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Exploring the Multidimensional Hollowing of Rural Areas in China’s Loess Hilly Region from the Perspective of “Population Outflow” “人口外流”视角下的黄土丘陵区农村多维空心化研究
IF 2 4区 社会学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-11-30 DOI: 10.1007/s12061-024-09623-5
Zhihao Shi, Libang Ma, Ziyan Li, Shanshan Wu, Xianfei Chen

As a special product of the evolution of urban-rural regional systems, rural hollowing has become a major constraint to China’s rural revitalization. This paper attempts to construct a theoretical framework of rural multidimensional hollowing from the perspective of population outflow, and to comprehensively assess the level of rural hollowing from the dimensions of population, economy and land. Based on this, this paper describes in detail the characteristics and facts of population outflow and rural hollowing in Longxi County, which is located in Longzhong Loess Hilly Regin. The key factors of rural hollowing are identified in terms of individual characteristics, geographic environment and socio-economic attributes. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) Longxi County has significant spatial differences in population outflow. The proportion of floating population in the household population is as high as 28.6%. The villages with intra-provincial preferences show a “center-periphery” circle distribution pattern, and villages with extra-provincial preferences are mainly located in the boundary area. The rural hollowing level of Longxi is characterized by “economic hollowing (Eh) > population hollowing (Ph) > land hollowing (Lh)”. The hollowing level of each dimension has different spatial distribution characteristics, and the rural hollowing (Rh) level shows a spatial pattern of “high in the east and low in the west, high in the south and low in the north”. (3) The influencing factors of rural hollowing vary significantly and are greatly influenced by the geographical and socio-economic attributes of the villages. When one factor (economic or geographical environment) is dominant, low-intensity intra-provincial mobility may occur. However, when all factors are combined, a high-intensity, multi-directional flow trend emerges within and outside the province. This study contributes theoretical insights into understanding the social changes in rural areas during the rapid urbanization process where population outflows occur, and can also provide inspiration for addressing issues in rural transformation.

乡村空心化作为城乡区域体系演进的特殊产物,已成为制约中国乡村振兴的重要因素。本文试图从人口外流的角度构建农村多维空心化的理论框架,并从人口、经济和土地三个维度对农村空心化程度进行综合评价。在此基础上,详细描述了陇中黄土丘陵区陇西县人口外流与农村空心化的特点和事实。从个体特征、地理环境和社会经济属性三个方面确定了农村空心化的关键因素。主要结论如下:①陇西人口外流存在显著的空间差异;流动人口占户籍人口的比例高达28.6%。省内偏好村呈“中心-外围”圆形分布格局,省外偏好村主要位于边界区域。陇西农村空心化程度表现为“经济空心化(Eh) >;人口空心化(Ph) >;土地空心化(Lh)”。各维度空心化水平具有不同的空间分布特征,农村空心化(Rh)水平呈现“东高西低、南高北低”的空间格局。③农村空心化的影响因素差异较大,受村庄地理属性和社会经济属性的影响较大。当一个因素(经济或地理环境)占主导地位时,可能会出现低强度的省内流动。但综合各因素,省内外呈现出高强度、多向流动的趋势。本研究为理解快速城市化进程中发生人口外流的农村社会变迁提供了理论见解,也为解决农村转型问题提供了启示。
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引用次数: 0
Spatial Aspects of Learning Performance and Efficiency of Primary Education in India 印度初等教育学习成绩和效率的空间方面
IF 2 4区 社会学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-11-27 DOI: 10.1007/s12061-024-09617-3
Mallika Sinha, Rama Pal

Given the unequal distribution of educational opportunities across regions, it is insightful to identify spatial clusters in learning performance and investigate how far the regions are from tapping their full potential of educational resources. This paper explores the spatial aspects of learning performance and estimates the technical efficiency of the primary education system of Indian districts using the spatial stochastic frontier analysis. Specifically, we investigate the effect of spatial associations between districts on primary educational efficiency in achieving better learning outcomes. Also, the study examines the regional patterns in efficiency and learning. We find evidence of spatial clustering of learning. Although the mean technical efficiency is 90 per cent, the findings demonstrate substantial regional disparities in India, with efficiency levels ranging from 68 to 97 per cent. Our results suggest that efficient districts can improve learning outcomes from extra inputs, while better utilization of existing inputs may enhance learning for the relatively inefficient districts. Thus, policy formulation needs to align with the specific shortcomings and needs of the districts.

