Pub Date : 1996-10-01DOI: 10.1111/J.1468-0351.1996.TB00180.X
Roland Döhrn, U. Heilemann
The Newly Liberalizing Countries (NLCs) in Eastern Europe have to undergo a fundamental structural change. In this paper the Chenery Hypothesis (CH) is employed to make a quantitative assessment of this change. The CH, roughly speaking, relates an economy's sectoral structure to its stage of development, its size, and its endowment with natural resources. The paper tests this hypothesis for a sample of 31 developed and developing economies and finds it still valid. Then it uses the results obtained to measure distortions in the NLCs' existing economic structure and to give a projection of future structural change. The calculations make it evident that the industrial sector in the NLCs will experience a marked downsizing whilst the service sector turns out to be too small. But sectoral patterns are not too uniform for all groups of countries. Thus, all projections depend highly on the reference group used to evaluate a 'master pattern'. Copyright 1996 The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
{"title":"The Chenery hypothesis and structural change in Eastern Europe","authors":"Roland Döhrn, U. Heilemann","doi":"10.1111/J.1468-0351.1996.TB00180.X","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/J.1468-0351.1996.TB00180.X","url":null,"abstract":"The Newly Liberalizing Countries (NLCs) in Eastern Europe have to undergo a fundamental structural change. In this paper the Chenery Hypothesis (CH) is employed to make a quantitative assessment of this change. The CH, roughly speaking, relates an economy's sectoral structure to its stage of development, its size, and its endowment with natural resources. The paper tests this hypothesis for a sample of 31 developed and developing economies and finds it still valid. Then it uses the results obtained to measure distortions in the NLCs' existing economic structure and to give a projection of future structural change. The calculations make it evident that the industrial sector in the NLCs will experience a marked downsizing whilst the service sector turns out to be too small. But sectoral patterns are not too uniform for all groups of countries. Thus, all projections depend highly on the reference group used to evaluate a 'master pattern'. Copyright 1996 The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.","PeriodicalId":47148,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Transition","volume":"13 1","pages":"411-425"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1996-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77633033","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1996-10-01DOI: 10.1111/J.1468-0351.1996.TB00187.X
D. Nuti
{"title":"European Community response to the transition: aid, trade access, enlargement 1","authors":"D. Nuti","doi":"10.1111/J.1468-0351.1996.TB00187.X","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/J.1468-0351.1996.TB00187.X","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47148,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Transition","volume":"34 1","pages":"503-511"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1996-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81585730","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1996-10-01DOI: 10.1111/J.1468-0351.1996.TB00184.X
Ahmet Mancellari, Harry Papapanagos, Peter Sanfey
This paper focuses on job flows and unemployment in Albania during the transition from a closed, communist system to an open, free-market economy, and examines the role of emigration in the restructuring of the country. Our theoretical model indicates that in Albania, temporary emigration may have a significant positive effect on hiring in the private sector, reducing unemployment. Using sectoral data on employment, we illustrate the importance of emigration as an alternative for the Albanian labour force, and we measure the extent to which job 'destruction' in some sectors of the economy has been compensated for by job 'creation' in others. On these grounds, we compare the progress of Albania with other former socialist countries in Europe. Copyright 1996 The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
{"title":"Job creation and temporary emigration: the Albanian experience1","authors":"Ahmet Mancellari, Harry Papapanagos, Peter Sanfey","doi":"10.1111/J.1468-0351.1996.TB00184.X","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/J.1468-0351.1996.TB00184.X","url":null,"abstract":"This paper focuses on job flows and unemployment in Albania during the transition from a closed, communist system to an open, free-market economy, and examines the role of emigration in the restructuring of the country. Our theoretical model indicates that in Albania, temporary emigration may have a significant positive effect on hiring in the private sector, reducing unemployment. Using sectoral data on employment, we illustrate the importance of emigration as an alternative for the Albanian labour force, and we measure the extent to which job 'destruction' in some sectors of the economy has been compensated for by job 'creation' in others. On these grounds, we compare the progress of Albania with other former socialist countries in Europe. Copyright 1996 The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.","PeriodicalId":47148,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Transition","volume":"14 1","pages":"471-490"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1996-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89694775","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1996-10-01DOI: 10.1111/J.1468-0351.1996.TB00189.X
I. Goldin
{"title":"EU accession and transition","authors":"I. Goldin","doi":"10.1111/J.1468-0351.1996.TB00189.X","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/J.1468-0351.1996.TB00189.X","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47148,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Transition","volume":"85 1","pages":"515-520"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1996-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83897231","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1996-10-01DOI: 10.1111/J.1468-0351.1996.TB00182.X
Dirk Wilier, R. Nash
This note analyses the valuation of Russian assets focusing on the market capitalization of major Russian firms trading in Moscow. It documents that valuations are very low compared to similar assets in mature economies. Several reasons are advanced to explain this phenomenon. The most important of these seems to be the poor record of Russian firms with respect to honouring shareholder rights. Some policy proposals are made to address this problem. Copyright 1996 The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
