control, participation in decision making, participation in setting objectives, workers' autonomy in decision making when carrying out their work, initiative in their work, control of their work, commitment and involvement of managers in daily work and delegation of authority to lower levels. The predominance of small businesses, in many cases managed by their owners, allows us to appreciate a vertical communication based on direct supervision, from top to bottom. The results reveal a poorly balanced combination of communication and participation systems in Canarian firms. These marked imbalances have consequences for managers’ coordination mechanisms and potential for effectively managing their firms.
商业组织和管理包含了广泛的需要研究和分析的方面。两个关键问题是公司内部的沟通管理和员工参与促进。本研究主要研究西班牙加那利群岛小微企业在组织结构、业务决策、订单传递、监督控制等方面的沟通与参与变量。该研究考察了这两个变量是否能够提高员工对公司的参与度和认同感。所采用的分析框架旨在调查加那利管理人员在使用沟通和参与作为管理工具方面的标准和优先事项。方法包括拉希分析技术。该研究分析了被认为与沟通相关的七个变量,即管理层与工人之间的沟通、流动和非正式的沟通、内部沟通中信息技术的使用、所有工人获得新信息技术的机会、同一级别单位之间的联系/关系系统、不同级别单位之间的联系/关系系统以及作为工具传播的信息的存在。同样,在与参与相关的变量中,分析了文献中公认的12个相关变量。这些变量包括为工人设定具体目标、个人主动性、合作、决策权力下放、控制、参与决策、参与制定目标、工人在开展工作时的决策自主权、工作主动性、对工作的控制、管理人员对日常工作的承诺和参与以及对下级的授权。小企业的优势,在许多情况下由他们的所有者管理,使我们能够欣赏基于直接监督的垂直沟通,从上到下。结果显示,加那利公司的沟通和参与系统组合不平衡。这些明显的不平衡对管理者的协调机制和有效管理公司的潜力产生了影响。
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引用次数: 3
PREDICTING JOB SATISFACTION AND WORK ENGAGEMENT BEHAVIOR IN THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC: A CONSERVATION OF RESOURCES THEORY APPROACH COVID-19大流行中工作满意度和工作投入行为的预测:资源保护理论方法
IF 1.5 4区 经济学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.15240/tul/001/2022-2-002
M. Nemteanu, Vasile Dinu, Rebeka-Anna Pop, Dan-Cristian Dabija
The rapid spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has forced organizations to impose physical distancing restrictions on employees and to practice teleworking on a large scale. Adapting to the new context has generated an increase in job insecurity, and a decrease in employee productivity concerning task completion, boosting stress and counterproductive work behavior. Although the challenges employees face when carrying out their activities and work-related responsibilities, together with an understanding of the factors generating counterproductive work behaviors and job insecurity have been intensely studied in the literature, their manifestation and impact within organizations in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic is barely covered. This paper aims to fill this research gap by evaluating the way internal vision communication, employee reward systems, knowledge, and skills capitalization, and the maintaining of task performance can diminish counterproductive work behaviors and job insecurity generated by the COVID-19 pandemic, influencing employee satisfaction and behavior in this stress-inducing context. The responses collected from 863 Romanian employees are modelled with the help of structural equations in SmartPLS. The results show that in the case of counterproductive work behavior, employee satisfaction diminishes, while efficient performance of tasks and responsibilities, knowledge and skills capitalization, internal vision communication, and the existence of an employee reward system for employee input can all generate greater organizational attachment. Job satisfaction mediates the influence of performance, internal marketing, and counterproductive work behavior in employees’ attachment towards their respective organizations. The paper contributes to the development of the Conservation of Resources Theory, highlighting, in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, ways in which employee satisfaction and work engagement behavior can be enhanced, thus contributing to diminishing counterproductive work behaviors, and fostering a pleasant and safe work environment.