鉴于各地区教育机会分布不均,确定学习成绩的空间集群并调查各地区在充分挖掘教育资源潜力方面还有多远,是很有见地的。本文探讨了学习成绩的空间方面,并利用空间随机前沿分析估算了印度各地区初等教育系统的技术效率。具体而言,我们研究了地区之间的空间关联对初等教育效率的影响,以取得更好的学习成绩。此外,本研究还探讨了效率和学习的区域模式。我们发现了学习空间集群的证据。虽然平均技术效率为 90%,但研究结果表明印度各地区之间存在巨大差异,效率水平从 68%到 97%不等。我们的结果表明,效率高的地区可以通过额外投入改善学习成果,而对于效率相对较低的地区来说,更好地利用现有投入可能会提高学习效果。因此,政策的制定需要与各地区的具体不足和需求保持一致。
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引用次数: 0
Where’s the Ticket? Identifying Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Parking Violations with Crowdsourced Web-GIS Data 罚单在哪里?利用众包网络-地理信息系统数据识别违章停车的时空模式
IF 2 4区 社会学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-11-26 DOI: 10.1007/s12061-024-09624-4
Parmenion Delialis, Christina Iliopoulou, Orfeas Karountzos, Konstantinos Kepaptsoglou

Illegal parking is a widespread issue in urban environments, leading to significant adverse effects on traffic flow, public safety, and the aesthetics of streetscapes. This paper introduces an innovative methodology for the identification and analysis of illegal parking hotspots. To achieve this, a custom Web-GIS platform is developed that employs crowdsourcing, enabling citizens to report the precise locations and types of parking violations they encounter. The platform collects this data, which is then analyzed using a Spatio-Temporal Density Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (ST-DBSCAN) algorithm. The methodology was applied in the city of Athens, Greece, with the findings revealing that parking violations are not uniformly distributed but instead show distinct spatial and temporal patterns. Specifically, certain areas and times during the day exhibit considerably higher levels of illegal parking. For instance, commercial areas tend to experience more violations during business hours, while residential areas see more issues during evenings and weekends, mainly due to an increasing number of already parked cars and a lack of organized parking spaces. By providing a data-driven approach to identifying critical areas of illegal parking, city officials can better allocate enforcement resources and develop targeted strategies to mitigate this issue, highlighting the significant implications of the study for urban management and policy-making. Therefore, the main goal of this research is to contribute to the enhancement of urban mobility and the overall quality of life by addressing one of the most persistent challenges in city management.

非法停车是城市环境中的一个普遍问题,对交通流量、公共安全和街道景观的美观造成了严重的负面影响。本文介绍了一种识别和分析非法停车热点的创新方法。为此,我们开发了一个定制的 Web-GIS 平台,该平台采用众包方式,使市民能够报告他们遇到的违章停车的准确位置和类型。该平台收集这些数据,然后使用基于时空密度的带噪声应用空间聚类(ST-DBSCAN)算法对其进行分析。该方法被应用于希腊雅典市,研究结果表明,违章停车现象并不是均匀分布的,而是呈现出明显的时空模式。具体来说,白天的某些区域和时间的违章停车率要高得多。例如,商业区往往在营业时间违章较多,而住宅区则在晚上和周末违章较多,这主要是由于已经停放的车辆越来越多以及缺乏有序的停车位造成的。通过提供一种数据驱动的方法来识别违章停车的关键区域,城市官员可以更好地分配执法资源,并制定有针对性的策略来缓解这一问题,这凸显了本研究对城市管理和政策制定的重要意义。因此,本研究的主要目标是通过解决城市管理中最顽固的挑战之一,为提高城市流动性和整体生活质量做出贡献。
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引用次数: 0
Deep Network Capacitated Covering Location Model: Spatial Location-allocation Optimization of Community Healthcare Facilities in Consideration of Public Health Emergencies 深度网络容量覆盖定位模型:考虑公共卫生突发事件的社区医疗设施空间位置分配优化
IF 2 4区 社会学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-11-19 DOI: 10.1007/s12061-024-09619-1
Zhe Zhang, Zhi He, Yuan Yuan, Xi Chen

