L. Davezies, Xavier d'Haultfoeuille, Martin Mugnier
We consider fixed‐effects binary choice models with a fixed number of periods T and regressors without a large support. If the time‐varying unobserved terms are i.i.d. with known distribution F, Chamberlain (2010) shows that the common slope parameter is point identified if and only if F is logistic. However, he only considers in his proof T = 2. We show that the result does not generalize to T ≥ 3: the common slope parameter can be identified when F belongs to a family including the logit distribution. Identification is based on a conditional moment restriction. Under restrictions on the covariates, these moment conditions lead to point identification of relative effects. If T = 3 and mild conditions hold, GMM estimators based on these conditional moment restrictions reach the semiparametric efficiency bound. Finally, we illustrate our method by revisiting Brender and Drazen (2008).
{"title":"Fixed‐effects binary choice models with three or more periods","authors":"L. Davezies, Xavier d'Haultfoeuille, Martin Mugnier","doi":"10.3982/qe1991","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/qe1991","url":null,"abstract":"We consider fixed‐effects binary choice models with a fixed number of periods \u0000 T and regressors without a large support. If the time‐varying unobserved terms are i.i.d. with known distribution \u0000 F, Chamberlain (2010) shows that the common slope parameter is point identified if and only if \u0000 F is logistic. However, he only considers in his proof \u0000 T = 2. We show that the result does not generalize to \u0000 T ≥ 3: the common slope parameter can be identified when \u0000 F belongs to a family including the logit distribution. Identification is based on a conditional moment restriction. Under restrictions on the covariates, these moment conditions lead to point identification of relative effects. If \u0000 T = 3 and mild conditions hold, GMM estimators based on these conditional moment restrictions reach the semiparametric efficiency bound. Finally, we illustrate our method by revisiting Brender and Drazen (2008).\u0000","PeriodicalId":46811,"journal":{"name":"Quantitative Economics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2020-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46806059","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper considers estimation and inference for heterogeneous counterfactual effects with high‐dimensional data. We propose a novel robust score for debiased estimation of the unconditional quantile regression (Firpo, Fortin, and Lemieux (2009)) as a measure of heterogeneous counterfactual marginal effects. We propose a multiplier bootstrap inference and develop asymptotic theories to guarantee the size control in large sample. Simulation studies support our theories. Applying the proposed method to Job Corps survey data, we find that a policy, which counterfactually extends the duration of exposures to the Job Corps training program, will be effective especially for the targeted subpopulations of lower potential wage earners.
{"title":"Unconditional quantile regression with high‐dimensional data","authors":"Yuya Sasaki, T. Ura, Yichong Zhang","doi":"10.3982/qe1896","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/qe1896","url":null,"abstract":"This paper considers estimation and inference for heterogeneous counterfactual effects with high‐dimensional data. We propose a novel robust score for debiased estimation of the unconditional quantile regression (Firpo, Fortin, and Lemieux (2009)) as a measure of heterogeneous counterfactual marginal effects. We propose a multiplier bootstrap inference and develop asymptotic theories to guarantee the size control in large sample. Simulation studies support our theories. Applying the proposed method to Job Corps survey data, we find that a policy, which counterfactually extends the duration of exposures to the Job Corps training program, will be effective especially for the targeted subpopulations of lower potential wage earners.","PeriodicalId":46811,"journal":{"name":"Quantitative Economics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2020-07-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46503002","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We propose using a permutation test to detect discontinuities in an underlying economic model at a known cutoff point. Relative to the existing literature, we show that this test is well suited for event studies based on time‐series data. The test statistic measures the distance between the empirical distribution functions of observed data in two local subsamples on the two sides of the cutoff. Critical values are computed via a standard permutation algorithm. Under a high‐level condition that the observed data can be coupled by a collection of conditionally independent variables, we establish the asymptotic validity of the permutation test, allowing the sizes of the local subsamples to be either be fixed or grow to infinity. In the latter case, we also establish that the permutation test is consistent. We demonstrate that our high‐level condition can be verified in a broad range of problems in the infill asymptotic time‐series setting, which justifies using the permutation test to detect jumps in economic variables such as volatility, trading activity, and liquidity. These potential applications are illustrated in an empirical case study for selected FOMC announcements during the ongoing COVID‐19 pandemic.
