Pub Date : 2021-11-01DOI: 10.1146/annurev-financial-101620-063859
Tobias Adrian,Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli
Payment systems around the world are evolving with the emergence of digital money issued by private firms and central banks. We provide a conceptual framework to compare and contrast traditional forms of money with their new digital equivalents. We suggest that some forms of digital money, while less stable as a store of value, could be rapidly adopted given their advantages as a means of payment. We review the benefits and risks that would emerge. One approach to managing risks would be to require full backing of selected digital money with central bank reserves. We call the arrangement synthetic central bank digital currency (sCBDC), a private-public partnership that combines the advantages of private sector innovation and customer orientation with the safety and stability of central bank–backed money. We offer policy considerations, directions for research, and an overview of the literature to date. The analysis of digital currencies is an exciting new field crossing into monetary and financial economics that will reshape the monetary and financial systems for many years to come.
{"title":"The Rise of Digital Money","authors":"Tobias Adrian,Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli","doi":"10.1146/annurev-financial-101620-063859","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-financial-101620-063859","url":null,"abstract":"Payment systems around the world are evolving with the emergence of digital money issued by private firms and central banks. We provide a conceptual framework to compare and contrast traditional forms of money with their new digital equivalents. We suggest that some forms of digital money, while less stable as a store of value, could be rapidly adopted given their advantages as a means of payment. We review the benefits and risks that would emerge. One approach to managing risks would be to require full backing of selected digital money with central bank reserves. We call the arrangement synthetic central bank digital currency (sCBDC), a private-public partnership that combines the advantages of private sector innovation and customer orientation with the safety and stability of central bank–backed money. We offer policy considerations, directions for research, and an overview of the literature to date. The analysis of digital currencies is an exciting new field crossing into monetary and financial economics that will reshape the monetary and financial systems for many years to come.","PeriodicalId":47162,"journal":{"name":"Annual Review of Financial Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2021-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138520463","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-11-01DOI: 10.1146/annurev-financial-110217-022851
Franklin Allen,Ansgar Walther
This article studies the links between financial stability and the architecture of financial systems. We review the existing literature and provide organizing frameworks for analyzing three empirically important aspects of financial architecture: the rise of nonbank financial intermediaries, the regulatory response to these structural changes, and the emergence of complex interbank networks. One of our main new results is a necessary and sufficient condition for whether nonbank intermediaries are immune to runs in an extended version of the Diamond–Dybvig model.
{"title":"Financial Architecture and Financial Stability","authors":"Franklin Allen,Ansgar Walther","doi":"10.1146/annurev-financial-110217-022851","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-financial-110217-022851","url":null,"abstract":"This article studies the links between financial stability and the architecture of financial systems. We review the existing literature and provide organizing frameworks for analyzing three empirically important aspects of financial architecture: the rise of nonbank financial intermediaries, the regulatory response to these structural changes, and the emergence of complex interbank networks. One of our main new results is a necessary and sufficient condition for whether nonbank intermediaries are immune to runs in an extended version of the Diamond–Dybvig model.","PeriodicalId":47162,"journal":{"name":"Annual Review of Financial Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2021-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138520475","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Markets for consumer financial services are growing rapidly in low- and middle-income countries and are being transformed by digital technologies and platforms. With growth and change come concerns about protecting consumers from firm exploitation due to imperfect information and contracting as well as from their own decision-making limitations. We seek to bridge regulator and academic perspectives on these underlying sources of harm and five potential problems that can result: high and hidden prices, overindebtedness, postcontract exploitation, fraud, and discrimination. These potential problems span product markets old and new and could impact micro- and macroeconomies alike. Yet there is little consensus on how to define, diagnose, or treat such problems. Evidence-based consumer financial protection will require substantial advances in theory and especially empirics, and we outline key areas for future research.
