Pub Date : 2023-11-23DOI: 10.1017/s1474747223000227
Hans Fehr, Adrian Fröhlich
This paper develops a general equilibrium life-cycle model with endogenous retirement that focuses on the interplay between old-age pensions (OAP) and disability pensions (DP) in Germany. Germany has introduced a phased-in increase of the normal retirement age from age 65 to 67 (Reform 2007) and closed off other routes to early OAP retirement. This reform was followed by a phased-in expansion of future DP benefits (Reform 2018). Our simulation results indicate that the first reform will induce a shift toward DP retirement, while the Reform 2018 will even neutralize the financial and economic gains of the Reform 2007 if current DP eligibility and benefit rules remain unchanged. We therefore highlight the increased relevance of DP when reforming the retirement system and retirement incentives in an aging society. Securing the financial stability of public pensions requires activation and rehabilitation of sick elderly in the workforce and tight access to disability benefits.
{"title":"Optimal retirement with disability pensions","authors":"Hans Fehr, Adrian Fröhlich","doi":"10.1017/s1474747223000227","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1474747223000227","url":null,"abstract":"This paper develops a general equilibrium life-cycle model with endogenous retirement that focuses on the interplay between old-age pensions (OAP) and disability pensions (DP) in Germany. Germany has introduced a phased-in increase of the normal retirement age from age 65 to 67 (Reform 2007) and closed off other routes to early OAP retirement. This reform was followed by a phased-in expansion of future DP benefits (Reform 2018). Our simulation results indicate that the first reform will induce a shift toward DP retirement, while the Reform 2018 will even neutralize the financial and economic gains of the Reform 2007 if current DP eligibility and benefit rules remain unchanged. We therefore highlight the increased relevance of DP when reforming the retirement system and retirement incentives in an aging society. Securing the financial stability of public pensions requires activation and rehabilitation of sick elderly in the workforce and tight access to disability benefits.","PeriodicalId":46635,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Pension Economics & Finance","volume":"50 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-11-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138515591","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-11-03DOI: 10.1017/s147474722300015x
Miguel Sanchez-Romero, Philip Schuster, Alexia Prskawetz
Abstract As the heterogeneity in life expectancy by socioeconomic status increases, many pension systems imply a wealth transfer from short- to long-lived individuals. Various pension reforms aim to reduce inequalities that are caused by ex-ante differences in life expectancy. However, these pension reforms may induce redistribution effects. We introduce a dynamic general equilibrium-overlapping generations model with heterogeneous individuals that differ in their education, labor supply, lifetime income, and life expectancy. Within this framework we study six different pension reforms that foster the sustainability of the pension system and aim to account for heterogeneous life expectancy. Our results highlight that pension reforms have to be evaluated at various dimensions. Reforms that may increase the sustainability of the pension system are not necessarily conducive to reduce the redistributive wealth transfers from short- to long-lived individuals. Our paper emphasizes the need for studying pension reforms in models with behavioral feedback and heterogeneous socioeconomic groups.
{"title":"Redistributive effects of pension reforms: who are the winners and losers?","authors":"Miguel Sanchez-Romero, Philip Schuster, Alexia Prskawetz","doi":"10.1017/s147474722300015x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s147474722300015x","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract As the heterogeneity in life expectancy by socioeconomic status increases, many pension systems imply a wealth transfer from short- to long-lived individuals. Various pension reforms aim to reduce inequalities that are caused by ex-ante differences in life expectancy. However, these pension reforms may induce redistribution effects. We introduce a dynamic general equilibrium-overlapping generations model with heterogeneous individuals that differ in their education, labor supply, lifetime income, and life expectancy. Within this framework we study six different pension reforms that foster the sustainability of the pension system and aim to account for heterogeneous life expectancy. Our results highlight that pension reforms have to be evaluated at various dimensions. Reforms that may increase the sustainability of the pension system are not necessarily conducive to reduce the redistributive wealth transfers from short- to long-lived individuals. Our paper emphasizes the need for studying pension reforms in models with behavioral feedback and heterogeneous socioeconomic groups.","PeriodicalId":46635,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Pension Economics & Finance","volume":"220 S711","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135774999","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-11-03DOI: 10.1017/s1474747223000173
Robert M. Costrell, Josh B. McGee
Abstract We propose an economic reformulation of contribution policy integrating: (1) formalization of sustainability as the steady-state contribution rate, incorporating both the expected return on risky assets and a low-risk discount rate for liabilities; (2) derivation of contribution adjustment policies required for convergence toward the target funded ratio and contribution rate; and (3) a stylized optimization framework for simultaneous determination of the target portfolio return and funded ratio. This analysis provides new theoretical insights into the basis for pre-funding vs. pay-as-you-go, resting on the convexity of the long-run risk–return relationship, and also potentially practical guidelines for contribution policy.
