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Partisan communication in two-stage elections: the effect of primaries on intra-campaign positional shifts in congressional elections 两阶段选举中的党派沟通:初选对国会选举中竞选内部立场转变的影响
IF 3.9 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-01-10 DOI: 10.1017/psrm.2023.62
Mike Cowburn, Marius Sältzer
The influence of congressional primary elections on candidate positioning remains disputed and poorly understood. We test whether candidates communicate artificially “extreme” positions during the nomination, as revealed by moderation following a primary defeat. We apply a scaling method based on candidates language on Twitter to estimate positions of 988 candidates in contested US House of Representatives primaries in 2020 over time, demonstrating validity against NOMINATE (r > 0.93) where possible. Losing Democratic candidates moderated significantly after their primary defeat, indicating strategic position-taking for perceived electoral benefit, where the nomination contest induced artificially “extreme” communication. We find no such effect among Republicans. These findings have implications for candidate strategy in two-stage elections and provide further evidence of elite partisan asymmetry.
国会初选对候选人定位的影响仍存在争议,人们对其了解甚少。我们检验了候选人是否在提名期间人为地传达了 "极端 "立场,这一点可以通过初选失败后的缓和来揭示。我们采用一种基于候选人在 Twitter 上语言的缩放方法,估算了在 2020 年有争议的美国众议院初选中 988 名候选人的立场,并在可能的情况下证明了与 NOMINATE(r > 0.93)的有效性。初选落败的民主党候选人在初选落败后立场明显缓和,这表明他们出于选举利益的考虑而采取了策略性立场,提名竞争人为地诱发了 "极端 "传播。我们在共和党人中没有发现这种影响。这些发现对两阶段选举中的候选人策略有一定影响,并进一步证明了精英党派的不对称。
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引用次数: 0
Election symbols and vote choice: evidence from India 选举标志与选票选择:印度的证据
IF 3.9 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-01-04 DOI: 10.1017/psrm.2023.58
Alexander Lee, Weihong Qi
A large literature has shown that ballot order and ballot structure can influence vote choice. We focus on another behavioral cue for voting, the symbols that are assigned to candidates in many democracies. We take advantage of a naturally occurring experiment in India, where independent candidates can choose from a list of free symbols and conflicting choices are resolved by a drawing of lots. We find that winning the draw has a substantial positive effect on vote share. We also find some evidence that candidates attempt to choose their symbols strategically, for instance choosing household goods common in their constituencies.
大量文献表明,选票顺序和选票结构会影响投票选择。我们将重点放在投票的另一种行为线索上,即许多民主国家分配给候选人的符号。在印度,独立候选人可以从自由符号列表中进行选择,有冲突的选择通过抽签解决。我们发现,抽签获胜对得票率有很大的积极影响。我们还发现一些证据表明,候选人试图战略性地选择他们的标志,例如选择选区内常见的家居用品。
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引用次数: 0
Local elections do not increase local news demand 地方选举不会增加地方新闻需求
IF 3.9 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-12-20 DOI: 10.1017/psrm.2023.59
Joshua McCrain, Erik Peterson
Anemic demand for local news has contributed to an industry crisis. We consider whether local elections, which highlight the ability of local television stations and newspapers to provide information that is unavailable from national news outlets, increase local media use. While we show these elections are a time of increased attention to local politics in the news and among the public, we also find local media outlets do not benefit from this when considering behavioral news use measures. Relative to news outlets in cities without an election, local television remains substantively unchanged during local elections. Newspaper website traffic is largely stable, although it falls slightly the month after an election. In both cases these differences are small, even when considering close races and those happening off the federal election cycle. This shows limits on the ability of salient local political events to motivate local news use.
对地方新闻的需求不足导致了行业危机。地方选举凸显了地方电视台和报纸提供全国性新闻机构无法提供的信息的能力,我们考虑地方选举是否会增加地方媒体的使用。我们的研究表明,在这些选举期间,新闻界和公众对地方政治的关注度都有所提高,但在考虑行为新闻使用量时,我们也发现地方媒体并没有从中受益。与没有选举的城市的新闻机构相比,地方电视台在地方选举期间基本保持不变。报纸网站流量基本稳定,尽管在选举后的一个月略有下降。在这两种情况下,即使考虑到近距离的竞选和那些发生在联邦选举周期之外的竞选,这些差异也很小。这表明突出的地方政治事件对地方新闻使用的激励能力是有限的。
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引用次数: 0
The (in)effectiveness of populist rhetoric: a conjoint experiment of campaign messaging 民粹主义言论的(无效)效果:竞选信息的联合实验
IF 3.9 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-11-23 DOI: 10.1017/psrm.2023.55
Yaoyao Dai, A. Kustov
Is populism electorally effective and, if so, why? Scholars agree that populism is a set of people-centric, anti-pluralist, and anti-elitist ideas that can be combined with various ideological positions. It is difficult, yet important, to disentangle populism from its hosting ideology in evaluating populism's effectiveness and its potential conditional effects on the hosting ideology. We conduct a novel US conjoint experiment asking respondents to evaluate pairs of realistic campaign messages with varying populism-related messages and hosting policy positions given by hypothetical primary candidates. Although party-congruent policy positions are expectedly much more popular, we find that none of the populist features have an independent or combined effect on candidate choice.
