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The Determinants of FDI Reinvestment Rates 外国直接投资再投资率的决定因素
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-05-09 DOI: 10.1007/s11079-024-09763-8
Balázs Zélity

Profits accruing to foreign-owned firms can either be repatriated to the origin country or reinvested in the host country. Using bilateral country-level FDI earnings flow data, this paper empirically investigates what determines how much is reinvested in a given country. Panel data regressions are estimated on OECD country pairs for the time period 2005-2020 with origin and host country fixed effects. Macroeconomic conditions, institutional factors, agency problems, taxation, and global economic factors are considered as explanatory variables. Lagged independent variables are used as instruments in a 2SLS specification. The main finding is that geographical distance and the world GDP growth rate reduce reinvestment rates, while a shared legal origin increases them.

外资企业的利润既可以汇回原籍国,也可以在东道国进行再投资。本文利用双边国家级外国直接投资收益流数据,以实证研究的方式探讨了在特定国家进行再投资的决定因素。本文对 2005-2020 年期间经合组织国家对的面板数据进行了回归估计,并考虑了来源国和东道国的固定效应。宏观经济条件、制度因素、代理问题、税收和全球经济因素被视为解释变量。在 2SLS 检验中,使用滞后的独立变量作为工具。主要发现是地理距离和世界 GDP 增长率降低了再投资率,而共同的法律渊源则提高了再投资率。
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引用次数: 0
The Role of Fiscal Policy — A Survey of Recent Empirical Findings 财政政策的作用--近期实证研究结果概览
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-04-19 DOI: 10.1007/s11079-024-09759-4
Vo Phuong Mai Le, David Meenagh, Patrick Minford

DSGE models based on New Keynesian principles, which have been extended to allow for banking, the zero lower bound on interest rates (ZLB), and varying price duration, can account well for recent macroeconomic behavior across a variety of economies. These models find that active fiscal policy can contribute to macroeconomic stability and welfare by reducing the frequency of hitting the ZLB. Fiscal policy can also share the stabilisation role with monetary policy, whose effectiveness under the ZLB is much reduced.

基于新凯恩斯主义原理的 DSGE 模型可以很好地解释各种经济体近期的宏观经济行为。这些模型发现,积极的财政政策可以通过降低触及 ZLB 的频率来促进宏观经济的稳定和福利。财政政策还可以与货币政策共同发挥稳定作用,而货币政策在 ZLB 条件下的效果会大打折扣。
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引用次数: 0
Original Sin Dissipation and Currency Exposures in Emerging Markets 新兴市场的原罪消解与货币风险敞口
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-04-19 DOI: 10.1007/s11079-024-09758-5
Bada Han

In this paper, I construct a dataset that measures the composition of 20 emerging market economies’ external liabilities across different instruments and currencies and at varying time spans from 2004 to 2019. The dataset is constructed from actual rather than synthetic data and shows the currency composition of the debts at the sectoral level. The new dataset confirms that emerging market economies have far less foreign currency exposure than historical averages, as their positions in foreign currencies have improved at both the aggregate and sector levels. External financing sources in emerging markets have shifted from foreign currency debt to foreign direct investment, portfolio equity investments, and local currency debt. At the same time, the countries have accumulated foreign currency assets. Also, only the nonfinancial corporate sectors in emerging markets have significant net foreign currency debt at the sector level. Another important empirical finding is the high correlation between the external liabilities in the form of equity and local currency debt and the depth of capital markets—stock and bond markets. This suggests that the original sin dissipation—local currency external liabilities in emerging economies, as opposed to the Original Sin hypothesis—is related to the growth in capital markets in emerging market economies.

在本文中,我构建了一个数据集,测量 20 个新兴市场经济体在 2004 年至 2019 年不同时间跨度内不同工具和货币的对外负债构成。该数据集是根据实际数据而非合成数据构建的,显示了各部门债务的货币构成。新数据集证实,新兴市场经济体的外币敞口远低于历史平均水平,因为它们的外币头寸在总量和部门层面都有所改善。新兴市场的外部融资来源已从外币债务转向外国直接投资、证券投资和本币债务。与此同时,这些国家积累了外币资产。此外,新兴市场中只有非金融企业部门在部门层面上拥有大量净外币债务。另一个重要的经验发现是,股票和本币债务形式的对外负债与资本市场--股票和债券市场--的深度之间存在高度相关性。这表明,与 "原罪假说 "相反,新兴经济体的 "原罪消散"--本币对外负债--与新兴市场经济体资本市场的增长有关。
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引用次数: 0
Regulatory Capital Requirements, Inflation Targeting, and Equilibrium Determinacy 监管资本要求、通胀目标和均衡决定性
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-04-19 DOI: 10.1007/s11079-024-09754-9
Xakousti Chrysanthopoulou, Nikolaos Mylonidis, Moise Sidiropoulos

