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The dynamics of listed property companies in Indonesia 印尼房地产上市公司动态
IF 1.3 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-12-20 DOI: 10.1108/jpif-06-2019-0073
T. Nguyen, M. N. Razali
PurposeAs an asset class, listed property companies (PCs) in the emerging Asian markets have taken on increased significance in recent years. Investors have seen Indonesian real estate investment trusts (REITs) being regulated to become a property investment vehicle in 2007. This sees macro-environment investment in the Indonesian property market taking off to a higher level regionally. In the background, Indonesian listed PCs maintain as one of the major investment vehicles for local and international investors. It has also been the subject of investment for REITs and property investment funds in Indonesia. The purpose of this paper is to assess the dynamics of risk-adjusted performances and portfolio diversification benefits of listed PCs in a mixed-asset portfolio context in Indonesia, from July 2006 to December 2018. The sub-periods of pre-global financial crisis (GFC), GFC and post-GFC of listed PCs is also assessed.Design/methodology/approachUsing monthly total returns, the risk-adjusted performance and portfolio diversification benefits of listed PCs from July 2006 to December 2018 are assessed, with extended efficient frontiers and asset allocation diagrams used to assess the role of listed PCs in a mixed-asset portfolio. Sub-period analyses are conducted to assess the post-GFC recovery of listed PCs.FindingsListed PCs delivered higher returns but carried higher risks compared to stocks before the GFC, with bonds having both the lowest returns and risks. The impact of the GFC was highest for Indonesian PCs compared to stocks, where properties did not deliver strong risk-adjusted returns. Notwithstanding the poor risk-adjusted performance, Indonesian PCs had low correlations with stocks and bonds, suggesting some level of diversification potential for stock and bond investors. Stocks outperformed listed PCs across the sub-periods and the full period. Over the post-GFC period, both stocks and listed PCs recovered from the crisis, with stocks turning around stronger. This analysis shows a prolonged recovering and slow bouncing adjustment of listed PCs from the economic changes. This research suggests selected listed PCs may be the outperformers, and, a future contract as a hedge form for listed PC to be implemented.Research limitations/implicationsThe use of the indices of Standard & Poor’s Indonesian property total return (for listed PCs) are as follows: MSCI Indonesia total return (for stocks), Indonesia’s ten-year bond’s total return (for bonds) and Indonesia’s three-month bill total return (for cash). This is used to study the Indonesian listed PCs and may have aggregation effects in its underperformance and therefore drawing a negative outcome. The results may reflect the common fact that the majority of listed PCs in Indonesia are property developers, which also sees underperformances in other emerging country markets.Practical implicationsListed PCs have been under increasingly adjusted and positively adapted regulations from the Indo
目的作为一种资产类别,亚洲新兴市场的上市房地产公司近年来越来越重要。投资者看到印尼房地产投资信托基金(REITs)在2007年受到监管,成为房地产投资工具。这使得印尼房地产市场的宏观环境投资在区域内上升到一个更高的水平。在这种背景下,印尼上市的PC一直是当地和国际投资者的主要投资工具之一。它也是印度尼西亚房地产投资信托基金和房地产投资基金的投资对象。本文的目的是评估2006年7月至2018年12月在印度尼西亚混合资产投资组合背景下上市PC的风险调整绩效和投资组合多元化收益的动态。还评估了全球金融危机前、全球金融危机后上市PC的子时期。设计/方法/方法使用月度总回报率,评估了2006年7月至2018年12月上市PC的风险调整绩效和投资组合多元化收益,并使用扩展的有效边界和资产配置图来评估上市PC在混合资产投资组合中的作用。进行子期分析是为了评估上市PC在全球金融危机后的复苏情况。发现与全球金融危机前的股票相比,上市PC的回报率更高,但风险更高,债券的回报率和风险都最低。与股票相比,GFC对印尼个人电脑的影响最大,在股票中,房地产并没有带来强劲的风险调整回报。尽管风险调整后的表现不佳,但印尼个人电脑与股票和债券的相关性较低,这表明股票和债券投资者具有一定程度的多元化潜力。股票在各子期和整个期间的表现均优于上市PC。