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LingoTrip: Spatiotemporal context prompt driven large language model for individual trip prediction
IF 2 4区 工程技术 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubtr.2025.100117
Zhenlin Qin , Pengfei Zhang , Leizhen Wang , Zhenliang Ma
Large language models (LLMs) showed superior performance in many language-related tasks. It is promising to model the individual mobility prediction problem as a language model and use pretrained LLMs to predict the individual next trip information (e.g., time and location) for personalized travel recommendations. Theoretically, it is expected to overcome the common limitations of data-driven prediction models in zero/few shot learning, generalization, and interpretability. The paper proposes a LingoTrip model for predicting individual next trip location by designing the spatiotemporal context prompts for LLMs. The designed prompting strategies enable LLMs to capture implicit land use information (trip purposes), spatiotemporal mobility patterns (choice preferences), and geographical dependencies of the stations used (choice variability). The lingoTrip is validated using Hong Kong Mass Transit Railway trip data by comparing it with the state-of-the-art data-driven mobility prediction models under different training data sizes. Sensitivity analyses are performed for model hyperparameters and their tuning methods to adapt for other datasets. The results show that LingoTrip outperforms data-driven models in terms of prediction accuracy, transferability (between individuals), zero/few shot learning (limited training sample size) and interpretability of predictions. The LingoTrip model can facilitate the effective provision of personalized information for system crowding and disruption contexts (i.e., proactively providing information to targeted individuals).
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引用次数: 0
The personal safety burden for women taking public transport in Australia and implications for provision of equitable public transport
IF 2 4区 工程技术 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubtr.2025.100118
Julie A. King , Dominique A. Greer , Rae S.M. Danvers , Byron W. Keating
Travel on public transport for women is associated with concerns about safety from harassment and violence, and women may avoid public transport or make changes to their travel as a consequence. This qualitative research aimed to explore women’s experiences on public transport, the steps they take to avoid harassment and violence, and what they thought could be done to improve their safety. Women (n = 44) in Australia’s two largest cities, Sydney and Melbourne, were recruited for focus group discussions and their responses were analysed thematically. The results showed that women experience a personal safety burden, due to the need to anticipate possible exposure to harassment and violence, plan ways of avoiding or mitigating the risk, and use defensive tactics to cope with uncomfortable situations. This personal safety burden has five dimensions: cognitive, temporal, emotional, financial and social. The responses showed that women tended to take the public transport system as a given, and to believe they needed to take responsibility for their own safety, so that they did not nominate particular solutions for public transport providers to implement. However, it was evident that the features of public transport travel that participants felt were safer, such as the presence of trained staff, are diminishing with the move to greater use of technology and automation. It is considered that public transport providers have an obligation to ensure that women are not disadvantaged by the personal safety burden observed in this research. It is recommended that public transport providers note the existing features that women find safer (e.g., well-lit environment, presence of trained staff) and seek to extend their provision; and investigate innovative means of maintaining and enhancing safety for women while pursing technological change.
