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Bank Supervision 银行监管
IF 3.2 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2022-04-01 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-financial-111620-022516
B. Hirtle, A. Kovner
We provide a critical review of the empirical and theoretical literature on bank supervision. This review focuses on microprudential supervision: the supervision of individual banking institutions aimed at assessing the financial and operational health of those firms. Theory suggests that supervision is required not only to ensure compliance with regulation but also to allow for the use of soft information in mitigating externalities of bank failure. Empirically, more intensive supervision results in reduced risk-taking, but less consensus has been found on whether the risk-reducing impact of supervision comes at the cost of reduced credit supply. Theoretical costs and benefits of supervisory disclosure have been outlined, and this disclosure is informative to investors; however, it is difficult to identify the impact of disclosure distinct from supervisory and regulatory changes. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Financial Economics, Volume 13 is November 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
我们对银行监管的实证和理论文献进行了批判性的回顾。这篇综述的重点是微观审慎监管:对个别银行机构的监管,旨在评估这些公司的财务和运营健康状况。理论表明,监管不仅需要确保遵守监管,还需要允许使用软信息来减轻银行倒闭的外部性。从经验上看,更密集的监管会减少风险承担,但对于监管的风险降低影响是否以减少信贷供应为代价,人们还没有达成共识。概述了监管披露的理论成本和收益,该披露对投资者具有信息性;然而,很难将披露的影响与监管和监管变化区分开来。《金融经济学年度评论》第13卷预计最终在线出版日期为2022年11月。请参阅http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates用于修订估算。
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引用次数: 5
Sovereign Debt Sustainability and Central Bank Credibility 主权债务可持续性与央行可信度
IF 3.2 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2022-03-22 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-financial-112921-110812
Tim Willems,Jeromin Zettelmeyer
This article surveys the literature on sovereign debt sustainability from its origins in the mid-1980s to the present and focuses on four debates. First, we evaluate the shift from an accounting-based view of debt sustainability using government borrowing rates to a model-based view that uses stochastic discount rates. Second, we review empirical tests, focusing on the relationship between primary balances and debt. Third, we discuss debt sustainability in the presence of rollover risk. And fourth, we evaluate whether government borrowing costs below rates of growth ( r < g) generate a free lunch, in the sense that debt sustainability does not require future primary surpluses. We argue that liquidity services provided by sovereign debt may indeed lead to a free lunch, albeit one of limited size. The value of such services depends on the credibility of the central bank, which can be accumulated via prudent policies and subsequently drawn on to allow for looser fiscal policy. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Financial Economics, Volume 13 is November 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
本文综述了从20世纪80年代中期到现在有关主权债务可持续性的文献,并重点讨论了四场辩论。首先,我们评估了从使用政府借款利率的基于会计的债务可持续性观点到使用随机贴现率的基于模型的观点的转变。其次,我们回顾了实证检验,重点关注基本余额与债务之间的关系。第三,我们讨论了存在展期风险的债务可持续性。第四,我们评估政府借贷成本是否低于增长率(r <G)产生免费午餐,从某种意义上说,债务可持续性不需要未来的基本盈余。我们认为,主权债务提供的流动性服务可能确实会带来免费午餐,尽管规模有限。这些服务的价值取决于央行的信誉,这种信誉可以通过审慎的政策积累起来,随后用于实施更宽松的财政政策。《金融经济学年度评论》第13卷的最终在线出版日期预计为2022年11月。修订后的估计数请参阅http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates。
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引用次数: 0
Bitcoin and Beyond 比特币及其他
IF 3.2 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2022-03-22 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-financial-111620-011240
Kose John, Maureen O'Hara, Fahad Saleh
We survey extant literature on the economics of blockchain fundamentals, with particular focus on Bitcoin, proof-of-work, and proof-of-stake. We formally clarify Bitcoin's economic significance in solving the double-spending problem without a centralized entity. We then transition to the economics literature, highlighting the key endogenous economic interactions among participants in the Bitcoin ecosystem as well as the economics of proof-of-stake and other potential consensus algorithms. Along the way, we discuss various literature that provides important insights regarding fees, forks, and price volatility. We conclude by reflecting on the next generation of blockchain innovations. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Financial Economics, Volume 13 is November 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
我们调查了关于区块链基本面经济学的现有文献,特别关注比特币,工作量证明和权益证明。我们正式澄清了比特币在没有中心化实体的情况下解决双重支出问题的经济意义。然后,我们转向经济学文献,重点介绍比特币生态系统参与者之间的关键内生经济互动,以及权益证明和其他潜在共识算法的经济学。在此过程中,我们讨论了各种文献,这些文献提供了关于费用,分叉和价格波动的重要见解。最后,我们对b区块链的下一代创新进行了反思。《金融经济学年度评论》第13卷的最终在线出版日期预计为2022年11月。修订后的估计数请参阅http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates。
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引用次数: 12
Does the Yield Curve Predict Output? 收益率曲线能预测产出吗?