{"title":"Consumer Protection for Financial Inclusion in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: Bridging Regulator and Academic Perspectives","authors":"Seth Garz,Xavier Giné,Dean Karlan,Rafe Mazer,Caitlin Sanford,Jonathan Zinman","doi":"10.1146/annurev-financial-071020-012008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-financial-071020-012008","url":null,"abstract":"Markets for consumer financial services are growing rapidly in low- and middle-income countries and are being transformed by digital technologies and platforms. With growth and change come concerns about protecting consumers from firm exploitation due to imperfect information and contracting as well as from their own decision-making limitations. We seek to bridge regulator and academic perspectives on these underlying sources of harm and five potential problems that can result: high and hidden prices, overindebtedness, postcontract exploitation, fraud, and discrimination. These potential problems span product markets old and new and could impact micro- and macroeconomies alike. Yet there is little consensus on how to define, diagnose, or treat such problems. Evidence-based consumer financial protection will require substantial advances in theory and especially empirics, and we outline key areas for future research.","PeriodicalId":47162,"journal":{"name":"Annual Review of Financial Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2021-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138542408","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-11-01DOI: 10.1146/annurev-financial-111320-102646
Florian Heider,Farzad Saidi,Glenn Schepens
In this article, we review the nascent literature on the transmission of negative policy rates. We discuss the theory of how the transmission depends on bank balance sheets, and how this changes once policy rates become negative. We review the growing evidence that negative policy rates are special because the pass-through to banks’ retail deposit rates is hindered by a zero lower bound. We summarize existing research on the impact of negative rates on banks’ lending and securities portfolios as well as their consequences for the real economy. Finally, we discuss the role of different initial conditions when the policy rate becomes negative, and potential interactions between negative policy rates and other unconventional monetary policies.
{"title":"Banks and Negative Interest Rates","authors":"Florian Heider,Farzad Saidi,Glenn Schepens","doi":"10.1146/annurev-financial-111320-102646","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-financial-111320-102646","url":null,"abstract":"In this article, we review the nascent literature on the transmission of negative policy rates. We discuss the theory of how the transmission depends on bank balance sheets, and how this changes once policy rates become negative. We review the growing evidence that negative policy rates are special because the pass-through to banks’ retail deposit rates is hindered by a zero lower bound. We summarize existing research on the impact of negative rates on banks’ lending and securities portfolios as well as their consequences for the real economy. Finally, we discuss the role of different initial conditions when the policy rate becomes negative, and potential interactions between negative policy rates and other unconventional monetary policies.","PeriodicalId":47162,"journal":{"name":"Annual Review of Financial Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2021-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138520464","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-07-20DOI: 10.1146/ANNUREV-FINANCIAL-110118-123129
Jing-Zhi Huang, Zhan Shi
Recently, there has been a fast-growing literature on the determinants of corporate bond returns, in particular, the driving force of cross-sectional return variation. In this review, we first survey recent empirical studies on this important topic. We discuss cross-sectional evidence as well as time-series evidence. We then present a model-based analysis of individual corporate bond returns using the structural approach for credit risk modeling. We show, among other things, that the expected corporate bond return implied by the Merton model predicts 1-month-ahead corporate bond returns in the cross section. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Financial Economics, Volume 13 is November 2021. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
{"title":"What Do We Know About Corporate Bond Returns?","authors":"Jing-Zhi Huang, Zhan Shi","doi":"10.1146/ANNUREV-FINANCIAL-110118-123129","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1146/ANNUREV-FINANCIAL-110118-123129","url":null,"abstract":"Recently, there has been a fast-growing literature on the determinants of corporate bond returns, in particular, the driving force of cross-sectional return variation. In this review, we first survey recent empirical studies on this important topic. We discuss cross-sectional evidence as well as time-series evidence. We then present a model-based analysis of individual corporate bond returns using the structural approach for credit risk modeling. We show, among other things, that the expected corporate bond return implied by the Merton model predicts 1-month-ahead corporate bond returns in the cross section. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Financial Economics, Volume 13 is November 2021. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.","PeriodicalId":47162,"journal":{"name":"Annual Review of Financial Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2021-07-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45631492","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-11-01DOI: 10.1146/annurev-financial-032820-083433
Jie He, X. Tian
Technological innovation is critical to a country's economic development and a firm's long-term success. This article reviews the recent literature that links institutions and innovation. Specifically, we focus on five aspects of the linkage. First, we discuss the literature that explores how the culture of a society or a corporation influences the process, features, and outcomes of innovation activities. Second, we review papers that focus on the role of demographic characteristics in innovation. Third, we describe studies examining the relation between market development and firms’ incentives as well as their ability to engage in innovative investments. Fourth, we discuss the literature on how innovation is shaped by a nation's laws and policies. Finally, we review the academic papers regarding the effects of government regulations and policies on innovation activities. Overall, this article aims to provide a synthetic and evaluative review of recent academic research that links various aspects of institutions and innovation. We also provide our views on potential directions for future research in this area.
