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Financial Architecture and Financial Stability 金融架构与金融稳定
IF 3.2 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-11-01 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-financial-110217-022851
Franklin Allen,Ansgar Walther
This article studies the links between financial stability and the architecture of financial systems. We review the existing literature and provide organizing frameworks for analyzing three empirically important aspects of financial architecture: the rise of nonbank financial intermediaries, the regulatory response to these structural changes, and the emergence of complex interbank networks. One of our main new results is a necessary and sufficient condition for whether nonbank intermediaries are immune to runs in an extended version of the Diamond–Dybvig model.
本文研究了金融稳定与金融体系结构之间的联系。我们回顾了现有的文献,并提供了组织框架来分析金融架构的三个经验重要方面:非银行金融中介机构的兴起,对这些结构变化的监管反应,以及复杂银行间网络的出现。我们的主要新结果之一是在Diamond-Dybvig模型的扩展版本中,非银行中介机构是否对挤兑免疫的充分必要条件。
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引用次数: 0
Banks and Negative Interest Rates 银行和负利率
IF 3.2 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-11-01 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-financial-111320-102646
Florian Heider,Farzad Saidi,Glenn Schepens
In this article, we review the nascent literature on the transmission of negative policy rates. We discuss the theory of how the transmission depends on bank balance sheets, and how this changes once policy rates become negative. We review the growing evidence that negative policy rates are special because the pass-through to banks’ retail deposit rates is hindered by a zero lower bound. We summarize existing research on the impact of negative rates on banks’ lending and securities portfolios as well as their consequences for the real economy. Finally, we discuss the role of different initial conditions when the policy rate becomes negative, and potential interactions between negative policy rates and other unconventional monetary policies.
在本文中,我们回顾了负政策利率传导的新兴文献。我们讨论了传导如何依赖于银行资产负债表的理论,以及一旦政策利率变为负值,这种情况将如何变化。我们回顾了越来越多的证据,表明负政策利率是特殊的,因为对银行零售存款利率的传导受到了零下限的阻碍。我们总结了关于负利率对银行贷款和证券投资组合的影响以及它们对实体经济的影响的现有研究。最后,我们讨论了政策利率为负时不同初始条件的作用,以及负政策利率与其他非常规货币政策之间的潜在相互作用。
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引用次数: 0
Consumer Protection for Financial Inclusion in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: Bridging Regulator and Academic Perspectives 中低收入国家普惠金融的消费者保护:衔接监管和学术视角
IF 3.2 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-11-01 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-financial-071020-012008
Seth Garz,Xavier Giné,Dean Karlan,Rafe Mazer,Caitlin Sanford,Jonathan Zinman
Markets for consumer financial services are growing rapidly in low- and middle-income countries and are being transformed by digital technologies and platforms. With growth and change come concerns about protecting consumers from firm exploitation due to imperfect information and contracting as well as from their own decision-making limitations. We seek to bridge regulator and academic perspectives on these underlying sources of harm and five potential problems that can result: high and hidden prices, overindebtedness, postcontract exploitation, fraud, and discrimination. These potential problems span product markets old and new and could impact micro- and macroeconomies alike. Yet there is little consensus on how to define, diagnose, or treat such problems. Evidence-based consumer financial protection will require substantial advances in theory and especially empirics, and we outline key areas for future research.
在低收入和中等收入国家,消费金融服务市场正在迅速增长,并正在被数字技术和平台所改变。随着增长和变化,人们开始关注如何保护消费者不受信息不完善和契约不完善的企业剥削,以及消费者自身的决策限制。我们试图就这些潜在的危害来源和可能导致的五个潜在问题架起监管机构和学术观点的桥梁:高价格和隐藏价格、过度负债、合同后剥削、欺诈和歧视。这些潜在的问题跨越新旧产品市场,可能同时影响微观和宏观经济。然而,在如何定义、诊断或治疗这些问题上,几乎没有达成共识。基于证据的消费者金融保护将需要在理论,特别是经验方面取得实质性进展,我们概述了未来研究的关键领域。
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引用次数: 0
What Do We Know About Corporate Bond Returns? 我们对公司债券回报了解多少?
