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Fixed‐ k inference for volatility 修正了波动率的‐k推断
IF 1.8 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.3982/qe1749
T. Bollerslev, Jia Li, Z. Liao
We present a new theory for the conduct of nonparametric inference about the latent spot volatility of a semimartingale asset price process. In contrast to existing theories based on the asymptotic notion of an increasing number of observations in local estimation blocks, our theory treats the estimation block size k as fixed. While the resulting spot volatility estimator is no longer consistent, the new theory permits the construction of asymptotically valid and easy‐to‐calculate pointwise confidence intervals for the volatility at any given point in time. Extending the theory to a high‐dimensional inference setting with a growing number of estimation blocks further permits the construction of uniform confidence bands for the volatility path. An empirically realistically calibrated simulation study underscores the practical reliability of the new inference procedures. An empirical application based on intraday data for the S&P 500 equity index reveals highly significant abrupt changes, or jumps, in the market volatility at FOMC news announcement times, validating recent uses of various high‐frequency‐based identification schemes in asset pricing finance and monetary economics.
本文提出了半鞅资产价格过程中潜在现货波动率的非参数推断的新理论。与现有的基于局部估计块中越来越多的观测值的渐近概念的理论相反,我们的理论将估计块大小k视为固定的。虽然由此产生的现货波动估计量不再一致,但新理论允许在任何给定时间点的波动率构造渐近有效且易于计算的点态置信区间。将理论扩展到具有越来越多估计块的高维推理设置,进一步允许为波动路径构建统一的置信带。一个经验现实校准的模拟研究强调了新的推理程序的实际可靠性。一项基于标准普尔500指数盘中数据的实证应用显示,在联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)发布新闻时,市场波动性出现了非常显著的突然变化或跳跃,验证了最近在资产定价、金融和货币经济学中各种高频识别方案的使用。
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引用次数: 6
The welfare effects of asset mean‐testing income support 资产平均收入支持的福利效应
IF 1.8 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.3982/QE1241
Felix Wellschmied
This paper studies the savings and employment effects of the asset means‐test in US income support programs using a structural life‐cycle model with productivity, disability, and unemployment risk. An asset means‐test incentivizes low‐income households to hold few financial assets making them vulnerable to predictable and unpredictable income changes. Moreover, it incentivizes relatively productive households that happen to have few financial assets to leave the labor force. However, it allows for relative generous transfers to households in most need. Moreover, it counteracts relatively productive households leaving the labor force after the age of 50. In terms of the welfare of an unborn household, the asset means‐test that optimally trades off these effects is $150,000, and abolishing it is close to optimal.
本文使用一个包含生产率、残疾和失业风险的结构性生命周期模型,研究了美国收入支持计划中资产经济状况调查对储蓄和就业的影响。资产意味着测试激励低收入家庭持有很少的金融资产,使他们容易受到可预测和不可预测的收入变化的影响。此外,它还会激励那些碰巧没有多少金融资产、生产率相对较高的家庭退出劳动力市场。然而,它允许向最需要的家庭提供相对慷慨的转移。此外,它抵消了50岁以后离开劳动力市场的相对有生产力的家庭。就未出生家庭的福利而言,最理想地权衡这些影响的资产意味着测试是15万美元,废除它接近于最优。
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引用次数: 3
A new approach to measuring economic policy shocks, with an application to conventional and unconventional monetary policy 一种衡量经济政策冲击的新方法,并将其应用于常规和非常规货币政策
IF 1.8 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.3982/qe1225
A. Inoue, B. Rossi
We propose a new approach to analyze economic shocks. Our new procedure identifies economic shocks as exogenous shifts in a function; hence, we call them “ functional shocks.” We show how to identify such shocks and how to trace their effects in the economy via VARs using “ VARs with functional shocks” and “ functional local projections.” Using our new procedure, we address the crucial question of studying the effects of monetary policy by identifying monetary policy shocks as shifts in the whole term structure of government bond yields in a narrow window of time around monetary policy announcements. Our approach sheds new light on the effects of monetary policy shocks, both in conventional and unconventional periods, and shows that traditional identification procedures may miss important effects. Our new procedure has the advantage of identifying monetary policy shocks during both conventional and unconventional monetary policy periods in a unified manner and can be applied more generally to other economic shocks.