IF 3.2 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-11-01 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-financial-100620-065648
Joseph G. Haubrich
Does the yield curve have the ability to predict output and recessions? At some times and in certain places, of course! But when and where, which aspects of the curve matter most, and which economic forces account for the predictive ability are matters of dispute. Over the years, an increasingly sophisticated set of tools, both statistical and theoretical, has addressed the issue. For the United States, an inverted yield curve, particularly when the spread between the yield on 10-year and 3-month Treasuries becomes negative, has been a robust indicator of recessions in the post–World War II period. The spread also predicts future real GDP growth for the United States, although the forecast ability varies by time period in ways that appear to depend on monetary policy. The evidence is less clear in other countries, but the yield curve shows some predictive ability for the United Kingdom and Germany, among others.
收益率曲线有能力预测产出和衰退吗?当然是在某些时候和某些地方!但何时何地,曲线的哪些方面最重要,以及哪些经济力量决定了预测能力,这些都是有争议的问题。多年来,一套越来越复杂的统计和理论工具已经解决了这个问题。对美国而言,收益率曲线倒挂,尤其是当10年期和3个月期公债收益率之差变为负值时,一直是二战后经济衰退的有力指标。该利差还能预测美国未来的实际GDP增长,尽管预测能力因时间而异,似乎取决于货币政策。其他国家的证据不太清楚,但收益率曲线显示出对英国和德国等国的一些预测能力。
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引用次数: 0
A Look Back and a Way Forward 回顾与前进
IF 3.2 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-11-01 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-fe-13-090321-100001
A. Lo, R. C. Merton
It has been an eventful 12 years since first beginning the privilege of serving as founding editors of the Annual Review of Financial Economics for its inaugural volume in 2009. In the wake of the worst global financial crisis any of us had experienced in our lifetimes, financial economics moved from a mathematically arcane subject known to a relative handful of academics and practitioners into the mainstream of policy debates and political discussion, even to the point of populist fervor. This striking sea change is a result not only of the 2008 Financial Crisis but also of the extraordinary flow of financial innovation that has continued unabated to this day, despite the cautionary soul-searching that followed those fateful events. The unique interplay between the theory and practice of financial economics, combined with technological advances permitting greater democratization of the markets, has led to an unusual state in which passive investing is more popular than ever before—but so are highly volatile assets such as cryptocurrencies, digitally signed works of art, and “meme stocks.” As the financial environment has changed, so has the content of the Annual Review of Financial Economics, although with some lag. The form of the Annual Reviews series is intentionally reflective—“reviews with attitude,” according to Susan T. Fiske, a Co-Editor of the Annual Review of Psychology, and to develop “attitude” toward a given body of literature is necessarily backward-looking. Nevertheless, the Annual Review of Financial Economics, like the Annual Reviews in other fields, has endeavored to inform readers of potential future directions of research through our selection of topics, providing a map of interesting territories for future pathfinders to follow. We have thus been honored to publish retrospectives by such giants of financial economics as Paul Samuelson, Harry Markowitz, and Eugene Fama and articles about the careers of Fischer Black, Stephen Ross, and Robert C. Merton. These articles have the overt mission to reaffirm the study of financial economics as a scientific endeavor with a distinct historical lineage of its own, whose insights are specific to this unique field. In addition, this journal has explored in depth the causes of the 2008 Financial Crisis, as befits its significance, including a special issue on the occasion of its tenth anniversary. The content of these reviews have ranged from the theoretical and geopolitical ramifications of the crisis to discussions of its practical and pragmatic response.One particular goal of this journal has been to provide its readership with information on the less familiar parts of the “infernal machine” that led to the crisis, including credit default swaps, the collateralized debt obligation, the mortgage-backed securities market, the real estate market, and government policies that facilitated and fueled these innovations.
