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Digital Inclusive Finance, Spatial Spillover Effects and Relative Rural Poverty Alleviation: Evidence from China 数字普惠金融、空间溢出效应与农村相对减贫:来自中国的证据
IF 2 4区 社会学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-05-16 DOI: 10.1007/s12061-024-09580-z
Panpan Pei, Shunyi Zhang, Guangxia Zhou

How to govern relative rural poverty is the key and difficulty in eliminating poverty and achieving common prosperity in China. With the rapid development of digital economy, digital inclusive finance is playing an increasingly fundamental role in poverty alleviation. As an important new financial form, whether and how digital inclusive finance affects relative rural poverty is not yet known. Based on new economic geography, this paper empirically tests the direct and spatial impacts of digital financial inclusion on relative rural poverty alleviation by constructing spatial econometric models and using panel data from 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) in China from 2012 to 2019. The study found that there is a significant positive spatial correlation in relative rural poverty; the development of digital inclusive finance has a significant inhibitory effect on relative rural poverty. Meanwhile, the development of digital inclusive finance in the local province also has a negative spatial spillover effect on rural relative poverty in surrounding areas. Therefore, it is necessary to boost the development of digital inclusive finance, improve the coordination of inclusive finance between regions, and promote inter-regional economic cooperation in the future. Poverty alleviation remains a challenge in the world, especially in developing countries. Digital inclusive finance, which is a new form of inclusive finance and digital economy widely applied in China, could play an increasingly fundamental role in poverty alleviation in rural areas. In this study, a spatial econometric model (SAR) is constructed based on the new economic geography, and the digital financial inclusion index is integrated with macro-economic data at a provincial level in China from 2012 to 2019. The direct and spatial impacts of digital inclusive finance on poverty reduction in rural areas were accessed using the developed model. Results show that digital inclusive finance can significantly reduce relative poverty in rural areas in China. More importantly, it is indicated that there is a significant positive spatial correlation in relative rural poverty, and digital inclusive finance has a negative spatial spillover effect on relative rural poverty, which is supported by a series of endogeneity and robustness tests, such as substitution of relative poverty, replacing models, and using alternative specifications. Recommendations on implementations in poverty alleviation are proposed based on the results of this study. This paper further complements the hot research field on finance development and income inequality. Our findings offer insights into the development of inclusive financial policies for relative rural poverty alleviation in other countries, especially in developing countries with similar backgrounds to China.

如何治理农村相对贫困,是我国消除贫困、实现共同富裕的关键和难点。随着数字经济的快速发展,数字普惠金融在脱贫攻坚中发挥着越来越重要的基础性作用。作为一种重要的新型金融形态,数字普惠金融是否以及如何影响农村相对贫困尚未可知。本文基于新经济地理学,通过构建空间计量经济模型,利用中国31个省(自治区、直辖市)2012-2019年的面板数据,实证检验了数字普惠金融对农村相对贫困的直接影响和空间影响。研究发现,农村相对贫困存在显著的空间正相关性;数字普惠金融的发展对农村相对贫困具有显著的抑制作用。同时,本省数字普惠金融发展对周边地区农村相对贫困也有负空间溢出效应。因此,未来有必要推动数字普惠金融的发展,提高区域间普惠金融的协调性,促进区域间经济合作。扶贫仍然是世界,尤其是发展中国家面临的挑战。数字普惠金融作为一种新型的普惠金融形式和数字经济在中国的广泛应用,可以在农村扶贫中发挥越来越重要的基础性作用。本研究基于新经济地理构建了空间计量经济模型(SAR),并将数字普惠金融指数与中国 2012 年至 2019 年省级宏观经济数据相结合。利用建立的模型获取了数字普惠金融对农村地区减贫的直接影响和空间影响。结果表明,数字普惠金融能够显著减少中国农村地区的相对贫困。更重要的是,研究表明农村相对贫困存在显著的空间正相关性,数字普惠金融对农村相对贫困具有负的空间溢出效应,并通过替代相对贫困、替换模型、使用替代规范等一系列内生性和稳健性检验得到了支持。根据研究结果提出了扶贫实施建议。本文进一步补充了金融发展与收入不平等这一热门研究领域。我们的研究结果为其他国家,尤其是与中国背景相似的发展中国家制定普惠金融政策,促进农村相对贫困的缓解提供了启示。
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引用次数: 0
The Impact of Public Investment on Urban Growth Under Different Scenarios by Using the SLEUTH as a Forecasting Model: The Case of Konya/Turkey 使用 SLEUTH 作为预测模型,研究不同情景下公共投资对城市增长的影响:土耳其科尼亚案例
IF 2 4区 社会学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-05-14 DOI: 10.1007/s12061-024-09581-y
Ceren Yagci, Fatih Iscan