Equitable and efficient healthcare service is a critical issue for policymakers and planners in public health emergency events. However, current optimization methods of spatial location-allocation for healthcare facilities at community level often overlook the potential requirements stemming from outbreaks of infectious disease, which lead to biases in facility layout. This study proposes a deep network capacitated covering location model to optimize the spatial location-allocation of community healthcare facilities by considering the site suitability of facilities with an emphasis on emergency preparedness and residents’ access on foot. In the experimental analysis in Panyu district, Guangzhou, we establish the site suitability and access evaluation criteria to build a feature cube comprising 18 criteria maps. By labeling positive and negative samples for the deep site evaluation network model training, we input the feature cube to the model to identify suitable candidate sites. Then we evaluate the healthcare facility distribution against residents’ demands to optimize the spatial layout of healthcare facilities considering capacity constraints. The results indicate significant spatial disparities in community healthcare facility access, with the current distribution failing to meet demands. According to our approach, 637 suitable site locations as candidate sites are classified. Moreover, we find that only 51 additional facilities are needed to extend coverage to 91.2% of the population within a 30-minute walk. The proposed model outperforms the analytic hierarchy process by more accurately addressing residents’ actual healthcare needs. From a policy perspective, optimizing healthcare facility location-allocation using the proposed method improves equity and efficiency for residents at a walking scale, while maintaining emergency preparedness.

在突发公共卫生事件中,公平高效的医疗保健服务是决策者和规划者面临的关键问题。然而,目前社区医疗设施空间位置分配的优化方法往往忽略了传染病爆发可能产生的需求,导致设施布局出现偏差。本研究提出了一种深度网络容纳覆盖选址模型,通过考虑设施选址的适宜性来优化社区医疗设施的空间位置分配,重点关注应急准备和居民步行可达性。在广州市番禺区的实验分析中,我们建立了选址适宜性和可达性评价标准,构建了由 18 个标准图组成的特征立方体。通过标注正样本和负样本进行深度选址评估网络模型训练,我们将特征立方体输入模型以识别合适的候选选址。然后,我们根据居民的需求对医疗设施的分布进行评估,在考虑容量限制的情况下优化医疗设施的空间布局。结果表明,社区医疗设施使用的空间差异很大,目前的分布无法满足需求。根据我们的方法,共划分出 637 个合适的候选地点。此外,我们发现只需增加 51 个设施,就能将覆盖范围扩大到步行 30 分钟内 91.2% 的人口。通过更准确地满足居民的实际医疗需求,我们提出的模型优于层次分析法。从政策角度来看,使用所提出的方法优化医疗设施的位置分配,可以提高居民在步行范围内的公平性和效率,同时保持应急准备状态。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring Spatial Patterns and Heterogeneity in Rural Household Quality of Living: Insights from Eastern India 探索农村家庭生活质量的空间模式和异质性:印度东部的启示
IF 2 4区 社会学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-11-19 DOI: 10.1007/s12061-024-09620-8
Suranjan Majumder, Subham Roy, Prosenjit Kayal, Arghadeep Bose, Guneswar Barman, Debanjan Basak, Indrajit Roy Chowdhury

Rural household quality of living is a fundamental aspect that determines the overall standard of living and well-being experienced by families residing in rural areas. This study comprehensively examines spatial variations in rural household living conditions among 341 administrative blocks located within West Bengal. This study employs the Rural Household Quality of Living Index (RHQoLI) as an analytical tool to assess rural households’ housing, economic and social aspects. The RHQoLI computation using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) involves three indices - Housing Quality Index (HQoLI), Economic Quality Index (EQoLI), and Social Quality Index (SQoLI) - based on twelve indicators. The further analysis employed bivariate and univariate Local Indicators of Spatial Association(LISA) and Moran’s I techniques to examine spatial patterns and heterogeneity. The findings reveal significant regional disparities in the quality of living across various blocks located within West Bengal, with about 115 blocks reflecting low RHQoLI status exhibiting significant clustering patterns at 0.415. Regarding bivariate analysis, SQoLI exhibits a maximum clustering pattern at 0.393, followed by EQoLI and SQoLI. This comprehensive analysis offers insights into variations related to living conditions alongside emerging spatial clustering patterns prevalent within rural West Bengal, facilitating a better understanding of the socioeconomic landscape policymakers can leverage towards creating inclusive development in these areas.

