Abstract A growing literature suggests that carbon emissions are most efficiently reduced by carbon pricing. The evidence base on the effectiveness of market-based mechanisms, however, faces three key limitations: studies often (a) predict, rather than evaluate effects, (b) show large difference in findings, and (c) cannot always infer causal relations. Quasi-experimental studies can address these challenges by using variation in policies over time, space, or entities. This paper systematically reviews this new literature, outlines the benefits and caveats of quasi-experimental methodologies, and verifies the reliability and value of quasi-experimental estimates. The overall evidence base documents a causal effect between carbon pricing and emission reductions, with ambiguous effects on economic outcomes, and there are important gaps and inconsistencies. This review underscores that estimates should be interpreted with care because of: (a) inappropriate choice of method, (b) incorrect implementation of empirical analysis (e.g., violate identifying assumptions), and (c) data limitations. More cross-learning across studies and use of novel empirical strategies is needed to improve the empirical evidence base going forward.
{"title":"Quasi-Experimental Evidence on Carbon Pricing","authors":"Kasper Vrolijk, Misato Sato","doi":"10.1093/wbro/lkad001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/wbro/lkad001","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract A growing literature suggests that carbon emissions are most efficiently reduced by carbon pricing. The evidence base on the effectiveness of market-based mechanisms, however, faces three key limitations: studies often (a) predict, rather than evaluate effects, (b) show large difference in findings, and (c) cannot always infer causal relations. Quasi-experimental studies can address these challenges by using variation in policies over time, space, or entities. This paper systematically reviews this new literature, outlines the benefits and caveats of quasi-experimental methodologies, and verifies the reliability and value of quasi-experimental estimates. The overall evidence base documents a causal effect between carbon pricing and emission reductions, with ambiguous effects on economic outcomes, and there are important gaps and inconsistencies. This review underscores that estimates should be interpreted with care because of: (a) inappropriate choice of method, (b) incorrect implementation of empirical analysis (e.g., violate identifying assumptions), and (c) data limitations. More cross-learning across studies and use of novel empirical strategies is needed to improve the empirical evidence base going forward.","PeriodicalId":47647,"journal":{"name":"World Bank Research Observer","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135528863","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Only one in seven of the world's population have ever migrated, despite the enormous gains in income possible through international and internal movement. I examine the evidence for different explanations given in the economics literature for this lack of movement and their implications for policy. Incorrect information about the gains to migrating, liquidity constraints that prevent poor people paying the costs of moving, and high costs of movement arising from both physical transportation costs and policy barriers all inhibit movement and offer scope for policy efforts to inform, provide credit, and lower moving costs. However, the economics literature has paid less attention to the fears people have when faced with the uncertainty of moving to a new place, and to the reasons behind the tears they shed when moving. While these tears reveal the attachment people have to particular places, this attachment is not fixed, but itself changes with migration experiences. Psychological factors such as a bias toward the status quo and the inability to picture what one is giving up by not migrating can result in people not moving, even when they would benefit from movement and are not constrained by finances or policy barriers from doing so. This suggests new avenues for policy interventions that can help individuals better visualize the opportunity costs of not moving, alleviate their uncertainties, and help shift their default behavior from not migrating.