我们提出了一种分析经济冲击的新方法。我们的新程序将经济冲击确定为一个函数的外生转移;因此,我们称之为“功能性冲击”。我们展示了如何识别这种冲击,以及如何通过var追踪它们对经济的影响,使用“带有功能性冲击的var”和“功能性局部预测”。使用我们的新程序,我们通过将货币政策冲击确定为政府债券收益率在货币政策宣布前后的狭窄时间窗口内的整个期限结构的变化,解决了研究货币政策影响的关键问题。我们的方法为传统和非常规时期货币政策冲击的影响提供了新的视角,并表明传统的识别程序可能会忽略重要的影响。我们的新程序具有以统一方式识别传统和非常规货币政策时期的货币政策冲击的优势,并且可以更普遍地应用于其他经济冲击。
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引用次数: 16
Recalcitrant betas: Intraday variation in the cross‐sectional dispersion of systematic risk 顽固性贝塔系数:系统性风险横截面分散的日内变化
IF 1.8 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.3982/QE1570
T. Andersen, Martin Thyrsgaard, V. Todorov
We study the temporal behavior of the cross-sectional distribution of assets’ market exposure, or betas, using a large panel of high-frequency returns. The asymptotic setup has the sampling frequency of returns increasing to infinity, while the time span of the data remains fixed, and the cross-sectional dimension of the panel is either fixed or increasing. We derive functional limit results for the cross-sectional distribution of betas evolving over time. We demonstrate, for constituents of the S&P 500 market index, that the dispersion in betas is elevated at the market open and gradually declines over the trading day. This intraday pattern varies significantly over time and reacts to information shocks such as clustered earning announcements and releases of macroeconomic news. We find that earnings news increase beta dispersion while FOMC announcements have the opposite effect on market betas.
我们研究了资产市场敞口的横截面分布的时间行为,或贝塔,使用一个大的高频回报面板。在渐近设置中,回归的采样频率增加到无穷大,而数据的时间跨度保持固定,面板的横截面尺寸或固定或增加。我们推导了随时间演变的β的横截面分布的函数极限结果。我们证明,对于标准普尔500市场指数的组成部分,贝塔系数的离散度在市场开盘时升高,并在交易日中逐渐下降。这种盘中模式随着时间的推移而变化很大,并对信息冲击做出反应,如聚集的盈利公告和宏观经济新闻的发布。我们发现盈利新闻增加了贝塔系数的分散度,而FOMC公告对市场贝塔系数有相反的影响。
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引用次数: 12
Climate change and U.S. agriculture: Accounting for multidimensional slope heterogeneity in panel data 气候变化与美国农业:面板数据中的多维坡度异质性
IF 1.8 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-11-17 DOI: 10.3982/qe1319
Michael Keane, Timothy Neal
We study potential impacts of future climate change on U.S. agricultural productivity using county‐level yield and weather data from 1950 to 2015. To account for adaptation of production to different weather conditions, it is crucial to allow for both spatial and temporal variation in the production process mapping weather to crop yields. We present a new panel data estimation technique, called mean observation OLS (MO‐OLS) that allows for spatial and temporal heterogeneity in all regression parameters (intercepts and slopes). Both forms of heterogeneity are important: We find strong evidence that production function parameters adapt to local climate, and also that sensitivity of yield to high temperature declined from 1950–89. We use our estimates to project corn yields to 2100 using 19 climate models and three greenhouse gas emission scenarios. We predict unmitigated climate change will greatly reduce yield. Our mean prediction (over climate models) is that adaptation alone can mitigate 36% of the damage, while emissions reductions consistent with the Paris targets would mitigate 76%.