自2009年首次有幸担任《金融经济学年度评论》创刊编辑以来,这已经是多事之秋的12年。在我们一生中经历过的最严重的全球金融危机之后,金融经济学从一个为数不多的学者和从业者所知的数学神秘学科,进入了政策辩论和政治讨论的主流,甚至达到了民粹主义的狂热。这一惊人的巨变不仅是2008年金融危机的结果,也是金融创新的非凡流动的结果,尽管在这些灾难性事件之后进行了谨慎的反思,但这种创新一直持续到今天。金融经济学理论和实践之间的独特相互作用,加上技术进步使市场更加民主化,导致了一种不同寻常的状态,在这种状态下,被动投资比以往任何时候都更受欢迎,但加密货币、数字签名艺术品和“模因股票”等高度波动的资产也是如此。“随着金融环境的变化,《金融经济学年度评论》的内容也发生了变化,尽管有一些滞后。《心理学年度评论》的联合编辑苏珊·T·菲斯克认为,《年度评论》系列的形式是有意反思的——“带态度的评论”,对特定文学作品发展“态度”必然是向后看的。尽管如此,《金融经济学年度评论》和其他领域的《年度评论》一样,通过我们的选题,努力让读者了解未来潜在的研究方向,为未来的探路者提供了一张有趣的领域地图。因此,我们荣幸地发表了保罗·萨缪尔森、哈里·马科维茨和尤金·法马等金融经济学巨头的回顾文章,以及关于菲舍尔·布莱克、斯蒂芬·罗斯和罗伯特·C·默顿职业生涯的文章。这些文章的公开使命是重申金融经济学研究是一项具有独特历史谱系的科学努力,其见解是专门针对这一独特领域的。此外,本杂志还深入探讨了2008年金融危机的原因,以适应其重要性,包括在其十周年之际发行了一期特刊。这些评论的内容从危机的理论和地缘政治影响到对其实际和务实应对措施的讨论。本杂志的一个特别目标是为读者提供导致危机的“地狱机器”中不太熟悉的部分的信息,包括信用违约互换、债务抵押债券、抵押贷款支持证券市场、房地产市场,以及促进和推动这些创新的政府政策。
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引用次数: 0
Do Capital Structure Models Square with the Dynamics of Payout? 资本结构模型是否符合股利动态?
IF 3.2 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-11-01 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-financial-010421-085556
Shiqi Chen,Bart M. Lambrecht
We explore whether theoretically the target leverage and pecking-order models can be reconciled with payout smoothing. Investment absorbs a significant part of income and asset volatility if the firm follows both a payout target and a net debt ratio (NDR) target. A positive (negative) NDR amplifies (dampens) shocks in assets. Slow adjustment toward the NDR target facilitates payout smoothing. Under strict pecking-order financing, income shocks are absorbed primarily by changes in net debt. More payout smoothing implies a stronger negative relation between debt and net income. Shocks to assets in place need not affect current payout.
我们从理论上探讨了目标杠杆和啄食顺序模型是否可以与支付平滑相协调。如果公司同时遵循支付目标和净负债率(NDR)目标,投资将吸收收入和资产波动的很大一部分。正(负)的NDR放大(抑制)了资产的冲击。向NDR目标缓慢调整有助于支付平滑。在严格的等级融资下,收入冲击主要被净债务的变化所吸收。更多的支付平滑意味着债务和净收入之间的负相关关系更强。对现有资产的冲击不一定会影响当前的支出。
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引用次数: 0
The Economics of Insurance: A Derivatives-Based Approach 保险经济学:一种基于衍生品的方法
IF 3.2 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-11-01 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-financial-040721-075128
Robert A. Jarrow
This article revisits the economics of insurance using insights from derivatives pricing and hedging. Applying this perspective, I emphasize the following insights applicable to insurance. First, I provide a valid justification for the use of arbitrage-free insurance premiums. This justification applies in both complete and incomplete markets. Second, I demonstrate the importance of diversifiable idiosyncratic risk for the determination of insurance premiums. And third, analyzing the insurance industry using the functional approach, I show the importance of derivatives and the synthetic construction of derivatives for reducing an insurance company's insolvency risk.
本文使用衍生品定价和套期保值的见解重新审视保险经济学。从这个角度来看,我强调以下适用于保险的见解。首先,我为使用无套利保险费提供了一个有效的理由。这个理由既适用于完全市场,也适用于不完全市场。其次,我证明了可分散的特殊风险对于确定保险费的重要性。第三,运用函数法对保险业进行分析,说明了衍生品的重要性以及衍生品的综合构建对于降低保险公司破产风险的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Venture Capital Booms and Start-Up Financing 风险资本繁荣和创业融资
IF 3.2 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-11-01 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-financial-010621-115801
William H. Janeway, Ramana Nanda, Matthew Rhodes-Kropf
We review the growing literature on the relationship between venture capital (VC) booms and start-up financing, focusing on three broad areas. First, we discuss the drivers of large inflows into the VC asset class, particularly in recent years, which are related to but also distinct from macroeconomic business cycles and stock market fluctuations. Second, we review the emerging literature on the real effects of VC financing booms. A particular focus of this work is to highlight the potential impact that booms (and busts) can have on the types of firms that VC investors choose to fund and the terms at which they are funded, independent of investment opportunities—thereby shaping the trajectory of innovation being conducted by start-ups. Third, an important insight from recent research is that booms in VC financing are not just a temporal phenomenon but can also be seen in terms of the concentration of VC investment in certain industries and geographies. We also review the role of government policy, exploring the degree to which it can explain the concentration of VC funding in the United States over the past 40 years in just two broad areas—information and communication technologies and biotechnology. We conclude by highlighting promising areas of further research.