This paper studies the stability properties of inflation-targeting interest rate rules in an economy with regulatory capital requirements. We derive the conditions for rational expectations equilibrium determinacy in a sticky-price model augmented with the cost channel of monetary policy transmission. We find that when tightening Basel II-type capital regulations, strict inflation targeting leads to significant expansions in regions of determinacy. This result is attributed to the supply side of credit markets, and especially to the procyclical nature of bank leverage and the restricted interest rate pass-through. However, when banks maintain capital ratios beyond the required thresholds, strict inflation targeting suffers from considerable shrinking regions of determinacy. Moreover, excessive bank capital holdings may give rise to self-fulfilling business cycles. The availability of countercyclical capital buffers, as proposed by Basel III, and/or a flexible inflation targeting regime offer an antidote to these problems.

本文研究了在有监管资本要求的经济体中通胀目标利率规则的稳定性。我们推导了一个粘性价格模型中理性预期均衡确定性的条件,该模型增加了货币政策传导的成本渠道。我们发现,当收紧《巴塞尔协议 II》类型的资本监管时,严格的通胀目标制会导致确定性区域显著扩大。这一结果归因于信贷市场的供给方,尤其是银行杠杆的顺周期性和利率传递的受限。然而,当银行维持的资本比率超过规定的阈值时,严格的通胀目标制会导致确定性区域大幅缩小。此外,银行过度持有资本可能会导致商业周期的自我实现。巴塞尔协议三》提出的反周期缓冲资本和/或灵活的通胀目标制为解决这些问题提供了解药。
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引用次数: 0
Extreme Capital Flow Episodes From the Global Financial Crisis to COVID-19: An Exploration With Monthly Data 从全球金融危机到 COVID-19 的极端资本流动事件:月度数据探索
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-04-19 DOI: 10.1007/s11079-023-09745-2
Annamaria De Crescenzio, Etienne Lepers

The COVID-19 pandemic triggered major disruptions in international capital flows, the latest of several extreme episodes since the global financial crisis (GFC). This paper presents a new monthly dataset of gross capital flows for 47 countries, available publicly and updated quarterly, that is better suited to the identification of sudden shocks than quarterly Balance of Payments data. Leveraging on this dataset, we revisit the occurrence and drivers of extreme episodes since the GFC, asking whether COVID-19 significantly changed recent findings of a weaker role of global factors. The answer is no. Rather, the exceptional spikes in global factors during the initial stages of COVID should have predicted many more sudden stops than experienced. Instead, pull factors such as pre-COVID vulnerabilities and pandemic-specific factors appear key in explaining the identified cross-country heterogeneity.

COVID-19 大流行引发了国际资本流动的重大混乱,这是自全球金融危机(GFC)以来发生的几次极端事件中最近的一次。本文介绍了一个新的月度数据集,该数据集包含 47 个国家的资本流动总额,可公开获取并按季度更新,比季度国际收支数据更适合识别突发冲击。利用这一数据集,我们重新审视了自全球金融危机以来极端事件的发生和驱动因素,询问 COVID-19 是否显著改变了近期关于全球因素作用较弱的结论。答案是否定的。相反,在 COVID 的初始阶段,全球因素的特殊峰值本应预测到比所经历的更多的急刹车。相反,拉动因素(如 COVID 前的脆弱性和大流行病的特定因素)似乎是解释已确定的跨国异质性的关键。
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引用次数: 0
Firm Heterogeneity, Home Market Effect, and Gravity Equation in an Oligopoly 寡头垄断中的企业异质性、本土市场效应和引力方程
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-04-19 DOI: 10.1007/s11079-024-09760-x
Kenji Fujiwara

Developing a two-country oligopoly model with firm heterogeneity, this paper examines the relationship among market size, the Home Market Effect, and the gravity equation. We show that in the long-run with free entry, the Home Market Effect holds, namely, more firms locate in the large-sized country. This leads the large-sized country to be a net exporter of the oligopoly good. In the short-run with restricted entry, the Home Market Effect no longer holds and the large-sized country becomes a net importer of the oligopoly good. These results suggest that the theoretical predictions of Feenstra et al. (Can J Econ 34(2):430–447, 2001) survive firm heterogeneity.