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引用次数: 0
The influence of walking accessibility on station-to-station passenger flow and its interaction with metropolitan race/class segregation: A case study of MARTA’s heavy-rail network, Atlanta (USA)
IF 2 4区 工程技术 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubtr.2024.100115
Luis Enrique Ramos-Santiago , Luke Derochers
Mass transit is a key transport strategy in helping cities decarbonize, adapt to an era of rapid climate change, and guide rapid urbanization. Central to transit planning is the ability to accurately estimate demand for an effective, efficient, and equitable infrastructure and services. Instrumental to this effort is direct-demand modelling (DDM), which has evolved to become more nuanced in predicting ridership at station-level and station-to-station levels and in shedding light on key ridership and performance determinants. Local and Metropolitan accessibility as predictors of transit patronage has been shown significant in recent DDM studies at station-level, with an apparent synergistic relationship. This, however, has not been explored on a station-to-station passenger flow level. In several ways this is a more valid unit of analysis for rail ridership studies as it captures critical factors between and at both ends of the trip that are experienced by the passenger. It is also well documented that the sensitivity of passengers to key ridership determinants varies across income levels. In some jurisdictions income level strongly correlates with race/ethnicity and/or class, due in part to historical legacies of classism and/or racism. Segregation because of class and/or race prejudice, often found in US cities, might yield spatial heterogeneity in whole-network DDM model parameters and introduce bias that could potentially mislead transit analysts, policy makers, and systemwide effectiveness. We explored and tested these possibilities and considered modelling and policy implications as we leveraged Atlanta’s legacy of racial and income segregation in studying MARTA’s Origin-Destination (O-D) passenger flow patterns. First, a potential synergistic relationship between origin-stations’ and destination-stations’ walking accessibility levels was tested. Disparities, if any, in this and other ridership determinants were then explored between two distinct sets of O-D pairs whose origin Pedsheds accommodate majority-white or majority-nonwhite residents. Comparison and testing using generalized crossed-effects modelling reveals important differences in fit, magnitude, and significance of some parameters across submodels and as compared to the whole-network model. We also identified distinct moderating effects of distance between O-D pair stations and walking accessibility levels across submodels. In racially- and/or class-segregated cities planners would benefit from developing race- and/or class-based DDM submodels that would likely yield less biassed parameters; improve our understanding of rail transit patronage determinants; and help in crafting more effective and equitable transit and land-use policies.
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引用次数: 0
Exploring antecedents of passengers’ behavioral intentions toward autonomous buses: A decomposed planning behavior approach
IF 2 4区 工程技术 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubtr.2025.100116
Kai-Chieh Hu , Li-Hao Yang
The increasing prominence of autonomous buses in metropolitan transportation has sparked considerable interest. However, the absence of a comprehensive theoretical framework hinders the systematic exploration of factors influencing passengers’ behavioral intentions regarding autonomous buses. This study addresses this gap by employing the decomposed planning behavior theory to investigate the antecedents of passengers’ behavioral intentions. Additionally, the study examines the impact of travel anxiety and perceived risk on passengers’ attitudes. Data were collected through a questionnaire survey, and structural equation modeling was utilized to rigorously test the research model. The findings reveal that purchase intention is positively influenced by novelty seeking, subjective norm, and perceived behavioral control, while being negatively impacted by travel anxiety. Conversely, travel anxiety is negatively influenced by novelty seeking but positively affected by perceived risk. Moreover, interpersonal influence positively affects subjective norm, and self-efficacy has a positive influence on perceived behavioral control. This study offers valuable insights for current and potential bus operators and government entities seeking to advance the promotion of autonomous buses in metropolitan areas.
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引用次数: 0
Data-driven causal behaviour modelling from trajectory data: A case for fare incentives in public transport
IF 2 4区 工程技术 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubtr.2024.100114
Yuanyuan Wu , Alex Markham , Leizhen Wang , Liam Solus , Zhenliang Ma
Behaviour modelling has been widely explored using both statistical and machine learning techniques, primarily relying on analyzing correlations to understand passenger responses under different conditions and scenarios. However, correlation alone does not imply causation. This paper introduces a data-driven causal behaviour modelling approach, comprising two phases: causal discovery and causal inference. Causal discovery phase uses Peter-Clark (PC) algorithm to learn a directed acyclic graph that captures the causal relationships among variables. Causal inference phase estimates the corresponding model parameters and infers (conditional) causal effects of interventions designed to influence user behaviour. The method is validated by comparing the results with those from conventional modelling approaches (logistic regression and expert knowledge) using smart card data from a real-world use case on a pre-peak fare discount incentive program in the Hong Kong Mass Transit Railway system. The results highlight that the purely data-driven causal discovery method can produce reasonable causal graph. The method can also quantify the behavioural impacts of the incentive, identify key influencing factors, and estimate the corresponding causal effects. The overall causal effect of the incentive is approximately 0.7 %, with about 3 % of the population changing behaviour from previous statistical analysis. Interestingly, passengers with the highest flexibility exhibit a negative response, while those with medium-to-high flexibility demonstrate 3 times of the general level of responsiveness. The approach initiates the data-driven, causal modelling of human behaviour dynamics to support policy developments and managerial interventions.