{"title":"Toward an economic reformulation of public pension funding","authors":"Robert M. Costrell, Josh B. McGee","doi":"10.1017/s1474747223000173","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1474747223000173","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We propose an economic reformulation of contribution policy integrating: (1) formalization of sustainability as the steady-state contribution rate, incorporating both the expected return on risky assets and a low-risk discount rate for liabilities; (2) derivation of contribution adjustment policies required for convergence toward the target funded ratio and contribution rate; and (3) a stylized optimization framework for simultaneous determination of the target portfolio return and funded ratio. This analysis provides new theoretical insights into the basis for pre-funding vs. pay-as-you-go, resting on the convexity of the long-run risk–return relationship, and also potentially practical guidelines for contribution policy.","PeriodicalId":46635,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Pension Economics & Finance","volume":"34 15","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135819751","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-11-03DOI: 10.1017/s1474747223000197
Jonathan A. Parker, Yang Sun
Abstract Target date funds (TDFs) provide retirement investors, many of whom are unsophisticated or inattentive, with age-appropriate exposures to different asset classes like stocks and bonds. To maintain exposures, TDFs trade actively against market returns, buying stock funds when the stock market does poorly, and selling when the market does well (Parker et al ., 2023, Journal of Finance ). This paper shows that trading by TDFs was a significant stabilizing force in US equity markets during the unprecedented economic volatility of the COVID-19 pandemic period. Specifically, TDFs – now comprising a quarter of all 401(k) plan assets – caused significant contrarian investment flows across asset classes, flows that were not undone by enrollment of TDF investors or by discretionary actions by TDF managers. Mutual funds with large ownership by TDFs had more stable funding through the pandemic, and stocks that had greater indirect ownership by TDFs had lower co-movement with the market and lower volatility during the pandemic period.
目标日期基金(tdf)为退休投资者提供了与年龄相适应的不同资产类别，如股票和债券，其中许多人不成熟或不专注。为了维持风险敞口，tdf积极对抗市场回报进行交易，在股市表现不佳时买入股票基金，在市场表现良好时卖出(Parker et al .， 2023, Journal of Finance)。本文表明，在2019冠状病毒病大流行期间，tdf交易是美国股市稳定的重要力量。具体来说，TDF(目前占401(k)计划总资产的四分之一)引起了跨资产类别的重大反向投资流动，这种流动不会因TDF投资者的加入或TDF经理的酌情行动而消失。由tdf持有大量股份的共同基金在大流行期间资金更为稳定，而由tdf间接持有较多股份的股票在大流行期间与市场的共同波动较小，波动性较小。
{"title":"Target date funds as asset market stabilizers: evidence from the pandemic","authors":"Jonathan A. Parker, Yang Sun","doi":"10.1017/s1474747223000197","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1474747223000197","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Target date funds (TDFs) provide retirement investors, many of whom are unsophisticated or inattentive, with age-appropriate exposures to different asset classes like stocks and bonds. To maintain exposures, TDFs trade actively against market returns, buying stock funds when the stock market does poorly, and selling when the market does well (Parker et al ., 2023, Journal of Finance ). This paper shows that trading by TDFs was a significant stabilizing force in US equity markets during the unprecedented economic volatility of the COVID-19 pandemic period. Specifically, TDFs – now comprising a quarter of all 401(k) plan assets – caused significant contrarian investment flows across asset classes, flows that were not undone by enrollment of TDF investors or by discretionary actions by TDF managers. Mutual funds with large ownership by TDFs had more stable funding through the pandemic, and stocks that had greater indirect ownership by TDFs had lower co-movement with the market and lower volatility during the pandemic period.","PeriodicalId":46635,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Pension Economics & Finance","volume":"34 11","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135819755","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-20DOI: 10.1017/s1474747223000161
Rubén Castro
Abstract The replacement rate (RR) is a quintessential property of pension systems. Yet, current measures of the RR are plagued with problems. We argue that the concept of RR should be based on the replacement of lifetime permanent income rather than pre-retirement income, and we show that the self-financeable RR with respect to the permanent income has the advantage of being independent of labor income (wages and density of contributions). We define an RR measure, called CRR, as the country-level RR of the permanent labor income that the working-age population could buy with their mandatory pension deposits if they stay constant over time. Pension deposits refer to national mandatory contributions plus the fraction of non-contributory pensions whose financing could be attributed to the working-age population, all as a percentage of the gross domestic product. The CRR is easy to compute and interpret, is nationally representative, and provides an international ranking because it is independent of pension rules, GDP, intertemporal and intergenerational redistributions, and sustainability. The application of the CRR to most OECD countries using the available data shows a 65% average across them, with several countries achieving a 100% RR, all mostly due to their high mandatory contributions as a percentage of GDP.