农村家庭生活质量是决定农村家庭整体生活水平和幸福感的一个基本方面。本研究全面考察了西孟加拉邦 341 个行政区农村家庭生活条件的空间差异。本研究采用农村家庭生活质量指数(RHQoLI)作为分析工具,对农村家庭的住房、经济和社会方面进行评估。利用主成分分析法(PCA)计算的 RHQoLI 包括三个指数--基于十二个指标的住房质量指数(HQoLI)、经济质量指数(EQoLI)和社会质量指数(SQoLI)。进一步的分析采用了二元和单元的地方空间关联指标(LISA)和莫兰 I 技术来研究空间模式和异质性。研究结果表明,西孟加拉邦各区块的生活质量存在明显的地区差异,约 115 个区块的 RHQoLI 水平较低,呈现 0.415 的显著聚类模式。在双变量分析中,SQoLI 的聚类模式最大,为 0.393,其次是 EQoLI 和 SQoLI。这项综合分析深入揭示了西孟加拉邦农村地区与生活条件相关的变化以及新出现的空间聚类模式,有助于决策者更好地了解社会经济状况,从而在这些地区实现包容性发展。
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引用次数: 0
Effects of Pandemic Response Measures on Crime Counts in English and Welsh Local Authorities 大流行病应对措施对英格兰和威尔士地方当局犯罪数量的影响
IF 2 4区 社会学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-11-19 DOI: 10.1007/s12061-024-09614-6
Niloufar Pourshir Sefidi, Amin Shoari Nejad, Peter Mooney

The global response to the COVID-19 pandemic between January 2020 and late 2021 saw extraordinary measures such as lockdowns and other restrictions being placed on citizens’ movements in many of the world’s major cities. In many of these cities, lockdowns required citizens to stay at home; non-essential business premises were closed, and movement was severely restricted. In this paper, we investigate the effect of these lockdowns and other pandemic response measures on crime counts within the local authorities of England and Wales. Using openly accessible crime records from major police forces in the UK from 2015 to 2023, we discuss the impacts of lockdowns on the incidences of crime. We show that as time passed and citizens’ response to the imposed measures eased, most types of crime gradually returned to pre-pandemic norms whilst others remained below their pre-pandemic levels. Furthermore, our work shows that the effects of pandemic response measures were not uniform across local authorities. We also discuss how the findings of this study contribute to law enforcement initiatives.

2020 年 1 月至 2021 年末,在全球应对 COVID-19 大流行病的过程中,世界上许多大城市都采取了非常措施,如封锁和对公民行动的其他限制。在许多城市,封锁要求市民呆在家中;非必要的商业场所被关闭,行动受到严格限制。在本文中,我们调查了这些封锁措施和其他大流行应对措施对英格兰和威尔士地方当局内犯罪数量的影响。我们利用从 2015 年至 2023 年英国主要警力公开获取的犯罪记录,讨论了封锁对犯罪发生率的影响。我们的研究表明,随着时间的推移和公民对强制措施反应的缓和,大多数类型的犯罪逐渐恢复到流行前的水平,而其他类型的犯罪仍低于流行前的水平。此外,我们的研究还表明,大流行应对措施对各地方当局的影响并不一致。我们还讨论了本研究的结果如何有助于执法行动。
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引用次数: 0
Spatial Autocorrelation Methods in Identifying Migration Patterns: Case Study of Slovakia 确定移民模式的空间自相关方法:斯洛伐克案例研究
IF 2 4区 社会学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-11-14 DOI: 10.1007/s12061-024-09615-5
Loránt Pregi, Ladislav Novotný

The collapse of the socialist regime led to significant changes in migration patterns, garnering considerable attention in geographical research. However, despite the increased interest, many studies on internal migration lack a detailed analysis of its spatial aspects. Spatial autocorrelation methods can reveal spatial patterns, but so far they have not been applied in the detailed research of internal migration in post-socialist countries. The aim of this study is to explore the spatial patterns of internal migration with regard to intra-regional and inter-regional migration processes using selected indicators of spatial autocorrelation (Global Moran’s I, Anselin local Moran’s I and Getis-Ord Gi* statistic) with Slovakia as a case study. A partial goal is to evaluate the benefits of applying these methods in the assessment of internal migration. Local indicators of spatial autocorrelation demonstrated significant differentiation of both intra-regional and inter-regional migration processes. The dominant intra-regional process is the decentralization of the population, which is very intensive in the regions of the largest towns and cities. Inter-regional migration displays spatial polarisation, emphasizing the importance of the location of key economic centres. The methodology employed in this study clearly displays the clusters of municipalities with above-average and below-average values. This approach enables the identification and cartographic interpretation of specific municipalities where migration contributes the most to the spatial redistribution of the population. The study serves as a valuable framework for similar analyses, emphasizing the broader applicability of spatial autocorrelation methods in studying migration patterns.