在全球金融危机后的这段时间里,股票和上市PC都从危机中恢复过来,股票开始走强。这一分析表明,上市PC在经济变化的影响下出现了长期的复苏和缓慢的反弹调整。这项研究表明,选定的上市PC可能是跑赢大盘的,未来的合同将作为上市PC的对冲形式。研究局限性/含义标准普尔印尼房地产总回报率指数(针对上市PC)的使用如下:摩根士丹利资本国际印尼总回报率(针对股票)、印尼十年期债券总收益率(针对债券)和印尼三个月期票据总回报率。这用于研究印尼上市的PC,可能对其表现不佳产生聚集效应,因此得出负面结果。这一结果可能反映了一个共同的事实,即印尼上市的PC大多是房地产开发商,而其他新兴国家市场的表现也不佳。实际含义在全球金融危机后时期,印度尼西亚政府对列入名单的个人电脑进行了越来越多的调整和积极调整。因此,为了吸引国际投资者对印尼房地产投资的兴趣,上市PC需要更强有力、更有效地调整法规,以适应该地区和全球各自法规的竞争水平。尽管在过渡阶段表现不佳,但印尼上市的PC为当地投资者带来了一些多元化的好处,他们能够在正确的时间选择表现优异的投资PC。在持续的担忧中,国际投资者对在印尼股市持有上市PC没有任何限制。由于区域/全球竞争和国际管理的参与,这为上市PC的业务表现提供了改进的空间。本研究为投资者、研究人员以及政策制定者提供了对印尼房地产市场的认识。原创性/价值本文首次发表了重要房地产工具(商业地产、上市PC和REITs)的国家概况。它还对上市PC的风险调整后业绩及其在全球金融危机前、全球金融危机后和全球金融危机期间从当地投资者角度的动态作用进行了实证研究分析。鉴于上市PC在亚洲的重要性,本研究强调了更多关于印尼机遇和正在进行的房地产投资问题的信息。
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引用次数: 5
Property investment: gearing and portfolio returns 房地产投资:杠杆和投资组合回报
IF 1.3 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-12-15 DOI: 10.1108/jpif-11-2020-0133
N. French, Michael Patrick
PurposeThe aim of this study is to comment upon the relatively straightforward but often misunderstood role of gearing (or leverage) on the potential equity return of a property investment portfolio.Design/methodology/approachThis education briefing is an explanation of the how the addition of individual assets to a portfolio can, with gearing, impact upon the portfolio return.FindingsAlthough, this case study is relatively straightforward, it shows how portfolios can be geared to give enhanced returns at differing, aggregate and levels of risk.Practical implicationsThe process of borrowing at a bank rate below the return rate on an investment project can increase the equity return of the project as long as all incomes and discount rate remain at appropriate levels.Originality/valueThis is a review of existing models.
本研究的目的是评论相对简单但经常被误解的杠杆(或杠杆)对房地产投资组合的潜在股权回报的作用。设计/方法/方法本教育简报解释了在投资组合中增加单个资产如何通过杠杆作用影响投资组合的回报。尽管这个案例研究相对简单,但它展示了如何调整投资组合,以在不同的总风险和风险水平下获得更高的回报。实际意义只要所有收入和贴现率保持在适当的水平,以低于投资项目回报率的银行利率借款的过程可以增加项目的股本回报率。原创性/价值这是对现有模型的回顾。
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引用次数: 1
International capital movement towards the Spanish real estate sector 西班牙房地产行业的国际资本流动
IF 1.3 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-12-13 DOI: 10.1108/jpif-05-2019-0067
Sun Zhenyu, P. Taltavull
The purpose of this paper is to examine the determinants that affect international capital flows (ICF) toward the Spanish real estate market over the period 1995 first quarter to 2017 fourth quarter.,VECM methodology is used to analyze time series and panel methods using pooled EGLS regression.,VECM parameter results for construction and real estate activities sectors, quickly suggesting a stable performance of capital flows toward Spanish real estate sector that the short-term fluctuation of foreign investment results contributes to the long-term equilibrium relatively soon. By applying the Monetary theory of Johnson, the model identifies a relevant role of M3 explaining capital flows to real estate, together with the lagged variables of construction and real estate activities capital flows, Spanish real interest rate and Spain’s economic growth rate; they are the significant determinants on capital movement to Spanish real estate sector. Interestingly, Spanish housing prices as an exogenous variable, directly, significantly and negatively affect real estate capital flows in all cases as a way to capture the assets price bubble.,Findings highlight reasons affecting capital flows to real estate and construction activities to Spanish sectors which allow capital Funds to take into account those drivers in their investment decisions.,This paper is the first attempt to analyze the determinants of ICF to Spanish real estate market; it has a significant meaning for both Spanish economy and international investors.
