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Does Household Borrowing Reduce the Trade Balance? Evidence from Developing and Developed Countries 家庭借贷会减少贸易差额吗?来自发展中国家和发达国家的证据
4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-02-23 DOI: 10.1007/s11079-023-09713-w
Can Xu, Jan Jacobs, Jakob de Haan
Abstract We examine the dynamic impact of household borrowing on the trade balance using data from 32 developing countries and 36 developed countries over the 1980-2020 period. Our findings suggest that the impact of household borrowing on the trade balance is negative, both in the short and long run, but the effects are more pronounced in developing countries. Moreover, we find that for developing countries the negative effect of household borrowing on the trade balance is achieved via boosting imports. In developed countries, household borrowing stimulates both imports and exports, where the effect on imports is larger.
本文利用1980-2020年间32个发展中国家和36个发达国家的数据,研究了家庭借贷对贸易平衡的动态影响。我们的研究结果表明,无论从短期还是长期来看,家庭借贷对贸易平衡的影响都是负面的,但这种影响在发展中国家更为明显。此外,我们发现,对于发展中国家来说,家庭借贷对贸易平衡的负面影响是通过促进进口来实现的。在发达国家,家庭借贷刺激进口和出口,对进口的影响更大。
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引用次数: 0
The Role of Systemic Risk Spillovers in the Transmission of Euro Area Monetary Policy 系统性风险溢出在欧元区货币政策传导中的作用
4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-02-07 DOI: 10.1007/s11079-022-09707-0
Alexandros Skouralis
This paper empirically investigates the transmission of systemic risk across the Euro Area by employing a Global VAR model. We find that a union aggregate systemic risk shock results in a sharp decline in output, with two thirds of the response to be attributed to cross-country spillovers. The results indicate that peripheral economies have a disproportionate importance in spreading systemic risk compared to core countries. Then, we incorporate high-frequency monetary surprises into the model and we find evidence of the risk-taking channel of monetary policy. However, the relationship is reversed in the period of the ZLB, when expansionary shocks mitigate systemic risk, since they reduce market uncertainty and funding risk. Cross-country spillovers account for a significant fraction (17.4%) of systemic risk responses’ variation. We also show that near term guidance reduces systemic risk, whereas the initiation of the QE program has the opposite effect. Finally, the effectiveness of monetary policy exhibits significant asymmetries, with core countries driving the union response.
本文采用全球VAR模型对欧元区的系统性风险传导进行实证研究。我们发现,综合系统性风险冲击会导致产出急剧下降,其中三分之二的反应可归因于跨国溢出效应。结果表明,与核心国家相比,外围经济体在分散系统性风险方面具有不成比例的重要性。然后,我们将高频货币意外纳入模型,并找到了货币政策风险承担渠道的证据。然而,在ZLB时期,这种关系是相反的,当扩张性冲击减轻系统性风险时,因为它们降低了市场不确定性和融资风险。跨国溢出效应占系统性风险应对变化的很大一部分(17.4%)。我们还表明,短期指导可以降低系统性风险,而启动量化宽松计划则会产生相反的效果。最后,货币政策的有效性表现出明显的不对称性,核心国家推动了欧盟的反应。
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引用次数: 1
The Role of Systemic Risk Spillovers in the Transmission of Euro Area Monetary Policy 系统性风险溢出在欧元区货币政策传导中的作用
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-02-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3986747
Alexandros Skouralis
This paper empirically investigates the transmission of systemic risk across the Euro Area by employing a Global VAR model. We find that a union aggregate systemic risk shock results in a sharp decline in output, with two thirds of the response to be attributed to cross-country spillovers. The results indicate that peripheral economies have a disproportionate importance in spreading systemic risk compared to core countries. Then, we incorporate high-frequency monetary surprises into the model and we find evidence of the risk-taking channel of monetary policy . However, the relationship is reversed in the period of the ZLB, when expansionary shocks mitigate systemic risk, since they reduce market uncertainty and funding risk. Cross-country spillovers account for a significant fraction (17.4%) of systemic risk responses’ variation. We also show that near term guidance reduces systemic risk, whereas the initiation of the QE program has the opposite effect. Finally, the effectiveness of monetary policy exhibits significant asymmetries, with core countries driving the union response.
本文采用全球VAR模型对欧元区的系统性风险传导进行实证研究。我们发现,综合系统性风险冲击会导致产出急剧下降,其中三分之二的反应可归因于跨国溢出效应。结果表明,与核心国家相比,外围经济体在分散系统性风险方面具有不成比例的重要性。然后,我们将高频货币意外纳入模型,并找到了货币政策风险承担渠道的证据。然而,在ZLB时期,这种关系是相反的,当扩张性冲击减轻系统性风险时,因为它们降低了市场不确定性和融资风险。跨国溢出效应占系统性风险应对变化的很大一部分(17.4%)。我们还表明,短期指导可以降低系统性风险,而启动量化宽松计划则会产生相反的效果。最后,货币政策的有效性表现出明显的不对称性,核心国家推动了欧盟的反应。
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引用次数: 0
The COVID-19 Pandemic and Chinese Trade Relations 新冠肺炎疫情与中国贸易关系
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-02-03 DOI: 10.1007/s11079-022-09692-4
Jaqueline Hansen, Antonia Kamaliev, Hans‐Jörg Schmerer
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引用次数: 2
Macroeconomic Fluctuations in the United States: The Role of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Shocks 美国宏观经济波动:货币和财政政策冲击的作用
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-02-02 DOI: 10.1007/s11079-023-09712-x
Cosmas Dery, Apostolos Serletis
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引用次数: 1
Sectoral Exchange Rate Pass-through to Manufacturing Prices: A GVAR Approach 部门汇率传递到制造业价格:全球var方法
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-02-01 DOI: 10.1007/s11079-023-09711-y
Sérgio Kannebley, Diogo de Prince, Felipe dos Santos Costa
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引用次数: 2
Global Liquidity and Household Credit Growth 全球流动性与家庭信贷增长
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-01-31 DOI: 10.1007/s11079-022-09708-z
Berrak Bahadir, N. Valev
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引用次数: 0
Correction: Editorial – Recent Trends in International Reserves: Theory and Evidence 更正:社论-国际储备的最新趋势:理论和证据
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-01-19 DOI: 10.1007/s11079-022-09706-1
A. Mihailov
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引用次数: 0
Do Monetary Policy Shocks Have Asymmetric Effects on Stock Market? 货币政策冲击对股市有不对称影响吗?
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-01-14 DOI: 10.1007/s11079-022-09710-5
Victor Song, Libo Xu
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引用次数: 0
Religion and Equity Home Bias 宗教与公平的家乡偏见
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-01-12 DOI: 10.1007/s11079-022-09709-y
Junyong Lee, Kyounghun Lee, Frederick Dongchuhl Oh
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引用次数: 1
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