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The Government Spending Multiplier in the Presence of the Informal Sector 非正规经济部门存在时的政府支出乘数
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-01-18 DOI: 10.1007/s11079-023-09747-0
Ahmed Kamara

In a small open economy framework that features properties of the informal sector, I examine the relationship between this sector and the size of the government spending multiplier. I show that countries with relatively larger shares of this sector in their production are more inclined to generating smaller multipliers. In the presence of the informal sector, the marginal cost, inflation and the real interest rate respond more strongly to the rise in government spending compared to that of an economy without this sector. This leads to a larger fall in private consumption. The resultant multiplier is therefore smaller. In a liquidity trap period however, the amplifying effects of the informal sector on inflation leads to a larger multiplier compared to that of the economy without this sector. These findings suggest that the informal sector could be one of the major driving forces behind the relatively smaller multipliers in low-income countries (most of which are characterized by significantly large shares of this sector in their output).

在一个以非正规部门的特性为特征的小型开放经济框架中,我研究了该部门与政府支出乘数规模之间的关系。我的研究表明,非正规部门在生产中所占份额相对较大的国家更倾向于产生较小的乘数。与不存在非正规经济部门的经济体相比,存在非正规经济部门的经济体的边际成本、通货膨胀和实际利率对政府支出增加的反应更为强烈。这将导致私人消费的大幅下降。因此,由此产生的乘数较小。然而,在流动性陷阱时期,非正规经济部门对通货膨胀的放大效应会导致乘数大于没有该部门的经济。这些研究结果表明,非正规经济部门可能是低收入国家乘数相对较小的主要驱动力之一(其中大多数国家的特点是非正规经济部门在其产出中占很大比重)。
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引用次数: 0
Effectiveness of Macroprudential Policies on Credit Surge and Stop Episodes 宏观审慎政策对信贷激增和停止事件的效果
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-01-02 DOI: 10.1007/s11079-023-09744-3
Mehmet Fatih Ekinci, Turalay Kenc, Unay Tamgac Tezcan

When faced with capital flow and credit growth waves in recent years, policymakers have relied upon macroprudential regulation. This paper sheds light on a relatively less-analyzed policy issue: how macroprudential regulatory measures mitigate extreme credit growth episodes. We use a dynamic panel data approach to estimate the impact of MaPPs on credit growth volatility and the likelihood of credit growth boom and bust episodes. We find that MaPPs reduce credit growth volatility in both advanced economies (AEs) and emerging market economies (EMEs). In addition, MaPPs help to prevent credit surges in EMEs and stops in AEs. Our results show that there is a strong link between net capital flows and credit growth stop episodes. Net capital flow surges trigger a credit surge for EMEs. This suggests that policymakers should consider both MaPPs and capital flow management measures when designing policies to mitigate the risks associated with these phenomena.

近年来,面对资本流动和信贷增长的浪潮,政策制定者依赖于宏观审慎监管。本文揭示了一个相对较少分析的政策问题:宏观审慎监管措施如何缓解极端信贷增长事件。我们使用动态面板数据方法来估计宏观审慎监管措施对信贷增长波动性以及信贷增长繁荣和萧条事件发生可能性的影响。我们发现,在发达经济体(AEs)和新兴市场经济体(EMEs)中,购买力平价都能降低信贷增长的波动性。此外,购买力平价还有助于防止新兴市场经济体的信贷激增和发达经济体的信贷停止。我们的研究结果表明,净资本流动与信贷增长停止事件之间存在密切联系。净资本流动激增会引发新兴市场经济体信贷激增。这表明,政策制定者在制定政策以降低与这些现象相关的风险时,应同时考虑购买力平价和资本流动管理措施。
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引用次数: 0
The Controversy over European Inflation in 1500–1700: Precious Metals or Population? The English Evidence 1500-1700 年欧洲通货膨胀之争:贵金属还是人口?英国的证据
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-12-06 DOI: 10.1007/s11079-023-09743-4
Anthony Edo, Jacques Melitz

Economists and some economic historians dismiss the populationist hypothesis about responsibility of population growth for the European “Price Revolution”. They attribute the inflation instead to inflow of silver following discovery of the Americas. Based on English evidence in 1500–1700, we show that this dismissal of the populationist position flies in the face of the evidence. Further, whatever the weaknesses of past defenses of the populationist stand, it can be easily framed on a sound economic basis. We also examine critically the monetarist explanation of the Price Revolution. Both theses are jointly important and compatible.