本文的目的是研究1995年第一季度至2017年第四季度期间影响国际资本流向西班牙房地产市场的决定因素。,VECM方法用于使用集合EGLS回归分析时间序列和面板方法。,VECM参数结果适用于建筑和房地产活动部门,很快表明流向西班牙房地产部门的资本表现稳定,外国投资结果的短期波动相对较快地促进了长期均衡。通过应用Johnson的货币理论,该模型确定了M3对房地产资本流动的相关解释作用,以及建筑和房地产活动资本流动、西班牙实际利率和西班牙经济增长率的滞后变量;它们是西班牙房地产行业资本流动的重要决定因素。有趣的是,西班牙房价作为一个外生变量,在所有情况下都会直接、显著和负面地影响房地产资本流动,以此来捕捉资产价格泡沫。,调查结果强调了影响资本流向西班牙房地产和建筑活动的原因,这使得资本基金在投资决策中能够考虑到这些驱动因素。,本文首次尝试分析ICF对西班牙房地产市场的影响因素;它对西班牙经济和国际投资者都具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 4
Pricing risk and its use in modelling real estate market yields 定价风险及其在房地产市场收益率建模中的应用
IF 1.3 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-12-12 DOI: 10.1108/jpif-08-2019-0111
T. McGough, J. Berry
In the light of past financial and economic turmoil, there has been a marked increase in the volatility in real estate markets. This has impacted on the pricing of property assets, partly through market sentiment and particularly concerning risk. It also limits modelling accuracy model accuracy. The purpose of this paper is to create a new variable and model to enhance analysis of what drives real estate yields incorporating market sentiment to risk.,This paper specifically considers the modelling of property pricing within a volatile economic environment. The theoretical context begins by analysing the relationship between property yields and government bonds. The analytical context then moves on to specifically include a measurement of risk which stresses its role and importance in investment markets since the Global Financial Crisis. The model thus incorporates macroeconomic and real estate data, together with an international risk multiplier, which is calculated within the paper.,The paper finds the use of measurements of market sentiment and risk are more powerful tools for modelling yields than previous techniques alone.,This is an initial paper outlining the creation of sentiment and risk measurements in the financial market and showing an example of its application to a commercial real estate market. The implication is that this could add a major new explanatory variable to modelling of yields.,The paper highlights the importance of risk in the pricing of commercial real estate, over and above normal variables. It highlights how this can help explain over and undershooting of yields within commercial real estate which would be of great importance in the investment world.,This paper attempts to explicitly measure market sentiment, pricing of risk and how this impacts real estate pricing.
