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Tracing bilateral security cooperation: the asymmetric deterioration of US–Venezuelan defense relations 追踪双边安全合作:美国与委内瑞拉国防关系的非对称恶化
IF 1.4 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-08-20 DOI: 10.1057/s41311-024-00613-5
John Polga-Hecimovich, Fabiana Sofia Perera

The USA and Venezuela enjoyed a robust bilateral defense relationship for much of the twentieth century. By the 2000s, however, security cooperation had deteriorated. What explains these changes, and what were the key inflection points? Taking a descriptive methodological approach, we use official documents, public declarations, and data on arms transfers, joint military exercises, and military training, to show that the erosion of the relationship driven largely by Venezuela—specifically, its government’s anti-Americanism and counter-hegemonic aspirations in the 1999–2006 period—and was further aided by a lack of US engagement. Subsequent attempts at US reengagement have been limited and unfocused, while Venezuela has turned to other states as security cooperation providers. Ultimately, the decay of this bilateral defense relationship holds serious security implications for the Americas and offers lessons for both scholars and policymakers.

在 20 世纪的大部分时间里,美国和委内瑞拉一直保持着稳固的双边防务关系。然而,到了 2000 年代,两国的安全合作却每况愈下。这些变化的原因是什么?我们采用了一种描述性的方法论,利用官方文件、公开声明以及武器转让、联合军事演习和军事训练方面的数据,来说明这种关系的恶化主要是由委内瑞拉--特别是 1999-2006 年间委内瑞拉政府的反美主义和反霸权愿望--所驱动的,而美国缺乏参与则进一步助长了这种恶化。随后,美国重新介入的尝试有限且缺乏重点,而委内瑞拉则转向其他国家寻求安全合作。归根结底,这种双边防务关系的衰落对美洲的安全产生了严重影响,并为学者和决策者提供了借鉴。
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引用次数: 0
Structured description, foreign policy analysis, and policy quality during the Biden decision to withdraw from Afghanistan 拜登决定从阿富汗撤军期间的结构化描述、外交政策分析和政策质量
IF 1.4 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-08-20 DOI: 10.1057/s41311-024-00616-2
Jacob Shively

This article develops a descriptive study of the Biden administration’s 2021 decision process regarding whether to withdraw US military forces from Afghanistan. It addresses a practical question for both scholars and practitioners. How can outside observers assess a major foreign policy decision based upon contemporary public information? Observers regularly seek to determine whether a security strategy was ‘good or bad,’ and many have a vested interest in addressing such questions as or shortly after the policy decision occurred. Unfortunately, most assessments of a foreign policy decision process incorporate known outcomes, which can distort the analysis. Descriptive research provides a solution by allowing researchers to depict a decision case as it occurred. The following article describes the Biden administration’s strategic and political deliberations behind the Afghanistan withdrawal decision. It relies upon information publicly available within a year of that process. In turn, it evaluates this decision by directly comparing several major assessment ideal types: procedural, substantive, and outcome-oriented. It ends with mixed findings but argues that structured description paired with comparison across those ideal types allows scholars to identify categories and observe patterns that are often invisible both to contemporary commentary and to causal theory. Such findings are useful for contemporary judgments as well as for developing further empirical scholarship.

本文对拜登政府 2021 年关于是否从阿富汗撤军的决策过程进行了描述性研究。它为学者和实践者解决了一个实际问题。外部观察者如何根据当代公共信息评估一项重大外交决策?观察家们经常试图确定一项安全战略是 "好是坏",许多人都希望在政策决定做出时或做出后不久就能解决这些问题。遗憾的是,对外交政策决策过程的大多数评估都包含已知结果,这可能会扭曲分析。描述性研究提供了一种解决方案,研究人员可以在决策案例发生时对其进行描述。以下文章描述了拜登政府在阿富汗撤军决策背后的战略和政治考量。文章依据的是一年内公开的信息。进而,文章通过直接比较几种主要的评估理想类型:程序型、实质型和结果导向型,对这一决定进行了评估。文章最后得出了喜忧参半的结论,但认为有条理的描述加上对这些理想类型的比较,使学者们能够确定类别并观察到当代评论和因果理论通常看不到的模式。这些发现对当代的判断以及进一步发展实证学术研究都是有益的。
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引用次数: 0
Qatar–Türkiye relations during the embargo of Qatar: a case study in derivative power 卡塔尔禁运期间的卡塔尔-土耳其关系:衍生权力案例研究
IF 1.4 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-08-14 DOI: 10.1057/s41311-024-00609-1
Rory Miller