社会主义制度的崩溃导致了移民模式的重大变化,引起了地理研究的极大关注。然而,尽管关注度有所提高,但许多关于国内移民的研究缺乏对其空间方面的详细分析。空间自相关方法可以揭示空间模式,但迄今为止还没有应用于后社会主义国家国内移民的详细研究。本研究的目的是以斯洛伐克为案例,利用选定的空间自相关指标(全球莫兰 I、安塞林地方莫兰 I 和 Getis-Ord Gi* 统计),探讨地区内和地区间移民过程中的国内移民空间模式。部分目标是评估在评估国内移民时应用这些方法的益处。空间自相关性的地方指标表明,区域内和区域间的移民过程存在显著差异。区域内的主要过程是人口的分散化,这在最大的城镇地区非常密集。区域间迁移呈现出空间两极化,强调了主要经济中心位置的重要性。本研究采用的方法清楚地显示了高于平均值和低于平均值的城市群。通过这种方法,可以识别和绘制出移民对人口空间再分布贡献最大的特定城市。这项研究为类似分析提供了一个有价值的框架,强调了空间自相关方法在研究移徙模式方面更广泛的适用性。
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引用次数: 0
The Impact of Angular Effects on Nighttime Economy Observations: Determining the Optimal Observation Angle of Nighttime Light Remote Sensing 角度效应对夜间经济观测的影响:确定夜间光线遥感的最佳观测角度
IF 2 4区 社会学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-11-11 DOI: 10.1007/s12061-024-09616-4
Caihong Ou, Fei Tang, Xiaohui Deng, Lin Wang

The nighttime economy is instrumental in driving economic growth, particularly in the post-pandemic era. Nighttime Light (NTL) data is a key source in nighttime economy remote sensing study, with its angular effect directly affecting result accuracy. This study compares the accuracy of identifying nighttime economic agglomerations (NEAs) in Shanghai using Black Marble NTL and POI data at three observation angles: near-nadir, off-nadir, and all-angle. The results indicate that under all three angles, landmark NEAs can be identified fairly well. However, near-nadir demonstrates superior sample library identification accuracy and Theil index performance compared to all-angle and off-nadir. The study reveals that near-nadir observations offer higher accuracy and better suppression of “pseudo-accuracy units”, making them more suitable for studying the nighttime economy. Furthermore, the study analyzes the spatial distribution characteristics of NEAs in Shanghai and finds a distinct “center-periphery” development pattern, suggesting imbalances in overall development. The presence of buildings with scattered high-low distribution and complex urban structures contributes to the variations in NEA identification under different satellite-observed angles. This study provides valuable insights into selecting the appropriate satellite-observed angle for studying NEAs using NTL data. It also explores the potential application of Black Marble NTL data products in socioeconomic remote sensing.

夜间经济在推动经济增长方面发挥着重要作用,特别是在后大流行病时代。夜光(NTL)数据是夜间经济遥感研究的关键数据源,其角度效应直接影响结果的准确性。本研究比较了黑云母 NTL 和 POI 数据在近天顶、离天顶和全角度三个观测角度下识别上海夜间经济集聚区(NEA)的精度。结果表明,在所有三个角度下,地标性 NEA 都能很好地识别。然而,与全角度和偏北角度相比,近天顶角度的样本库识别精度和 Theil 指数性能更高。研究表明,近天顶观测具有更高的精度和更好的抑制 "伪精度单位 "的能力,因此更适合研究夜间经济。此外,研究还分析了上海近地天体的空间分布特征,发现了明显的 "中心-外围 "发展模式,表明整体发展不平衡。高低错落的建筑分布和复杂的城市结构是不同卫星观测角度下核辐射区识别差异的原因。这项研究为利用 NTL 数据研究核能源区选择适当的卫星观测角度提供了宝贵的见解。它还探讨了黑云母近地轨道数据产品在社会经济遥感中的潜在应用。
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引用次数: 0
Mapping of Spatial Variance of Family Policy that Could Increase Fertility: Indices for 23 OECD Countries across 21 Year Period 可能增加生育率的家庭政策空间差异图:21 年间 23 个经合组织国家的指数
IF 2 4区 社会学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-11-05 DOI: 10.1007/s12061-024-09613-7
Monika Šmeringaiová