鉴于过去的金融和经济动荡,房地产市场的波动性明显增加。这在一定程度上影响了房地产资产的定价,尤其是通过市场情绪和对风险的担忧。这也限制了建模精度。本文的目的是创建一个新的变量和模型,以加强分析是什么驱动房地产收益率纳入市场情绪风险。本文特别考虑了不稳定经济环境下的房地产定价模型。本文的理论背景首先是分析房地产收益率与政府债券之间的关系。分析的背景,然后移动到具体包括风险的衡量,强调其在投资市场的作用和重要性,因为全球金融危机。因此,该模型结合了宏观经济和房地产数据,以及在本文中计算的国际风险乘数。本文发现,使用市场情绪和风险的测量是建模收益率比以前单独的技术更强大的工具。这是一篇初步的论文,概述了金融市场中情绪和风险度量的产生,并展示了其应用于商业房地产市场的一个例子。其含义是,这可能为产量模型增加一个新的主要解释变量。本文强调了风险在商业地产定价中的重要性,超出了正常变量。它强调了这如何有助于解释商业房地产收益率过高或过低的现象,这在投资界将是非常重要的。本文试图明确衡量市场情绪、风险定价及其对房地产定价的影响。
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引用次数: 4
Option effect of land transfer by city governments: a case study of Hangzhou 城市政府土地出让的期权效应——以杭州市为例
IF 1.3 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-12-11 DOI: 10.1108/jpif-09-2020-0108
Ling Zhang, Minghui Zheng, Zheyan Zhang
PurposeThis paper aims to study the impact of land options on the land transfer behaviour of Chinese city governments.Design/methodology/approachBased on the institutional environment of Hangzhou, China, the option pricing model is used to measure the option value of the trading plots. The effect of the option value on the land transfer price and the timing of transfers are estimated respectively, using the hedonic price model and the survival analysis models.FindingsThe results show that the option value has a significant explanation on land price and timing of land transfers. Under the effect of option value, the positive impact of fiscal pressure on the possibility of land transfer weakens. From the perspective of the annual option premium rate, the option premium is closely related to the real estate cycle. Option premiums are higher during booms but lower during recessions and in new urban areas.Practical implicationsBy revealing the distinction of land option premiums in different places and times, this paper provides a reference for city governments seeking a balance between real estate regulation and obtaining more land revenue.Originality/valueBy introducing policy variables that reflect the degree of tightness of real estate regulation and indicators of local government financial pressure, the paper discusses the impact of options on the transfer behaviour of local governments in different situations.
目的研究土地选择对中国城市政府土地出让行为的影响。设计/方法/途径基于中国杭州的制度环境,运用期权定价模型对交易地块的期权价值进行测度。利用享乐价格模型和生存分析模型,分别估计了期权价值对土地出让价格和出让时机的影响。结果表明,期权价值对土地价格和土地出让时机具有显著的解释作用。在期权价值的作用下,财政压力对土地流转可能性的正向影响减弱。从年度期权溢价率来看,期权溢价与房地产周期密切相关。期权溢价在繁荣时期较高,但在衰退时期和新城市地区较低。本文通过揭示土地期权溢价在不同地域、不同时期的差异,为城市政府在房地产调控与获取更多土地收益之间寻求平衡提供参考。独创性/价值通过引入反映房地产调控松紧程度的政策变量和地方政府财政压力指标,探讨期权对不同情况下地方政府转移行为的影响。
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引用次数: 0
The short-run dynamics of Australian real estate investment trusts and direct real estate at the subsector level 短期动态的澳大利亚房地产投资信托和直接房地产在分部门水平
IF 1.3 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.1108/jpif-08-2020-0088
James Giannarelli, P. Tiwari
PurposeThis paper examines the extent of the short-run relationship between Australian real estate investment trusts (A-REITs) and direct real estate returns on both a commercial property sector and a prime and secondary grade basis, i.e. a subsector basis.Design/methodology/approachTwo-step methodology is used. First, we identify the dynamic interdependencies between A-REITs and each commercial property subsector to determine whether the returns of A-REITs lead each subsector or vice versa. Second, short-run deviations between these asset returns are estimated by measuring their individual response behaviours to changes in key economic and financial market factors that are expected to influence these returns.FindingsResults suggest that each subsector shares a unique relationship to A-REITs, given each prime and secondary grade commercial property return series varies in behaviour. Some property subsector returns can be predicted by movements in A-REIT returns, whereas returns for others move independent to changes in A-REITs. Similarly, some subsectors commove with A-REITs in response to changes in certain market factors, whereas others diverge. As such, these findings have practical significance to fund managers and portfolio selection, as each commercial subsector embodies its own exposure to A-REITs and vulnerabilities to market forces. Subsectors that commove with A-REITs in response to certain market forces may be used as substitutes in a portfolio. Alternatively, subsectors that diverge from A-REITs in response to market forces may offer diversification benefits when combined.Practical implicationsThese findings extend beyond existing research to offer critical decision-making guidance at the acquisition level, as fund managers may more closely consider the impact that prime or secondary grade properties within a given commercial sector may have on a portfolio that consists of public and private Australian real estate. Ultimately, a more informed acquisition may be carried out as consideration of a property's asset grade allows for a deeper insight into the property's risk profile and its anticipated short-run impact on a portfolio.Originality/valueThis paper extends previous studies that focus mostly on aggregate or sector-level returns by measuring REIT and real estate dynamics at the subsector level, allowing for practical significance at not only the portfolio level but crucially at the acquisition level, a pivotal decision-making stage for fund managers. This is also the first paper to study REIT and real estate causality and response patterns to changes in market factors at the Australian sector level.
