Pub Date : 2023-10-14DOI: 10.1007/s10663-023-09591-y
Klaus Weyerstrass, Dmitri Blueschke, Reinhard Neck, Miroslav Verbič
Abstract In this paper we analyse the effectiveness of fiscal policies with respect to macroeconomic stabilisation during the COVID-19 pandemic in the small open economy of Slovenia. Using SLOPOL11, an econometric model of the Slovenian economy, we simulate the development of the its economy during the 2020s under alternative assumptions about future pandemic-related shocks. We also determine optimal fiscal policies to combat the effects of the pandemic and to stabilise the economy under two scenarios for the future course of developments under COVID-19. Our simulations show that those public spending measures that entail both demand- and supply-side effects are more effective at stimulating real GDP and increasing employment than pure demand-side measures. Successful stabilisation policies should thus contain a supply-side component in addition to a demand-side component.
{"title":"Dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic in Slovenia: simulations with a macroeconometric model","authors":"Klaus Weyerstrass, Dmitri Blueschke, Reinhard Neck, Miroslav Verbič","doi":"10.1007/s10663-023-09591-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10663-023-09591-y","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In this paper we analyse the effectiveness of fiscal policies with respect to macroeconomic stabilisation during the COVID-19 pandemic in the small open economy of Slovenia. Using SLOPOL11, an econometric model of the Slovenian economy, we simulate the development of the its economy during the 2020s under alternative assumptions about future pandemic-related shocks. We also determine optimal fiscal policies to combat the effects of the pandemic and to stabilise the economy under two scenarios for the future course of developments under COVID-19. Our simulations show that those public spending measures that entail both demand- and supply-side effects are more effective at stimulating real GDP and increasing employment than pure demand-side measures. Successful stabilisation policies should thus contain a supply-side component in addition to a demand-side component.","PeriodicalId":46526,"journal":{"name":"Empirica","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135765920","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-30DOI: 10.1007/s10663-023-09587-8
Bjørnar Karlsen Kivedal
Abstract I utilize the I(2) cointegration model to assess the empirical relevance of the environmental Kuznets curve for $$hbox {CO}_2$$ CO2 emissions in the US between 1960 and 2014. This takes the non-linearity of $$hbox {CO}_2$$ CO2 emissions into account by directly incorporating data that are integrated of order two, I(2). As a result, it enables an extensive dynamic analysis of the relationship between emissions and economic growth, as postulated by the environmental Kuznets curve both in the short, medium, and long run. The results indicate that the primary drivers behind the non-linear shape of US $$hbox {CO}_2$$ CO2 emissions in the long run are an increase in emissions caused by energy use and a decrease caused by more trade and the utilization of less polluting energy sources. GDP only exhibits short run effects. Hence, I do not find evidence in favor of a long-run relationship between economic development and the concave shape of emissions, as suggested by the environmental Kuznets curve.
{"title":"Long run non-linearity in $$hbox {CO}_2$$ emissions: the I(2) cointegration model and the environmental Kuznets curve","authors":"Bjørnar Karlsen Kivedal","doi":"10.1007/s10663-023-09587-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10663-023-09587-8","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract I utilize the I(2) cointegration model to assess the empirical relevance of the environmental Kuznets curve for $$hbox {CO}_2$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML\"> <mml:msub> <mml:mtext>CO</mml:mtext> <mml:mn>2</mml:mn> </mml:msub> </mml:math> emissions in the US between 1960 and 2014. This takes the non-linearity of $$hbox {CO}_2$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML\"> <mml:msub> <mml:mtext>CO</mml:mtext> <mml:mn>2</mml:mn> </mml:msub> </mml:math> emissions into account by directly incorporating data that are integrated of order two, I(2). As a result, it enables an extensive dynamic analysis of the relationship between emissions and economic growth, as postulated by the environmental Kuznets curve both in the short, medium, and long run. The results indicate that the primary drivers behind the non-linear shape of US $$hbox {CO}_2$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML\"> <mml:msub> <mml:mtext>CO</mml:mtext> <mml:mn>2</mml:mn> </mml:msub> </mml:math> emissions in the long run are an increase in emissions caused by energy use and a decrease caused by more trade and the utilization of less polluting energy sources. GDP only exhibits short run effects. Hence, I do not find evidence in favor of a long-run relationship between economic development and the concave shape of emissions, as suggested by the environmental Kuznets curve.","PeriodicalId":46526,"journal":{"name":"Empirica","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136337110","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-28DOI: 10.1007/s10663-023-09589-6
Sèna Kimm Gnangnon
{"title":"Effect of the duration of membership in the GATT/WTO on human development in developed and developing countries","authors":"Sèna Kimm Gnangnon","doi":"10.1007/s10663-023-09589-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10663-023-09589-6","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46526,"journal":{"name":"Empirica","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135386217","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-28DOI: 10.1007/s10663-023-09588-7
Andrea Celico, Martin Rode
Abstract Research has demonstrated the economic effectiveness of welfare state reforms that follow the Danish flexicurity model, broadly specifying the combination of highly flexible labor market policies and generous protection schemes. Notwithstanding, it has also been argued that large and generous welfare states may erode civic attitudes, defined here as people’s willingness to cheat on taxes and claim transfers to which they are not entitled. Combining data from all available waves of the World Values Survey and the European Values Study with a self-constructed flexicurity index, this paper finds that welfare state reforms involving a combination of higher benefits, lower labor market regulations, and active labor market policies are not significantly associated with an erosion of civic attitudes.