{"title":"Permutation‐based tests for discontinuities in event studies","authors":"Federico A. Bugni, Jia Li, Qiyuan Li","doi":"10.3982/qe1775","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/qe1775","url":null,"abstract":"We propose using a permutation test to detect discontinuities in an underlying economic model at a known cutoff point. Relative to the existing literature, we show that this test is well suited for event studies based on time‐series data. The test statistic measures the distance between the empirical distribution functions of observed data in two local subsamples on the two sides of the cutoff. Critical values are computed via a standard permutation algorithm. Under a high‐level condition that the observed data can be coupled by a collection of conditionally independent variables, we establish the asymptotic validity of the permutation test, allowing the sizes of the local subsamples to be either be fixed or grow to infinity. In the latter case, we also establish that the permutation test is consistent. We demonstrate that our high‐level condition can be verified in a broad range of problems in the infill asymptotic time‐series setting, which justifies using the permutation test to detect jumps in economic variables such as volatility, trading activity, and liquidity. These potential applications are illustrated in an empirical case study for selected FOMC announcements during the ongoing COVID‐19 pandemic.","PeriodicalId":46811,"journal":{"name":"Quantitative Economics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2020-07-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47963216","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pierfederico Asdrubali, Simone Tedeschi, L. Ventura
This paper aims to fill the gaps in the analysis of risk‐sharing channels at the microlevel, both within and across households. Using data from the Bank of Italy's Survey on Household Income and Wealth covering the financial crisis, we are able to quantify in a unified and consistent framework several risk‐sharing mechanisms that so far have been documented separately. We find that Italian households were able to smooth on average about 85% of shocks to household head's earnings in both 2008–2010 and 2010–2012 spells. The most important smoothing mechanisms turn out to be self‐insurance through savings/dissavings (40% and 47% in 2008–2010 and 2010–2012, respectively), and within‐household risk‐sharing (16% and 14%). Interestingly, risk‐sharing through portfolio diversification and private transfers is rather limited, but the overall percentage of shock absorption occurring through private risk‐sharing channels hovers around four‐fifths, as opposed to around one‐fifth of a shock cushioned by taxes and public transfers, excluding pensions. In addition, by exploiting subjective expectations on the following year's household income, we find significant evidence of a lower degree of smoothing of persistent shocks. Household risk‐sharing precautionary savings consumption smoothing income smoothing C31 D12 E21
{"title":"Household risk‐sharing channels","authors":"Pierfederico Asdrubali, Simone Tedeschi, L. Ventura","doi":"10.3982/qe1000","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/qe1000","url":null,"abstract":"This paper aims to fill the gaps in the analysis of risk‐sharing channels at the microlevel, both within and across households. Using data from the Bank of Italy's Survey on Household Income and Wealth covering the financial crisis, we are able to quantify in a unified and consistent framework several risk‐sharing mechanisms that so far have been documented separately. We find that Italian households were able to smooth on average about 85% of shocks to household head's earnings in both 2008–2010 and 2010–2012 spells. The most important smoothing mechanisms turn out to be self‐insurance through savings/dissavings (40% and 47% in 2008–2010 and 2010–2012, respectively), and within‐household risk‐sharing (16% and 14%). Interestingly, risk‐sharing through portfolio diversification and private transfers is rather limited, but the overall percentage of shock absorption occurring through private risk‐sharing channels hovers around four‐fifths, as opposed to around one‐fifth of a shock cushioned by taxes and public transfers, excluding pensions. In addition, by exploiting subjective expectations on the following year's household income, we find significant evidence of a lower degree of smoothing of persistent shocks. \u0000 \u0000Household risk‐sharing precautionary savings consumption smoothing income smoothing C31 D12 E21","PeriodicalId":46811,"journal":{"name":"Quantitative Economics","volume":"11 1","pages":"1109-1142"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2020-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42315108","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We use data from a large US life expectancy provider to test for asymmetric information in the secondary life insurance—or life settlements —market. We compare realized lifetimes for a subsample of settled policies relative to all (settled and nonsettled) policies, and find a positive settlement‐survival correlation indicating the existence of informational asymmetry between policyholders and investors. Estimates of the “excess hazard” associated with settling show the effect is temporary and wears off over approximately 8 years. This indicates individuals in our sample possess private information with regards to their near‐term survival prospects and make use of it, which has economic consequences for this market and beyond. Asymmetric information life settlements life expectancy secondary insurance market D12 G22 J10
{"title":"Asymmetric information in secondary insurance markets: Evidence from the life settlements market","authors":"Daniel Bauer, Jochen Russ, Nan Zhu","doi":"10.3982/qe1333","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/qe1333","url":null,"abstract":"We use data from a large US life expectancy provider to test for asymmetric information in the secondary life insurance—or life settlements —market. We compare realized lifetimes for a subsample of settled policies relative to all (settled and nonsettled) policies, and find a positive settlement‐survival correlation indicating the existence of informational asymmetry between policyholders and investors. Estimates of the “excess hazard” associated with settling show the effect is temporary and wears off over approximately 8 years. This indicates individuals in our sample possess private information with regards to their near‐term survival prospects and make use of it, which has economic consequences for this market and beyond. \u0000 \u0000Asymmetric information life settlements life expectancy secondary insurance market D12 G22 J10","PeriodicalId":46811,"journal":{"name":"Quantitative Economics","volume":"11 1","pages":"1143-1175"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2020-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48966618","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper analyzes risk aversion in discriminatory share auctions. I generalize the k‐step share auction model of Kastl (2011, 2012) and establish that marginal profits are set‐identified for any given coefficient of constant absolute risk aversion. I also derive necessary conditions for best‐response behavior, which allows determining risk preferences from bidding data. Further, I show how the bidders' optimality conditions allow computing bounds on the marginal profits that are tighter than those currently available. I use my results to estimate import rents from Swiss tariff‐rate quotas on high‐quality beef. Rents are overestimated when ignoring risk aversion, and rent extraction is underestimated. Small bidders (small, privately owned butcheries) are more risk averse than large bidders (general retailers). Best response violations are few and uniform across bidder sizes.
