We examine the empirical relationship between output variability and output growth for Britain using data for eight centuries covering the 1270 to 2014 period. Drawing on the economic history literature, we split the full sample period in four subperiods and use GARCH models to measure output growth uncertainty and estimate its e ect on average growth. Within each sub-sample we allow output growth to depend on the state of the system, e.g. 2-regime switching model would switch between high-growth and low-growth regimes. We find that the e ect of uncertainty on growth di ers depending on the existing growth regime. Low-growth regimes are associated with a negative e ect of uncertainty on growth, and medium or high-growth regimes are associated with a positive e ect. These findings are consistent across the four states of economic development. Our results indicate why the empirical literature to date has found mixed results when examining the e ect of uncertainty on growth.
{"title":"Is British output growth related to its uncertainty? Evidence using eight centuries of data","authors":"Don Bredin, Stilianos Fountas, Christos S. Savva","doi":"10.1111/SJPE.12270","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/SJPE.12270","url":null,"abstract":"We examine the empirical relationship between output variability and output growth for Britain using data for eight centuries covering the 1270 to 2014 period. Drawing on the economic history literature, we split the full sample period in four subperiods and use GARCH models to measure output growth uncertainty and estimate its e ect on average growth. Within each sub-sample we allow output growth to depend on the state of the system, e.g. 2-regime switching model would switch between high-growth and low-growth regimes. We find that the e ect of uncertainty on growth di ers depending on the existing growth regime. Low-growth regimes are associated with a negative e ect of uncertainty on growth, and medium or high-growth regimes are associated with a positive e ect. These findings are consistent across the four states of economic development. Our results indicate why the empirical literature to date has found mixed results when examining the e ect of uncertainty on growth.","PeriodicalId":47171,"journal":{"name":"Scottish Journal of Political Economy","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/SJPE.12270","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48998159","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper examines whether central bank communication stabilises euro area inflation expectations through the information and news channel. A novelty of the study is its use of data from Google Analytics on ECB website traffic as proxy for visitors’ attention to its communication. We conduct several econometric tests with daily data to measure the impact of ECB communication on the information demand of the public and ultimately on inflation expectations. Overall, this study shows that website attention, as captured by search volumes of visitors, influences euro area inflation expectations. We find that increased website attention contributes to narrowing the gap between market-based forecasts and (the mean of) longer-term professional inflation expectations. Our findings add to the theoretical evidence on the existence of an information and news channel. JEL Codes : C20
{"title":"Can central bank communication help to stabilise inflation expectations?","authors":"Alexander Jung, P. Kuehl","doi":"10.1111/SJPE.12276","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/SJPE.12276","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines whether central bank communication stabilises euro area inflation expectations through the information and news channel. A novelty of the study is its use of data from Google Analytics on ECB website traffic as proxy for visitors’ attention to its communication. We conduct several econometric tests with daily data to measure the impact of ECB communication on the information demand of the public and ultimately on inflation expectations. Overall, this study shows that website attention, as captured by search volumes of visitors, influences euro area inflation expectations. We find that increased website attention contributes to narrowing the gap between market-based forecasts and (the mean of) longer-term professional inflation expectations. Our findings add to the theoretical evidence on the existence of an information and news channel. JEL Codes : C20","PeriodicalId":47171,"journal":{"name":"Scottish Journal of Political Economy","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/SJPE.12276","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49590058","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper deals with the question of whether migrants in Germany pay a rent premium for apartments of comparable quality and neighborhood characteristics. We use a twostep selection-correction model augmented by a control function to account for nonrandom neighborhood choice. The estimation sample is a uniquely assembled panel comprising the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), information on household and apartment characteristics, as well as georeferenced data describing neighborhood quality. We find no evidence that having a migrant background is directly associated with higher rent. Migrants may nevertheless face higher rents by settling in neighborhoods populated by a high share of foreigners, which we find has a positive and statistically significant relationship with the rent.