{"title":"Can we all be Denmark? The role of civic attitudes in welfare state reforms","authors":"Andrea Celico, Martin Rode","doi":"10.1007/s10663-023-09588-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10663-023-09588-7","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Research has demonstrated the economic effectiveness of welfare state reforms that follow the Danish flexicurity model, broadly specifying the combination of highly flexible labor market policies and generous protection schemes. Notwithstanding, it has also been argued that large and generous welfare states may erode civic attitudes, defined here as people’s willingness to cheat on taxes and claim transfers to which they are not entitled. Combining data from all available waves of the World Values Survey and the European Values Study with a self-constructed flexicurity index, this paper finds that welfare state reforms involving a combination of higher benefits, lower labor market regulations, and active labor market policies are not significantly associated with an erosion of civic attitudes.","PeriodicalId":46526,"journal":{"name":"Empirica","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135344813","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Andrea Bernini, Laurent Bossavie, Daniel Garrote-Sánchez, Mattia Makovec
Conclusive evidence on the relationship between corruption and migration has remained scant in the literature to date. Using 2008–2018 data on bilateral migration flows across EU28 and EFTA countries and four measures of corruption, we show that corruption acts as both push and pull factors on migration patterns. Based on a gravity model, a 1-unit increase in the corruption level in the origin country is associated with an 11% increase in out-migration. The same 1-unit increase in corruption in the destination country is associated with a 10% decline in in-migration.
{"title":"Corruption as a push and pull factor of migration flows: evidence from European countries","authors":"Andrea Bernini, Laurent Bossavie, Daniel Garrote-Sánchez, Mattia Makovec","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-10566","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-10566","url":null,"abstract":"Conclusive evidence on the relationship between corruption and migration has remained scant in the literature to date. Using 2008–2018 data on bilateral migration flows across EU28 and EFTA countries and four measures of corruption, we show that corruption acts as both push and pull factors on migration patterns. Based on a gravity model, a 1-unit increase in the corruption level in the origin country is associated with an 11% increase in out-migration. The same 1-unit increase in corruption in the destination country is associated with a 10% decline in in-migration.","PeriodicalId":46526,"journal":{"name":"Empirica","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2023-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139340248","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-11DOI: 10.1007/s10663-023-09586-9
Manuel Monjas, María Rocamora, Nuria Suárez
{"title":"Determinants of bail-in debt yields in the EU banking sector: a multi-country approach with idiosyncratic factors","authors":"Manuel Monjas, María Rocamora, Nuria Suárez","doi":"10.1007/s10663-023-09586-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10663-023-09586-9","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46526,"journal":{"name":"Empirica","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135981679","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-07DOI: 10.1007/s10663-023-09584-x
Peter Sephton, Tolga Omay
{"title":"A note on CO2 emissions using two new tests","authors":"Peter Sephton, Tolga Omay","doi":"10.1007/s10663-023-09584-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10663-023-09584-x","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46526,"journal":{"name":"Empirica","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2023-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44416626","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-31DOI: 10.1007/s10663-023-09580-1
B. Nguyên
{"title":"A meta-analysis of the multiplier effects of the money supply on prices","authors":"B. Nguyên","doi":"10.1007/s10663-023-09580-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10663-023-09580-1","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46526,"journal":{"name":"Empirica","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2023-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41808973","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-05DOI: 10.1007/s10663-023-09582-z
R. Kraemer, Jonne Lehtimäki
{"title":"Government debt: the impact of fiscal rules at the European and national level","authors":"R. Kraemer, Jonne Lehtimäki","doi":"10.1007/s10663-023-09582-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10663-023-09582-z","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46526,"journal":{"name":"Empirica","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2023-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42676046","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-06-28DOI: 10.1007/s10663-023-09583-y
C. Ciocîrlan, M. Niţoi
{"title":"Sovereign risk connectedness: the impact of ECB’s policy announcements in Central and Eastern Europe","authors":"C. Ciocîrlan, M. Niţoi","doi":"10.1007/s10663-023-09583-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10663-023-09583-y","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46526,"journal":{"name":"Empirica","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2023-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48524869","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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