Pub Date : 2023-11-24DOI: 10.1057/s41308-023-00228-5
Joshua Aizenman, Huanhuan Zheng
Sovereign borrowing during inflation surges is a litmus test of a government’s ability to withstand and navigate macroeconomic shocks. Based on transaction-level bond issuance data, we explore how sovereign financing strategies differ between surging and stable inflations and how policy practices affect their ability to weather inflation shocks. We find that governments lean more toward external borrowing in foreign currency during periods of high inflation, in part to reduce borrowing costs. This pattern is particularly prevalent in emerging markets (EMs), especially when the inflation surge is prolonged and severe. We further show that good practices of fiscal discipline and credibly pegged exchange rate regime alleviate external borrowing in foreign currency amid inflation surges.
{"title":"Inflation Surge and Sovereign Borrowing: The Role of Policy Practices in Strengthening Sovereign Resilience","authors":"Joshua Aizenman, Huanhuan Zheng","doi":"10.1057/s41308-023-00228-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1057/s41308-023-00228-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Sovereign borrowing during inflation surges is a litmus test of a government’s ability to withstand and navigate macroeconomic shocks. Based on transaction-level bond issuance data, we explore how sovereign financing strategies differ between surging and stable inflations and how policy practices affect their ability to weather inflation shocks. We find that governments lean more toward external borrowing in foreign currency during periods of high inflation, in part to reduce borrowing costs. This pattern is particularly prevalent in emerging markets (EMs), especially when the inflation surge is prolonged and severe. We further show that good practices of fiscal discipline and credibly pegged exchange rate regime alleviate external borrowing in foreign currency amid inflation surges.</p>","PeriodicalId":47177,"journal":{"name":"Imf Economic Review","volume":"77 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2023-11-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138518682","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-11-08DOI: 10.1057/s41308-023-00221-y
Òscar Jordà, Moritz Schularick, Alan M. Taylor
{"title":"Disasters Everywhere: The Costs of Business Cycles Reconsidered","authors":"Òscar Jordà, Moritz Schularick, Alan M. Taylor","doi":"10.1057/s41308-023-00221-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1057/s41308-023-00221-y","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47177,"journal":{"name":"Imf Economic Review","volume":"221 2","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135341479","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-11DOI: 10.1057/s41308-023-00220-z
Gautam Nair, Federico Sturzenegger
{"title":"Great Dilution: The Global Impact of the US Inflation Shock on Sovereign Debt","authors":"Gautam Nair, Federico Sturzenegger","doi":"10.1057/s41308-023-00220-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1057/s41308-023-00220-z","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47177,"journal":{"name":"Imf Economic Review","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136210337","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-13DOI: 10.1057/s41308-023-00215-w
Christiane Kneer, Alexander Raabe
{"title":"Tracking Foreign Capital: The Effect of Capital Inflows on Bank Lending in the UK","authors":"Christiane Kneer, Alexander Raabe","doi":"10.1057/s41308-023-00215-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1057/s41308-023-00215-w","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47177,"journal":{"name":"Imf Economic Review","volume":"2017 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134989819","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-04DOI: 10.1057/s41308-023-00219-6
Eiji Okano, Masataka Eguchi
{"title":"The Effects of a Money-Financed Fiscal Stimulus in a Small Open Economy","authors":"Eiji Okano, Masataka Eguchi","doi":"10.1057/s41308-023-00219-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1057/s41308-023-00219-6","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47177,"journal":{"name":"Imf Economic Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2023-09-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43591271","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-01DOI: 10.1057/s41308-023-00218-7
Julian di Giovanni, John Rogers
{"title":"The Impact of U.S. Monetary Policy on Foreign Firms","authors":"Julian di Giovanni, John Rogers","doi":"10.1057/s41308-023-00218-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1057/s41308-023-00218-7","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47177,"journal":{"name":"Imf Economic Review","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42083888","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-31DOI: 10.1057/s41308-023-00206-x
D. Matveev, F. Ruge-Murcia
{"title":"Tariffs and the Exchange Rate: Evidence from Twitter","authors":"D. Matveev, F. Ruge-Murcia","doi":"10.1057/s41308-023-00206-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1057/s41308-023-00206-x","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47177,"journal":{"name":"Imf Economic Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2023-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46490859","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}