Structurally, Qatar and Türkiye face different International Relations challenges—Turkey is a regional middle power with significant hard power resources, while Qatar is an ambitious small state with relatively scarce military capabilities. Nevertheless, the Arab Uprisings of 2011 and the shift from unipolarity to multipolarity provided the context for a dramatic acceleration in bilateral relations. In the decade and a half since those tumultuous events sent shockwaves across the Arab world, this relationship flourished to the extent that it can be located firmly on the alignment end of the alignment-rapprochement-discord-friction continuum. This paper assesses the extent that the concept of derivative power—whereby a small state derives power by convincing a larger state to take actions that boost its interests—played a role in driving forward this relationship during the embargo of Qatar between 2017 and 2021.

从结构上看,卡塔尔和土耳其面临着不同的国际关系挑战--土耳其是一个拥有大量硬实力资源的地区中等强国,而卡塔尔是一个雄心勃勃的小国,军事能力相对匮乏。然而,2011 年的阿拉伯起义以及单极化向多极化的转变为双边关系的急剧加速提供了背景。在这些动荡事件震惊整个阿拉伯世界后的十五年间,两国关系蓬勃发展,以至于可以将其牢牢定位在 "结盟--缓和--分歧--摩擦 "这一连续统一体的结盟一端。本文评估了衍生权力的概念--即小国通过说服大国采取促进其利益的行动来获得权力--在 2017 年至 2021 年对卡塔尔的禁运期间在多大程度上推动了这一关系的发展。
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引用次数: 0
Contempt, fear, and hubris: the 2008 Russian–Georgian war through the lens of affect 蔑视、恐惧和狂妄:从情感角度看 2008 年俄格战争
IF 1.4 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-08-13 DOI: 10.1057/s41311-024-00607-3
Harald Edinger

Three affective phenomena epitomise the downturn in Russian–Western relations and shed light on a watershed moment—the invasion of Georgia in August 2008: contempt, fear, and hubris. Each promotes distinct appraisal patterns and action tendencies. Following a shift in the construction of Russian identity vis-à-vis Europe, elite attitudes towards the West turned contemptuous. Faced with a security crisis in the Caucasus, the perceived consequences of inaction fostered the decision to attack Georgia with overwhelming force. Exacerbating the situation, both leaders were overconfident with respect to the outcome of a military confrontation. By highlighting the behavioural manifestations of these affective responses, this article reevaluates predominant accounts of the conflict, informed by major IR theories. It demonstrates the usefulness of emotion as a lens on foreign policy, addresses questions left open by prevailing narratives, and holds lessons for the impasse that is the current security dialogue between Russia and the West.

三种情感现象是俄罗斯与西方关系低迷的缩影,并揭示了一个分水岭时刻--2008 年 8 月入侵格鲁吉亚--:蔑视、恐惧和狂妄。每种情绪都会促进不同的评价模式和行动倾向。在俄罗斯对欧洲的身份认同发生转变之后,精英阶层对西方的态度转为蔑视。面对高加索地区的安全危机,无所作为的后果促使俄罗斯决定以压倒性的武力进攻格鲁吉亚。更糟糕的是,两位领导人都对军事对抗的结果过于自信。通过强调这些情感反应的行为表现,本文重新评估了以主要的国际关系理论为基础的对冲突的主要描述。它证明了情感作为外交政策透镜的作用,解决了主流叙述中遗留的问题,并为当前俄罗斯与西方之间安全对话的僵局提供了借鉴。
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引用次数: 0
Small European states and Brexit: comparing the coping strategies of Portugal and Finland 欧洲小国与英国脱欧:比较葡萄牙和芬兰的应对策略
IF 1.4 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-08-07 DOI: 10.1057/s41311-024-00608-2
António Raimundo, Laura C. Ferreira-Pereira, Juha Jokela