IF 3.2 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-07-20 DOI: 10.1146/ANNUREV-FINANCIAL-110118-123129
Jing-Zhi Huang, Zhan Shi
Recently, there has been a fast-growing literature on the determinants of corporate bond returns, in particular, the driving force of cross-sectional return variation. In this review, we first survey recent empirical studies on this important topic. We discuss cross-sectional evidence as well as time-series evidence. We then present a model-based analysis of individual corporate bond returns using the structural approach for credit risk modeling. We show, among other things, that the expected corporate bond return implied by the Merton model predicts 1-month-ahead corporate bond returns in the cross section. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Financial Economics, Volume 13 is November 2021. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
最近,关于公司债券回报的决定因素,特别是横截面回报变化的驱动力的文献越来越多。在这篇综述中,我们首先调查了最近关于这一重要主题的实证研究。我们讨论了横截面证据和时间序列证据。然后,我们使用信用风险建模的结构方法,对单个公司债券收益率进行了基于模型的分析。除其他外,我们还表明,默顿模型所隐含的预期公司债券回报率在横截面中预测了1个月的公司债券回报。《金融经济学年度评论》第13卷预计最终在线出版日期为2021年11月。请参阅http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates用于修订估算。
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引用次数: 8
Institutions and Innovation 制度与创新
IF 3.2 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-financial-032820-083433
Jie He, X. Tian
Technological innovation is critical to a country's economic development and a firm's long-term success. This article reviews the recent literature that links institutions and innovation. Specifically, we focus on five aspects of the linkage. First, we discuss the literature that explores how the culture of a society or a corporation influences the process, features, and outcomes of innovation activities. Second, we review papers that focus on the role of demographic characteristics in innovation. Third, we describe studies examining the relation between market development and firms’ incentives as well as their ability to engage in innovative investments. Fourth, we discuss the literature on how innovation is shaped by a nation's laws and policies. Finally, we review the academic papers regarding the effects of government regulations and policies on innovation activities. Overall, this article aims to provide a synthetic and evaluative review of recent academic research that links various aspects of institutions and innovation. We also provide our views on potential directions for future research in this area.
技术创新对一个国家的经济发展和企业的长期成功至关重要。本文回顾了最近将制度与创新联系起来的文献。具体而言,我们重点关注五个方面的联系。首先,我们讨论了探索社会或企业文化如何影响创新活动的过程、特征和结果的文献。其次,我们回顾了关注人口特征在创新中的作用的论文。第三,我们描述了研究市场发展与企业激励以及创新投资能力之间的关系。第四,我们讨论了一个国家的法律和政策如何塑造创新的文献。最后,我们回顾了有关政府法规和政策对创新活动影响的学术论文。总的来说,本文旨在对最近的学术研究进行综合和评价性综述,这些研究将制度和创新的各个方面联系起来。我们还就这一领域未来研究的潜在方向发表了意见。
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引用次数: 23
The Global Equilibrium Real Interest Rate: Concepts, Estimates, and Challenges 全球均衡实际利率:概念、估计和挑战
IF 3.2 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-financial-012820-012703
Michael T. Kiley
Real interest rates have been persistently below historical norms over the past decade, leading economists and policy makers to view the equilibrium real interest rate as likely to be low for some time. Various definitions and approaches to estimating the equilibrium real interest rate are examined, including approaches based on the term structure of interest rates and small macroeconomic models. The individual country approaches common in the literature are extended to allow for global trend and cyclical factors. The analysis finds that global factors dominate the downward trend in the equilibrium interest rate across 13 advanced economies. A corollary of this finding is that the U.S. equilibrium rate can be informed by global developments and is recently lower than estimated in U.S.-only studies. The analysis also highlights how the common global trend confounds empirical assessments of the determinants of movements in the equilibrium rate and the need to better integrate term-structure and macroeconomic approaches.
过去10年,实际利率一直低于历史标准,导致经济学家和政策制定者认为,均衡实际利率可能在一段时间内处于低位。评估均衡实际利率的各种定义和方法进行了检查,包括基于利率期限结构和小型宏观经济模型的方法。文献中常见的个别国家方法得到扩展,以考虑全球趋势和周期性因素。分析发现,全球因素主导了13个发达经济体均衡利率的下行趋势。这一发现的一个推论是,美国的均衡利率可以受到全球发展的影响,并且最近低于仅美国研究的估计。分析还强调了共同的全球趋势如何混淆了对均衡利率变动决定因素的实证评估,以及更好地整合期限结构和宏观经济方法的必要性。
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引用次数: 0
The Information View of Financial Crises 金融危机的信息观
IF 3.2 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-financial-110118-123041
Tri Vi Dang,Gary Gorton,Bengt Holmström
Short-term debt that can serve as a medium of exchange is designed to be information insensitive. No one should be tempted to acquire private information to gain an informational advantage in trading that could destabilize the value of the debt. Short-term debt minimizes the incentive to acquire information among all securities of equal value backed by the same underlying asset. Moreover, backing short-term debt with debt (i.e., using debt as collateral) minimizes information sensitivity across all types of collateral with equal value. These features are consistent with financial crises occurring periodically. In the information view adopted here, a financial crisis can occur when the collateral backing the short-term debt is thought to have lost enough value to raise doubts among the traders that some may acquire private information. In a crisis, there is a shift from information-insensitive to information-sensitive debt.