{"title":"Institutions and Innovation","authors":"Jie He, X. Tian","doi":"10.1146/annurev-financial-032820-083433","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-financial-032820-083433","url":null,"abstract":"Technological innovation is critical to a country's economic development and a firm's long-term success. This article reviews the recent literature that links institutions and innovation. Specifically, we focus on five aspects of the linkage. First, we discuss the literature that explores how the culture of a society or a corporation influences the process, features, and outcomes of innovation activities. Second, we review papers that focus on the role of demographic characteristics in innovation. Third, we describe studies examining the relation between market development and firms’ incentives as well as their ability to engage in innovative investments. Fourth, we discuss the literature on how innovation is shaped by a nation's laws and policies. Finally, we review the academic papers regarding the effects of government regulations and policies on innovation activities. Overall, this article aims to provide a synthetic and evaluative review of recent academic research that links various aspects of institutions and innovation. We also provide our views on potential directions for future research in this area.","PeriodicalId":47162,"journal":{"name":"Annual Review of Financial Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1146/annurev-financial-032820-083433","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49322490","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-11-01DOI: 10.1146/annurev-financial-012820-012703
Michael T. Kiley
Real interest rates have been persistently below historical norms over the past decade, leading economists and policy makers to view the equilibrium real interest rate as likely to be low for some time. Various definitions and approaches to estimating the equilibrium real interest rate are examined, including approaches based on the term structure of interest rates and small macroeconomic models. The individual country approaches common in the literature are extended to allow for global trend and cyclical factors. The analysis finds that global factors dominate the downward trend in the equilibrium interest rate across 13 advanced economies. A corollary of this finding is that the U.S. equilibrium rate can be informed by global developments and is recently lower than estimated in U.S.-only studies. The analysis also highlights how the common global trend confounds empirical assessments of the determinants of movements in the equilibrium rate and the need to better integrate term-structure and macroeconomic approaches.
{"title":"The Global Equilibrium Real Interest Rate: Concepts, Estimates, and Challenges","authors":"Michael T. Kiley","doi":"10.1146/annurev-financial-012820-012703","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-financial-012820-012703","url":null,"abstract":"Real interest rates have been persistently below historical norms over the past decade, leading economists and policy makers to view the equilibrium real interest rate as likely to be low for some time. Various definitions and approaches to estimating the equilibrium real interest rate are examined, including approaches based on the term structure of interest rates and small macroeconomic models. The individual country approaches common in the literature are extended to allow for global trend and cyclical factors. The analysis finds that global factors dominate the downward trend in the equilibrium interest rate across 13 advanced economies. A corollary of this finding is that the U.S. equilibrium rate can be informed by global developments and is recently lower than estimated in U.S.-only studies. The analysis also highlights how the common global trend confounds empirical assessments of the determinants of movements in the equilibrium rate and the need to better integrate term-structure and macroeconomic approaches.","PeriodicalId":47162,"journal":{"name":"Annual Review of Financial Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138520472","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-11-01DOI: 10.1146/annurev-financial-110118-123041
Tri Vi Dang,Gary Gorton,Bengt Holmström
Short-term debt that can serve as a medium of exchange is designed to be information insensitive. No one should be tempted to acquire private information to gain an informational advantage in trading that could destabilize the value of the debt. Short-term debt minimizes the incentive to acquire information among all securities of equal value backed by the same underlying asset. Moreover, backing short-term debt with debt (i.e., using debt as collateral) minimizes information sensitivity across all types of collateral with equal value. These features are consistent with financial crises occurring periodically. In the information view adopted here, a financial crisis can occur when the collateral backing the short-term debt is thought to have lost enough value to raise doubts among the traders that some may acquire private information. In a crisis, there is a shift from information-insensitive to information-sensitive debt.
