Journal of the Japanese and International Economies最新文献

I examine the epidemiological and economic effects of two types of lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan: a voluntary lockdown by which people voluntarily stayed at home in response to the risk of infection, and a request-based lockdown by which the government requested people to stay at home without legal enforcements. I use empirical evidence on these two types of lockdowns to extend an epidemiological and economic model: the SIR-Macro model. I calibrate this extended model to Japanese data and conduct some numerical experiments. The results show that the interaction of these two types of lockdowns plays an important role in the low proportion of infectious individuals and the large decrease in consumption in Japan.

This study makes a causal inference on the effects of anti-contagion and economic policies on small business by conducting a survey on Japanese small business managers’ expectations about the pandemic, policies, and firm performance. We first find the business suspension request decreased targeted firms’ sales by 10 percentage points on top of the baseline 9 percentage points decline due to COVID-19, even though the Japanese anti-contagion policy was in a form of the government’s request that is not legally enforceable. Second, using a discontinuity in the eligibility criteria, we find lump-sum and prompt subsidies improved firms’ prospects of survival by 19 percentage points. Third, the medium-run recovery of firms’ performance is expected to depend crucially on when infections would end, indicating that the anti-contagion policies could complement longer-run economic goals.

This study presents evidence on the relationship between employer-provided training and productivity. The important contributions of this study are its comparison of the relative contribution of training to productivity and wages and its distinction between manufacturing and service firms. The results indicate that training significantly contributes to the labor productivity, particularly for firms in the service sector. The elasticities of productivity and wages to training stock are similar in size, meaning that the returns to firms’ training investments are shared by their workers in proportion to the wage share of the value-added.

This study investigates how the effects of COVID-19 on international trade changed over time. To do that, we explore monthly data on worldwide trade from January to August in 2019 and 2020. Specifically, our study data include the exports of 34 countries to 173 countries. We estimated the gravity equation by employing various variables as a proxy for the COVID-19 damage. Our findings can be summarized as follows: First, regardless of our measures to quantify the COVID-19 pandemic, we found significantly negative effects of COVID-19 on the international trade of both exporting and importing countries. Second, those effects, especially the effects of COVID-19 in importing countries, tended to become insignificant since July 2020. This result implies that the harmful impacts of COVID-19 on international trade were accommodated after the first wave of the pandemic to some extent. Third, we found heterogeneous effects across industries. The negative effects on non-essential, durable products persist for a long time, whereas positive effects in industries providing medical products were observed.

We analyse the impact of work-life balance policies enacted by the government of Japan on the share of time allocated by Japanese women to paid employment, home production and leisure on a typical working day. Using panel data and employing fixed effects to control for unobserved individual heterogeneity, we find that these policies have had some success in increasing married women’s share of time spent in paid employment. However, the increase in the share of time spent in paid employment is not largely compensated by cutting down the share of time spent in home production. This necessitates the need to cut down the share of time spent for leisure, implying a “double burden” of work for women. Further, work-life balance policies in married men’s firms do not appear to significantly influence their time allocation between various activities on a typical working day. We find that although work-life balance policies do not appear to influence the desirability of having a child for all women, they help women with children younger than six years raise the share of time spent in paid employment by largely cutting down their time allocation to home production.

Although a growing body of literature identifies the within-firm redistribution effects of trade, research on the adjustment processes in within-firm labor markets remains scarce. This study analyzes the within-firm adjustment of working hours and wages by considering workers’ educational background and gender in response to a change in offshoring. Matched worker–firm panel data in the Japanese manufacturing sector covering 1998 to 2014 are used. The analysis leads to the following three observations. First, offshoring does not significantly alter the skill premium and gender gap in terms of scheduled monthly salaries and scheduled hourly wages. Second, offshoring decreases skill premium in annual hourly wages, whereas it increases gender gap in annual salaries. Third, this uneven impact on annual variables arises from the different changes in overtime working hours: college graduates work longer with a lower overtime premium, whereas female workers do not increase overtime work.

This study estimates the impact of the dramatic changes in housing prices during Japan's bubble from the late 1980s to the 1990s on households’ asset accumulation and utility over their life cycle. We construct a life-cycle model explaining households’ consumption/saving and housing decisions under collateral and borrowing constraints. We estimate this model using data from the Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES), which includes data on households’ housing wealth estimated from objective information. Using the estimated model, we then conduct a counterfactual simulation in which we assume that housing prices remained constant during the bubble period. Doing so allows us to quantify the gains/losses of lifetime utility due to the housing price boom and bust. We find that 72.2% of the households experienced an average decrease in lifetime utility equivalent to 5.7% of lifetime income. On average, Japan's housing price boom and bust caused a loss in lifetime utility equivalent to 4.7% of lifetime income. Moreover, we compare the impact of the housing price bubble across cohorts and find that the impact was greatest for those who experienced the bubble at ages 35–45.

Moralistic trust arises when people believe others share their moral values. I examine whether trust in the finance industry has a moral foundation by comparing values and attitudes of finance professionals with those of the general population in two data sets: a unique data set on values of CFAs in 2016 paired with the World Value Survey, and the European Social Survey. I show that differences in “ethical” values of finance professionals and members of the population are generally smaller in countries where people trust financial institutions more. But as trust increases, these value differences become larger. I show that selection helps reconcile the differences in the cross-sectional and time-series results. In periods of high trust in the finance industry, e.g. the pre-crisis period, finance professionals in the sample are less educated. While many are asked what they think about finance professionals, my results suggest that asking finance professionals what they think can provide insights into how trust evolves with selection into the industry.

The Child Allowance Policy (CAP) in Japan, a nationwide cash transfer program for families with children, was designed to increase household expenditures toward children. Using unforeseen changes in the CAP that occurred due to the electoral results as a source of exogenous variation in income in the early 2010s, this paper examines the causal impact of family income on households’ private educational expenditures and child outcomes in the short-run, based on a longitudinal parent-child survey. The ordinary least squares (OLS) and first-differenced (FD) results show that family income is in most cases positively correlated with child's cognitive outcomes, and, to a lesser extent, with families’ educational expenditure on their children. Based on the FD instrumental variable (FD-IV) estimation, using unexpected changes in CAP payments as an instrument, we find positive income effects on educational expenditure in the short-run. However, we did not find statistically significant impacts on children's cognitive outcomes.