This article’s main focus has been the Rink Road Project in Konya, which is slated for construction despite serious urban growth issues. The study looked at how this project may impact urban growth in order to provide knowledge that would guide future land use policies and plans for sustainable urban development. The urban growth trend 2043 which is the target year of the environmental plan, and 2055 were examined using the SLEUTH Urban Growth model. Six different SLEUTH model scenarios that take a different tack on urban growth were assessed in alternative futures. This study also tries to figure out; assesses a range of potential spatial transformations around the planned Konya Ring Road (KRR), incorporating the first Environmental Plan established post the enactment of Turkey's Law No. 6360 into the scenario planning. According to future predictions of urban growth, a flexible Konya Environmental Plan (KEP) in the short term could potentially intensify the adverse effects of urban expansion associated with the KRR in the absence of a stringent KEP. Long-term observations from the examined scenarios reveal a significantly higher projected urban growth in cases where an KEP is absent. If current land policies continue without significant modifications, the completion of the KRR is expected to accelerate urban growth in Konya, leading to a substantial transformation of natural areas into urban zones.

本文的主要关注点是科尼亚的林克路项目,尽管存在严重的城市增长问题,该项目仍计划开工建设。本研究探讨了该项目可能对城市增长产生的影响,以便为未来的土地利用政策和可持续城市发展计划提供指导。使用 SLEUTH 城市增长模型对环境规划目标年 2043 年和 2055 年的城市增长趋势进行了研究。在替代未来中,对六种不同的 SLEUTH 模型方案进行了评估,这些方案对城市增长采取了不同的策略。本研究还试图找出并评估规划中的科尼亚环路(KRR)周边一系列潜在的空间变化,并将土耳其第 6360 号法律颁布后制定的首个环境规划纳入情景规划中。根据对未来城市发展的预测,短期内灵活的孔亚环境规划(KEP)可能会在没有严格的孔亚环境规划的情况下,加剧与孔亚环路相关的城市扩张所带来的不利影响。从所研究的方案中进行的长期观察显示,在没有环境规划的情况下,预计城市增长速度会明显加快。如果不对现行土地政策进行重大修改而继续实施,预计 KRR 的完工将加速科尼亚的城市发展,导致自然区域大幅转变为城市区域。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluating Spatial Accessibility to COVID-19 Vaccination Sites based on Fine-Scale Population Distributions and Heterogeneous Travel Modes: A Case Study in Xiangtan, China 基于精细人口分布和异质旅行方式评估 COVID-19 疫苗接种点的空间可达性:中国湘潭案例研究
IF 2 4区 社会学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-04-25 DOI: 10.1007/s12061-024-09574-x
Wentao Yang, Fengjie Wang, Yihan You, Xiafan Wan, Sijie Cheng, Zhixiong Fang