民粹主义在选举中是否有效?学者们一致认为,民粹主义是一套以人为本、反多元化和反精英主义的思想,可以与各种意识形态立场相结合。在评估民粹主义的有效性及其对所持意识形态的潜在条件性影响时,很难将民粹主义与其所持意识形态区分开来,但这一点很重要。我们在美国进行了一项新颖的联合实验,要求受访者评估由假定的初选候选人提供的与民粹主义相关的不同信息和东道主政策立场的现实竞选信息对。尽管与党派一致的政策立场会更受欢迎,但我们发现民粹主义的所有特征都不会对候选人的选择产生独立或综合的影响。
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引用次数: 0
The American public's attitudes over how judges use legal principles to make decisions 美国公众对法官如何利用法律原则做出判决的态度
IF 3.9 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-11-17 DOI: 10.1017/psrm.2023.53
Albert H. Rivero, Andrew R. Stone
We investigate the American public's attitudes over an integral component of judicial behavior: the legal principles judges employ when making decisions. Our theoretical perspective argues that political preferences shape individuals’ attitudes over how judges apply legal principles, mirroring ideological divisions expressed by political elites and judges. Using an original battery of questions, we find high support across all Americans for the use of certain, well-established legal principles, but stark differences in how liberals and conservatives evaluate the use of more controversial principles. In a survey experiment, we find that agreement (disagreement) between an individual's attitudes over the use of legal principles and the reasoning contained in a Supreme Court opinion is associated with increased (decreased) support for the Court decision.
我们调查了美国公众对司法行为的一个组成部分--法官在做出判决时所采用的法律原则--的态度。我们的理论观点认为,政治偏好决定了个人对法官如何应用法律原则的态度,反映了政治精英和法官所表达的意识形态分歧。通过使用一系列原创问题,我们发现所有美国人都非常支持使用某些既定的法律原则,但自由派和保守派在如何评价使用更具争议性的原则方面却存在明显差异。在一项调查实验中,我们发现个人对使用法律原则的态度与最高法院意见中包含的推理之间的一致(不一致)与法院判决支持率的上升(下降)有关。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluating methods for examining the relative persuasiveness of policy arguments 评估审查政策论据相对说服力的方法
IF 3.9 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-11-17 DOI: 10.1017/psrm.2023.54
Jared McDonald, M. Hanmer
Survey researchers testing the effectiveness of arguments for or against policies traditionally employ between-subjects designs. In doing so, they lose statistical power and the ability to precisely estimate public attitudes. We explore the efficacy of an approach often used to address these limitations: the repeated measures within-subjects (RMWS) design. This study tests the competing hypotheses that (1) the RMWS will yield smaller effects due to respondents' desire to maintain consistency (the “opinion anchor” hypothesis), and (2) the RMWS will yield larger effects because the researcher provides respondents with the opportunity to update their attitudes (the “opportunity to revise” hypothesis). Using two survey experiments, we find evidence for the opportunity to revise hypothesis, and discuss the implications for future survey research.
调查研究人员在测试支持或反对政策的论据的有效性时,传统上采用的是主体间设计。这样,他们就失去了统计能力和精确估计公众态度的能力。我们探讨了一种常用来解决这些局限性的方法的有效性:主体内重复测量(RMWS)设计。本研究检验了两个相互竞争的假设:(1) 由于受访者希望保持一致,RMWS 产生的效果较小("意见锚 "假设);(2) 由于研究者为受访者提供了更新态度的机会,RMWS 产生的效果较大("修正机会 "假设)。通过两个调查实验,我们发现了 "修正机会 "假设的证据,并讨论了其对未来调查研究的影响。
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引用次数: 0
The bureaucratic politics of authoritarian repression: intra-agency reform and surveillance capacity in communist Poland 专制镇压的官僚政治:共产主义波兰的机构内部改革和监督能力
2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-11-09 DOI: 10.1017/psrm.2023.41
Henry Thomson
Abstract Coercive institutions' internal structures remain poorly understood. Bureaucratic reorganizations within security institutions cause significant variation in their behavior, however. Intra-agency reforms interact with officers' careerist incentives to cause changes in coercive capacity or repression. In this paper, I test the effects of intra-agency reforms on surveillance capacity. I exploit a rare source of exogenous variation in the structure of the secret police in communist Poland. Difference-in-differences models find that when security headquarters were duplicated through an administrative reform, the proliferation of higher-level posts within the service caused a large and statistically significant increase in the number of informants it employed. Intra-agency reform substantially altered the agency's coercive capacity. Previously overlooked dynamics within coercive institutions have important effects on authoritarian repression.