COVID-19大流行的迅速蔓延迫使组织对员工施加物理距离限制,并大规模实施远程办公。对新环境的适应增加了工作的不安全感,降低了员工完成任务的效率,增加了压力和适得其反的工作行为。虽然在文献中已经深入研究了员工在开展活动和工作相关责任时面临的挑战,以及对产生反生产行为和工作不安全感的因素的理解,但在COVID-19大流行的背景下,这些挑战在组织内的表现和影响几乎没有被涵盖。本文旨在通过评估内部愿景沟通、员工奖励制度、知识和技能资本化以及维持任务绩效如何减少COVID-19大流行产生的反生产行为和工作不安全感,从而在这种压力诱导的背景下影响员工满意度和行为来填补这一研究空白。在SmartPLS的结构方程的帮助下,从863名罗马尼亚员工收集的回复进行了建模。结果表明,在反生产行为的情况下,员工满意度降低,而任务和职责的有效履行、知识和技能的资本化、内部愿景沟通以及员工投入的员工奖励制度的存在都可以产生更大的组织依恋。工作满意度在绩效、内部营销和反生产行为对员工组织依恋的影响中起中介作用。本文为资源保护理论的发展做出了贡献,强调了在2019冠状病毒病大流行的背景下,如何提高员工满意度和工作投入行为,从而有助于减少适得其反的工作行为,营造一个愉快和安全的工作环境。
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引用次数: 21
DEMAND FOR EMPLOYEES’ DIGITAL SKILLS IN THE CONTEXT OF BANKING 4.0 银行业4.0背景下对员工数字技能的需求
IF 1.5 4区 经济学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.15240/tul/001/2022-2-003
Anastasiia Mazurchenko, M. Zelenka, K. Maršíková
Digitalisation and technical development in the financial service sector have aimed to secure, increase the quality, and satisfy the interests of both customers and financial institutions in the current turbulent era. Together with this situation, there is a need to develop digital employees’ competencies in the financial sector. This paper aims to analyse the topical issue of digitalisation and demand for employees’ digital skills in connection with the COVID-19 pandemic situation based on global secondary data and primary data collected by the authors in the Czech Republic. The main research objective of the paper is to provide a theoretical framework for digitalisation and its drivers in the financial sector, introduce the phenomenon of Banking 4.0 concerning the required competencies, and identify gaps and barriers for faster and more effective development based on the literature review and selected primary and secondary and data analysis. Descriptive statistics and Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient have been used to fulfil this goal. A semi-structured in-depth interview with three human resources (HR) specialists of a selected Czech bank also has been conducted. The paper brings an overview of the latest research studies in the field of digital competencies in general and specifically in the financial sector. Although the primary data is limited in scope (i.e. ten middle-sized and large financial and insurance companies), it provides a unique view of the situation with digitalisation in financial institutions. It shows current developments, trends and barriers within the example of a bank case study. The paper is motivated by the current situation in the banking sector in connection with digitalisation. It aims to emphasise the growing influence of digital technologies on employees, managers and companies, and the importance of systematically implementing digital skills development approaches on the companies’ strategic level.
金融服务业的数字化和技术发展旨在确保、提高质量,并在当前动荡的时代满足客户和金融机构的利益。在这种情况下,有必要培养金融部门数字员工的能力。本文旨在根据作者在捷克共和国收集的全球二手数据和主要数据,分析与COVID-19大流行形势相关的数字化主题问题和对员工数字技能的需求。本文的主要研究目标是为金融部门的数字化及其驱动因素提供一个理论框架,介绍银行4.0关于所需能力的现象,并根据文献综述和选定的一级和二级以及数据分析确定更快,更有效发展的差距和障碍。描述性统计和斯皮尔曼等级相关系数被用来实现这一目标。对选定的一家捷克银行的三名人力资源(HR)专家进行了半结构化的深入访谈。本文概述了数字能力领域的最新研究成果,特别是在金融部门。虽然原始数据的范围有限(即10家中型和大型金融和保险公司),但它提供了金融机构数字化情况的独特视角。它以银行案例研究为例,展示了当前的发展、趋势和障碍。这篇论文的动机是银行业与数字化有关的现状。它旨在强调数字技术对员工、经理和公司日益增长的影响,以及在公司战略层面上系统地实施数字技能发展方法的重要性。
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引用次数: 3
HARNESSING THE PREDICTIVE VALUE OF ONLINE WORD-OF-MOUTH FOR IDENTIFYING MARKET SUCCESS OF NEW AUTOMOBILES: INPUT VERSUS OUTPUT WORD-OF-MOUTH PERSPECTIVES 利用在线口碑的预测价值来确定新车的市场成功:输入与输出口碑的观点
IF 1.5 4区 经济学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.15240/tul/001/2022-2-012
Jaewon Choi, H. Lee, J. Choeh