Understanding the inequity in spatial accessibility to COVID-19 vaccination sites is beneficial for the government to optimize vaccine resources. Nevertheless, the result of evaluating spatial accessibility to COVID-19 vaccination sites may be directly affected by the lack of fine-scale and accurate population distribution information in both urban and rural areas. In addition, the choice of travel modes related to different age groups has not been incorporated into existing methods well. Consequently, this study proposes a framework to evaluate spatial accessibility to COVID-19 vaccination sites based on fine-scale population distributions and heterogeneous travel modes. A divide-and-conquer strategy is first presented to estimate the fine-scale populations in both urban and rural areas. A hybrid time distance considering heterogeneous travel modes and a population-weighted proximity indicator are then defined to evaluate spatial accessibility for each age group. The experimental results from Xiangtan, China, show that (1) the divide-and-conquer strategy can effectively predict the urban and rural populations. (2) Similar clustering patterns of spatial accessibility are observed for each age group. (3) Inequities have been confirmed at the county level. The main findings in this study can provide valuable information supporting the spatial optimization of existing COVID-19 vaccination sites.

了解 COVID-19 疫苗接种点空间可达性的不平等有利于政府优化疫苗资源。然而,由于缺乏精细、准确的城乡人口分布信息,COVID-19 疫苗接种点空间可达性的评估结果可能会受到直接影响。此外,与不同年龄组相关的出行方式选择也没有被很好地纳入现有方法中。因此,本研究提出了一个框架,根据精细的人口分布和不同的出行方式来评估 COVID-19 疫苗接种点的空间可达性。首先提出了一种分而治之的策略来估算城市和农村地区的精细人口规模。然后定义了考虑异质出行方式的混合时间距离和人口加权邻近指标,以评估各年龄组的空间可达性。中国湘潭的实验结果表明:(1)分而治之的策略可以有效预测城市和农村人口。(2) 每个年龄组的空间可达性都有相似的聚类模式。(3) 在县一级证实了不平等现象。本研究的主要发现可为现有 COVID-19 疫苗接种点的空间优化提供有价值的信息支持。
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引用次数: 0
Correction to: Convergence and Catch‑Up of the Region Types in the Central and Eastern European Countries 更正:中东欧国家地区类型的趋同与赶超
IF 2 4区 社会学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-04-22 DOI: 10.1007/s12061-024-09579-6
Zoltán Egri, Imre Lengyel
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引用次数: 0
Spatial Analysis of Hospital Accessibility in Nanjing: The Role of Community Health Service Centers 南京市医院可及性的空间分析:社区卫生服务中心的作用
IF 2 4区 社会学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-04-15 DOI: 10.1007/s12061-024-09577-8
Zhichang Cai, Tong Cheng, Ying Li, ChengHe Guan, Jiweng Tang

Amidst the spectrum of medical facilities, community health service centers (CHSCs) play an important role in alleviating the burden on hospitals. However, the intricate interaction between hospitals and CHSCs in accessibility analysis is often overlooked. To fill this gap, this study employs an enhanced gravity model to evaluate spatial accessibility of hospitals, focusing on both subdistrict and CHSC levels. The findings show that tertiary hospitals, providing the highest quality medical services, are concentrated in the central districts of Nanjing. Moreover, prevailing CHSC deployment plans risk an inequitable allocation of medical resources at the subdistrict level. In response, we proposed a collaborative mechanism that synergizing hospitals and CHSCs, built on a reciprocal medical alliance referral system. Specifically, our recommendations include: (1) promoting CHSCs to engage in alleviating the patient treatment load borne by tertiary hospitals in the central districts; and (2) balancing between the quality and quantity of CHSCs in the peripheral districts to increase accessibility for small-sized CHSCs in remote locations. This study contributes to the existing literature by incorporating CHSCs into hospital accessibility analysis and refining the framework for the spatial distribution of medical facility in alignment with established policies.