{"title":"Fears and Tears: Should More People Be Moving within and from Developing Countries, and What Stops this Movement?","authors":"David McKenzie","doi":"10.1093/wbro/lkac009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/wbro/lkac009","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Only one in seven of the world's population have ever migrated, despite the enormous gains in income possible through international and internal movement. I examine the evidence for different explanations given in the economics literature for this lack of movement and their implications for policy. Incorrect information about the gains to migrating, liquidity constraints that prevent poor people paying the costs of moving, and high costs of movement arising from both physical transportation costs and policy barriers all inhibit movement and offer scope for policy efforts to inform, provide credit, and lower moving costs. However, the economics literature has paid less attention to the fears people have when faced with the uncertainty of moving to a new place, and to the reasons behind the tears they shed when moving. While these tears reveal the attachment people have to particular places, this attachment is not fixed, but itself changes with migration experiences. Psychological factors such as a bias toward the status quo and the inability to picture what one is giving up by not migrating can result in people not moving, even when they would benefit from movement and are not constrained by finances or policy barriers from doing so. This suggests new avenues for policy interventions that can help individuals better visualize the opportunity costs of not moving, alleviate their uncertainties, and help shift their default behavior from not migrating.","PeriodicalId":47647,"journal":{"name":"World Bank Research Observer","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136322114","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Leonardo Baccini, Matteo Fiorini, B. Hoekman, M. Sanfilippo
This article presents data and analyzes the structure of employment in 13 African economies at the administrative unit level, with a focus on the role of services. We provide two novel pieces of evidence. First, we present a descriptive snapshot of changes in the composition of employment over time and across geographies. This reveals evidence of structural transformation toward services and service-related occupations at subnational level and provides a fine-grained overview of who works in services and where and how this has changed over time. Second, we provide correlations between services and economic development, using per capita nightlight luminosity as a proxy. We document (1) a strong positive association between high skills services and economic development; (2) substantial heterogeneity across industries within services; and (3) a mediating role of market conditions and technology in the relation between services and economic development. Overall, our work highlights an important role of services activities for employment, skills, and economic development in Africa.
{"title":"Services, Jobs, and Economic Development in Africa","authors":"Leonardo Baccini, Matteo Fiorini, B. Hoekman, M. Sanfilippo","doi":"10.1093/wbro/lkac006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/wbro/lkac006","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This article presents data and analyzes the structure of employment in 13 African economies at the administrative unit level, with a focus on the role of services. We provide two novel pieces of evidence. First, we present a descriptive snapshot of changes in the composition of employment over time and across geographies. This reveals evidence of structural transformation toward services and service-related occupations at subnational level and provides a fine-grained overview of who works in services and where and how this has changed over time. Second, we provide correlations between services and economic development, using per capita nightlight luminosity as a proxy. We document (1) a strong positive association between high skills services and economic development; (2) substantial heterogeneity across industries within services; and (3) a mediating role of market conditions and technology in the relation between services and economic development. Overall, our work highlights an important role of services activities for employment, skills, and economic development in Africa.","PeriodicalId":47647,"journal":{"name":"World Bank Research Observer","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2022-08-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47937421","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"OUP accepted manuscript","authors":"","doi":"10.1093/wbro/lkac004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/wbro/lkac004","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47647,"journal":{"name":"World Bank Research Observer","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"61100810","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"OUP accepted manuscript","authors":"","doi":"10.1093/wbro/lkac001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/wbro/lkac001","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47647,"journal":{"name":"World Bank Research Observer","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"61100784","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"OUP accepted manuscript","authors":"","doi":"10.1093/wbro/lkac002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/wbro/lkac002","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47647,"journal":{"name":"World Bank Research Observer","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"61100792","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The emergence of educational technology (“EdTech”) in developing countries has been received as a promising avenue to address some of the most challenging policy questions within educational systems. In this paper, I review and synthesize all existing studies with credible causal identification frameworks of EdTech interventions in developing countries. While other studies review the evidence for EdTech interventions in developed countries, there is currently no equivalent study for developing contexts, in spite of the rising number of studies being produced. I classify studies into four thematic categories based on the type of EdTech intervention analyzed: Access to technology; technology-enabled behavioral interventions; improvements to instruction; and self-led learning. I find that EdTech interventions centered around self-led learning and improvements to instruction are the most effective forms of EdTech at raising learning outcomes. Similarly, technology-enabled behavioral interventions are less promising for generating large effects but highly cost-effective given their typically low marginal costs. Although expanding access to technology alone is not sufficient to improve learning, it is a necessary first step for some other types of interventions. More broadly, the overall success of interventions rests on the thoughtful customization of the EdTech solution to the policy constraints at hand. Finally, EdTech interventions across all thematic areas can and should act as complements by leveraging their respective comparative advantages to address deficiencies within educational systems in developing countries.