{"title":"Rental prices in Germany: A comparison between migrants and natives","authors":"Lea Eilers, A. Paloyo, Colin Vance","doi":"10.4419/86788856","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4419/86788856","url":null,"abstract":"This paper deals with the question of whether migrants in Germany pay a rent premium for apartments of comparable quality and neighborhood characteristics. We use a twostep selection-correction model augmented by a control function to account for nonrandom neighborhood choice. The estimation sample is a uniquely assembled panel comprising the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), information on household and apartment characteristics, as well as georeferenced data describing neighborhood quality. We find no evidence that having a migrant background is directly associated with higher rent. Migrants may nevertheless face higher rents by settling in neighborhoods populated by a high share of foreigners, which we find has a positive and statistically significant relationship with the rent.","PeriodicalId":47171,"journal":{"name":"Scottish Journal of Political Economy","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-01-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44215653","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Issue Information","authors":"","doi":"10.1111/sjpe.12213","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/sjpe.12213","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47171,"journal":{"name":"Scottish Journal of Political Economy","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-01-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/sjpe.12213","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49667683","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Arab region: Development without democracy\u0000 a","authors":"Samir A. Makdisi","doi":"10.1111/sjpe.12269","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/sjpe.12269","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47171,"journal":{"name":"Scottish Journal of Political Economy","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2020-12-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/sjpe.12269","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43881501","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Despite the increasingly wide-spread nature of macroprudential regulations, relatively few studies have assessed the implications of such policies on key household finance decisions. In this paper, we investigate the impact on Irish household perceived savings constraints of macroprudential policy measures introduced by the Central Bank of Ireland in early 2015. These measures, which require larger downpayments than previously was the case, constitute a significant new source of uncertainty for those seeking to engage in homeownership. Using a unique, nationally representative survey of households' savings decisions we find that the measures have had a significant impact on the degree to which Irish households feel constrained in their savings decisions. Credit constraints and consumer inattention are proposed as explanatory channels for this development. Heterogeneous effects across households indicate younger, private renting households, and those with relatively uncertain cash flows show the largest increase in perceived constraints following the introduction of the policy. JEL classification: D14, G28
{"title":"Household savings constraints, uncertainty and macroprudential policy","authors":"P. Economides, K. McQuinn, C. O’Toole","doi":"10.1111/SJPE.12267","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/SJPE.12267","url":null,"abstract":"Despite the increasingly wide-spread nature of macroprudential regulations, relatively few studies have assessed the implications of such policies on key household finance decisions. In this paper, we investigate the impact on Irish household perceived savings constraints of macroprudential policy measures introduced by the Central Bank of Ireland in early 2015. These measures, which require larger downpayments than previously was the case, constitute a significant new source of uncertainty for those seeking to engage in homeownership. Using a unique, nationally representative survey of households' savings decisions we find that the measures have had a significant impact on the degree to which Irish households feel constrained in their savings decisions. Credit constraints and consumer inattention are proposed as explanatory channels for this development. Heterogeneous effects across households indicate younger, private renting households, and those with relatively uncertain cash flows show the largest increase in perceived constraints following the introduction of the policy. JEL classification: D14, G28","PeriodicalId":47171,"journal":{"name":"Scottish Journal of Political Economy","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2020-12-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/SJPE.12267","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44699865","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper presents a classification of the monetary policy frameworks (MPFs) of 19 MENA countries from 1974 to 2017. It identifies the key trends in the region, and contrasts them with the trends among three other groups: advanced countries, emerging countries and Latin American countries. It considers likely reasons for the MPF choices of MENA governments, and notes the economic performance associated in the region and elsewhere with different MPFs. It examines how these MPF choices relate to trends in central bank independence and transparency, and in democracy and governance. Finally it brings these elements together in an argument that a move to democracy in the MENA countries could open the way to monetary policy frameworks that would offer improved economic performance.
{"title":"Monetary policy frameworks in the Middle East and North Africa: How do they compare with other groupings?","authors":"D. Cobham","doi":"10.1111/sjpe.12266","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/sjpe.12266","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents a classification of the monetary policy frameworks (MPFs) of 19 MENA countries from 1974 to 2017. It identifies the key trends in the region, and contrasts them with the trends among three other groups: advanced countries, emerging countries and Latin American countries. It considers likely reasons for the MPF choices of MENA governments, and notes the economic performance associated in the region and elsewhere with different MPFs. It examines how these MPF choices relate to trends in central bank independence and transparency, and in democracy and governance. Finally it brings these elements together in an argument that a move to democracy in the MENA countries could open the way to monetary policy frameworks that would offer improved economic performance.","PeriodicalId":47171,"journal":{"name":"Scottish Journal of Political Economy","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2020-11-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/sjpe.12266","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48696836","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Issue Information","authors":"","doi":"10.1111/sjpe.12164","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/sjpe.12164","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47171,"journal":{"name":"Scottish Journal of Political Economy","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2020-10-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/sjpe.12164","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44432044","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Growth‐equity trade‐offs in structural reforms","authors":"J. Ostry, A. Berg, Siddharth Kothari","doi":"10.1111/SJPE.12265","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/SJPE.12265","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47171,"journal":{"name":"Scottish Journal of Political Economy","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2020-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/SJPE.12265","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42803173","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Capital reallocation: A tale of two frictions*","authors":"Wei Wang","doi":"10.1111/sjpe.12263","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/sjpe.12263","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47171,"journal":{"name":"Scottish Journal of Political Economy","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2020-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/sjpe.12263","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44336588","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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