{"title":"Data-driven causal behaviour modelling from trajectory data: A case for fare incentives in public transport","authors":"Yuanyuan Wu ,&nbsp;Alex Markham ,&nbsp;Leizhen Wang ,&nbsp;Liam Solus ,&nbsp;Zhenliang Ma","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubtr.2024.100114","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubtr.2024.100114","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Behaviour modelling has been widely explored using both statistical and machine learning techniques, primarily relying on analyzing correlations to understand passenger responses under different conditions and scenarios. However, correlation alone does not imply causation. This paper introduces a data-driven causal behaviour modelling approach, comprising two phases: causal discovery and causal inference. Causal discovery phase uses Peter-Clark (PC) algorithm to learn a directed acyclic graph that captures the causal relationships among variables. Causal inference phase estimates the corresponding model parameters and infers (conditional) causal effects of interventions designed to influence user behaviour. The method is validated by comparing the results with those from conventional modelling approaches (logistic regression and expert knowledge) using smart card data from a real-world use case on a pre-peak fare discount incentive program in the Hong Kong Mass Transit Railway system. The results highlight that the purely data-driven causal discovery method can produce reasonable causal graph. The method can also quantify the behavioural impacts of the incentive, identify key influencing factors, and estimate the corresponding causal effects. The overall causal effect of the incentive is approximately 0.7 %, with about 3 % of the population changing behaviour from previous statistical analysis. Interestingly, passengers with the highest flexibility exhibit a negative response, while those with medium-to-high flexibility demonstrate 3 times of the general level of responsiveness. The approach initiates the data-driven, causal modelling of human behaviour dynamics to support policy developments and managerial interventions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47173,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Transportation","volume":"27 ","pages":"Article 100114"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143168444","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How flexible transportation services work in reality?- some insights from real-world observations
IF 2 4区 工程技术 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubtr.2025.100121
Ran Du , Fumitaka Kurauchi , Toshiyuki Nakamura , Masahiro Kuwahara
Public transportation in Japan currently faces serious challenges, including depopulation, dispersed low demand, and a shortage of drivers. To address these issues and cover wider areas with fewer drivers, flexible transport systems like demand-responsive transport (DRT) services are becoming increasingly popular, particularly in rural areas, thanks to recent advancements in Information and Communication Technologies (ICT). Despite the potential for reduced operational costs through more efficient service provision, overall costs often remain high due to increased operator and system costs. Improving the efficiency of services is crucial even for flexible transport systems. Understanding detailed traveler behaviors within these systems is essential for this purpose.
Flexible transport systems often incorporate online booking and vehicle assignment systems, allowing for the automatic collection of booking data. By analyzing this data, we can gain insights into the behaviors of travelers and the patterns of bus stop utilization. This study utilizes booking data to examine the interactions between passengers and bus stops in flexible transport systems, with a particular focus on understanding and discussing patterns of regularity and variability in both traveler behavior and bus stop usage.
The study uses nine years of booking data (2015–2023) from a mid-sized city in Gifu Prefecture, encompassing 845 passengers and 142,638 records. The analysis first explores the regularity of traveler behaviors and bus stop usage patterns, followed by a discussion on the flexibility or variability of vehicle movements.
The results show that vehicle movements are primarily driven by regular high-frequency travelers, who use the service for commuting and returning home. This dominance often excludes low-frequency random travelers from accessing the service. Additionally, it is suggested that minimizing total operational costs may not adequately assign travelers onto vehicles, and the implementation of monthly passes may further reinforce the dominance of high-frequency travelers.
These insights underscore the importance of considering service designs from various dimensions, including user behavior, spatial factors, and temporal patterns, for the effective optimization of flexible transport systems.