在众多医疗设施中,社区卫生服务中心在减轻医院负担方面发挥着重要作用。然而,在可达性分析中,医院与社区卫生服务中心之间错综复杂的互动关系往往被忽视。为了填补这一空白,本研究采用了一个增强的重力模型来评估医院的空间可达性,重点关注分区和社区卫生服务中心两个层面。研究结果表明,提供最高质量医疗服务的三级医院主要集中在南京的中心区。此外,现行的社区卫生服务中心部署计划有可能导致医疗资源在分区一级的不公平分配。为此,我们建议在互惠的医疗联盟转诊制度基础上,建立医院与社区卫生服务中心协同合作机制。具体而言,我们的建议包括(1)促进社区卫生服务中心参与减轻中心区三级医院的病人治疗负担;(2)平衡边缘区社区卫生服务中心的质量和数量,提高偏远地区小型社区卫生服务中心的可及性。本研究将社区健康服务中心纳入医院可达性分析,并根据既定政策完善医疗设施空间分布框架,对现有文献有所贡献。
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引用次数: 0
The Impacts of Visible Green Spaces on the Mental well-being of University Students 可见绿地对大学生心理健康的影响
IF 2 4区 社会学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-04-13 DOI: 10.1007/s12061-024-09578-7
Yihang Bai, Ruoyu Wang, Linchuan Yang, Yantao Ling, Mengqiu Cao

The benefits of green spaces on individuals’ health have been widely acknowledged due to their inherent natural qualities. Currently, university students are experiencing significantly higher levels of mental health problems than other social groups. There is a scarcity of studies examining the association between built environment factors and mental health issues among university students, particularly in the Chinese context. University campuses in China are physically isolated, secluded communities, and in this respect, they differ markedly from the spatial organisation patterns of Western universities. Therefore, this study focuses on the correlation between the extent of green space exposure within closed university campuses and the occurrence of mental health issues among resident students. A deep-learning methodology incorporating streetscape images, remote sensing data, and multilevel linear modelling is employed in order to facilitate a comprehensive analysis. The results demonstrate a negative correlation between green space exposure on campus and the level of mental health issues among university students. Individual socio-demographic characteristics, such as whether a person has a partner, are also found to influence the level of mental health issues that they experience. In addition, a significant relationship is found between travel patterns and mental health issues, with students who walked regularly having a lower incidence of mental health issues than those who drove. Our research indicates that, in order to foster healthier communities and enhance social inclusion, urban planners should prioritise the development of greener campuses and urban transport services to improve accessibility to green spaces.

绿地因其固有的自然特质,对个人健康的益处已得到广泛认可。目前,大学生的心理健康问题明显高于其他社会群体。有关建筑环境因素与大学生心理健康问题之间关系的研究很少,尤其是在中国。中国的大学校园是与世隔绝的隐蔽社区,在这方面与西方大学的空间组织模式有明显不同。因此,本研究重点关注封闭式大学校园内绿地暴露程度与住校生心理健康问题发生率之间的相关性。为了便于进行综合分析,本研究采用了结合街景图像、遥感数据和多层次线性建模的深度学习方法。结果表明,校园绿地暴露与大学生心理健康问题水平之间存在负相关。研究还发现,个人的社会人口特征(如是否有伴侣)也会影响其心理健康问题的程度。此外,研究还发现,出行方式与心理健康问题之间存在重要关系,经常步行的学生比开车的学生心理健康问题发生率更低。我们的研究表明,为了培养更健康的社区并增强社会包容性,城市规划者应优先发展绿色校园和城市交通服务,以改善绿地的可达性。
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引用次数: 0
Why Don’t More Commuters Consider Buses for Their Work Trip?—A Geographically Weighted Segmented Logistic Regression Modelling Approach 为什么没有更多通勤者在上班途中考虑乘坐公交车?
IF 2 4区 社会学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-04-04 DOI: 10.1007/s12061-024-09576-9
Payel Roy, Karthik K. Srinivasan, Ganesh Ambi Ramakrishnan