Brexit was a major European Union crisis with acute implications for smaller European countries. Both Portugal and Finland have considerably relied on the EU as small, geographically peripheral and ‘core’ member states. The comparison of their strategic responses to Brexit shows significant ‘sheltering’ within the EU but also more pro-active strategies in specific areas. While a hedging of bets was more prominent for Portugal in the foreign policy-area, reacting to the risk of a less ‘Atlantic’ EU, for Finland it was more notorious in the political economy domain where the country lost an important ‘liberal’ ally. These original comparative findings highlight both the EU’s enduring importance for small European states and the national efforts to preserve autonomy and influence under a more volatile continental landscape. The article also advances the ongoing discussion on the strategic adjustment to Brexit by suggesting possible factors helping understanding the pursuance of different coping strategies.

英国脱欧是欧盟的一次重大危机,对欧洲小国产生了严重影响。葡萄牙和芬兰作为地理上的边缘小国和 "核心 "成员国,在很大程度上依赖于欧盟。对两国应对英国脱欧的战略措施进行比较后发现,两国在欧盟内部的 "庇护 "作用显著,但在特定领域也采取了更加积极主动的战略。葡萄牙的对冲策略在外交政策领域更为突出,以应对欧盟 "大西洋化 "程度降低的风险;而芬兰则在政治经济领域更为明显,因为该国失去了一个重要的 "自由主义 "盟友。这些独创性的比较研究结果既凸显了欧盟对欧洲小国的持久重要性,也表明了各国在更加动荡的欧洲大陆格局下为维护自主权和影响力所做的努力。文章还提出了有助于理解不同应对策略的可能因素,从而推动了正在进行的关于英国脱欧战略调整的讨论。
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引用次数: 0
The politics of descriptive inference: contested concepts in conflict data 描述性推论的政治性:冲突数据中存在争议的概念
IF 1.4 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-07-29 DOI: 10.1057/s41311-024-00591-8
M. P. Broache, Agnes Yu

Descriptive research is sometimes understood as simply compiling and presenting objective facts, or ‘telling it like it is.’ We challenge this understanding, arguing that description involves a series of subjective, value-laden decisions that may reflect, reinforce, or alternatively undermine, existing narratives and power structures; accordingly, description is fundamentally, and unavoidably, political. We illustrate this argument with respect to descriptive research on violence against civilians by comparing how three descriptive research outputs—the Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s One-Sided Violence, the Political Instability Task Force’s Genocide and Politicide, and the Targeted Mass Killings datasets—define contested concepts relating to the distinction between combatants and civilians, identification of state actors, and intent. We demonstrate how differences in these definitions manifest in different descriptive inferences about violence in Burundi in 1993, and we discuss how an understanding of description as political relates to researchers’ responsibilities as compilers and users of descriptive data.

描述性研究有时被理解为简单地汇编和呈现客观事实,或 "如实陈述"。我们对这种理解提出质疑,认为描述涉及一系列主观的、带有价值取向的决定,这些决定可能会反映、强化或破坏现有的叙事和权力结构;因此,描述从根本上说是政治性的,而且不可避免。我们通过比较三个描述性研究成果--乌普萨拉冲突数据计划的 "单边暴力"、政治不稳定特别工作组的 "种族灭绝和政治谋杀 "以及 "定点大规模屠杀 "数据集--如何定义与战斗人员和平民的区别、国家行为者的识别以及意图相关的有争议的概念,来说明针对平民的暴力的描述性研究的这一论点。我们展示了这些定义的差异如何体现在对 1993 年布隆迪暴力事件的不同描述性推断中,并讨论了将描述理解为政治性与研究人员作为描述性数据的编制者和使用者的责任之间的关系。
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引用次数: 0
Territorial disputes and international law: reclaiming the sui generis nature of arbitration 领土争端与国际法:恢复仲裁的独特性
IF 1.4 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-07-20 DOI: 10.1057/s41311-024-00585-6
Asaf Siniver