{"title":"Reasons for the low valuation of Russian shares","authors":"Dirk Wilier, R. Nash","doi":"10.1111/J.1468-0351.1996.TB00182.X","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/J.1468-0351.1996.TB00182.X","url":null,"abstract":"This note analyses the valuation of Russian assets focusing on the market capitalization of major Russian firms trading in Moscow. It documents that valuations are very low compared to similar assets in mature economies. Several reasons are advanced to explain this phenomenon. The most important of these seems to be the poor record of Russian firms with respect to honouring shareholder rights. Some policy proposals are made to address this problem. Copyright 1996 The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.","PeriodicalId":47148,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Transition","volume":"15 1","pages":"449-457"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1996-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77429127","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1996-10-01DOI: 10.1111/J.1468-0351.1996.TB00188.X
R. Baldwin
, Most debates in the European Union are about money, yet its true mission is the promotion of peace and prosperity in Europe. In these terms, Eastern enlargement is the most important initiative since the Treaty of Rome. Quite simply, enlargement is a key pillar in the European post-Cold War architecture. It is essential for European peace and prosperity in the 21st century. Unfortunately, it will also be the EU’s most difficult enlargement for incumbents and entrants alike. Difficult for incumbents because the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) are so economically different from the incumbent nations. This necessitates politically difficult reforms in the EU. Difficult for the entrants because the necessary transformations of their economies and governments are massive and politically painful. To face these difficulties, two pre-accession strategies are needed, one for the EU and one for the CEECs. So far, only the CEECs admit that they need pre-accession strategies. The White Paper released at last year’s EU Cannes Summit clarifies an important component of the CEECs’ pre-accession strategy. While it contained no new policy initiatives, it provided a detailed prioritizing of Single Market legislation and the enhancement of technical and financial assistance to the CEECs. Both aspects help by boosting the predictability and credibility of the CEECs’ transformations and the EU’s evaluation of these reforms. 2. The EU’s missing strategy
{"title":"Progressive economic integration: making the magic work again","authors":"R. Baldwin","doi":"10.1111/J.1468-0351.1996.TB00188.X","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/J.1468-0351.1996.TB00188.X","url":null,"abstract":", Most debates in the European Union are about money, yet its true mission is the promotion of peace and prosperity in Europe. In these terms, Eastern enlargement is the most important initiative since the Treaty of Rome. Quite simply, enlargement is a key pillar in the European post-Cold War architecture. It is essential for European peace and prosperity in the 21st century. Unfortunately, it will also be the EU’s most difficult enlargement for incumbents and entrants alike. Difficult for incumbents because the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) are so economically different from the incumbent nations. This necessitates politically difficult reforms in the EU. Difficult for the entrants because the necessary transformations of their economies and governments are massive and politically painful. To face these difficulties, two pre-accession strategies are needed, one for the EU and one for the CEECs. So far, only the CEECs admit that they need pre-accession strategies. The White Paper released at last year’s EU Cannes Summit clarifies an important component of the CEECs’ pre-accession strategy. While it contained no new policy initiatives, it provided a detailed prioritizing of Single Market legislation and the enhancement of technical and financial assistance to the CEECs. Both aspects help by boosting the predictability and credibility of the CEECs’ transformations and the EU’s evaluation of these reforms. 2. The EU’s missing strategy","PeriodicalId":47148,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Transition","volume":"56 1","pages":"512-514"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1996-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77201039","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1996-10-01DOI: 10.1111/J.1468-0351.1996.TB00175.X
E. Friedman, Simon Johnson
The authors report on technical work which examines the implications of combining complementarities and convex adjustment costs in a model of economic reform. The main results are that the optimal pace of reform is higher if there is a larger initial crisis, stronger pro-reform institutions, and greater immediate potential entrepreneurship. This supports the argument that radical reform was appropriate for most countries in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, while gradualism was more appropriate for a country like China. Copyright 1996 The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
{"title":"Complementarities in economic reform","authors":"E. Friedman, Simon Johnson","doi":"10.1111/J.1468-0351.1996.TB00175.X","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/J.1468-0351.1996.TB00175.X","url":null,"abstract":"The authors report on technical work which examines the implications of combining complementarities and convex adjustment costs in a model of economic reform. The main results are that the optimal pace of reform is higher if there is a larger initial crisis, stronger pro-reform institutions, and greater immediate potential entrepreneurship. This supports the argument that radical reform was appropriate for most countries in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, while gradualism was more appropriate for a country like China. Copyright 1996 The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.","PeriodicalId":47148,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Transition","volume":"47 1","pages":"319-329"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1996-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88484154","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1995-06-01DOI: 10.1111/J.1468-0351.1995.TB00134.X
W. Carlin, P. Richthofen