{"title":"The Information View of Financial Crises","authors":"Tri Vi Dang,Gary Gorton,Bengt Holmström","doi":"10.1146/annurev-financial-110118-123041","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-financial-110118-123041","url":null,"abstract":"Short-term debt that can serve as a medium of exchange is designed to be information insensitive. No one should be tempted to acquire private information to gain an informational advantage in trading that could destabilize the value of the debt. Short-term debt minimizes the incentive to acquire information among all securities of equal value backed by the same underlying asset. Moreover, backing short-term debt with debt (i.e., using debt as collateral) minimizes information sensitivity across all types of collateral with equal value. These features are consistent with financial crises occurring periodically. In the information view adopted here, a financial crisis can occur when the collateral backing the short-term debt is thought to have lost enough value to raise doubts among the traders that some may acquire private information. In a crisis, there is a shift from information-insensitive to information-sensitive debt.","PeriodicalId":47162,"journal":{"name":"Annual Review of Financial Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138520470","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-11-01DOI: 10.1146/annurev-financial-012820-025928
Winston W. Dou,Andrew W. Lo,Ameya Muley,Harald Uhlig
We provide a critical review of macroeconomic models used for monetary policy at central banks from a finance perspective. We review the history of monetary policy modeling, survey the core monetary models used by major central banks, and construct an illustrative model for those readers who are unfamiliar with the literature. Within this framework, we highlight several important limitations of current models and methods, including the fact that local-linearization approximations omit important nonlinear dynamics, yielding biased impulse-response analysis and parameter estimates. We also propose new features for the next generation of macrofinancial policy models, including a substantial role for the financial sector, the government balance sheet, and unconventional monetary policies; heterogeneity, reallocation, and redistribution effects;the macroeconomic impact of large nonlinear risk premium dynamics; time-varying uncertainty; financial sector and systemic risks; imperfect product market and markups; and further advances in solution, estimation, and evaluation methods for dynamic quantitative structural models.
{"title":"Macroeconomic Models for Monetary Policy: A Critical Review from a Finance Perspective","authors":"Winston W. Dou,Andrew W. Lo,Ameya Muley,Harald Uhlig","doi":"10.1146/annurev-financial-012820-025928","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-financial-012820-025928","url":null,"abstract":"We provide a critical review of macroeconomic models used for monetary policy at central banks from a finance perspective. We review the history of monetary policy modeling, survey the core monetary models used by major central banks, and construct an illustrative model for those readers who are unfamiliar with the literature. Within this framework, we highlight several important limitations of current models and methods, including the fact that local-linearization approximations omit important nonlinear dynamics, yielding biased impulse-response analysis and parameter estimates. We also propose new features for the next generation of macrofinancial policy models, including a substantial role for the financial sector, the government balance sheet, and unconventional monetary policies; heterogeneity, reallocation, and redistribution effects;the macroeconomic impact of large nonlinear risk premium dynamics; time-varying uncertainty; financial sector and systemic risks; imperfect product market and markups; and further advances in solution, estimation, and evaluation methods for dynamic quantitative structural models.","PeriodicalId":47162,"journal":{"name":"Annual Review of Financial Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138520467","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-11-01DOI: 10.1146/annurev-financial-100520-074656
Zvi Bodie
Starting with his 1970 doctoral dissertation and continuing to today, Robert C. Merton has revolutionized the theory and practice of finance. In 1997, Merton shared a Nobel Prize in Economics “for a new method to determine the value of derivatives.” His contributions to the science of finance, however, go far beyond that. In this article I describe Merton's main contributions. They include the following: 1. The introduction of continuous-time stochastic models (the Ito calculus) to the theory of household consumption and investment decisions. Merton's technique of dynamic hedging in continuous time provided a bridge between the theoretical complete-markets equilibrium model of Kenneth Arrow and the real world of personal financial planning and management. 2. The derivation of the multifactor Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM). The ICAPM generalizes the single-factor CAPM and explains why that model might fail to properly account for observed market excess returns. It also provides a theory to identify potential forward-looking risk premia for use in factor-based investment strategies. It is therefore both a positive and normative theory. 3. The invention of Contingent Claims Analysis (CCA) as a generalization of option pricing theory. CCA applies the technique of dynamic replication to the valuation and risk management of a wide range of corporate and government liabilities. Merton's CCA model for the valuation and analysis of risky debt is known among scholars and practitioners alike as the Merton Model. 4. The development of financial engineering, which employs CCA to design and produce new financial products. Merton was the first to apply CCA to analyze government guaranty programs such as deposit insurance, and to suggest improvements in the way those programs are managed. He and his students have applied his insights at both the micro and macro policy levels. 5. And finally, the development of a theory of financial intermediation that explains and predicts how financial systems differ across countries and change over time. Merton has applied that theory, called functional and structural finance, to guide the design and regulation of financial systems at the levels of the firm, the industry, and the nation. He has also used it to propose reforms in pensions, sovereign wealth funds, and macrostabilization policy. This article is one of a pair of articles published in this volume about Robert C. Merton's contributions to the science of financial economics. This article was originally published in Volume 11 of the Annual Review of Financial Economics. The other article in this pair is “ Robert C. Merton: The First Financial Engineer ” by Andrew W. Lo.
