Journal of the Japanese and International Economies最新文献

The inheritance taxation reform of 2015 in Japan substantially increased the amount of tax levied on large inheritances. This potentially served as a good incentive for people to build inexpensive low-rise apartments for tax savings, which increased the number of low-cost apartments. Therefore, this study investigates the effect of inheritance taxation reform on housing rents. Using the difference-in-differences method, we reveal that the inheritance taxation reform decreased the housing rents of wooden or light steel-framed apartments by 1.3%. Moreover, our results indicate that while the rental of slightly older housings belonging to the treatment group decreased, the rental of new housing belonging to the treatment group did not change.

We investigate the implications of government indebtedness for the efficacy of expansionary government spending in encouraging commercial bank lending growth during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our sample is a large cross-section of over 3000 banks from 71 countries. To address the likely endogeneity of government assistance, we instrument for extra-normal spending using disparities in pre-existing national political characteristics. Our results indicate that bank lending did respond to fiscal capacity, as higher public debt going into the crisis weakened the expansionary effects of higher spending on bank lending at economically and statistically significant levels. Moreover, this sensitivity was higher among weaker banks, suggesting sensitivity to the perceived implications of spending for government assistance going forward. We also found greater sensitivity in high-income economies and for small and medium-sized banks. Our results are robust to a variety of robustness tests, including perturbations in specification, sample, and estimation methodology.

This paper examines how the COVID-19 pandemic affected female employment in Japan. Our estimates indicate that the employment rate of married women with children decreased by 3.5 percentage points, while that of those without children decreased by only 0.3 percentage points, implying that increased childcare responsibilities caused a sharp decline in mothers’ employment. Further, mothers who left or lost their jobs appear to have dropped out of the labor force even several months after school reopening. In contrast to women, the employment rate of married men with children was not affected, which hindered progress in narrowing the employment gender gap.

This study investigates the characteristics of manufacturing job reallocation in Japan induced by import shocks from China during 1996–2016. Three types of import shocks are considered: direct, upstream, and downstream. Some salient features of job reallocation include decrease in total jobs from direct import, increase in small establishments’ jobs from downstream import, and job changes mainly induced establishments’ entry and exit. The sizeable difference of implied job changes in industry-level analysis and those in region-level analysis attributes to the local reallocation and aggregate demand effects determined by regional characteristics. The total job effect of three import shocks is negative in all cases examined. The method of decomposing job changes into detailed job flows and further into industry and regional factors, proposed in this study, enabled obtaining a clearer view of job reallocation and how import shocks travel through labor market.

This paper describes one of the first attempts to gauge the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global trajectory of real GDP over the course of 2020 and 2021. It is also among the first efforts to distinguish between the role of domestic variables and global trade in transmitting the economic effects of COVID-19. We estimate panel data regressions of the quarterly growth in real GDP on pandemic variables for 90 countries over the period 2020 Q1 through 2021 Q4. We find that readings on the number of COVID-19 deaths had a very small effect in our aggregate sample. On the other hand, changes in the stringency of the lockdown measures taken by governments to restrict the spread of the virus were an important influence on GDP. The economic effects of the pandemic differed between rich and poor countries: COVID-19 deaths exerted a somewhat greater drag on GDP in advanced economies, although this difference was not statistically significant, whereas lockdown restrictions were more injurious to economic activity in emerging and developing economies. In addition to these domestic pandemic effects, global trade represented a significant channel through which the economic effects of the pandemic spilled across national borders. This finding underscores how globalization makes each country vulnerable not only to medical contagion from the COVID-19 pandemic, but to economic contagion as well.