The automotive industry evaluates various success factors to achieve competitive advantage in selling products. Existing studies have predicted the success of newly launched automobiles based on an economic perspective. However, factors such as dynamic changes in consumer preferences and the emergence of numerous automobile brands pose difficulty in understanding product quality. This study proposes a method of understanding the automotive market using text mining techniques and online user opinions for newly launched cars. By analyzing customer experiences and expectations through their opinions, we can anticipate automobile demand in the market more easily. The proposed method is based on online reviews from an online portal for automobiles. Based on a literature review, this study presents a framework for analyzing input versus output word-of-mouth (WOM). It also integrates the success factors from existing automobile studies and derives functional categories and relevant keywords. The analysis identifies differences in consumer-interest factors that lead to short-term success or normal results in automobile sales. In addition, it confirms that the elements of WOM produces varying results depending on the timing these are employed in relation to the product launch (i.e., before or after a product’s launch). It revealed which dimensions of automobile characteristics are important factors in identifying sales volume and market share for specific types and brands of automobile models. The results of this study provide theoretical advantage in predicting market success in the automobile industry. In addition, the study derives practical insights into characteristics of classification information for market forecasts in the automotive industry. The paper provides empirical insights about how input WOM and output WOM which are analyzed differently can have predictive power in forecasting market share and sales volume for automobiles.
汽车行业评估各种成功因素,以获得销售产品的竞争优势。现有的研究都是从经济角度预测新上市汽车的成功。然而,消费者偏好的动态变化和众多汽车品牌的出现等因素给理解产品质量带来了困难。本研究提出了一种利用文本挖掘技术和在线用户对新车的意见来理解汽车市场的方法。通过客户的意见分析客户的体验和期望,我们可以更容易地预测市场上的汽车需求。提出的方法是基于在线汽车门户网站的在线评论。在文献综述的基础上,本研究提出了一个分析输入与输出口碑(口碑)的框架。并结合现有汽车研究的成功因素,推导出功能分类和相关关键词。分析指出了导致汽车销售短期成功或正常结果的消费者兴趣因素的差异。此外,它确认了口碑要素产生不同的结果,这取决于与产品发布相关的时间(即,在产品发布之前或之后)。它揭示了汽车特征的哪些维度是确定特定类型和品牌汽车车型的销量和市场份额的重要因素。本研究结果为预测汽车行业的市场成功提供了理论优势。此外,该研究还对汽车行业市场预测的分类信息特征提出了实用的见解。本文通过实证分析,揭示了不同分析方式下的输入口碑和输出口碑对汽车市场份额和销量的预测能力。
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引用次数: 1
NONLINEAR ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION OF BITCOIN RETURN’S VOLATILITY 比特币收益波动的非线性分析与预测
IF 1.5 4区 经济学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.15240/tul/001/2022-2-007
T. Yin, Yiming Wang
This paper mainly studies the market nonlinearity and the prediction model based on the intrinsic generation mechanism (chaos) of Bitcoin’s daily return’s volatility from June 27, 2013 to November 7, 2019 with an econophysics perspective, so as to avoid the forecasting model misspecification. Firstly, this paper studies the multifractal and chaotic nonlinear characteristics of Bitcoin volatility by using multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA) and largest Lyapunov exponent (LLE) methods. Then, from the perspective of nonlinearity, the measured values of multifractal and chaos show that the volatility of Bitcoin has short-term predictability. The study of chaos and multifractal dynamics in nonlinear systems is very important in terms of their predictability. The chaos signals may have short-term predictability, while multifractals and self-similarity can increase the likelihood of accurately predicting future sequences of these signals. Finally, we constructed a number of chaotic artificial neural network models to forecast the Bitcoin return’s volatility avoiding the model misspecification. The results show that chaotic artificial neural network models have good prediction effect by comparing these models with the existing Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models. This is because the chaotic artificial neural network models can extract hidden patterns and accurately model time series from potential signals, while the benchmark ANN models are based on Gaussian kernel local approximation of non-stationary signals, so they cannot approach the global model with chaotic characteristics. At the same time, the multifractal parameters are further mined to obtain more market information to guide financial practice. These above findings matter for investors (especially for investors in quantitative trading) as well as effective supervision of financial institutions by government.