强制性制度的内部结构仍然知之甚少。然而,安全机构内部的官僚重组导致其行为发生重大变化。机构内部改革与官员的野心家动机相互作用,导致强制能力或镇压的变化。在本文中,我检验了机构内部改革对监督能力的影响。我利用了共产主义波兰秘密警察结构中一个罕见的外生变异来源。差异中的差异模型发现,当通过行政改革复制安全总部时,服务部门内较高级别员额的增加导致其雇用的线人人数大幅增加,在统计上具有显著意义。机构内部改革大大改变了机构的强制能力。以前被忽视的强制性机构内部的动态对专制镇压有重要影响。
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引用次数: 0
Traditional institutions in Africa: past and present 非洲的传统制度:过去和现在
2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-11-06 DOI: 10.1017/psrm.2023.50
Clara Neupert-Wentz, Carl Müller-Crepon
Abstract To what degree and why are traditional institutions persistent? Following up the literature on the long-term effects of precolonial institutions in Africa, we investigate whether and where today's traditional institutions mirror their precolonial predecessors. We do so by linking data on contemporary traditional institutions of African ethnic groups with Murdock's historical Ethnographic Atlas. We find a robust association between past and present levels of institutional complexity, differentiating between institutions’ political centralization and functional differentiation. However, this persistence originates almost exclusively from former British colonies governed with more reliance on precolonial institutions than other colonies, in particular French ones. These findings contribute to research on the development and effects of traditional institutions, highlighting the need to account for varying persistence of traditional institutions.
传统制度能坚持到什么程度,为什么能坚持?根据有关非洲前殖民制度长期影响的文献,我们调查了今天的传统制度是否以及在哪里反映了它们的前殖民前辈。我们通过将非洲民族群体的当代传统制度数据与默多克的历史民族志地图集联系起来来做到这一点。我们发现过去和现在的制度复杂性水平之间存在强大的关联,区分了制度的政治集中化和功能分化。然而,这种持久性几乎完全来自于英国的前殖民地,这些殖民地比其他殖民地,特别是法国殖民地,更依赖于前殖民制度。这些发现有助于对传统制度的发展和影响进行研究,强调需要解释传统制度的不同持久性。
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引用次数: 0
Persistence of voice pitch bias against policy differences 持续存在对政策差异的音高偏见
2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-10-31 DOI: 10.1017/psrm.2023.51
Asli Ceren Cinar, Özgür Kıbrıs
Abstract We use an online experiment to study the relative effect on voter behavior of a candidate’s voice pitch and policy stance. We demonstrate a strong voice-pitch bias: between candidates who are identical in every other aspect, voters are more likely to choose the one with the lower voice-pitch, and more so in elections between men than women candidates. We then introduce a novel phenomenon: persistence of voice-pitch bias is the amount of policy difference needed to compensate for voice-pitch bias. While persistence is also gender-dependent, the effect is now reversed: voice-pitch bias is more persistent in elections between women than men candidates. As a possible mechanism, we show that voters perceive candidates with lower voice-pitch as more competent and trustworthy.
摘要本文通过在线实验研究了候选人的音高和政策立场对选民行为的相对影响。我们证明了一种强烈的音高偏见:在其他方面都完全相同的候选人之间,选民更有可能选择音高较低的候选人,在男性候选人之间的选举中比女性候选人更容易选择音高较低的候选人。然后,我们引入了一个新的现象:音高偏差的持久性是补偿音高偏差所需的政策差异的数量。虽然持久性也与性别有关,但现在这种影响被逆转了:在女性候选人之间的选举中,音高偏见比男性候选人之间的选举更持久。作为一种可能的机制,我们表明选民认为音调较低的候选人更有能力和值得信赖。
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引用次数: 0
Complaints about police misconduct have adverse effects for Black civilians 对警察不当行为的投诉对黑人平民产生了不利影响
2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-10-30 DOI: 10.1017/psrm.2023.49
Patrick W. Kraft, Benjamin J. Newman
Abstract Existing literature examines the effectiveness of civilian oversight in reducing police misconduct. However, little-to-no quantitative research explores possible adverse consequences of this accountability mechanism. Utilizing time series analysis of administrative data on aggregate monthly civilian complaints and police behavior in the largest American city, this article offers evidence of racial inequality in police response to civilian complaints. For White civilians, complaint against the police abates subsequent police stops. For Black civilians, complaint is associated with subsequent intensification of police stops. This intensification only follows complaints against White officers, is conditional upon officer knowledge of the complaint, is confined to stops involving greater officer discretion to perform the stop, and is only observed in police precincts with large Black populations.
现有文献考察了民事监督在减少警察不当行为方面的有效性。然而,很少甚至没有定量研究探讨这种问责机制可能产生的不利后果。本文利用对美国最大城市每月累计平民投诉和警察行为的行政数据的时间序列分析,提供了警察在应对平民投诉方面存在种族不平等的证据。对白人平民来说,对警察的投诉减少了随后的警察拦截。对于黑人平民来说,抱怨与警察随后加强拦截有关。这种强化只在针对白人警察的投诉发生后,以警官对投诉的了解为条件,仅限于警察在执行拦截时有更大的自由裁量权,并且只在黑人人口较多的警察辖区内观察到。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Political Science Research and Methods
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