{"title":"Country-level, mandatory, self-financeable pension replacement rates in OECD countries","authors":"Rubén Castro","doi":"10.1017/s1474747223000161","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1474747223000161","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The replacement rate (RR) is a quintessential property of pension systems. Yet, current measures of the RR are plagued with problems. We argue that the concept of RR should be based on the replacement of lifetime permanent income rather than pre-retirement income, and we show that the self-financeable RR with respect to the permanent income has the advantage of being independent of labor income (wages and density of contributions). We define an RR measure, called CRR, as the country-level RR of the permanent labor income that the working-age population could buy with their mandatory pension deposits if they stay constant over time. Pension deposits refer to national mandatory contributions plus the fraction of non-contributory pensions whose financing could be attributed to the working-age population, all as a percentage of the gross domestic product. The CRR is easy to compute and interpret, is nationally representative, and provides an international ranking because it is independent of pension rules, GDP, intertemporal and intergenerational redistributions, and sustainability. The application of the CRR to most OECD countries using the available data shows a 65% average across them, with several countries achieving a 100% RR, all mostly due to their high mandatory contributions as a percentage of GDP.","PeriodicalId":46635,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Pension Economics & Finance","volume":"50 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135569985","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-20DOI: 10.1017/s1474747223000203
Rik Dillingh, Maria Zumbuehl
This study examines the interest in different pension payout schemes when full annuitization is the default. We focus on three possible pension payout schemes: a flat-rate annuity, a high/low annuity-based profile, and a partial lump sum at retirement with a lower flat-rate annuity after that. We make use of a vignette study and find substantial interest in each of the three payout schemes. Interest in the lump sum scheme increases when a higher percentage can be taken out as a lump sum or when interest rates or replacement rates are lower. Interest in a high/low annuity-based profile increases when the high annuity is valid for a shorter period.
{"title":"Understanding demand for flexible pension payouts: evidence from the Netherlands","authors":"Rik Dillingh, Maria Zumbuehl","doi":"10.1017/s1474747223000203","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1474747223000203","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the interest in different pension payout schemes when full annuitization is the default. We focus on three possible pension payout schemes: a flat-rate annuity, a high/low annuity-based profile, and a partial lump sum at retirement with a lower flat-rate annuity after that. We make use of a vignette study and find substantial interest in each of the three payout schemes. Interest in the lump sum scheme increases when a higher percentage can be taken out as a lump sum or when interest rates or replacement rates are lower. Interest in a high/low annuity-based profile increases when the high annuity is valid for a shorter period.","PeriodicalId":46635,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Pension Economics & Finance","volume":"6 4","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135565460","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-05DOI: 10.1017/s1474747223000185
Joanna Tyrowicz, Krzysztof Makarski, Artur Rutkowski
Abstract We develop a general equilibrium overlapping generations framework with incompletely rational individuals to study old-age saving incentives. Such incentives are used worldwide to help achieve the high savings rate required to sustain sufficient consumption in old age. We show that they raise the welfare of financially illiterate individuals and those with a high degree of time inconsistency. They also reduce the incidence of poverty in old age. We further quantify the fiscal cost, crowd-out, and ability to target the transfers to individuals who need the most. Given the high prevalence of these schemes, our paper has broad policy implications.