{"title":"Risk aversion in share auctions: Estimating import rents from TRQs in Switzerland","authors":"Samuel Häfner","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.3397027","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.3397027","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyzes risk aversion in discriminatory share auctions. I generalize the \u0000 k‐step share auction model of Kastl (2011, 2012) and establish that marginal profits are set‐identified for any given coefficient of constant absolute risk aversion. I also derive necessary conditions for best‐response behavior, which allows determining risk preferences from bidding data. Further, I show how the bidders' optimality conditions allow computing bounds on the marginal profits that are tighter than those currently available. I use my results to estimate import rents from Swiss tariff‐rate quotas on high‐quality beef. Rents are overestimated when ignoring risk aversion, and rent extraction is underestimated. Small bidders (small, privately owned butcheries) are more risk averse than large bidders (general retailers). Best response violations are few and uniform across bidder sizes.\u0000","PeriodicalId":46811,"journal":{"name":"Quantitative Economics","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2020-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79042931","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
How has the microcredit movement managed to push financial frontiers? Theory shows that if borrowers vary in unobservable risk, then group‐based, joint liability contracts price for risk more accurately than individual contracts, provided that borrowers match with others of similar project riskiness (Ghatak (1999, 2000)). This more accurate risk‐pricing can attract safer borrowers and rouse an otherwise dormant credit market. We extend the theory to include correlated risk, and show that borrowers will match with partners exposed to similar shocks to lower their chances of facing liability for their partners. We use unique data on Thai microcredit borrowing groups to test for homogeneous matching by project riskiness and type of risk exposure. Evidence supports the theory, in that groups are more homogeneous in riskiness but less diversified in type of risk exposure than they would be under random matching. The results suggest that group lending is improving risk‐pricing by embedding a discount for safe borrowers, and can thus explain part of the unprecedented rise in financial intermediation among the world's poor; but that a potential pitfall of voluntary group formation is antidiversification, which points to strategies for lender intervention.
{"title":"Group lending, matching patterns, and the mystery of microcredit: Evidence from Thailand","authors":"Christian Ahlin","doi":"10.3982/qe1115","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/qe1115","url":null,"abstract":"How has the microcredit movement managed to push financial frontiers? Theory shows that if borrowers vary in unobservable risk, then group‐based, joint liability contracts price for risk more accurately than individual contracts, provided that borrowers match with others of similar project riskiness (Ghatak (1999, 2000)). This more accurate risk‐pricing can attract safer borrowers and rouse an otherwise dormant credit market. We extend the theory to include correlated risk, and show that borrowers will match with partners exposed to similar shocks to lower their chances of facing liability for their partners. We use unique data on Thai microcredit borrowing groups to test for homogeneous matching by project riskiness and type of risk exposure. Evidence supports the theory, in that groups are more homogeneous in riskiness but less diversified in type of risk exposure than they would be under random matching. The results suggest that group lending is improving risk‐pricing by embedding a discount for safe borrowers, and can thus explain part of the unprecedented rise in financial intermediation among the world's poor; but that a potential pitfall of voluntary group formation is antidiversification, which points to strategies for lender intervention.","PeriodicalId":46811,"journal":{"name":"Quantitative Economics","volume":"11 1","pages":"713-759"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2020-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47664358","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper investigates whether assuming that households possess advance information on their income shocks helps to overcome the difficulty of standard models to understand consumption insurance in the US. As our main result, we find that the quantitative relevance of advance information crucially depends on the structure of insurance markets. For a realistic amount of advance information, a complete markets model with endogenous solvency constraints due to limited commitment explains several key consumption insurance measures better than existing models without advance information. In contrast, when advance information is integrated into a standard incomplete markets model, it affects household consumption‐saving decisions too little to bridge the gap between the model and the data and can induce counterfactual correlations between current consumption growth and future income growth.
