Pub Date : 2023-08-26DOI: 10.1057/s41308-023-00216-9
Alina Bobasu, André Geis, Lucia Quaglietti, Martino Ricci
{"title":"Tracking Global Economic Uncertainty: Implications for the Euro Area","authors":"Alina Bobasu, André Geis, Lucia Quaglietti, Martino Ricci","doi":"10.1057/s41308-023-00216-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1057/s41308-023-00216-9","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47177,"journal":{"name":"Imf Economic Review","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135183039","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-18DOI: 10.1057/s41308-023-00210-1
M. Pinchetti, A. Szczepaniak
{"title":"Global Spillovers of the Fed Information Effect","authors":"M. Pinchetti, A. Szczepaniak","doi":"10.1057/s41308-023-00210-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1057/s41308-023-00210-1","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47177,"journal":{"name":"Imf Economic Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2023-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48224028","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-17DOI: 10.1057/s41308-023-00209-8
George Alessandria, Oscar Avila
{"title":"Trade Integration, Industry Reallocation, and Welfare in Colombia","authors":"George Alessandria, Oscar Avila","doi":"10.1057/s41308-023-00209-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1057/s41308-023-00209-8","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47177,"journal":{"name":"Imf Economic Review","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136214289","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-17DOI: 10.1057/s41308-023-00212-z
Rachel Glennerster, Christopher M. Snyder, Brandon Joel Tan
{"title":"Calculating the Costs and Benefits of Advance Preparations for Future Pandemics","authors":"Rachel Glennerster, Christopher M. Snyder, Brandon Joel Tan","doi":"10.1057/s41308-023-00212-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1057/s41308-023-00212-z","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47177,"journal":{"name":"Imf Economic Review","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136215211","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-04DOI: 10.1057/s41308-023-00214-x
Giancarlo Corsetti, Bartosz Maćkowiak
We study a model in which policy aims at aggregate price stability. A fiscal imbalance materializes that, if uncorrected, must cause inflation, but the imbalance may get corrected in the future with some probability. By maintaining price stability in the near term, monetary policy can buy time for a correction to take place. The policy gamble may succeed, preserving price and fiscal stability, or fail, leading to a delayed, possibly large jump in the price level. The resulting dynamics resemble the models of a currency crisis following Krugman (J Money Credit Bank 11:311–325, 1979) and Obstfeld (Am Econ Rev 76: 72–81, 1986). Like in Obstfeld’s work, multiple equilibria arise naturally: whether or not price stability is preserved may depend on private agents’ expectations. The model can be reinterpreted as a model of partial default on public debt, in which case it is reminiscent of Calvo (Am Econ Rev 78:647–661, 1988).
{"title":"Gambling to Preserve Price (and Fiscal) Stability","authors":"Giancarlo Corsetti, Bartosz Maćkowiak","doi":"10.1057/s41308-023-00214-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1057/s41308-023-00214-x","url":null,"abstract":"We study a model in which policy aims at aggregate price stability. A fiscal imbalance materializes that, if uncorrected, must cause inflation, but the imbalance may get corrected in the future with some probability. By maintaining price stability in the near term, monetary policy can buy time for a correction to take place. The policy gamble may succeed, preserving price and fiscal stability, or fail, leading to a delayed, possibly large jump in the price level. The resulting dynamics resemble the models of a currency crisis following Krugman (J Money Credit Bank 11:311–325, 1979) and Obstfeld (Am Econ Rev 76: 72–81, 1986). Like in Obstfeld’s work, multiple equilibria arise naturally: whether or not price stability is preserved may depend on private agents’ expectations. The model can be reinterpreted as a model of partial default on public debt, in which case it is reminiscent of Calvo (Am Econ Rev 78:647–661, 1988).","PeriodicalId":47177,"journal":{"name":"Imf Economic Review","volume":"116 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136119036","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-06-27DOI: 10.1057/s41308-023-00204-z
Mahir Binici, M. Das, E. Pugacheva
{"title":"The Incidence of Capital Flow Management Measures: Observations from a New Database","authors":"Mahir Binici, M. Das, E. Pugacheva","doi":"10.1057/s41308-023-00204-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1057/s41308-023-00204-z","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47177,"journal":{"name":"Imf Economic Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2023-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46485905","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-06-21DOI: 10.1057/s41308-023-00203-0
Gregory Casey, Stephie Fried, Ethan Goode
We use theory and empirics to distinguish between the impact of temperature on transition (temporary) and steady-state (permanent) growth in output per capita. Standard economic theory suggests that the long-run growth rate of output per capita is determined entirely by the growth rate of total factor productivity (TFP). We find evidence suggesting that the level of temperature affects the level of TFP, but not the growth rate of TFP. This implies that a change in temperature will have a temporary impact on growth in output per capita. To highlight the quantitative importance of distinguishing between permanent and temporary changes in economic growth, we use our empirical estimates and theoretical framework to project the impacts of future increases in temperature caused by climate change. We find losses that are substantial, but smaller than those in the existing empirical literature that assumes a change in temperature permanently affects economic growth.
{"title":"Projecting the Impact of Rising Temperatures: The Role of Macroeconomic Dynamics","authors":"Gregory Casey, Stephie Fried, Ethan Goode","doi":"10.1057/s41308-023-00203-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1057/s41308-023-00203-0","url":null,"abstract":"We use theory and empirics to distinguish between the impact of temperature on transition (temporary) and steady-state (permanent) growth in output per capita. Standard economic theory suggests that the long-run growth rate of output per capita is determined entirely by the growth rate of total factor productivity (TFP). We find evidence suggesting that the level of temperature affects the level of TFP, but not the growth rate of TFP. This implies that a change in temperature will have a temporary impact on growth in output per capita. To highlight the quantitative importance of distinguishing between permanent and temporary changes in economic growth, we use our empirical estimates and theoretical framework to project the impacts of future increases in temperature caused by climate change. We find losses that are substantial, but smaller than those in the existing empirical literature that assumes a change in temperature permanently affects economic growth.","PeriodicalId":47177,"journal":{"name":"Imf Economic Review","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136356149","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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