本文利用1950 - 2015年的县一级产量和天气数据,研究了未来气候变化对美国农业生产力的潜在影响。考虑到生产对不同天气条件的适应,至关重要的是要考虑生产过程中的空间和时间变化,将天气映射到作物产量。我们提出了一种新的面板数据估计技术,称为平均观测OLS (MO‐OLS),它允许所有回归参数(截距和斜率)的时空异质性。这两种形式的异质性都很重要:我们发现强有力的证据表明,生产函数参数适应当地气候,而且产量对高温的敏感性在1950 - 1989年间有所下降。我们利用19种气候模型和3种温室气体排放情景,预测了到2100年的玉米产量。我们预测,如果气候变化得不到缓解,将大大减少产量。我们(对气候模型)的平均预测是,仅适应就能减轻36%的损害,而与《巴黎协定》目标一致的减排将减轻76%。
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引用次数: 14
Discrete‐time dynamic principal–agent models: Contraction mapping theorem and computational treatment 离散时间动态委托-代理模型:收缩映射定理和计算处理
IF 1.8 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.3982/qe960
Philipp Renner, K. Schmedders
We consider discrete‐time dynamic principal–agent problems with continuous choice sets and potentially multiple agents. We prove the existence of a unique solution for the principal's value function only assuming continuity of the functions and compactness of the choice sets. We do this by a contraction mapping theorem and so also obtain a convergence result for the value function iteration. To numerically compute a solution for the problem, we have to solve a collection of static principal–agent problems at each iteration. As a result, in the discrete‐time setting solving the static problem is the difficult step. If the agent's expected utility is a rational function of his action, then we can transform the bi‐level optimization problem into a standard nonlinear program. The final results of our solution method are numerical approximations of the policy and value functions for the dynamic principal–agent model. We illustrate our solution method by solving variations of two prominent social planning models from the economics literature. Optimal unemployment tax principal–agent model repeated moral hazard C63 D80 D82
我们考虑具有连续选择集和潜在多个代理的离散时间动态委托-代理问题。仅假定函数的连续性和选择集的紧性,我们就证明了主值函数唯一解的存在性。我们通过收缩映射定理来实现这一点,因此也获得了值函数迭代的收敛结果。为了用数字计算问题的解决方案,我们必须在每次迭代中解决一组静态的委托-代理问题。因此,在离散时间设置中,解决静态问题是困难的一步。如果主体的期望效用是其行为的有理函数,那么我们可以将双层优化问题转化为标准非线性规划。我们的求解方法的最终结果是动态委托-代理模型的策略和值函数的数值近似。我们通过求解经济学文献中两个突出的社会规划模型的变体来说明我们的求解方法。最优失业税委托代理模型重复道德风险C63 D80 D82
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引用次数: 0
Solving discrete time heterogeneous agent models with aggregate risk and many idiosyncratic states by perturbation 用摄动方法求解具有总风险和许多特殊状态的离散时间异构智能体模型
IF 1.8 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.3982/qe1243
Christian Bayer, R. Luetticke
This paper describes a method for solving heterogeneous agent models with aggregate risk and many idiosyncratic states formulated in discrete time. It extends the method proposed by Reiter (2009) and complements recent work by Ahn, Kaplan, Moll, Winberry, and Wolf (2017) on how to solve such models in continuous time. We suggest first solving for the stationary equilibrium of the model without aggregate risk. We then write the functionals that describe the dynamic equilibrium as sparse expansions around their stationary equilibrium counterparts. Finally, we use the perturbation method of Schmitt‐Grohé and Uribe (2004) to approximate the aggregate dynamics of the model.
本文描述了一种求解在离散时间内具有总风险和许多特殊状态的异构智能体模型的方法。它扩展了Reiter(2009)提出的方法,并补充了Ahn, Kaplan, Moll, Winberry和Wolf(2017)最近关于如何在连续时间中求解此类模型的工作。我们建议首先求解无总风险模型的平稳均衡。然后,我们将描述动态平衡的泛函写成围绕其平稳平衡对应体的稀疏展开。最后,我们使用Schmitt - groh和Uribe(2004)的摄动方法来近似模型的总体动力学。
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引用次数: 13
Testing jointly for structural changes in the error variance and coefficients of a linear regression model 联合检验线性回归模型的误差方差和系数的结构变化
IF 1.8 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-10-07 DOI: 10.3982/QE1332
Pierre Perron, Yohei Yamamoto, Jing Zhou
We provide a comprehensive treatment for the problem of testing jointly for structural changes in both the regression coefficients and the variance of the errors in a single equation system involving stationary regressors. Our framework is quite general in that we allow for general mixing‐type regressors and the assumptions on the errors are quite mild. Their distribution can be nonnormal and conditional heteroskedasticity is permitted. Extensions to the case with serially correlated errors are also treated. We provide the required tools to address the following testing problems, among others: (a) testing for given numbers of changes in regression coefficients and variance of the errors; (b) testing for some unknown number of changes within some prespecified maximum; (c) testing for changes in variance (regression coefficients) allowing for a given number of changes in the regression coefficients (variance); (d) a sequential procedure to estimate the number of changes present. These testing problems are important for practical applications as witnessed by interests in macroeconomics and finance where documenting structural changes in the variability of shocks to simple autoregressions or vector autoregressive models have been a concern.