{"title":"Consumption insurance with advance information","authors":"C. Stoltenberg, Swapnil Singh","doi":"10.3982/qe1169","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/qe1169","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates whether assuming that households possess advance information on their income shocks helps to overcome the difficulty of standard models to understand consumption insurance in the US. As our main result, we find that the quantitative relevance of advance information crucially depends on the structure of insurance markets. For a realistic amount of advance information, a complete markets model with endogenous solvency constraints due to limited commitment explains several key consumption insurance measures better than existing models without advance information. In contrast, when advance information is integrated into a standard incomplete markets model, it affects household consumption‐saving decisions too little to bridge the gap between the model and the data and can induce counterfactual correlations between current consumption growth and future income growth.","PeriodicalId":46811,"journal":{"name":"Quantitative Economics","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2020-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.3982/qe1169","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41454059","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper proposes a new approach to estimate task prices per efficiency unit of skill in the Roy model. I show how the sorting of workers into tasks and their associated wage growth can be used to identify changes in task prices under relatively weak assumptions. The estimation exploits the fact that the returns to observable talents will change differentially over time depending on the changes in prices of those tasks that they predict workers to sort into. In the generalized Roy model, also the average non‐pecuniary amenities in each task are identified. I apply this approach to the literature on routine‐biased technical change, a key prediction of which is that task prices should polarize. Empirical results for male workers in U.S. data indicate that abstract and manual tasks' relative prices indeed increased during the 1990s and 2000s. Task prices Roy model routine‐biased technical change polarization wage distribution J23 J24 J31
{"title":"The price of polarization: Estimating task prices under routine‐biased technical change","authors":"Michael J. Böhm","doi":"10.3982/qe1031","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/qe1031","url":null,"abstract":"This paper proposes a new approach to estimate task prices per efficiency unit of skill in the Roy model. I show how the sorting of workers into tasks and their associated wage growth can be used to identify changes in task prices under relatively weak assumptions. The estimation exploits the fact that the returns to observable talents will change differentially over time depending on the changes in prices of those tasks that they predict workers to sort into. In the generalized Roy model, also the average non‐pecuniary amenities in each task are identified. I apply this approach to the literature on routine‐biased technical change, a key prediction of which is that task prices should polarize. Empirical results for male workers in U.S. data indicate that abstract and manual tasks' relative prices indeed increased during the 1990s and 2000s. \u0000 \u0000Task prices Roy model routine‐biased technical change polarization wage distribution J23 J24 J31","PeriodicalId":46811,"journal":{"name":"Quantitative Economics","volume":"11 1","pages":"761-799"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2020-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41421327","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper studies the inference problem of an infinite‐dimensional parameter with a shape restriction. This parameter is identified by arbitrarily many unconditional moment equalities. The shape restriction leads to a convex restriction set. I propose a test of the shape restriction, which controls size uniformly and applies to both point‐identified and partially identified models. The test can be inverted to construct confidence sets after imposing the shape restriction. Monte Carlo experiments show the finite‐sample properties of this method. In an empirical illustration, I apply the method to ascending auctions held by the US Forest Service and show that imposing shape restrictions can significantly improve inference. Nonparametric/semiparametric models partial identification shape restrictions unconditional moments C12 C14
{"title":"Inference in nonparametric/semiparametric moment equality models with shape restrictions","authors":"Yu Zhu","doi":"10.3982/qe1023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/qe1023","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies the inference problem of an infinite‐dimensional parameter with a shape restriction. This parameter is identified by arbitrarily many unconditional moment equalities. The shape restriction leads to a convex restriction set. I propose a test of the shape restriction, which controls size uniformly and applies to both point‐identified and partially identified models. The test can be inverted to construct confidence sets after imposing the shape restriction. Monte Carlo experiments show the finite‐sample properties of this method. In an empirical illustration, I apply the method to ascending auctions held by the US Forest Service and show that imposing shape restrictions can significantly improve inference. \u0000 \u0000Nonparametric/semiparametric models partial identification shape restrictions unconditional moments C12 C14","PeriodicalId":46811,"journal":{"name":"Quantitative Economics","volume":"11 1","pages":"609-636"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2020-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42118634","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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