目的本文考察了澳大利亚房地产投资信托基金(A-REITs)与直接房地产回报之间的短期关系,包括商业房地产部门和一级和二级基础,即分部门基础。设计/方法论/方法论采用两步方法论。首先,我们确定了A-REITs和每个商业地产子部门之间的动态相互依存关系,以确定A-REITs的回报率是领先于每个子部门,还是相反。其次,这些资产回报之间的短期偏差是通过衡量他们对预计影响这些回报的关键经济和金融市场因素变化的个人反应行为来估计的。研究结果表明,鉴于每个一级和二级商业地产回报序列的行为不同,每个子部门与a-REITs都有着独特的关系。一些房地产分部门的回报可以通过A-REIT回报的变化来预测,而另一些房地产的回报则独立于A-REITs的变化。同样,一些子部门为了应对某些市场因素的变化而与A-REITs合作,而另一些则有所不同。因此,这些发现对基金经理和投资组合选择具有实际意义,因为每个商业部门都体现了其对A-REITs的敞口和对市场力量的脆弱性。为应对某些市场力量而与A-REITs合作的子公司可以用作投资组合中的替代品。或者,因市场力量而偏离A-REITs的子部门在合并时可能会提供多样化的好处。实际含义这些发现超越了现有研究,在收购层面提供了关键的决策指导,因为基金经理可能会更仔细地考虑特定商业部门内的一级或二级房产可能对由澳大利亚公共和私人房地产组成的投资组合产生的影响。最终,可以进行更知情的收购,因为考虑到房地产的资产级别,可以更深入地了解房地产的风险状况及其对投资组合的预期短期影响。独创性/价值本文通过在子部门层面衡量房地产投资信托和房地产动态,扩展了以前主要关注总回报或行业层面回报的研究,不仅在投资组合层面,而且在收购层面(基金经理的关键决策阶段)具有重要的现实意义。这也是第一篇在澳大利亚行业层面研究房地产投资信托和房地产因果关系以及对市场因素变化的反应模式的论文。
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引用次数: 0
The rise of PropTech: emerging industrial technologies and their impact on real estate PropTech的兴起:新兴工业技术及其对房地产的影响
IF 1.3 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-11-16 DOI: 10.1108/jpif-08-2020-0090
Christopher W. Starr, Jesse D. Saginor, Elaine Worzala
PurposeIndustry 4.0 recognizes a broad set of technologies that rapidly redefine industry, including real estate. These broad technologies include the Internet of things (IoT), cloud computing, decision automation, machine learning and artificial intelligence. This paper explores applies Industry 4.0 to commercial real estate, resulting in a framework defined here as Real Estate 4.0, a concept that encompasses fintech and proptech.Design/methodology/approachThis research paper examines Industry 4.0 technology to construct a framework for Real Estate 4.0. We also focus on how the COVID-19 pandemic is accelerating proptech, particularly as it relates to getting employees back into their traditional work environments.FindingsAs a research paper, this is not a traditional research project with empirical findings. It is a primer on how the rapidly changing technologies of Industry 4.0 are now disrupting and transforming real estate today into what we are calling Real Estate 4.0.Practical implicationsPractitioner insight and future research are informed by a framework for Real Estate 4.0 drawn from the technologies of Industry 4.0. Additional implications are outlined for practical, systemic change as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic within the scope of Real Estate 4.0 technology.Originality/valueThis is a combined effort by experts in three contributing disciplines: systems science, planning and real estate. Our intent is to provide a primer for those of us in the latter two fields so that we can embrace the rapidly changing built environment landscape as it adjusts and adapts to a post COVID-19 environment that will be critical to maintain real estate investment values and enhance the real estate user's experience.