Using a survey of and financial data for Japanese small- and medium-enterprises (SMEs), this paper examines the determinants of firms’ use of the business support programs provided by the Japanese government during the COVID-19 pandemic and their effect. With respect to the determinants, we obtain the following three findings: First, firms were more likely to have obtained subsidized loans, grants, or subsidies the more their sales had fallen during the pandemic, suggesting that funds flowed to firms that were adversely affected by the pandemic. Second, the likelihood that firms obtained funds was higher if their credit scores were lower or if they were classified as “zombies” and/or “low-return borrowers” before the pandemic, suggesting that the government programs also helped firms that had been under-performing before the pandemic. Third, firms were more likely to receive funds if they had a stronger relationship with their main bank before, suggesting that bank relationships play an important role in firms’ access to government programs. Regarding the causal effects, we obtain the following three findings: First, except for the subsidies for employment adjustment, the support programs increased the cash holdings of user firms. Second, subsidized loans from private financial institutions lowered exit rates, while none of the programs had a significantly positive effect on employment relative to non-users (or in absolute terms). Third, the credit scores and profit-to-sales ratio of firms that used the support programs decreased and the likelihood of such firms being a zombie and/or a low-return borrower increased. Overall, our findings provide a cautionary tale in that the business support programs produced mixed results in that they may have prevented business failures but have also helped to prop up firms that are not viable in the long run.

This paper examines to what extent self-employed households underreport their income to tax authorities in Japan. To this end, we employ the so-called expenditure-based approach, which essentially compares the current expenditure of self-employed and wage earner households while controlling for their income, net worth, and household characteristics. Using Japanese household-level panel data for the period 2009−2019, we find that the self-employed possibly underreport their income by 33.0–36.4%. Our findings are also robust to the different preferences (degree of risk-loving, time discount rates, etc.), planned retirement age, and degree of measurement error in expenditure between the self-employed and wage earners.

For over two centuries, the municipal (muni) bond market has been a source of systemic risk, which returned early in the Covid-19 downturn when borrowing from securities markets became costly for many private and public entities, and some found it difficult to borrow at all. Indeed, just before the Fed announced its unprecedented intervention into the muni market, spreads of muni over Treasury yields rose in line with the unemployment rate and appeared headed to levels not seen since the Great Depression, when real municipal gross investment plunged 35 percent below 1929 levels. To prevent such a calamity, the Fed created the Municipal Liquidity Facility (MLF) to purchase newly issued, (near) investment-grade state and local government bonds at ratings-based interest rate spreads over the safe OIS benchmark yield. In general, these spreads were initially about 100 basis points above average spreads under more normal market conditions and were later lowered by 50 basis points in August 2020. Despite a modest take-up, our study documents the MLF prevented muni spreads from rising much above those margins (plus a modest 10 basis point fee) and limited the extent to which interest rate spreads could have amplified the impact of the Covid pandemic. To establish the MLF the Fed needed Treasury indemnification against default losses. There were concerns about whether the creation of the MLF could induce moral hazard among borrowers and could undermine the efficiency of the bond market if the facility had lasted too long. Partly for this reason and because the muni market had settled down by yearend 2020, the Treasury terminated the MLF at that time. Future assessments of these downside aspects will help answer the question whether the program's benefits addressed here exceeded its costs.

This study addresses the issues of whether foreign firms outperform domestic firms in markups and whether the presence of foreign firms dampens the markup of their local counterparts in the Chinese market. Analysis of a firm-level panel dataset, we find foreign-invested enterprises (FIEs), particularly those not from Hong Kong–Macau–Taiwan, charging a higher markup. Estimations on the determinants of markups highlight the important roles played by technological capability and intangible assets. The potential channels and mechanisms are also discussed. Entering the Chinese market through joint ventures helps FIEs raise markups, and this effect is notable for HMT–FIEs, which might have a relative advantage of cultural proximity than other FIEs. Sharing equality with national capital to construct political connection (guanxi) also helps facilitate markups. Crucially, foreign presence is positively related to local firms’ markups, suggesting that the spillover and linkage effects dominate the competition pressure brought about by foreign direct investment.

Studies founded on Becker's theory of employers’ taste-based discrimination show that discrimination arises not from “taste” but from “prejudice,” “belief,” and “stereotype.” However whether the “employer” is the source of discrimination remains unanswered. Thus, survey research using employers as a sample is indispensable to address this issue. In this study, we use a unique data set that employers can identify to analyze whether their gender stereotypes are the source of gender discrimination. The analysis showed that employers' strong stereotypes reduced women's proportion in companies. Furthermore, when the employer is a woman, her stereotype strongly influences women's proportion.