从1970年的博士论文开始，一直持续到今天，罗伯特·默顿(Robert C. Merton)彻底改变了金融理论和实践。1997年，默顿因“确定衍生品价值的新方法”而获得诺贝尔经济学奖。然而，他对金融科学的贡献远不止于此。在本文中，我将描述默顿的主要贡献。它们包括以下内容:将连续时间随机模型(伊藤演算)引入家庭消费和投资决策理论。默顿的连续时间动态套期保值技术在肯尼斯·阿罗的理论完全市场均衡模型和个人财务规划和管理的现实世界之间架起了一座桥梁。2.多因素跨期资本资产定价模型(ICAPM)的推导。ICAPM概括了单因素CAPM，并解释了为什么该模型可能无法正确地解释观察到的市场超额回报。它还为基于要素的投资策略提供了一种识别潜在前瞻性风险溢价的理论。因此，它既是一种实证理论，也是一种规范理论。3.作为期权定价理论推广的或有权利分析(CCA)的发明。CCA将动态复制技术应用于各种公司和政府负债的估值和风险管理。默顿对风险债务进行估值和分析的CCA模型被学者和实践者们称为默顿模型。金融工程的发展，利用CCA来设计和生产新的金融产品。默顿是第一个将CCA应用于分析存款保险等政府担保项目，并建议改进这些项目的管理方式的人。他和他的学生将他的见解应用于微观和宏观政策层面。5.最后，金融中介理论的发展，解释和预测金融体系在不同国家之间的差异和随时间的变化。默顿运用了这一理论，即所谓的功能性和结构性金融，来指导企业、行业和国家层面的金融体系设计和监管。他还利用这个机会提出了养老金、主权财富基金和宏观稳定政策的改革。本文是本丛书中关于罗伯特•默顿(Robert C. Merton)对金融经济学的贡献的两篇文章之一。本文最初发表于《金融经济学年度评论》第11卷。这一对中的另一篇文章是Andrew W. Lo的《Robert C. Merton:第一位金融工程师》。
{"title":"Robert C. Merton and the Science of Finance","authors":"Zvi Bodie","doi":"10.1146/annurev-financial-100520-074656","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-financial-100520-074656","url":null,"abstract":"Starting with his 1970 doctoral dissertation and continuing to today, Robert C. Merton has revolutionized the theory and practice of finance. In 1997, Merton shared a Nobel Prize in Economics “for a new method to determine the value of derivatives.” His contributions to the science of finance, however, go far beyond that. In this article I describe Merton's main contributions. They include the following: 1. The introduction of continuous-time stochastic models (the Ito calculus) to the theory of household consumption and investment decisions. Merton's technique of dynamic hedging in continuous time provided a bridge between the theoretical complete-markets equilibrium model of Kenneth Arrow and the real world of personal financial planning and management. 2. The derivation of the multifactor Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM). The ICAPM generalizes the single-factor CAPM and explains why that model might fail to properly account for observed market excess returns. It also provides a theory to identify potential forward-looking risk premia for use in factor-based investment strategies. It is therefore both a positive and normative theory. 3. The invention of Contingent Claims Analysis (CCA) as a generalization of option pricing theory. CCA applies the technique of dynamic replication to the valuation and risk management of a wide range of corporate and government liabilities. Merton's CCA model for the valuation and analysis of risky debt is known among scholars and practitioners alike as the Merton Model. 4. The development of financial engineering, which employs CCA to design and produce new financial products. Merton was the first to apply CCA to analyze government guaranty programs such as deposit insurance, and to suggest improvements in the way those programs are managed. He and his students have applied his insights at both the micro and macro policy levels. 5. And finally, the development of a theory of financial intermediation that explains and predicts how financial systems differ across countries and change over time. Merton has applied that theory, called functional and structural finance, to guide the design and regulation of financial systems at the levels of the firm, the industry, and the nation. He has also used it to propose reforms in pensions, sovereign wealth funds, and macrostabilization policy. This article is one of a pair of articles published in this volume about Robert C. Merton's contributions to the science of financial economics. This article was originally published in Volume 11 of the Annual Review of Financial Economics. The other article in this pair is “ Robert C. Merton: The First Financial Engineer ” by Andrew W. Lo.","PeriodicalId":47162,"journal":{"name":"Annual Review of Financial Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138520471","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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