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引用次数: 0
Decency in the digital era: Exploring preferences of transit riding among females in different life stages
IF 2 4区 工程技术 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubtr.2024.100112
Bing Yan , Chen Wan , Yinli Chen , Chengcheng Yu , Lu Huang
Investigating women’s public transit usage intentions (TUIs) is essential for enhancing service quality and ensuring female passengers’ travel rights. However, for women with distinct socioeconomic backgrounds, the heterogeneity of factors impacting their TUIs is not thoroughly explored. In this research, we conducted a survey in Hangzhou, China, collected 1294 valid questionnaires from women, and employed the Latent Class Analysis method (LCA) and Ordered Logit Model (OLM) to identify the distinct determinants of TUIs among different female groups. The findings reveal that: (1) Retired elderly women, who are less able to walk, require more spatial accessibility of transit services and the availability to reduce their first/last-mile walking and waiting time; (2) Middle-aged and high-income groups prioritize comfort, punctuality, and safety, particularly favoring the provision of ladies-only seating areas; (3) Young and student groups' transit usage is predominantly influenced by fare policies. By incorporating digital technologies, customized operational strategies such as real-time transit information systems, surveillance cameras, tiered discount schemes, and digital payment services are recommended to improve the TUIs among different female groups. Our work contributes to creating a more female-friendly public transit environment.
{"title":"Decency in the digital era: Exploring preferences of transit riding among females in different life stages","authors":"Bing Yan ,&nbsp;Chen Wan ,&nbsp;Yinli Chen ,&nbsp;Chengcheng Yu ,&nbsp;Lu Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubtr.2024.100112","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubtr.2024.100112","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Investigating women’s public transit usage intentions (TUIs) is essential for enhancing service quality and ensuring female passengers’ travel rights. However, for women with distinct socioeconomic backgrounds, the heterogeneity of factors impacting their TUIs is not thoroughly explored. In this research, we conducted a survey in Hangzhou, China, collected 1294 valid questionnaires from women, and employed the Latent Class Analysis method (LCA) and Ordered Logit Model (OLM) to identify the distinct determinants of TUIs among different female groups. The findings reveal that: (1) Retired elderly women, who are less able to walk, require more spatial accessibility of transit services and the availability to reduce their first/last-mile walking and waiting time; (2) Middle-aged and high-income groups prioritize comfort, punctuality, and safety, particularly favoring the provision of ladies-only seating areas; (3) Young and student groups' transit usage is predominantly influenced by fare policies. By incorporating digital technologies, customized operational strategies such as real-time transit information systems, surveillance cameras, tiered discount schemes, and digital payment services are recommended to improve the TUIs among different female groups. Our work contributes to creating a more female-friendly public transit environment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47173,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Transportation","volume":"27 ","pages":"Article 100112"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143167472","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
From the fringes to the mainstream and back? The geography of pandemic-driven evolution of fare-free public transport in the United States
IF 2 4区 工程技术 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubtr.2025.100119
Monika Maciejewska , Wojciech Kębłowski , Merlin Gillard
The article examines the surprising uptake of the fare-free public transport (FFPT) policy in the United States during the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic. While sanitary lockdowns led to a drastic reduction of mobility, safe public transport (PT) services had to be maintained to cater for “essential workers”. To achieve this, many urban transit agencies (TAs) adopted FFPT. To examine where PT became fare-free during the pandemic, we built and analysed a new dataset based on information from nearly 400 urban TAs across the US. Our findings indicate that two-thirds of the public TAs in urban areas opted to suspend fare collection amid the pandemic, with the analysis uncovering 73 cases of full FFPT on top of the 29 that had existed before the pandemic. FFPT emerged in areas with diverse demographic and economic profiles. Localities with higher Democratic Party support were more likely to abolish fares and sustain the suspensions, while larger transit agencies with substantial vehicle fleets tended to resume fare collection sooner. These findings highlight the complex factors influencing the adoption and duration of FFPT programmes in response to the pandemic, and underscore the adaptability of PT policies in the response. In sum, we observe that FFPT has shifted from the policy margins to the mainstream, having transformed from a highly controversial measure to a widely accepted strategy. Although the number of FFPT cases decreased significantly after the initial waves of the pandemic, it nonetheless remained much higher than pre-pandemic levels, with 40 TAs continuing to offer fare-free services.