This study aims to bridge the disciplinary gap between IR and international law in the study of conflict resolution by highlighting the sui generis nature of arbitration as a hybrid political-legal method of dispute settlement that has been lost over the years due to its overly judicialized application. It reclaims the unique nature of arbitration by demonstrating its capacity to enable state flexibility and autonomy which can be found in mediation, whilst providing a final and legally binding solution, which is commonly associated with adjudication. Utilizing the case study of the Beagle Channel arbitration between Chile and Argentina (1971–77), this study demonstrates that a key reason behind the general misuse and disuse of arbitration is the failure of states to capture its sui generis nature and instead adopt an overly judicialized approach.

本研究旨在弥合国际关系和国际法在冲突解决研究中的学科鸿沟,强调仲裁作为一种混合的政治-法律争端解决方法所具有的独特性,这种独特性多年来由于过度司法化的应用而丧失殆尽。该书通过展示仲裁的能力,在提供通常与裁决相关的最终和具有法律约束力的解决方案的同时,实现了调解所具有的国家灵活性和自主性,从而重新找回了仲裁的独特性。通过对智利与阿根廷之间的比格尔海峡仲裁案(1971-77 年)的案例研究,本研究表明,仲裁被普遍误用和滥用的一个关键原因是国家未能抓住仲裁的独特性,而是采用了过度司法化的方法。
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引用次数: 0
Adam Smith’s influence on British reform movements of the early-to-mid-19th century 亚当-斯密对 19 世纪早期至中期英国改革运动的影响
IF 1.4 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-07-19 DOI: 10.1057/s41311-024-00589-2
Alexandra Digby

The reception of the Wealth of Nations in the years after its publication reveals a wide range of interpretations of Smith’s ideas. On the one hand, Smith appealed to revolutionaries and subversives; on the other hand, he appealed to ‘conservatives’ who supported the burgeoning laissez-faire movement. By 1800, however, in intellectual circles, the ‘conservative’ Smith had largely won out. Yet, this was not the case for advocates of working-class interests. As this paper will show, reformers of the early-to-mid-19th century emphasized Smith’s sympathetic attitude towards the labouring poor, his labour theory of value and his distinction between productive and unproductive labour. Reformers turned to Smith for intellectual validation of the workers’ right to vote and often to a larger share of the national produce, hailing him as a supporter of the working classes. The backlash against the ‘subversive’ Smith was significant, with protectors of the status quo pointing to the dangers of ‘misrepresenting’ Smith’s ideas.

国富论》出版后的几年里,人们对斯密思想的解读可谓五花八门。一方面,斯密吸引了革命者和颠覆者;另一方面,他吸引了支持新兴自由放任运动的 "保守派"。然而,到了 1800 年,在知识界,"保守派 "斯密基本胜出。然而,工人阶级利益的倡导者却并非如此。正如本文将展示的那样,19 世纪早期至中期的改革者强调斯密对贫困劳工的同情态度、他的劳动价值论以及他对生产性劳动和非生产性劳动的区分。改革者从斯密那里获得了工人投票权的知识验证,并经常获得更多的国家产品份额,称赞他是工人阶级的支持者。对 "颠覆性 "斯密的反弹是巨大的,现状的保护者指出了 "歪曲 "斯密思想的危险。
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引用次数: 0
IPR forum on Chih-yu Shih’s intervention on the relational turn in IR 关于施芝瑜对 IR 关系转向的干预的 IPR 论坛
IF 1.4 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-07-08 DOI: 10.1057/s41311-024-00595-4
Pinar Bilgin