经济学家和一些经济史学家否定了人口主义关于人口增长对欧洲 "价格革命 "负有责任的假设。他们将通货膨胀归咎于美洲发现后白银的流入。根据 1500-1700 年英国的证据,我们表明这种对人口主义立场的否定是不符合证据的。此外,无论过去对人口论立场的辩护有什么弱点,它都可以很容易地建立在合理的经济基础之上。我们还批判性地研究了货币主义对价格革命的解释。这两个论点都很重要,而且相互兼容。
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引用次数: 1
The Gibson Paradox and the Fisher Effect in Advanced and Emerging Economies 先进经济体和新兴经济体的吉布森悖论和费雪效应
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-12-05 DOI: 10.1007/s11079-023-09746-1
M. I. Chowdhury, Apostolos Serletis
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引用次数: 0
Time-Varying Effects of External Shocks on Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Peru: An Empirical Application using TVP-VAR-SV Models 外部冲击对秘鲁宏观经济波动的时变影响:TVP-VAR-SV模型的实证应用
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-11-24 DOI: 10.1007/s11079-023-09742-5
Gabriel Rodriguez, Paul Castillo B., Junior A. Ojeda Cunya

This study uses a family of VAR models with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility (TVP-VAR-SV) to analyze the impact of external shocks on output growth and inflation in Peru in 1992Q1-2017Q1. The statistical relevance of the models is assessed using the deviance information criterion (DIC) and the marginal log-likelihood calculated using the cross-entropy method. The results show that: (i) it is more relevant to introduce SV than TVP; i.e., the best fitting model admits only varying intercepts and SV; and TVP-VAR and CVAR are the least performing models; (ii) the models’ impulse response functions indicate that the impacts from external shocks are different under high inflation, economic crisis, and monetary policy change, with a greater impact in episodes of high uncertainty; (iii) the impact and importance of external shocks have increased over time; and (iv) the results are robust to changes in the priors, the lag structure, order of the variables, the choice of the external variable, and the selection of the variable for domestic economic activity.