可以作为交换媒介的短期债务被设计成对信息不敏感。任何人都不应被引诱去获取私人信息,以便在可能破坏债务价值稳定的交易中获得信息优势。短期债务将获取同一基础资产支持的所有同等价值证券之间信息的动机降至最低。此外,以债务支持短期债务(即,使用债务作为抵押品)将所有类型的同等价值抵押品的信息敏感性降至最低。这些特征与周期性发生的金融危机是一致的。在这里采用的信息观点中,当支持短期债务的抵押品被认为已经失去了足够的价值,从而引起交易者怀疑一些人可能会获得私人信息时,金融危机就会发生。在危机中,债务从信息不敏感转变为信息敏感。
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引用次数: 0
Macroeconomic Models for Monetary Policy: A Critical Review from a Finance Perspective 货币政策的宏观经济模型:从金融学角度的批判性回顾
IF 3.2 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-financial-012820-025928
Winston W. Dou,Andrew W. Lo,Ameya Muley,Harald Uhlig
We provide a critical review of macroeconomic models used for monetary policy at central banks from a finance perspective. We review the history of monetary policy modeling, survey the core monetary models used by major central banks, and construct an illustrative model for those readers who are unfamiliar with the literature. Within this framework, we highlight several important limitations of current models and methods, including the fact that local-linearization approximations omit important nonlinear dynamics, yielding biased impulse-response analysis and parameter estimates. We also propose new features for the next generation of macrofinancial policy models, including a substantial role for the financial sector, the government balance sheet, and unconventional monetary policies; heterogeneity, reallocation, and redistribution effects;the macroeconomic impact of large nonlinear risk premium dynamics; time-varying uncertainty; financial sector and systemic risks; imperfect product market and markups; and further advances in solution, estimation, and evaluation methods for dynamic quantitative structural models.
我们从金融角度对中央银行用于货币政策的宏观经济模型进行了批判性的回顾。我们回顾了货币政策建模的历史,调查了主要央行使用的核心货币模型,并为那些不熟悉文献的读者构建了一个说明性模型。在这个框架内,我们强调了当前模型和方法的几个重要局限性,包括局部线性化近似忽略了重要的非线性动力学,从而产生有偏差的脉冲响应分析和参数估计。我们还提出了下一代宏观金融政策模型的新特征,包括金融部门、政府资产负债表和非常规货币政策的重要作用;异质性、再分配和再分配效应;大型非线性风险溢价动态的宏观经济影响;时变不确定性;金融部门和系统性风险;产品市场和加价不完善;以及动态定量结构模型的求解、估计和评价方法的进一步进展。
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引用次数: 0
Robert C. Merton and the Science of Finance 罗伯特·默顿和金融科学
IF 3.2 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-financial-100520-074656
Zvi Bodie
Starting with his 1970 doctoral dissertation and continuing to today, Robert C. Merton has revolutionized the theory and practice of finance. In 1997, Merton shared a Nobel Prize in Economics “for a new method to determine the value of derivatives.” His contributions to the science of finance, however, go far beyond that. In this article I describe Merton's main contributions. They include the following: 1.  The introduction of continuous-time stochastic models (the Ito calculus) to the theory of household consumption and investment decisions. Merton's technique of dynamic hedging in continuous time provided a bridge between the theoretical complete-markets equilibrium model of Kenneth Arrow and the real world of personal financial planning and management. 2.  The derivation of the multifactor Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM). The ICAPM generalizes the single-factor CAPM and explains why that model might fail to properly account for observed market excess returns. It also provides a theory to identify potential forward-looking risk premia for use in factor-based investment strategies. It is therefore both a positive and normative theory. 3.  The invention of Contingent Claims Analysis (CCA) as a generalization of option pricing theory. CCA applies the technique of dynamic replication to the valuation and risk management of a wide range of corporate and government liabilities. Merton's CCA model for the valuation and analysis of risky debt is known among scholars and practitioners alike as the Merton Model. 4.  The development of financial engineering, which employs CCA to design and produce new financial products. Merton was the first to apply CCA to analyze government guaranty programs such as deposit insurance, and to suggest improvements in the way those programs are managed. He and his students have applied his insights at both the micro and macro policy levels. 5.  And finally, the development of a theory of financial intermediation that explains and predicts how financial systems differ across countries and change over time. Merton has applied that theory, called functional and structural finance, to guide the design and regulation of financial systems at the levels of the firm, the industry, and the nation. He has also used it to propose reforms in pensions, sovereign wealth funds, and macrostabilization policy. This article is one of a pair of articles published in this volume about Robert C. Merton's contributions to the science of financial economics. This article was originally published in Volume 11 of the Annual Review of Financial Economics. The other article in this pair is “ Robert C. Merton: The First Financial Engineer ” by Andrew W. Lo.