I read Shih’s intervention as an invitation to pay attention to relationality in not only ontological but also epistemological terms. I begin by observing that even those bodies of scholarship that focus on relationality are not always aware of our connectedness in terms of the production of ideas and knowledge about how the world works. It is essential, I argue, that studying the ways in which we are connected does not remain focused purely on material usurpation (historical materialism) or self-other relations (feminism, post-structuralism) but also encompasses the production of ideas and knowledge. Brought into an IR discussion, this is about the production of our ideas and knowledge about how the world works, which is best captured by Edward Said’ distinction between ‘origin’ versus ‘beginning’ of ideas. Whereas looking for the ‘origin’ of ideas assumes a singular source, an exploration of ‘beginnings’ takes as its starting point the eventuality that there exist multiple sources across time and space, and focuses on the study of relations of give-and-take and learning between world’s peoples.

我将施氏的发言解读为邀请我们不仅从本体论的角度,而且从认识论的角度关注关系性。我首先指出,即使是那些关注关系性的学术机构,也并不总是意识到我们在产生关于世界如何运作的思想和知识方面的关联性。我认为,至关重要的是,研究我们相互联系的方式不能仅仅关注物质篡夺(历史唯物主义)或自我与他者的关系(女权主义、后结构主义),还应包括思想和知识的生产。爱德华-萨义德(Edward Said)对思想的 "起源 "和 "开端 "进行了区分,这最能体现爱德华-萨义德对思想的 "起源 "和 "开端 "进行的区分。寻找思想的 "起源 "需要假定一个单一的来源,而探索 "开端 "的出发点则是可能存在跨越时间和空间的多重来源,并侧重于研究世界各国人民之间的取舍和学习关系。
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引用次数: 0
Brazilian failures to consolidate a domestic nuclear industry: the role of science and technology policies 巴西巩固国内核工业的失败:科技政策的作用
IF 1.4 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2024-07-08 DOI: 10.1057/s41311-024-00590-9
João Paulo Nicolini Gabriel, Dawisson Belém Lopes

This article proposes an alternative domestic-level explanation as to why has Brazil not developed a robust nuclear industry like India if both countries departed from similar diplomatic positions. The existing literature focuses mainly on diplomatic or geopolitical topics to address this puzzle. This research endeavor undertakes an inquiry into the intricacies of the matter through the application of Hymans' hypothesis, which delves into the contextual milieu within which scientists operate. This entails an exploration of how policymakers lend their support to scientific and technological mechanisms, thereby steering them toward the realization of their envisioned objectives. Employing a qualitative research paradigm, the findings of this study pivot upon insights gleaned from semi-structured interviews and primary source materials. The present scholarly article conducts an in-depth examination centered on the realm of Brazilian nuclear policy, with India serving as an illustrative shadow case. Notably, India is emblematic of a nation wherein scientists have aptly navigated the requisite conditions to propel the advancement of the nuclear industry. The discourse contends that the diminished influence of scientists in the policymaking continuum, coupled with the dearth of investments in science, technology, and innovation, stand as pivotal considerations for comprehending the setbacks witnessed within Brazil's pursuit of nuclear autonomy.

本文提出了另一种国内层面的解释,即如果巴西和印度的外交立场相似,为什么巴西没有像印度一样发展出强大的核工业。现有文献主要关注外交或地缘政治话题来解决这一难题。本研究通过应用海曼斯假说(Hymans's hypothesis)来探究这一问题的复杂性,该假说深入研究了科学家工作的背景环境。这就需要探索政策制定者如何支持科技机制,从而引导它们实现预期目标。本研究采用定性研究范式,研究结果以从半结构式访谈和原始资料中获得的见解为基础。本学术文章以巴西核政策领域为中心,以印度为影子案例,进行了深入研究。值得注意的是,印度是一个国家的象征,在这个国家,科学家们恰当地驾驭了推动核工业发展的必要条件。论述认为,科学家在决策连续体中的影响力减弱,再加上对科学、技术和创新的投资不足,是理解巴西在追求核自主权过程中遭遇挫折的关键因素。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
International Politics
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