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引用次数: 0
Benefits from a new transit line: Exploring the impact of rare users and spatially heterogeneous variations in intensity of use
IF 2 4区 工程技术 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubtr.2025.100120
Durba Kundu , Somwrita Sarkar , Emily Moylan
What are the city-wide benefits of introducing a new transit mode? Justification of a new transit mode is often based on claims of transformational change regarding mode share, ridership, or passenger-kilometers travelled (PKT). Detractors argue that these dramatic benefits are not experienced uniformly across populations or places. This paper quantifies the extent and intensity of the change in travel behaviour caused by the addition of a new mode and builds on measures of increased ridership and PKT to explore who is travelling on the new mode and in what ways. Recent advances in smartcard data analysis provide detailed insights into transit ridership but are often temporally limited, restricting the ability to analyse long-term behavioural trends. While research on transit ridership patterns exists, few studies compare users of the old and new modes in terms of spatial distribution and intensity of use. This study relies on a long baseline of data to estimate the home locations of travellers and their intensity of use. Our findings challenge assumptions about infrequent users and reveal that rare users significantly influence ridership patterns. Increased reach of ridership is substantiated based on the appearance of new cards 48 % higher than usual after the light rail introduction. However, only about 4 % of new card IDs make trips at a rate equivalent to a daily commute. The results show strong spatial patterns, with 50 % of frequent light rail riders having inferred home locations at the new stations and 63 % of daily riders not using the bus to access the light rail. This approach suggests that (1) rare users, though they ride less often, have a notable impact on ridership trends; (2) transit-access distances are shorter than conventional assumptions of approximately half-a-mile; and (3) ridership benefits show strong spatial patterns.
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引用次数: 0
Simulating the effect of strategies to increase transit ridership by reallocating bus service: Two case studies 模拟通过重新分配公交服务来增加公交乘客量的战略效果:两个案例研究
IF 12.2 4区 工程技术 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubtr.2023.100080
Gregory D. Erhardt , Vedant S. Goyal , Josephine Kressner , Simon J. Berrebi , Candace Brakewood , Kari E. Watkins

We evaluate three strategies that transit operators might consider to increase ridership: a) increasing service on bus routes serving the highest share of low-income riders, b) increasing service on those bus routes with the highest ridership, and c) further providing the high-ridership routes identified in strategy (b) with exclusive bus lanes. In each scenario, we double the service frequency of buses on the focus routes and reduce the frequency on all other routes to maintain the total vehicle revenue miles, making the changes roughly cost-neutral. We tested these scenarios for Oshkosh, Wisconsin, and Atlanta, Georgia, using a modeling framework that combines CityCast, a commercially available data-driven planning tool to replicate observed travel patterns, and MATSim to simulate how travelers would change the route, mode, and time-of-day of the trips they make in response to the service changes. The results show substantial ridership gains for all but one scenario, suggesting that these strategies may provide a promising, low-cost means of increasing transit ridership in some contexts. However, impacts varied across the two case studies, indicating that local conditions play a role.

我们评估了公交运营商为增加乘客量而可能考虑的三种策略:a) 增加低收入乘客比例最高的公交线路的服务;b) 增加乘客量最高的公交线路的服务;c) 进一步为策略(b)中确定的高乘客量线路提供公交专用道。在每种方案中,我们都会将重点线路上的公交车服务频率增加一倍,并减少所有其他线路上的频率,以维持车辆总收入里程,从而使这些变化大致不增加成本。我们在威斯康星州奥什科什市和佐治亚州亚特兰大市测试了这些方案,使用的建模框架结合了 CityCast(一种商用数据驱动规划工具,用于复制观察到的出行模式)和 MATSim(模拟乘客如何根据服务变化改变出行路线、方式和时间)。结果显示,除一种方案外,其他方案的乘客量都有大幅增加,这表明这些策略在某些情况下可能是增加公交乘客量的一种有前景、低成本的方法。然而,两个案例研究的影响各不相同,这表明当地条件在其中发挥了作用。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Public Transportation
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