本文建立了一个具有企业异质性的两国寡头垄断模型,研究了市场规模、本土市场效应和引力方程之间的关系。我们的研究表明,在自由进入的长期条件下,本土市场效应成立,即更多的企业在规模大的国家落户。这导致大国成为寡头产品的净出口国。在限制进入的短期,本土市场效应不再成立,大国成为寡头产品的净进口国。这些结果表明,Feenstra 等人(Can J Econ 34(2):430-447,2001 年)的理论预测经得起企业异质性的考验。
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引用次数: 0
Optimum Currency Area in the Eurozone 欧元区的最佳货币区
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-03-06 DOI: 10.1007/s11079-024-09750-z
Krzysztof Beck, Iana Okhrimenko

We used a Bayesian dynamic factor model (BDFM) to examine the share of variance explained by the European and country factors for 59 regions in Eurozone countries in the period from 1992 to 2020. The BDFM output facilitated the construction of a criterion that enables the assessment of the cost of participation in the European Monetary Union, which is directly related to the optimum currency area theory. Over the examined period, we observed business cycle divergence, with 46 regions experiencing a drop in the share of variance explained by the European factor from 1992–2005 to 2006–2020. However, the analysis over shorter time spans demonstrated that all the regions decoupled from the European business cycle. The results contradict the predictions of "The European Commission View". On the one hand, two predictions stemming from "The Krugman View" are supported by the results: the European regions experienced a slight increase in sectoral specialization, and they experienced business cycle divergence. On the other hand, the data does not support the notion that the ongoing specialization was the underlying cause of this divergence.

我们使用贝叶斯动态因素模型(BDFM)研究了 1992 年至 2020 年期间欧元区国家 59 个地区的欧洲因素和国家因素所解释的方差份额。贝叶斯动态因子模型的结果有助于构建一个标准,以评估加入欧洲货币联盟的成本,这与最优货币区理论直接相关。在考察期内,我们观察到了商业周期的分化,从 1992-2005 年到 2006-2020 年,46 个地区由欧洲因素解释的方差份额有所下降。然而,对较短时间跨度的分析表明,所有地区都与欧洲商业周期脱钩。结果与 "欧盟委员会观点 "的预测相矛盾。一方面,"克鲁格曼观点 "的两个预测得到了结果的支持:欧洲地区的部门专业化程度略有提高,而且它们经历了商业周期的分化。另一方面,数据并不支持这种观点,即持续的专业化是造成这种分化的根本原因。
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引用次数: 0
Determinants of Net Transactions in TARGET2 of European Banks Based on Micro-data 基于微观数据的欧洲银行 TARGET2 净交易额决定因素
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-02-29 DOI: 10.1007/s11079-024-09748-7
Constantin Drott, Stefan Goldbach, Axel Jochem

This paper examines German and foreign bank factors that can explain net flows of cross-border central bank liquidity between Germany and the rest of the euro area. Using data from the German component of Eurosystem’s real-time gross settlement system TARGET2 and BankFocus for the period between 2009 and 2021, we provide empirical evidence that only few balance sheet items and profit and loss accounts affect net flows with Germany. We control for bilateral bank-specific relationships and time-varying macroeconomic country effects in our regressions. In general, German bank factors seem to be more important than characteristics of foreign banks. A German bank that exhibits relatively high claims against central banks seems to attract less additional central bank liquidity from abroad than a German bank with fewer existing central bank claims. Net claims against central banks, which also control for liabilities, have no effect on net transactions in TARGET2. However, higher overall liquidity of a German credit institution corresponds to additional net inflows. Foreign bank factors only matter for central bank payments and intragroup payments. We also document heterogeneities across different types of transactions which influence the German TARGET2 balance. While customer payments, interbank payments and central bank payments have increased net flows to Germany in sum, intragroup payments and ancillary systems’ transactions have led to net outflows.