我们提供了一种综合的处理方法,用于联合检验包含平稳回归器的单个方程系统中回归系数和误差方差的结构变化问题。我们的框架非常一般,因为我们允许使用一般的混合型回归,并且对误差的假设非常温和。它们的分布可以是非正态的,并且条件异方差是允许的。还处理了具有串行相关错误的情况的扩展。我们提供了解决以下测试问题所需的工具:(a)测试给定数量的回归系数变化和误差方差;(b) 在某个预先指定的最大值内测试某个未知数量的变化;(c) 测试方差(回归系数)的变化,允许回归系数(方差)的给定数量的变化;(d) 估计当前变化数量的顺序过程。这些测试问题对实际应用很重要,宏观经济学和金融学的兴趣证明了这一点,在这些领域,记录简单自回归或向量自回归模型的冲击可变性的结构变化一直是一个令人担忧的问题。
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引用次数: 19
A nondegenerate Vuong test and post selection confidence intervals for semi/nonparametric models 半/非参数模型的非退化Vuong检验和后选择置信区间
IF 1.8 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-10-07 DOI: 10.3982/qe1312
Z. Liao, Xiaoxia Shi
This paper proposes a new model selection test for the statistical comparison of semi/non‐parametric models based on a general quasi‐likelihood ratio criterion. An important feature of the new test is its uniformly exact asymptotic size in the overlapping nonnested case, as well as in the easier nested and strictly nonnested cases. The uniform size control is achieved without using pretesting, sample‐splitting, or simulated critical values. We also show that the test has nontrivial power against all ‐local alternatives and against some local alternatives that converge to the null faster than . Finally, we provide a framework for conducting uniformly valid post model selection inference for model parameters. The finite sample performance of the nondegenerate test and that of the post model selection inference procedure are illustrated in a mean‐regression example by Monte Carlo. Asymptotic size model selection/comparison test post model selection inference semi/nonparametric models C14 C31 C32
本文提出了一种新的基于一般拟似然比准则的半/非参数模型统计比较模型选择检验方法。新测试的一个重要特征是,在重叠的非嵌套情况下,以及在更容易嵌套和严格非嵌套的情况下,它的一致精确渐近大小。在不使用预测试、样本分割或模拟临界值的情况下实现了均匀尺寸控制。我们还表明,该测试对所有局部备选方案和一些收敛到零的局部备选方案具有非平凡的能力。最后,我们提供了一个框架,用于对模型参数进行一致有效的模型选择后推理。蒙特卡罗的均值回归示例说明了非退化检验和模型选择后推理程序的有限样本性能。渐近大小模型选择/比较测试模型选择后推断半/非参数模型C14 C31 C32
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引用次数: 8
Eligibility, Experience Rating, and Unemployment Insurance Take-up 资格,经验评级,和失业保险的采取
IF 1.8 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-10-07 DOI: 10.3982/TE1373
S. Auray, David L. Fuller
In this paper we investigate the causes and consequences of "unclaimed" unemployment insurance (UI) benefits. A search model is developed where the costs to collecting UI benefits include both a traditional "fixed" administrative cost and an endogenous cost arising from worker and firm interactions. Experience rated taxes give firms an incentive to challenge a worker's UI claim, and these challenges are costly for the worker. Exploiting data on improper denials of UI benefits across states in the U.S. system, a two-way fixed e ects analysis shows a statistically significant negative relationship between the improper denials and the UI take-up rate, providing empirical support for our model. We calibrate the model to elasticities implied by the two-way fixed e ects regression to quantify the relative size of these UI collection costs. The results imply that on average the costs associated with firm challenges of UI claims account for 42% of the total costs of collecting, with improper denials accounting for 6% of the total cost. The endogenous collection costs imply the unemployment rate responds much slower to changes in UI benefits relative to a model with fixed collection costs. Finally, removing all eligibility requirements and allowing workers to collect UI benefits without cost increases welfare by almost 5% with minimal impact on the unemployment rate.
本文研究了“无人领取”失业保险(UI)福利的原因和后果。建立了一个搜索模型,其中收集UI福利的成本既包括传统的“固定”管理成本,也包括工人和企业互动产生的内生成本。经验税给了公司挑战员工失业保险索赔的动力,而这些挑战对员工来说代价高昂。利用美国系统中各州不正当拒绝UI福利的数据,双向固定效应分析显示,不正当拒绝与UI使用率之间存在统计学上显著的负相关关系,为我们的模型提供了实证支持。我们将模型校准为双向固定效应回归所隐含的弹性,以量化这些UI收集成本的相对大小。结果表明,平均而言,与保险索赔的公司挑战相关的成本占收集总成本的42%,不当拒绝占总成本的6%。内生收集成本意味着相对于固定收集成本的模型,失业率对失业保险福利变化的反应要慢得多。最后,取消所有资格要求,允许工人免费领取失业救济金,将使福利增加近5%,对失业率的影响最小。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Quantitative Economics
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