Evaluation Review最新文献

Gold and stocks, which are conventionally regarded as a safe haven and risk assets, respectively, exhibit complex interrelationships, with significant implications for financial risk management. This paper builds on the sentiment categorization proposed by Liang et al. (2020) to distinguish between private and public sector sentiment. The construction of sentiment indices for both sectors aims to allow the exploration of the heterogeneous effects of these sector-specific sentiments on the gold-stock market linkages in China under different market conditions. The empirical results demonstrate a notable asymmetry in the impact of market sentiment between the public and private sectors, with distinct manifestations in stable versus highly volatile market environments. Specifically, positive sentiment in the public sector tends to diminish the safe-haven function of gold, whereas positive sentiment in the private sector tends to reinforce it. This disparity becomes particularly evident during periods of extreme market volatility. Our findings not only underscore the diverse impacts of market sentiment but also provide novel insights into the importance of incorporating sector-specific sentiment when devising hedging strategies for specific industries.

The foremost index of caregiving quality is child attachment, as supported by attachment theory. Research supports the relevance of early parenting interventions in improving child outcomes in attachment quality to promote public health because of their long-term effects on mental health and functioning. This study aimed at evaluating the impact on both parenting and child outcomes of the Parent-Child Psychological Support Programme® (PCPS), a community-based program individually tailored to parents and their infants during periodic center-based visits to promote attachment security. The evaluation involved two cohorts from "vulnerable populations" and used the resources embedded in the program design without interfering with the normal functioning of the service. From an evaluative research approach, the effects on mothers and children were assessed using a quantitative approach. Pre- and post-test measures (parenting questionnaires) and child attachment quality assessments through the Strange Situation Procedure were examined. The equivalence of the cohorts was verified and used as a baseline for parenting outcomes. PCPS participants demonstrated increased parental competence and self-efficacy, as well as reduced levels of parenting stress. Analysis of the two cohorts showed a significant difference in the number of visits and proxies for intervention, which were associated with the expected pre-post changes in parenting dimensions. The proportion of securely attached children was significantly higher in the "medium-high intervention" group than in the "no/low intervention" group (72.7% vs 54.5%). Furthermore, compared with international baselines, this proportion showed no differences in the "no-/low-intervention" group but demonstrated expected significant differences in the "medium-high intervention" group.

Official development agencies are increasingly supporting civil society lobby and advocacy (L&A) to address poverty and human rights. However, there are challenges in evaluating L&A. As programme objectives are often to change policies or practices in a single institution like a Government Ministry, L&A programmes are often not amenable to large-n impact evaluation methods. They often work in strategic partnerships to foster change; hence, contribution may be a more relevant evaluation question than attribution. Small-n qualitative approaches are available to measure the effectiveness of L&A which use the theory of change as their analytical framework. We conducted a meta-evaluation of 36 evaluations of multi-component international programmes to support civil society L&A across Asia, Africa and Latin America, comprising the majority of programmatic support from one international donor. We assessed the confidence in causal claims in the evaluations using a new tool that we developed. Assessments of the contribution of the programmes to the changes in outcomes were not provided in many of the evaluations, nor were predictable sources of bias addressed. Given that L&A programmes are likely to adopt an influencing approach where many different inside-track and outside-track engagement objectives, opportunities and strategies are attempted, many of which might be expected to fail, there appeared to be a clear bias in the evaluations towards reporting outcomes that were achieved, ignoring those that were not. We provide guidance on how to improve the design, conduct and reporting of small-n qualitative evaluations of aid effectiveness.

Performance management in university-based scientific research institutions is essential for driving reform, advancing education quality, and fostering innovation. However, current performance evaluation models often focus solely on research indicators, neglecting the critical interdependence between the education and research systems. This oversight leads to inefficiencies in resource allocation and an underestimation of overall institutional performance, particularly in universities with varying development levels. To address these deficiencies, this study introduces two innovative two-stage data envelopment analysis models: the group-frontier and meta-frontier evaluation models. The findings are validated using data from 144 universities across China. They demonstrate that the proposed models effectively mitigate the underestimation of efficiency in traditional models and accurately reflect the intertwined nature of university subsystems and the disparities in university development. These results offer valuable insights for improving the performance of scientific research institutions and informing the strategic decisions of university administrators and government education departments.

In this letter to the editor, we compare six different event history models to estimate which eligible families participated in a subsidized rental housing program and when. Answering these questions can inform efforts to improve program marketing and outreach, staffing and budgeting, triage, bias identification, as well as benchmarking and evaluation. One of six specifications clearly outperforms the others and understanding how will inform similar research pursuits. Although decision-relevant participation patterns are available in state administrative records, deciphering them is difficult for several well-known reasons. Participants enter and exit the eligible risk pool at different times, for different reasons, and at different rates. To answer our questions of when and whom, we restructure the data from calendar to relative months and then employ event history models designed to accurately estimate a complete hypothetical risk trajectory from observed spells of varying lengths, many of which ended before families took up the rental subsidy, (i.e., censored observation spells). We find that eligible parents most likely to take up the subsidy live in high-rent counties, have relatively strong recent work history, short prior adult lifetime TANF receipt, and medium-size families. Program take-up fell substantially during the COVID-19 pandemic. Contrasting the application of six parallel specifications, we find that a Royston-Parmar proportional hazard model achieves an exceptional balance between the descriptive accuracy of discrete time approaches and the elegance of Cox regression.