工业4.0认识到一系列广泛的技术,这些技术迅速重新定义了工业,包括房地产。这些广泛的技术包括物联网(IoT)、云计算、决策自动化、机器学习和人工智能。本文探讨了工业4.0在商业地产中的应用,并将其定义为房地产4.0,这是一个包含金融科技和proptech的概念。设计/方法/方法本研究论文通过考察工业4.0技术来构建房地产4.0的框架。我们还关注2019冠状病毒病大流行如何加速技术进步,特别是在让员工重返传统工作环境方面。作为一篇研究论文,这不是一个具有实证结果的传统研究项目。它是一本入门书,介绍了工业4.0快速变化的技术如何颠覆并将今天的房地产转变为我们所说的房地产4.0。从工业4.0的技术中提取的房地产4.0框架为实践者的洞察力和未来的研究提供了信息。本文概述了2019冠状病毒病大流行在房地产4.0技术范围内对实际的系统性变革的其他影响。原创性/价值这是系统科学、规划和房地产这三个领域专家的共同努力。我们的目的是为我们在后两个领域的人提供一个入门读物,以便我们能够接受快速变化的建筑环境景观,因为它调整和适应后COVID-19环境,这对于保持房地产投资价值和增强房地产用户体验至关重要。
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引用次数: 18
The effectiveness of passive land value capture mechanisms in funding infrastructure 被动土地价值获取机制在资助基础设施方面的有效性
IF 1.3 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-11-12 DOI: 10.1108/jpif-07-2020-0084
Chyi Lin Lee, Martin Locke
PurposeThis study examines the effectiveness of passive value capture mechanisms as an effective form of mechanisms in funding infrastructure from an Australian perspective The lukewarm response of active value capture mechanisms such as betterment levies in Australia is also discussed Design/methodology/approachA case study of the Sydney Metro City and Southwest (SMCSW) project in Sydney is used to illustrate passive value capture mechanisms FindingsUnlike many developed countries, passive value capture mechanisms have been adopted in Australia This approach is an effective form of value capture mechanisms to capture the value uplift to offset the total development cost of the SMCSW project However, this approach is highly sensitive to property transaction activities that could be affected by the general economic conditions and unprecedented events such as the COVID-19 pandemic Further, there is a widespread discussion of the efficiency of land tax in New South Wales (NSW) in capturing all properties subject to the value uplift Consequently, a shift towards a broad-based land tax is recommended in which it would provide a more efficient way of infrastructure funding Practical implicationsPolicymakers should consider a broad-based land tax for residential and commercial properties in order to improve the efficiency of passive value capture mechanisms This also highlights property valuers should play a greater role in the development of broad-based land tax system Originality/valuePrevious studies have extensively demonstrated property value impacts of transit investments;very little research assesses the growth of value capture funding mechanisms, particularly passive value capture mechanisms Specifically, this paper is the first paper to assess the effectiveness of passive value capture mechanisms
目的本研究从澳大利亚的角度考察了被动价值捕获机制作为一种有效的基础设施融资机制的有效性。还讨论了澳大利亚的积极价值捕获机制(如改良税)的冷淡反应为了说明被动的价值捕获机制发现与许多发达国家不同,澳大利亚采用了被动的价值捕捉机制。这种方法是价值捕捉机制的一种有效形式,用于捕捉价值提升,以抵消SMCSW项目的总开发成本。然而,这种方法对可能受总体经济状况和新冠肺炎疫情等前所未有的事件影响的房地产交易活动高度敏感。此外,人们对新南威尔士州(NSW)土地税在捕获所有价值上涨的房地产方面的效率进行了广泛讨论,建议转向基础广泛的土地税,这将为基础设施融资提供一种更有效的方式。实际含义决策者应考虑对住宅和商业地产征收基础广泛的土地税,以提高被动价值捕获机制的效率。这也强调了房地产估价师应在发展中发挥更大的作用基础广泛的土地税制度的独创性/价值先前的研究广泛证明了过境投资对房地产价值的影响;很少有研究评估价值捕获资金机制的增长,特别是被动价值捕获机制。具体而言,本文是第一篇评估被动价值捕获机理有效性的论文
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引用次数: 7
Estimating the value, ownership structure and turnover rate for investible commercial real estate from transaction datasets 从交易数据集估计可投资商业地产的价值、所有权结构和周转率
IF 1.3 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-11-10 DOI: 10.1108/jpif-05-2020-0052
Steven Devaney, D. Scofield