In a period of falling fertility rates and increasing number of various family policies (FPs) that are designed to address this trend, our study explores spatial and temporal variance of such FP measures which could be associated with increased fertility. They have been implemented in a range of countries, but their variance has not yet been systematically mapped. We employ a novel approach, examining gender and economic dimensions of FP measures to develop FP indices scoring 23 European OECD countries throughout the 2000–2021 period and uncover spatial similarities and discrepancies therein. Our findings indicate that degenderizing FP measures are increasingly being adopted across countries, with both genderizing and generous financial measures also enduring. Interestingly, despite an overall decline in fertility rates, FP has become more robust across countries according to the indices. We agree with recent studies that degenderizing FPs are most common in Nordic countries and least so in Central and Eastern Europe. We provide evidence that Hungary and Estonia are exceptions, with different types and more extensive FP. We also found that countries categorised in different contextual clusters sometimes score similarly strongly on genderizing FP (Czechia, Luxembourg, Spain) or weakly on financial FP measures (Slovakia, the UK, Greece). In countries where index scores increased only recently (e.g., Switzerland, Spain), we expect potential increases in fertility rates in the future.

在生育率下降和旨在应对这一趋势的各种家庭政策(FPs)不断增加的时期,我们的研究探讨了可能与生育率上升有关的这些家庭政策措施的空间和时间差异。这些措施已在多个国家实施,但尚未对其变异性进行系统测绘。我们采用了一种新颖的方法,研究了计划生育措施的性别和经济维度,制定了 2000-2021 年期间 23 个欧洲经合组织国家的计划生育指数,并揭示了其中的空间相似性和差异。我们的研究结果表明,各国正在越来越多地采取计划生育措施,性别化和慷慨的财政措施也持续存在。有趣的是,尽管生育率总体上有所下降,但根据各项指数,各国的计划生育措施却变得更加有力。我们同意近期研究的观点,即计划生育性别化在北欧国家最为普遍,而在中欧和东欧则最少。我们提供的证据表明,匈牙利和爱沙尼亚是例外,它们的 FP 类型不同,范围更广。我们还发现,被归类为不同背景集群的国家有时在性别化 FP 方面得分较高(捷克、卢森堡、西班牙),有时在财务 FP 方面得分较低(斯洛伐克、英国、希腊)。在指数得分最近才上升的国家(如瑞士、西班牙),我们预计未来生育率可能会上升。
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引用次数: 0
Predicting Public Violent Crime Using Register and OpenStreetMap Data: A Risk Terrain Modeling Approach Across Three Cities of Varying Size 利用登记册和 OpenStreetMap 数据预测公共暴力犯罪:跨越三个不同规模城市的风险地形建模方法
IF 2 4区 社会学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-10-31 DOI: 10.1007/s12061-024-09609-3
Karl Kronkvist, Anton Borg, Martin Boldt, Manne Gerell

The aim of the current study is to estimate whether spatial data on place features from OpenStreetMap (OSM) produce results similar to those when employing register data to predict future violent crime in public across three Swedish cities of varying sizes. Using violent crime in public as an outcome, four models for each city are produced using a Risk Terrain Modeling approach. One using spatial data on place features from register data and one from OSM, one model with prior violent crime excluded and one with prior crime included. The results show that several place features are significantly associated with violent crime in public independent of using register or OSM data as input. While models using register data seem to produce more accurate and efficient predictions than OSM data for the two smaller cities, the difference for the largest city is negligible indicating that the models provide similar results. As such, OSM place feature data may be of value when predicting the spatial distribution of future violent crime in public and provide results similar to those when using register data, at least when employed in larger compared to smaller cities. Possibilities, limitations, and avenues for future research when using OSM data in place-based criminological research are discussed.

本研究的目的是估算 OpenStreetMap (OSM) 中关于地点特征的空间数据是否能产生与使用登记数据预测瑞典三个不同规模城市未来公共场所暴力犯罪相似的结果。以公共场所暴力犯罪为结果,使用风险地形建模方法为每个城市建立了四个模型。一个模型使用登记数据中的地点特征空间数据,另一个使用 OSM 数据,一个模型不包括之前的暴力犯罪,另一个模型包括之前的犯罪。结果表明,无论使用登记数据还是 OSM 数据作为输入,一些地方特征都与公共场所的暴力犯罪有显著关联。对于两个较小的城市,使用登记册数据的模型似乎比 OSM 数据的预测更准确、更有效,但对于最大的城市,两者之间的差异可以忽略不计,这表明这些模型提供了相似的结果。因此,在预测未来公共场所暴力犯罪的空间分布时,OSM地点特征数据可能很有价值,并能提供与使用登记册数据类似的结果,至少在大城市与小城市中使用时是如此。本文讨论了在基于地点的犯罪学研究中使用 OSM 数据的可能性、局限性和未来研究的途径。
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