{"title":"Can fiscal incentives to saving alleviate looming old-age poverty?","authors":"Joanna Tyrowicz, Krzysztof Makarski, Artur Rutkowski","doi":"10.1017/s1474747223000185","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1474747223000185","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We develop a general equilibrium overlapping generations framework with incompletely rational individuals to study old-age saving incentives. Such incentives are used worldwide to help achieve the high savings rate required to sustain sufficient consumption in old age. We show that they raise the welfare of financially illiterate individuals and those with a high degree of time inconsistency. They also reduce the incidence of poverty in old age. We further quantify the fiscal cost, crowd-out, and ability to target the transfers to individuals who need the most. Given the high prevalence of these schemes, our paper has broad policy implications.","PeriodicalId":46635,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Pension Economics & Finance","volume":"51 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134976017","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-15DOI: 10.1017/s1474747223000124
Alejandra Inzunza, Jose Ruiz
Abstract Pension systems increasingly require active involvement from their participants for retirement planning. This leads to the need for a proper level of financial literacy to foster decision-making. Based on the Chilean Social Protection Survey and the Regional Development Index data, specific characteristics related to the region of residence, such as the quality of life, access to job opportunities, and available connectivity tools, are seen to have a positive impact on pension knowledge. Hence, these regional level results provide inputs to policymakers for developing appropriate policies regarding pension knowledge.
{"title":"Pension knowledge in Chile and regional development characteristics","authors":"Alejandra Inzunza, Jose Ruiz","doi":"10.1017/s1474747223000124","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1474747223000124","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Pension systems increasingly require active involvement from their participants for retirement planning. This leads to the need for a proper level of financial literacy to foster decision-making. Based on the Chilean Social Protection Survey and the Regional Development Index data, specific characteristics related to the region of residence, such as the quality of life, access to job opportunities, and available connectivity tools, are seen to have a positive impact on pension knowledge. Hence, these regional level results provide inputs to policymakers for developing appropriate policies regarding pension knowledge.","PeriodicalId":46635,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Pension Economics & Finance","volume":"54 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135435587","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-14DOI: 10.1017/s1474747223000136
Andrea Berardi, Claudio Tebaldi
Abstract A comparison of the performances of pension products that ignores long-term trends might significantly overestimate the long-term impact of volatility risks while underestimating the impact of persistent, low-frequency trends. This paper proposes a comparison making use of projection models based on the long-term risk–return tradeoff proposed by Campbell and Viceira (2005) to explicitly take into account slow-moving economic trends. In order to illustrate the approach and its implications, we discuss the capital protection provided by life-cycle target-date fund strategies and minimum guarantee strategies.
{"title":"Saving for retirement in Europe: the long-term risk-return tradeoff","authors":"Andrea Berardi, Claudio Tebaldi","doi":"10.1017/s1474747223000136","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1474747223000136","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract A comparison of the performances of pension products that ignores long-term trends might significantly overestimate the long-term impact of volatility risks while underestimating the impact of persistent, low-frequency trends. This paper proposes a comparison making use of projection models based on the long-term risk–return tradeoff proposed by Campbell and Viceira (2005) to explicitly take into account slow-moving economic trends. In order to illustrate the approach and its implications, we discuss the capital protection provided by life-cycle target-date fund strategies and minimum guarantee strategies.","PeriodicalId":46635,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Pension Economics & Finance","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134912029","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-11DOI: 10.1017/s1474747223000148
John Beshears, Ruofei Guo, David Laibson, Brigitte C. Madrian, James J. Choi
Abstract We study a retirement savings plan with a default contribution rate of 12 percent of income, which is much higher than previously studied defaults. Twenty-five percent of employees had not opted out of this default 12 months after hire; a literature review finds that the corresponding fraction in plans with lower defaults is approximately one-half. Because only contributions above 12 percent were matched by the employer, 12 percent was likely to be a suboptimal contribution rate for employees. Employees who remained at the 12 percent default contribution rate had average income that was approximately one-third lower than would be predicted from the relationship between salaries and contribution rates among employees who were not at 12 percent. Defaults may influence low-income employees more strongly in part because these employees face higher psychological barriers to active decision making.
{"title":"Automatic enrollment with a 12 percent default contribution rate","authors":"John Beshears, Ruofei Guo, David Laibson, Brigitte C. Madrian, James J. Choi","doi":"10.1017/s1474747223000148","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1474747223000148","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We study a retirement savings plan with a default contribution rate of 12 percent of income, which is much higher than previously studied defaults. Twenty-five percent of employees had not opted out of this default 12 months after hire; a literature review finds that the corresponding fraction in plans with lower defaults is approximately one-half. Because only contributions above 12 percent were matched by the employer, 12 percent was likely to be a suboptimal contribution rate for employees. Employees who remained at the 12 percent default contribution rate had average income that was approximately one-third lower than would be predicted from the relationship between salaries and contribution rates among employees who were not at 12 percent. Defaults may influence low-income employees more strongly in part because these employees face higher psychological barriers to active decision making.","PeriodicalId":46635,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Pension Economics & Finance","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135980871","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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