The information technology revolution has fundamentally altered company operations around the world. The Internet has significantly enhanced employee connectedness in the workplace, eclipsing the antiquated brick-and-mortar model. Nonetheless, as information technology advances, cyberbullying has grown in popularity in the professional environment. Cyberbullying is not geographically, temporally, or milieu-specific. Arguments concerning this ubiquitous danger have plagued scholars and professionals for several decades as they debated its conception, prevalence, and implications. The current research digs into many facets of cyberbullying to facilitate the creation of constructive policies and effectively manage the labor environment. Additionally, a few ideas and remedies are offered, as well as the future course of action for effectively addressing the crucial issue of cyberbullying.

When and how to survey potential respondents is often determined by budgetary and external constraints, but choice of survey modality may have enormous implications for data quality. Different survey modalities may be differentially susceptible to measurement error attributable to interviewer assignment, known as interviewer effects. In this paper, we leverage highly similar surveys, one conducted face-to-face (FTF) and the other via phone, to examine variation in interviewer effects across survey modality and question type. We find that while there are no cross-modality differences for simple questions, interviewer effects are markedly higher for sensitive questions asked over the phone. These findings are likely explained by the enhanced ability of in-person interviewers to foster rapport and engagement with respondents. We conclude with a thought experiment that illustrates the potential implications for power calculations, namely, that using FTF data to inform phone surveys may substantially underestimate the necessary sample size for sensitive questions.

Behaviour change communication (BCC) remains a central component of the interventions used in the fight against malaria in Ghana. However, there is limited evidence of its effectiveness. This study evaluated the effects of BCC strategies on knowledge (symptoms, causes and prevention) and overall knowledge of malaria among Ghanaian women aged 15-49 years. The propensity score matching (PSM) approach and logistic regression were used to analyse data from the 2016 edition of the Malaria Indicator Survey (MIS). Women who participated in community-level education or heard/saw media messages on malaria, or both, had significantly more knowledge of the disease than women who lacked access to any of these mediums of communication. The effect of these strategies on women's overall knowledge of malaria is about 2% to 4% and is higher on their knowledge of the symptoms (3% to 6%) and prevention (2% to 4%) than the causes (2%). The combined effects of both mediums of communication are relatively higher than the effect of either of them as a single medium of communication. Further analysis showed that improved knowledge of the disease is associated with higher preventive measures taken by women for themselves and for their children. The results are more significant in rural and poor households than in urban and non-poor households. These findings underscore the need for the Ministry of Health and its partner institutions to adopt an innovative approach which combines the two strategies in intensively educating Ghanaians, and women in particular, on the symptoms and prevention of malaria, giving due cognisance to households' socioeconomic status and geographical location.

Unfolding item response theory (IRT) models are important alternatives to dominance IRT models in describing the response processes on self-report tests. Their usage is common in personality measures, since they indicate potential differentiations in test score interpretation. This paper aims to gain a better insight into the structure of trait personality, by investigating whether the dominance or alternatively the unfolding IRT model are better descriptors of the response processes on a personality measure constructed under the dominance response theorem. For the assessment of the dominant model, the Graded Response Model (GRM) is used; while for the unfolding model, the Generalized Graded Unfolding Model (GGUM) was examined. All analyses are conducted with the freely available R. A sample of 1340 Greek adults, employed in private and public organizations, fulfilled the Trait Personality Questionnaire 5 short-form (TPQue5). Findings contradict previous research on trait personality. In accordance to the construction method employed, the TPQue5 items are best understood by monotonically increasing item response functions (IRFs). Individuals responding to the TPQue5 increase their probability of endorsing its items as their trait level increases; this stands for all personality dimensions, although Openness to Experience exhibited mixed type of item response patterns. Further research directions, implications and limitations are also discussed.

When planning a cluster randomized trial, evaluators often have access to an enumerated cohort representing the target population of clusters. Practicalities of conducting the trial, such as the need to oversample clusters with certain characteristics in order to improve trial economy or support inferences about subgroups of clusters, may preclude simple random sampling from the cohort into the trial, and thus interfere with the goal of producing generalizable inferences about the target population. We describe a nested trial design where the randomized clusters are embedded within a cohort of trial-eligible clusters from the target population and where clusters are selected for inclusion in the trial with known sampling probabilities that may depend on cluster characteristics (e.g., allowing clusters to be chosen to facilitate trial conduct or to examine hypotheses related to their characteristics). We develop and evaluate methods for analyzing data from this design to generalize causal inferences to the target population underlying the cohort. We present identification and estimation results for the expectation of the average potential outcome and for the average treatment effect, in the entire target population of clusters and in its non-randomized subset. In simulation studies, we show that all the estimators have low bias but markedly different precision. Cluster randomized trials where clusters are selected for inclusion with known sampling probabilities that depend on cluster characteristics, combined with efficient estimation methods, can precisely quantify treatment effects in the target population, while addressing objectives of trial conduct that require oversampling clusters on the basis of their characteristics.