Empirical data from several cities worldwide show that low consideration rates of bus transit constitute an important reason for declining transit mode share. This trend raises a critical question: why do not more commuters consider buses for travel? The aim of this paper is to investigate the key deterrents to bus transit consideration among commuters. Consideration refers to the decision of an individual to include a given mode in his/her choice set. Along this line, this study focuses on two important directions. The first is to gain an understanding of how the key factors and their influence on consideration propensity differ across market segments based on personal vehicle availability and accessibility. The second is to quantify the spatial heterogeneity in the influence of those key factors across geographical locations. A new geographically weighted segmented logistic regression (GWSLR) model is proposed to address these research issues. The model is developed using household survey data from a sample of work-commuters from Chennai city, India. The findings reveal that neglecting either segmentation or spatial heterogeneity cannot only result in inaccurate model predictions and inferences, but also lead to sub-optimal policy interventions. Results show that factors influencing consideration differ significantly across segments based on captivity and accessibility. Choice users within walking distance to bus stops can benefit from direct bus service, whereas those beyond walking distance prioritise first-mile connectivity. Results also highlight significant variations in the influence of different factors across locations. Improved walkability in central business districts (CBD) could increase consideration, while non-CBD areas should focus on first-mile connectivity. Finally, this study illustrates that customised policy interventions for specific segments and locations can be more effective in enhancing bus consideration than segment-agnostic or geographically uniform policies.

来自全球多个城市的经验数据显示,公交出行考虑率低是公交出行比例下降的一个重要原因。这一趋势提出了一个关键问题:为什么没有更多的乘客考虑乘坐公交车出行?本文旨在研究阻碍乘客考虑公交出行的主要因素。所谓考虑,是指个人决定将某种交通方式纳入其选择范围。按照这一思路,本研究侧重于两个重要方向。首先是了解不同细分市场中基于个人车辆可用性和可达性的关键因素及其对考虑倾向的影响有何不同。其次是量化这些关键因素对不同地理位置影响的空间异质性。为解决这些研究问题,我们提出了一个新的地理加权分段逻辑回归(GWSLR)模型。该模型是利用印度钦奈市上班族样本的家庭调查数据建立的。研究结果表明,忽视细分或空间异质性不仅会导致模型预测和推论不准确,还会导致政策干预措施达不到最佳效果。研究结果表明,影响考虑因素的因素在不同细分市场之间存在显著差异,这些因素基于俘虏性和可达性。在步行距离内选择公交站点的用户可以从直达公交服务中获益,而步行距离以外的用户则优先考虑第一英里的连通性。结果还凸显了不同因素对不同地点的影响存在显著差异。提高中央商务区(CBD)的步行便利性可以增加考虑,而非中央商务区地区则应将重点放在第一英里的连通性上。最后,本研究表明,针对特定人群和地点的定制化政策干预措施在提高公交车使用率方面可能比与人群无关或地域统一的政策更为有效。
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引用次数: 0
Gated or Ungated? A Case Study on Walkability Measurement for Urban Communities 有门禁还是无门禁?城市社区步行能力测量案例研究
IF 2 4区 社会学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-04-02 DOI: 10.1007/s12061-024-09575-w
Mengyuan Li, Hao Wang, Jue Wang, Hanlin Zhou, Dong Li

The walkability is closely related to the lifestyle and health of local residents. Unreasonable community design may result in spatially segregated spaces, creating walking barriers for residents and reducing walking accessibility. If a community’s physical layout can be optimized through better walking-related planning at the community level, people would be more convenient to reach more facilities with a better walking accessibility. A microscale measurement method for walkability at the community level is necessary to assist in community planning. This study developed a new measurement of walkability using a hexagon-based adaptive crystal growth algorithm and verified its effectiveness by examining the impact of gated communities on walkability. Taking three communities in Beijing as cases, this study created two kinds of accessibility planes (with-wall and no-wall) to compare changes in walkability between gated and open communities. The findings show that gate and wall removal can partially improve community walkability and that the algorithm can accurately measure community walkability in different scenarios. The proposed algorithm provides a new perspective for walkability measurements and offers a scientific tool for people-oriented community planning.