本文研究了可以解释德国与欧元区其他国家之间中央银行流动性跨境净流量的德国和外国银行因素。利用欧元系统实时总结算系统 TARGET2 德国部分和 BankFocus 2009 年至 2021 年期间的数据,我们提供了实证证据,证明只有少数资产负债表项目和损益账户会影响与德国之间的净流动。我们在回归中控制了双边银行特定关系和随时间变化的宏观经济国家效应。总体而言,德国银行的因素似乎比外国银行的特征更为重要。与现有央行债权较少的德国银行相比,对央行债权相对较高的德国银行从国外吸引的额外央行流动性似乎较少。对中央银行的净债权(也控制负债)对 TARGET2 的净交易没有影响。然而,德国信贷机构的总体流动性越高,净流入就越多。外国银行因素只对中央银行支付和集团内支付有影响。我们还记录了影响德国 TARGET2 余额的不同类型交易的异质性。客户支付、银行间支付和中央银行支付增加了流向德国的净流量,而集团内支付和辅助系统交易则导致净流出。
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引用次数: 0
Exporter’s Productivity and the Cash-In-Advance Payment: Transaction-Level Analysis of Turkish Textile and Clothing Exports 出口商的生产力与预付货款:土耳其纺织品和服装出口的交易层面分析
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-02-22 DOI: 10.1007/s11079-024-09752-x
Kemal Türkcan, Yushi Yoshida, Taiyo Yoshimi

This study examines how the productivity of an exporter influences the choice of cash-in-advance (CIA) payment. Using the transaction-level data of Turkish textile and clothing exports from 2009 to 2017 merged with the firm-level information, we find that the relationship between the exporter’s productivity and the likelihood that the exporter uses the CIA is nonlinear. An exporter with higher productivity is more likely to choose the CIA; however, this tendency is mitigated among the highest-productivity exporters. We build a parsimonious theoretical model considering firm productivity heterogeneity and provide a rationale for those empirical findings. Furthermore, the CIA is more commonly used for exports in small transactions and to countries with a weak rule of law. We also show that the CIA is more likely to be used for destination countries with low gross domestic products per capita. In addition, the CIA is used more commonly when the value of the Lira is low against the destination country’s currency.

本研究探讨了出口商的生产率如何影响预付现金(CIA)支付的选择。利用 2009 年至 2017 年土耳其纺织品和服装出口的交易级数据与公司级信息合并,我们发现出口商的生产率与出口商使用预付现金支付的可能性之间存在非线性关系。生产率越高的出口商越有可能选择 CIA;然而,这种趋势在生产率最高的出口商中有所缓解。我们建立了一个考虑到企业生产率异质性的简明理论模型,并为这些经验发现提供了理论依据。此外,CIA 更常用于小额交易和对法治薄弱国家的出口。我们还发现,人均国内生产总值较低的目的地国家更有可能使用 CIA。此外,当里拉对目的地国货币价值较低时,更常使用中央投资协定。
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引用次数: 0
The Influence of Economic Institutions in the Debt-Growth Nexus: Evidence from Nigeria 经济机构在债务与增长关系中的影响:尼日利亚的证据
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-02-19 DOI: 10.1007/s11079-024-09749-6
Martins Iyoboyi, Abdullahi Badiru

This paper investigates the influence of economic institutions in the debt-growth nexus. Using data from 1970 to 2020 on Nigeria, the paper extends the econometric literature by deploying cointegration techniques that account for structural breaks. A long equilibrium relationship was found among debt, growth, economic institutions and associated variables. The effect of debt on growth was found to be positive up to a threshold of 13.62% and 27.19% of gross domestic product in the short and long-run respectively, beyond which its effect becomes negative and significant. Growth is more sensitive to economic institutions than debt, underscoring the criticality of institutions.

本文研究了经济体制在债务与增长关系中的影响。本文利用 1970 年至 2020 年尼日利亚的数据,通过采用考虑结构断裂的协整技术,对计量经济学文献进行了扩展。研究发现,债务、增长、经济体制和相关变量之间存在长期均衡关系。研究发现,债务对经济增长的影响在短期和长期分别达到国内生产总值的 13.62% 和 27.19% 的临界值时为正,超过这一临界值后,其影响变为负且显著。与债务相比,经济增长对经济体制更为敏感,这凸显了经济体制的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Open Economies Review
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