The role of banks in the transition concerns three issues: the bad loans problem, the role of banks in providing a solution to the problems of corporate governance of privatized enterprises and the access of new enterprises to finance for investment. This paper shows how the combination of early privatization of the banking system plus financial restructuring of enterprises by the Treuhand prevented the development of a 'bad loans' problem in East Germany. The merits of banks as large stakeholders in privatized enterprises has been frequently debated in Eastern Europe. Although the role of banks as owners of non-financial companies in West Germany is frequently exaggerated, there was a widespread public expectation that they would play a considerable role in the restructuring of East German enterprises. We show that their role in acquiring stakes in privatized firms in East Germany has been negligible and suggest reasons for this outcome. East Germany is characterized by a very high level of investment and the second part of the paper investigates how the financial system can affect the relationship between investment and growth. It has been argued that the inefficiencies of both development and commercial banking in the Italian Mezzogiorno have contributed to the failure there of high levels of investment to translate into growth. The efficiency characteristics of development and commercial banking in Southern Italy are contrasted with those in East Germany. Considerable attention is given to the extent of competition in commercial banking and to the delegation by the development banks of screening and monitoring activities to the commercial banks, which characterizes the German system. It is argued that the German banking system which has been transferred to East Germany does not suffer from the inefficiencies found in Italy. Evidence is provided for the convergence of the structure of banking in East and West Germany. Nevertheless, in spite of the extensive access of East German firms to development bank finance, evidence is provided that the financial system does not foster investment in intangibles such as in marketing and in R&D. This has serious consequences for those firms which are not owned by Western firms and hence do not have access to the retained earnings of the owner, nor to the ability of the owner to guarantee loans from the banking system.
{"title":"Finance, economic development and the transition: the East German case","authors":"W. Carlin, P. Richthofen","doi":"10.1111/J.1468-0351.1995.TB00134.X","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/J.1468-0351.1995.TB00134.X","url":null,"abstract":"The role of banks in the transition concerns three issues: the bad loans problem, the role of banks in providing a solution to the problems of corporate governance of privatized enterprises and the access of new enterprises to finance for investment. This paper shows how the combination of early privatization of the banking system plus financial restructuring of enterprises by the Treuhand prevented the development of a 'bad loans' problem in East Germany. The merits of banks as large stakeholders in privatized enterprises has been frequently debated in Eastern Europe. Although the role of banks as owners of non-financial companies in West Germany is frequently exaggerated, there was a widespread public expectation that they would play a considerable role in the restructuring of East German enterprises. We show that their role in acquiring stakes in privatized firms in East Germany has been negligible and suggest reasons for this outcome. East Germany is characterized by a very high level of investment and the second part of the paper investigates how the financial system can affect the relationship between investment and growth. It has been argued that the inefficiencies of both development and commercial banking in the Italian Mezzogiorno have contributed to the failure there of high levels of investment to translate into growth. The efficiency characteristics of development and commercial banking in Southern Italy are contrasted with those in East Germany. Considerable attention is given to the extent of competition in commercial banking and to the delegation by the development banks of screening and monitoring activities to the commercial banks, which characterizes the German system. It is argued that the German banking system which has been transferred to East Germany does not suffer from the inefficiencies found in Italy. Evidence is provided for the convergence of the structure of banking in East and West Germany. Nevertheless, in spite of the extensive access of East German firms to development bank finance, evidence is provided that the financial system does not foster investment in intangibles such as in marketing and in R&D. This has serious consequences for those firms which are not owned by Western firms and hence do not have access to the retained earnings of the owner, nor to the ability of the owner to guarantee loans from the banking system.","PeriodicalId":47148,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Transition","volume":"18 1","pages":"169-195"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1995-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82988813","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1995-06-01DOI: 10.1111/J.1468-0351.1995.TB00135.X
R. Struyk, J. Daniell
{"title":"Housing privatization in urban Russia","authors":"R. Struyk, J. Daniell","doi":"10.1111/J.1468-0351.1995.TB00135.X","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/J.1468-0351.1995.TB00135.X","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47148,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Transition","volume":"70 1","pages":"197-214"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1995-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82794092","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1995-06-01DOI: 10.1111/J.1468-0351.1995.TB00137.X
M. Schaffer
{"title":"Round table on \"Divestiture of social services from state-owned enterprises\"","authors":"M. Schaffer","doi":"10.1111/J.1468-0351.1995.TB00137.X","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/J.1468-0351.1995.TB00137.X","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47148,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Transition","volume":"38 1","pages":"247-250"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1995-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88485467","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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