从1970年的博士论文开始,一直持续到今天,罗伯特·默顿(Robert C. Merton)彻底改变了金融理论和实践。1997年,默顿因“确定衍生品价值的新方法”而获得诺贝尔经济学奖。然而,他对金融科学的贡献远不止于此。在本文中,我将描述默顿的主要贡献。它们包括以下内容:将连续时间随机模型(伊藤演算)引入家庭消费和投资决策理论。默顿的连续时间动态套期保值技术在肯尼斯·阿罗的理论完全市场均衡模型和个人财务规划和管理的现实世界之间架起了一座桥梁。2.多因素跨期资本资产定价模型(ICAPM)的推导。ICAPM概括了单因素CAPM,并解释了为什么该模型可能无法正确地解释观察到的市场超额回报。它还为基于要素的投资策略提供了一种识别潜在前瞻性风险溢价的理论。因此,它既是一种实证理论,也是一种规范理论。3.作为期权定价理论推广的或有权利分析(CCA)的发明。CCA将动态复制技术应用于各种公司和政府负债的估值和风险管理。默顿对风险债务进行估值和分析的CCA模型被学者和实践者们称为默顿模型。金融工程的发展,利用CCA来设计和生产新的金融产品。默顿是第一个将CCA应用于分析存款保险等政府担保项目,并建议改进这些项目的管理方式的人。他和他的学生将他的见解应用于微观和宏观政策层面。5.最后,金融中介理论的发展,解释和预测金融体系在不同国家之间的差异和随时间的变化。默顿运用了这一理论,即所谓的功能性和结构性金融,来指导企业、行业和国家层面的金融体系设计和监管。他还利用这个机会提出了养老金、主权财富基金和宏观稳定政策的改革。本文是本丛书中关于罗伯特•默顿(Robert C. Merton)对金融经济学的贡献的两篇文章之一。本文最初发表于《金融经济学年度评论》第11卷。这一对中的另一篇文章是Andrew W. Lo的《Robert C. Merton:第一位金融工程师》。
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引用次数: 0
Recent Developments in Factor Models and Applications in Econometric Learning 因子模型及其在计量经济学学习中的应用研究进展
IF 3.2 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2020-09-21 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-financial-091420-011735
Jianqing Fan, Kunpeng Li, Yuan Liao
This article provides a selective overview of the recent developments in factor models and their applications in econometric learning. We focus on the perspective of the low-rank structure of factor models and particularly draw attention to estimating the model from the low-rank recovery point of view. Our survey mainly consists of three parts. The first part is a review of new factor estimations based on modern techniques for recovering low-rank structures of high-dimensional models. The second part discusses statistical inferences of several factor-augmented models and their applications in statistical learning models. The final part summarizes new developments dealing with unbalanced panels from the matrix completion perspective.
本文选择性地概述了因子模型的最新发展及其在计量经济学学习中的应用。我们专注于因子模型的低秩结构的角度,并特别注意从低秩恢复的角度估计模型。我们的调查主要包括三个部分。第一部分综述了基于现代技术的新因子估计,用于恢复高维模型的低秩结构。第二部分讨论了几种因子增广模型的统计推断及其在统计学习模型中的应用。最后一部分从矩阵完成的角度总结了处理不平衡面板的新进展。
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引用次数: 8
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Annual Review of Financial Economics
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