步行能力与当地居民的生活方式和健康息息相关。不合理的社区设计会造成空间上的隔离,给居民的步行造成障碍,降低步行可达性。如果能在社区层面通过更好的步行相关规划来优化社区的物理布局,人们就能更方便地到达更多设施,步行可达性也会更好。因此,有必要在社区层面对步行可达性进行微观测量,以协助社区规划。本研究利用基于六边形的自适应晶体生长算法开发了一种新的步行可达性测量方法,并通过研究门禁社区对步行可达性的影响验证了该方法的有效性。本研究以北京的三个社区为例,创建了两种无障碍平面(有围墙和无围墙),以比较门禁社区和开放社区之间步行能力的变化。研究结果表明,拆除大门和围墙可以部分改善社区步行能力,该算法可以准确测量不同场景下的社区步行能力。所提出的算法为步行能力测量提供了一个新的视角,为以人为本的社区规划提供了一个科学工具。
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引用次数: 0
Housing Wellbeing and Settlement Intentions of Skilled Migrants in China: the Effects of Subjective Housing Feelings and Objective Housing Outcomes 中国技术移民的住房福祉和定居意向:主观住房感受和客观住房结果的影响
IF 2 4区 社会学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-03-22 DOI: 10.1007/s12061-024-09573-y
Haitao Du, Mengran Xu, Yiqian Wang, Lin Chen

Due to a shortage of qualified professionals, many international cities have implemented a range of policies to attract skilled migrants and retain them for permanent work in destination cities, aiming to take advantage of the globalized competition. Despite being relatively understudied, the role of housing is of utmost importance, especially if skilled migrants can be attracted to work and live in destination cities permanently. This study conceptualized housing wellbeing as subjective housing feelings and objective housing outcomes, aiming to disentangle the relationship between housing wellbeing and settlement intentions. Based on the 2019 questionnaire survey in Guangzhou, this study found that skilled migrants who have become homeowners in Guangzhou have a higher propensity to settle in Guangzhou than those without homeownership. Also, this study found an inverted U-shaped relationship between the number of rooms and settlement intentions. Moreover, when the housing size per person is between 16 and 20 m2, housing size per person is positively associated with settlement intentions; nevertheless, when the housing size per person is below 16 m2 or above 20 m2, there is nil relation between housing size per person and settlement intentions. Finally, although skilled migrants are not satisfied with the current housing situation, they are still willing to settle in Guangzhou permanently. This study has extended the knowledge of housing wellbeing and contributed to profoundly understanding the complex settlement intentions of skilled migrants.

由于缺乏合格的专业人才,许多国际城市实施了一系列政策,以吸引技术移民并留住他们在目的地城市长期工作,从而在全球化竞争中占据优势。尽管对住房问题的研究相对较少,但住房的作用却极为重要,尤其是在吸引技术移民在目的地城市长期工作和生活的情况下。本研究将住房幸福感概念化为主观住房感受和客观住房结果,旨在厘清住房幸福感与定居意向之间的关系。基于2019年在广州的问卷调查,本研究发现,在广州拥有住房的技术移民比没有住房的技术移民有更高的定居倾向。同时,本研究还发现房间数量与定居意愿之间存在倒 U 型关系。此外,当人均住房面积在 16 至 20 平方米之间时,人均住房面积与定居意向呈正相关;然而,当人均住房面积低于 16 平方米或高于 20 平方米时,人均住房面积与定居意向之间的关系为零。最后,尽管技术移民对目前的住房状况并不满意,但他们仍然愿意在广州永久定居。这项研究扩展了人们对住房福利的认识,有助于深刻理解技术移民复杂的定居意向。
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引用次数: 0
An Application of Scan Statistics in Identification and Analysis of Hotspot of Crime against Women in Rajasthan, India 扫描统计在识别和分析印度拉贾斯坦邦侵害妇女犯罪热点中的应用
IF 2 4区 社会学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-03-14 DOI: 10.1007/s12061-024-09572-z
Poonam K. Saravag, Rushi Kumar B.