本研究使用一系列具有时变参数和随机波动率的VAR模型(tpv -VAR- sv)来分析1992年第一季度至2017年第一季度外部冲击对秘鲁产出增长和通胀的影响。利用偏差信息准则(DIC)和交叉熵法计算的边际对数似然来评估模型的统计相关性。结果表明:(1)引入SV比引入TVP更具有相关性;即,最佳拟合模型只允许截距和SV的变化;TVP-VAR和CVAR是表现最差的模型;(2)模型的脉冲响应函数表明,在高通胀、经济危机和货币政策变化情况下,外部冲击的影响是不同的,在高不确定性时期的影响更大;(iii)外部冲击的影响和重要性随着时间的推移而增加;(4)结果对先验、滞后结构、变量顺序、外部变量选择和国内经济活动变量选择的变化都具有鲁棒性。
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引用次数: 0
Systemic Financial Crises and Income Inequality in OECD Countries 经合组织国家的系统性金融危机与收入不平等
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-11-16 DOI: 10.1007/s11079-023-09741-6
Puneet Arora, Alberto Chong, Carla Srebot
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引用次数: 0
Money Growth, Money Velocity and Inflation in the US, 1948–2021 1948-2021年美国货币增长、货币流通速度和通货膨胀
4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-11-11 DOI: 10.1007/s11079-023-09739-0
Juan E. Castañeda, José Luis Cendejas
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引用次数: 1
Effectiveness of Fiscal Announcements: Early Evidence from COVID-19 财政公告的有效性:来自COVID-19的早期证据
4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-11-07 DOI: 10.1007/s11079-023-09735-4
João Tovar Jalles, Bryn Battersby, Rachel Lee
Abstract This paper empirically examines the effectiveness of announced government fiscal measures in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. First, we build a new panel dataset of fiscal announcements by type, such as above-the line, below-the-line, and contingent liabilities for a wide sample of 136 advanced and developing countries between January 2020 and May 2021. Then, using this newly constructed dataset, we show, using both static and dynamic panel analyses, how various types of fiscal announcements affect alternative proxies of economic activity and across different income groups. We also evaluate how these effects vary depending on the country’s initial conditions (degree of public indebtedness or the business cycle positioning). Fiscal announcements also matter in terms of external credibility since they have an effect on government bond spreads. Ultimately, our findings suggest why it might be critical to consider the “news” effect of a fiscal measure by type rather than at the aggregated level.
摘要本文实证检验了新冠疫情背景下政府财政措施的有效性。首先,我们以136个发达国家和发展中国家为样本,在2020年1月至2021年5月期间建立了一个新的按类型(如线上、线下和或有负债)划分的财政公告面板数据集。然后,使用这个新构建的数据集,我们使用静态和动态面板分析,展示了不同类型的财政公告如何影响经济活动的替代代理,并在不同的收入群体中。我们还评估了这些影响如何根据国家的初始条件(公共债务程度或商业周期定位)而变化。财政公告在外部可信度方面也很重要,因为它们会对政府债券息差产生影响。最终,我们的研究结果表明,为什么按类型考虑财政措施的“新闻”效应,而不是在总体水平上考虑,可能是至关重要的。
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引用次数: 0
Distributional Effects of Structural Reforms in Developing Countries: Evidence from Financial Liberalization 发展中国家结构性改革的分配效应:来自金融自由化的证据
4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-11-02 DOI: 10.1007/s11079-023-09740-7
Kwamivi Mawuli Gomado
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引用次数: 0
Does the Interest Parity Puzzle Hold for Central and Eastern European Economies? 利率平价之谜是否适用于中东欧经济体?
4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-10-27 DOI: 10.1007/s11079-023-09738-1
Marek A. Dąbrowski, Jakub Janus
Abstract This paper examines the uncovered interest parity puzzle in Central and Eastern European countries. Apart from investigating baseline UIP regressions, we check for structural breaks in this relationship, scrutinize deviations from the UIP, and employ different estimation methods and models augmented with various risk measures. Moreover, we offer several extensions to the common UIP testing that account for foreign-exchange interventions, the implied volatility of exchange rates, and the limited availability of data on direct measures of market expectations. The study shows that the choice of the reference currency matters for the outcome of the interest parity tests in the CEE economies. In particular, we demonstrate that inconsistencies between the results of the UIP tests vis-à-vis the euro and the US dollar that appear in CEE economies may be accounted for by the movements of the euro-dollar risk premium. This regularity has not been documented in previous studies. Additionally, we show that (a) the FX interventions in Czechia distorted the UIP, (b) the directly measured exchange rate expectations (granular survey data) in Poland do not seem to be informed by the UIP relationship, (c) the limited resilience of CEE economies to rare disasters may plausibly explain deviations from the UIP.
摘要本文考察了中欧和东欧国家未揭示的利率平价之谜。除了研究基线UIP回归外,我们还检查了这种关系中的结构性断裂,仔细检查了与UIP的偏差,并采用了不同的估计方法和模型,增加了各种风险度量。此外,我们对常见的UIP测试提供了几个扩展,这些测试考虑了外汇干预、汇率隐含波动率以及市场预期直接度量数据的有限可用性。研究表明,参考货币的选择关系到中东欧经济体利率平价测试的结果。特别是,我们证明,在中东欧经济体中出现的UIP测试结果与-à-vis欧元和美元之间的不一致可能是由欧元-美元风险溢价的变动造成的。这种规律在以前的研究中没有记录。此外,我们表明(a)捷克的外汇干预扭曲了UIP, (b)波兰直接测量的汇率预期(颗粒调查数据)似乎不受UIP关系的影响,(c)中东欧经济体对罕见灾害的有限弹性可能合理地解释了与UIP的偏差。
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Open Economies Review
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