我们回顾了越来越多的关于风险投资(VC)繁荣与创业融资之间关系的文献,重点关注三个广泛的领域。首先,我们讨论了大量流入风险投资资产类别的驱动因素,特别是近年来,这与宏观经济商业周期和股市波动有关,但也不同。其次,我们回顾了关于风险投资融资繁荣的真实影响的新兴文献。这项工作的一个特别重点是强调繁荣(和萧条)可能对风险投资投资者选择资助的公司类型和资助条件产生的潜在影响,而与投资机会无关,从而塑造初创企业进行创新的轨迹。第三,最近研究的一个重要见解是,风险投资融资的繁荣不仅仅是一种时间现象,还可以从风险投资集中在某些行业和地区的角度来看。我们还回顾了政府政策的作用,探讨了它在多大程度上可以解释过去40年美国风险投资资金集中在两个广泛的领域——信息和通信技术以及生物技术。最后,我们强调了有前景的进一步研究领域。
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引用次数: 6
The Rise of State-Owned Investors: Sovereign Wealth Funds and Public Pension Funds 国有投资者的崛起:主权财富基金和公共养老基金
IF 3.2 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-11-01 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-financial-110420-090352
William L. Megginson,Diego Lopez,Asif I. Malik
State-owned investors (SOIs), including sovereign wealth funds and public pension funds, have $27 trillion in assets under management in 2020, making these funds the third largest group of asset owners globally. SOIs have become the largest and are among the most important private equity investors, and they are key investors in other alternative asset investments such as real estate, infrastructure, and hedge funds. SOIs are also leaders in promoting environmental, social, and governance policies and corporate social responsibility policies in investee companies. We document the rise of SOIs, assess their current investment policies, and describe how their state ownership both constrains and enhances their investment opportunity sets. We survey the most impactful recent academic research on sovereign wealth funds, public pension funds, and their closest financial analogs, private pension funds. We also introduce a new Governance-Sustainability-Resilience Scoreboard for SOIs and survey research examining their role in promoting good corporate governance.
2020年,包括主权财富基金和公共养老基金在内的国有投资者(SOIs)管理着27万亿美元的资产,使这些基金成为全球第三大资产所有者群体。国有企业已成为规模最大、最重要的私募股权投资者之一,它们也是房地产、基础设施和对冲基金等其他另类资产投资的关键投资者。在被投资企业中,国有企业也是推动环境、社会和治理政策以及企业社会责任政策的领导者。我们记录了国有企业的崛起,评估了它们当前的投资政策,并描述了它们的国有所有权如何既限制又增加了它们的投资机会集。我们调查了最近最具影响力的关于主权财富基金、公共养老基金以及与之最接近的金融类似物——私人养老基金的学术研究。我们还为国有企业引入了新的治理-可持续性-弹性计分板,并进行了调查研究,以检验它们在促进良好公司治理方面的作用。
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引用次数: 0
The Rise of Digital Money 数字货币的兴起
IF 3.2 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-11-01 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-financial-101620-063859
Tobias Adrian,Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli
Payment systems around the world are evolving with the emergence of digital money issued by private firms and central banks. We provide a conceptual framework to compare and contrast traditional forms of money with their new digital equivalents. We suggest that some forms of digital money, while less stable as a store of value, could be rapidly adopted given their advantages as a means of payment. We review the benefits and risks that would emerge. One approach to managing risks would be to require full backing of selected digital money with central bank reserves. We call the arrangement synthetic central bank digital currency (sCBDC), a private-public partnership that combines the advantages of private sector innovation and customer orientation with the safety and stability of central bank–backed money. We offer policy considerations, directions for research, and an overview of the literature to date. The analysis of digital currencies is an exciting new field crossing into monetary and financial economics that will reshape the monetary and financial systems for many years to come.
随着私人公司和中央银行发行的数字货币的出现,世界各地的支付系统正在不断发展。我们提供了一个概念框架来比较和对比传统形式的货币与新的数字等价物。我们认为,某些形式的数字货币虽然作为价值储存不太稳定,但鉴于其作为支付手段的优势,可以迅速采用。我们审查可能出现的利益和风险。管理风险的一种方法是,要求央行储备全面支持选定的数字货币。我们将这种安排称为合成央行数字货币(sCBDC),这是一种公私合作伙伴关系,将私营部门创新和以客户为导向的优势与央行支持的货币的安全性和稳定性相结合。我们提供政策考虑,研究方向,并概述了迄今为止的文献。对数字货币的分析是一个令人兴奋的新领域,跨越了货币和金融经济学,将在未来许多年重塑货币和金融体系。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Annual Review of Financial Economics
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