Purpose: Commercial real estate (CRE) is a major investment asset. Yet detailed information on the value of investible CRE in different cities is lacking. We propose an innovative method to measure the value of investible CRE using transaction datasets. Design/methodology/approach: We take transaction prices and index them to produce a time series of values for each asset. The sum of the values at each point represents the value of investible CRE at that date. Our method is applied to transaction data for New York, London and Toronto. Findings: London had the highest proportions of institutional and foreign ownership, and its turnover was more resilient to the downturn in global CRE following the GFC. The results illustrate the potential of our method to shed light on the characteristics of investible CRE markets. Originality: Our modification of the perpetual inventory technique is simple, novel and practical. We propose this approach given the absence of a building-by-building inventory of investible CRE in many markets. Research limitations: We use data from Real Capital Analytics (RCA). This provides good coverage of transactions for investible CRE in the cities that we examine, but data from other sources might lead to different estimates. Practical implications: Measuring the value and turnover of investible CRE is important for portfolio strategies that account for the size and liquidity of investment markets. Knowledge of these features, and of ownership patterns, provides a better understanding of market operation.
用途:商业地产是一项重要的投资资产。然而,缺乏关于不同城市可投资CRE价值的详细信息。我们提出了一种使用交易数据集来衡量可投资CRE价值的创新方法。设计/方法论/方法:我们采用交易价格并对其进行索引,以产生每个资产的时间序列价值。每个点的价值之和代表了该日可投资CRE的价值。我们的方法应用于纽约、伦敦和多伦多的交易数据。调查结果:伦敦的机构和外国所有权比例最高,其营业额对全球金融危机后全球CRE的低迷更有弹性。结果说明了我们的方法在揭示可投资CRE市场特征方面的潜力。独创性:我们对永续盘存技术的改进是简单、新颖和实用的。鉴于在许多市场中缺乏可投资CRE的逐栋库存,我们提出了这种方法。研究限制:我们使用真实资本分析(RCA)的数据。这为我们调查的城市中的可投资CRE提供了很好的交易覆盖范围,但来自其他来源的数据可能会导致不同的估计。实际意义:衡量可投资CRE的价值和营业额对于考虑投资市场规模和流动性的投资组合策略很重要。了解这些特征和所有权模式,可以更好地了解市场运作。
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引用次数: 3
Cost overruns and delays in infrastructure projects: the case of Stuttgart 21 基础设施项目的成本超支和延误:以斯图加特21为例
IF 1.3 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-11-10 DOI: 10.1108/jpif-11-2019-0144
Bertram I. Steininger, M. Groth, Brigitte Weber
Cost overruns and delays in infrastructure projects are not a recent problem. They have systematically occurred globally, in different sectors, and over time. We find that various causes are relevant for the cost overrun and delay of Stuttgart 21 – one of the largest railway projects in Germany in the last 100 years. Among them are project scope changes, geological conditions, high risk-taking propensity, extended implementation, price overshoot, conflict of interests, and lack of citizens’ participation. To estimate the costs at an early stage, we apply the reference class forecasting model and thereby forecast the current estimated costs within a confidence interval. To estimate the time, we apply an OLS regression for the different subsections and underestimate or substantially overestimate the duration actually required.
基础设施项目的成本超支和延误不是最近的问题。随着时间的推移,它们在全球、不同部门有系统地发生。我们发现,各种原因与斯图加特21号的成本超支和延误有关,斯图加特21号是德国过去100年来最大的铁路项目之一。其中包括项目范围变化、地质条件、高风险倾向、延期实施、价格超调、利益冲突和缺乏公民参与。为了在早期阶段估计成本,我们应用参考类预测模型,从而在置信区间内预测当前估计的成本。为了估计时间,我们对不同的小节应用OLS回归,并低估或大大高估了实际需要的持续时间。
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引用次数: 11
期刊
Journal of Property Investment & Finance
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