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Public Employment Agency Reform, Matching Efficiency, and German Unemployment 公共职业机构改革、匹配效率与德国失业
2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Imf Economic Review
Pub Date : 2023-06-14 DOI: 10.1057/s41308-023-00201-2
Christian Merkl, Timo Sauerbier
Our paper analyzes the role of public employment agencies in job matching, in particular the effects of the restructuring of the Federal Employment Agency in Germany (Hartz III labor market reform) for aggregate matching and unemployment. Based on two microeconomic datasets, we show that the market share of the Federal Employment Agency as job intermediary declined after the Hartz reforms. We propose a macroeconomic model of the labor market with a private and a public search channel and fit the model to various dimensions of the data. We show that direct intermediation activities of the Federal Employment Agency did not contribute to the decline in unemployment in Germany. By contrast, improved activation of unemployed workers reduced unemployed by 0.8 percentage points. Through the lens of an aggregate matching function, more activation is associated with a larger matching efficiency.
本文分析了公共职业介绍所在职业匹配中的作用，特别是德国联邦职业介绍所重组(Hartz III劳动力市场改革)对总匹配和失业的影响。基于两个微观经济数据集，我们发现联邦职业介绍所作为就业中介机构的市场份额在哈茨改革后有所下降。我们提出了一个具有私人和公共搜索渠道的劳动力市场宏观经济模型，并将模型拟合到数据的各个维度。我们表明，联邦就业局的直接中介活动并没有对德国失业率的下降做出贡献。相比之下，失业工人激活程度的提高使失业率下降了0.8个百分点。从聚合匹配函数的角度来看，激活越多，匹配效率越高。
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引用次数: 0
Equity Home Bias in a Capital Market Union 资本市场联盟中的股权本土偏好
IF 4.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Imf Economic Review
Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.1057/s41308-023-00197-9
M. Sihvonen
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引用次数: 0
Foreign Vulnerabilities, Domestic Risks: The Global Drivers of GDP-at-Risk 国外脆弱性，国内风险:风险gdp的全球驱动因素
2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Imf Economic Review
Pub Date : 2023-02-10 DOI: 10.1057/s41308-023-00199-7
Simon Lloyd, Ed Manuel, Konstantin Panchev
We study how foreign financial developments influence the conditional distribution of domestic GDP growth. We propose a method to account for foreign vulnerabilities using bilateral-exposure weights when assessing downside macroeconomic risks within quantile regressions. For an advanced-economy panel, we show that tighter foreign financial conditions and faster foreign credit-to-GDP growth are associated with a more severe left-tail of domestic GDP growth, even controlling for domestic indicators. Incorporating foreign variables improves estimates of domestic GDP-at-Risk, both in and out of sample. Decomposing GDP-at-Risk into domestic and foreign origins, we show that foreign shocks are a key driver of domestic macroeconomic tail risks.
我们研究国外金融发展如何影响国内GDP增长的条件分配。我们提出了一种在分位数回归中评估下行宏观经济风险时使用双边暴露权重来解释外国脆弱性的方法。对于一个发达经济体的面板，我们表明，即使控制了国内指标，更严格的外国金融条件和更快的外国信贷占GDP的增长与更严重的国内GDP增长左尾相关。纳入国外变量可以改善对国内风险gdp的估计，无论是在样本内还是样本外。将风险gdp分解为国内和国外来源，我们发现国外冲击是国内宏观经济尾部风险的关键驱动因素。
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引用次数: 0
Is to Forgive to Forget? Sovereign Risk in the Aftermath of Private or Official Debt Restructurings 原谅就是忘记?私人或官方债务重组后的主权风险
IF 4.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Imf Economic Review
Pub Date : 2023-02-01 DOI: 10.1057/s41308-023-00198-8
S. Marchesi, T. Masi, Pietro Bomprezzi
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引用次数: 0
Inattentive Search for Currency Fundamentals 漫不经心地搜索货币基本面
2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Imf Economic Review
Pub Date : 2023-01-14 DOI: 10.1057/s41308-022-00195-3
Agnieszka P. Markiewicz, Ralph C. Verhoeks, Willem F. C. Verschoor, Remco C. J. Zwinkels
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引用次数: 4
Tariff Reductions, Heterogeneous Firms, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for 1990–2010 关税削减、异质企业和福利：1990–2010年的理论和证据
IF 4.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Imf Economic Review
Pub Date : 2023-01-11 DOI: 10.1057/s41308-022-00194-4
Lorenzo Caliendo, R. Feenstra, John Romalis, Alan M. Taylor
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引用次数: 3
Capital Controls Checkup: Cases, Customs, Consequences 资本管制检查:案例，海关，后果
IF 4.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Imf Economic Review
Pub Date : 2022-11-22 DOI: 10.1057/s41308-022-00193-5
Stefan Goldbach, Volker Nitsch

This paper examines the effect of administrative restrictions on cross-border capital transactions. Using highly disaggregated data from the German balance of payments statistics for the period from 1999 through 2017, we document several stylized facts about the effectiveness of such capital control policies introduced by other countries. Capital controls are associated with economically and statistically significant declines in capital flows; they affect bilateral financial relationships along both the extensive and the intensive margin.

本文考察了行政限制对跨境资本交易的影响。利用1999年至2017年期间德国国际收支统计数据的高度分类数据，我们记录了其他国家引入的此类资本管制政策有效性的几个格式化事实。资本管制与资本流动在经济上和统计上的显著下降有关;它们在粗放型和集约型两方面影响着双边金融关系。
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引用次数: 0
Profit Shifting, Returns on Foreign Direct Investments and Investment Income Imbalances 利润转移、外国直接投资回报与投资收益失衡
IF 4.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Imf Economic Review
Pub Date : 2022-11-09 DOI: 10.1057/s41308-022-00191-7
V. Vicard
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引用次数: 1
Foreign Exchange Intervention: A New Database 外汇干预:一个新的数据库
IF 4.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Imf Economic Review
Pub Date : 2022-10-22 DOI: 10.1057/s41308-022-00190-8
Marcel Fratzscher, Tobias Heidland, Lukas Menkhoff, Lucio Sarno, Maik Schmeling

We construct a novel database of monthly foreign exchange interventions for 49 countries over up to 22 years. We build on a text classification approach that extracts information about interventions from news articles and calibrate our procedure to data about actual interventions. This new dataset allows us to document stylized facts about the use of foreign exchange interventions for countries that neither publish their data nor make them available to researchers. Moreover, we provide evidence on how foreign exchange interventions are used in conjunction with capital controls and macroprudential policy.

我们构建了一个新颖的数据库，记录了49个国家22年来每月的外汇干预情况。我们建立在文本分类方法的基础上，该方法从新闻文章中提取有关干预措施的信息，并根据实际干预措施的数据校准我们的程序。这个新的数据集使我们能够记录那些既不公布数据也不向研究人员提供数据的国家使用外汇干预的风格化事实。此外，我们还提供了外汇干预如何与资本管制和宏观审慎政策结合使用的证据。
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引用次数: 0
The Dominant Role of Large Firms in Profit Shifting 大企业在利润转移中的主导作用
IF 4.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Imf Economic Review
Pub Date : 2022-10-21 DOI: 10.1057/s41308-022-00180-w
Ludvig Wier, H. Erasmus
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引用次数: 3
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