This paper experimentally explores epistemic conditions behind the subgame perfect equilibrium (SPNE) of centipede games. We propose a novel design of laboratory experiment to elicit subjects’ beliefs regarding their opponents’ strategies and 1st-order beliefs. The measured beliefs, together with the choice data, help us to estimate each subject’s level of rationality, belief of rationality, and 2nd-order belief of rationality. We consider two experimental treatments: the classic centipede game in which an efficient non-equilibrium outcome exists, and its constant-sum variation. Data shows that, in the classic centipede treatment, fewer subjects behave rationally; meanwhile, subjects are less likely to believe in their opponents’ rationality and belief of rationality. Furthermore, in the constant-sum centipede treatment, there is a non-trivial portion of subjects who behave rationally, believe in others’ rationality, and hold 2nd-order belief of rationality. Our results indicate that the efficiency property of the classic centipede game may lead to subjects’ non-equilibrium behavior by diffusing their beliefs and higher-order beliefs.
{"title":"Belief and\u0000 higher‐order\u0000 belief in the centipede games: An experimental investigation","authors":"Yun Wang","doi":"10.1111/1468-0106.12404","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0106.12404","url":null,"abstract":"This paper experimentally explores epistemic conditions behind the subgame perfect equilibrium (SPNE) of centipede games. We propose a novel design of laboratory experiment to elicit subjects’ beliefs regarding their opponents’ strategies and 1st-order beliefs. The measured beliefs, together with the choice data, help us to estimate each subject’s level of rationality, belief of rationality, and 2nd-order belief of rationality. We consider two experimental treatments: the classic centipede game in which an efficient non-equilibrium outcome exists, and its constant-sum variation. Data shows that, in the classic centipede treatment, fewer subjects behave rationally; meanwhile, subjects are less likely to believe in their opponents’ rationality and belief of rationality. Furthermore, in the constant-sum centipede treatment, there is a non-trivial portion of subjects who behave rationally, believe in others’ rationality, and hold 2nd-order belief of rationality. Our results indicate that the efficiency property of the classic centipede game may lead to subjects’ non-equilibrium behavior by diffusing their beliefs and higher-order beliefs.","PeriodicalId":46516,"journal":{"name":"Pacific Economic Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2022-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47663231","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Gender wage penalty in parenthood: A comparative study of South Korea and Japan","authors":"Hanna Jung","doi":"10.1111/1468-0106.12397","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0106.12397","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46516,"journal":{"name":"Pacific Economic Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2022-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44929075","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Ancestral relatedness and visits between national leaders: Evidence from China\u0000 †","authors":"Jiaqiang Yan, Yonghong Zhou","doi":"10.1111/1468-0106.12402","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0106.12402","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46516,"journal":{"name":"Pacific Economic Review","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2022-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41393553","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The effect of financial knowledge on asset allocation for Chinese households","authors":"T. Yang, Pi‐Han Tsai, Tsun‐Feng Chiang","doi":"10.1111/1468-0106.12390","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0106.12390","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46516,"journal":{"name":"Pacific Economic Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2022-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42435651","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"How competitive is the Syrian banking sector? Empirical evidence from ‘pre/post’ war Syria","authors":"Mazen Mohamd Diwani","doi":"10.1111/1468-0106.12386","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0106.12386","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46516,"journal":{"name":"Pacific Economic Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2022-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42267858","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The market distortion effects of mortgage tightening and transaction taxes: Evidence from Hong Kong residential resale market","authors":"L. Ho, Mengna Hu, Xiangdong Wei, G. Wong","doi":"10.1111/1468-0106.12389","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0106.12389","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46516,"journal":{"name":"Pacific Economic Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2022-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44141951","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Does fiscal decentralization affect local governments' strategic behaviours? Evidence from South Korea","authors":"Soyoung Q. Park, Sungchan Kim","doi":"10.1111/1468-0106.12388","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0106.12388","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46516,"journal":{"name":"Pacific Economic Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2022-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47981879","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Effects of tax benefits on the price elasticity of charitable contributions in South Korea","authors":"Youngrok Kim","doi":"10.1111/1468-0106.12387","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0106.12387","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46516,"journal":{"name":"Pacific Economic Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2022-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45892099","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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