本文主要从经济物理学的角度研究2013年6月27日至2019年11月7日比特币日收益波动的市场非线性和基于内在生成机制(混沌)的预测模型,以避免预测模型的错配。首先,利用多重分形去趋势波动分析(MFDFA)和最大李雅普诺夫指数(LLE)方法研究了比特币波动的多重分形和混沌非线性特征。然后,从非线性的角度,多重分形和混沌的测量值表明比特币的波动具有短期可预测性。非线性系统的混沌和多重分形动力学研究在其可预测性方面是非常重要的。混沌信号可能具有短期可预测性,而多重分形和自相似性可以增加准确预测这些信号未来序列的可能性。最后,我们构建了多个混沌人工神经网络模型来预测比特币收益的波动率,避免了模型的错配。结果表明,混沌人工神经网络模型与现有的人工神经网络模型相比具有较好的预测效果。这是因为混沌人工神经网络模型可以从潜在信号中提取隐藏模式并准确地建模时间序列,而基准的人工神经网络模型是基于非平稳信号的高斯核局部逼近,因此无法接近具有混沌特征的全局模型。同时,进一步挖掘多重分形参数,获取更多的市场信息,指导金融实践。上述发现对投资者(尤其是量化交易的投资者)以及政府对金融机构的有效监管都很重要。
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引用次数: 0
DO SERVICE QUALITY AND SOCIAL MEDIA MARKETING IMPROVE CUSTOMER RETENTION IN HOTELS? TESTING THE MEDIATION EFFECT 服务质量和社交媒体营销是否能提高酒店的客户保留率?中介效应检验
IF 1.5 4区 经济学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.15240/tul/001/2022-2-008
Romina Cheraghalizadeh, Jaroslava Dědková
Customer retention is a critical factor in companies’ survival, and both service quality and social media are important means of retaining customers. However, despite this importance of these antecedents, only a few studies considered the effects of these factors in the hotel industry literature. With the application of social exchange theory, the current research aims to evaluate the effect of service quality and social media marketing on customer retention in hotels, and evaluates how customer satisfaction, brand awareness and brand image mediate this association. After pre-testing the questionnaire, data of this research was collected from 4- and 5-star hotel customers in various cities of the Czech Republic. Before testing the hypotheses, data have been tested in term of checking reliability and validity. Moreover, the probability of common-method bias was also tested in order to ensure there is no variation caused by study method or instrument. Testing the hypotheses was done using correlation and regression analysis afterwards. Findings of this research indicated that service quality and social media marketing improve customer satisfaction, brand awareness, and brand image. Moreover, customer satisfaction, brand awareness, and brand image are also antecedents of customer retention. Findings also confirmed that these three factors (customer satisfaction, brand awareness, and brand image) play the mediation roles between Service quality and revisit intention, and also between social media marketing and revisit intention. Results of this research showed the importance of both service quality and social media marketing in order to achieve better customer outcomes and encourage clients to revisit the hotel. The findings can provide important managerial and practical implications to the hotel industry.
留住客户是企业生存的关键因素,服务质量和社交媒体都是留住客户的重要手段。然而,尽管这些前因如此重要,只有少数研究在酒店业文献中考虑了这些因素的影响。运用社会交换理论,本研究旨在评估服务质量和社交媒体营销对酒店顾客保留的影响,并评估顾客满意度、品牌知名度和品牌形象如何中介这种关联。在对问卷进行预测试后,本研究的数据收集自捷克共和国各个城市的四星级和五星级酒店客户。在检验假设之前,对数据进行了信度和效度的检验。此外,我们还对共法偏差的概率进行了检验,以确保不存在由研究方法或仪器引起的变异。然后用相关分析和回归分析对假设进行检验。本研究发现,服务品质与社交媒体行销能提升顾客满意度、品牌知名度与品牌形象。此外,顾客满意度、品牌知名度和品牌形象也是顾客保留的前提。研究结果还证实了这三个因素(顾客满意度、品牌知名度和品牌形象)在服务质量和重访意愿之间,以及在社会化媒体营销和重访意愿之间发挥中介作用。这项研究的结果表明,服务质量和社交媒体营销对于获得更好的客户结果和鼓励客户再次光顾酒店都很重要。研究结果可以为酒店业提供重要的管理和实践意义。
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引用次数: 1
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E & M Ekonomie a Management
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