Crime against women (CAW) is not a present-day problem but has been prevalent in the world through the ages and since the beginning of civilizations. The cases of CAW have been increasing in almost all parts of the world and India is no exception. The distribution of CAW cases has not been found uniform across the country. The evidence of heterogeneity of cases has been a concern. Rajasthan, the largest state in India, has witnessed a very high surge in CAW in recent years. Therefore, there arises a need to study and analyze the pattern of CAW to identify the areas with high intensity for prevention and control. The CAW data from the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) website for the period 2014 to 2021 and the population census data of 2011 are used for the analysis. The Statistical analysis software, SaTScan, is employed for hotspot (areas with a high concentration of crimes) detection. Python programming is used to compute the data’s trend or pattern through visualization and descriptive statistics. In addition, the simple exponential smoothing method is applied for predicting the CAW for the year 2021. Our work elucidates Jhalawar, Baran, Kota, Bundi, Sawai Madhopur, and Chittorgarh districts as consistently occurring hotspots of CAW in the state. A comparative study of the hotspots found is made with the result obtained from the descriptive analysis. The trend in the data explains the years 2017 and 2019 as trough and crest of CAW cases. The hotspot detected using the forecast value of 2021 appears to be the same districts as for the period 2014 to 2020. Our work concludes that the consistency and the most likely cluster of CAW are distributed distinctly. We also found that the hotspot of CAW is not by chance but has certain man-made reasons. Most of the clusters have been identified as districts sharing boundaries with adjacent states. This further implies that if sincere efforts to collaborate with the government of the adjacent states like Madhya Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Gujarat, the incidences resulting in detrimental effects due to CAW could reduce effectively and significantly. Thus, our study may help the government, law enforcement agencies, police organizations, judiciaries, and other stakeholders to optimize their scarce resources most effectively to curb such incidents.

针对妇女的犯罪(CAW)并不是现在才出现的问题,而是自古以来、自文明诞生以来就在世界上普遍存在的问题。世界各地的侵害妇女案件几乎都在增加,印度也不例外。印度全国的女性外阴残割病例分布并不均匀。病例的异质性证据一直令人担忧。拉贾斯坦邦是印度最大的邦,近年来,该邦的女性外阴残割病例激增。因此,有必要研究和分析 CAW 的模式,以确定预防和控制的高强度地区。分析中使用了国家犯罪记录局(NCRB)网站提供的 2014 年至 2021 年的家庭暴力数据和 2011 年的人口普查数据。统计分析软件 SaTScan 用于热点(犯罪高发区)检测。Python 编程用于通过可视化和描述性统计计算数据的趋势或模式。此外,还采用了简单的指数平滑法来预测 2021 年的 CAW。我们的工作阐明了 Jhalawar、Baran、Kota、Bundi、Sawai Madhopur 和 Chittorgarh 等地区是该州持续出现的干旱缺水热点地区。我们将发现的热点地区与描述性分析得出的结果进行了比较研究。数据趋势表明,2017 年和 2019 年是 CAW 案件的低谷和波峰。使用 2021 年预测值发现的热点似乎与 2014 年至 2020 年期间的地区相同。我们的工作得出结论,CAW 的一致性和最可能的群集分布明显。我们还发现,化武热点的出现并非偶然,而是有一定的人为原因。大多数集群被认定为与相邻州共享边界的地区。这进一步意味着,如果与毗邻邦(如中央邦、哈里亚纳邦、旁遮普邦、北方邦和古吉拉特邦)的政府真诚合作,就能有效、显著地减少因 CAW 而造成的有害影响。因此,我们的研究可能有助于政府、执法机构、警察组织、司法部门和其他利益相关者最有效地优化其稀缺资源,以遏制此类事件的发生。
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Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy
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