{"title":"EdTech in Developing Countries: A Review of the Evidence","authors":"Daniel Rodriguez-Segura","doi":"10.1093/wbro/lkab011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/wbro/lkab011","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The emergence of educational technology (“EdTech”) in developing countries has been received as a promising avenue to address some of the most challenging policy questions within educational systems. In this paper, I review and synthesize all existing studies with credible causal identification frameworks of EdTech interventions in developing countries. While other studies review the evidence for EdTech interventions in developed countries, there is currently no equivalent study for developing contexts, in spite of the rising number of studies being produced. I classify studies into four thematic categories based on the type of EdTech intervention analyzed: Access to technology; technology-enabled behavioral interventions; improvements to instruction; and self-led learning. I find that EdTech interventions centered around self-led learning and improvements to instruction are the most effective forms of EdTech at raising learning outcomes. Similarly, technology-enabled behavioral interventions are less promising for generating large effects but highly cost-effective given their typically low marginal costs. Although expanding access to technology alone is not sufficient to improve learning, it is a necessary first step for some other types of interventions. More broadly, the overall success of interventions rests on the thoughtful customization of the EdTech solution to the policy constraints at hand. Finally, EdTech interventions across all thematic areas can and should act as complements by leveraging their respective comparative advantages to address deficiencies within educational systems in developing countries.","PeriodicalId":47647,"journal":{"name":"World Bank Research Observer","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2021-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45364290","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Globally, humanitarian needs have reached an historically unprecedented scale, undermining the ability of affected children to survive, grow, and thrive. Social protection holds the promise of addressing acute needs and risks faced by children in crisis contexts, while allowing for human capital investments. We review evidence of the impact of emergency cash, food, and other in-kind transfers implemented by governments or humanitarian actors on child development in different contexts. Compared with development settings, rigorous evidence for crises is limited. Most existing studies focus on either schooling or acute malnutrition, highlighting that transfers can mitigate the detrimental effects of crises on these outcomes. Evidence on linear growth, micronutrient deficiencies, health, labor, learning, psychosocial outcomes, and child protection is limited. Also, most studies are set in contexts characterized by high institutional fragility in which emergency social protection is undertaken by international organizations, while evidence from settings where institutional capacity for shock-responsive social protection exists is scarce. Further gaps relate to the cost-effectiveness of alternative program designs and delivery modalities; heterogeneity by child and household backgrounds; and longer-term effects of interventions. Filling these gaps is critical to support child-sensitive approaches to social protection in crises to effectively pursue Sustainable Development Goal 1.
{"title":"Social Protection for Child Development in Crisis: A Review of Evidence and Knowledge Gaps","authors":"E. Aurino, S. Giunti","doi":"10.1093/wbro/lkab007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/wbro/lkab007","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Globally, humanitarian needs have reached an historically unprecedented scale, undermining the ability of affected children to survive, grow, and thrive. Social protection holds the promise of addressing acute needs and risks faced by children in crisis contexts, while allowing for human capital investments. We review evidence of the impact of emergency cash, food, and other in-kind transfers implemented by governments or humanitarian actors on child development in different contexts. Compared with development settings, rigorous evidence for crises is limited. Most existing studies focus on either schooling or acute malnutrition, highlighting that transfers can mitigate the detrimental effects of crises on these outcomes. Evidence on linear growth, micronutrient deficiencies, health, labor, learning, psychosocial outcomes, and child protection is limited. Also, most studies are set in contexts characterized by high institutional fragility in which emergency social protection is undertaken by international organizations, while evidence from settings where institutional capacity for shock-responsive social protection exists is scarce. Further gaps relate to the cost-effectiveness of alternative program designs and delivery modalities; heterogeneity by child and household backgrounds; and longer-term effects of interventions. Filling these gaps is critical to support child-sensitive approaches to social protection in crises to effectively pursue Sustainable Development Goal 1.","PeriodicalId":47647,"journal":{"name":"World Bank Research Observer","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2021-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47608335","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Teacher effectiveness is low in many developing countries. How can it be improved? We show that understanding teacher beliefs may be an important but overlooked part of the puzzle. Our review of recent evidence shows that teacher beliefs can impact student outcomes directly; they can also mediate policy implementation. Despite this, we find that teacher beliefs are seldom accounted for or even measured in impact evaluations of teacher-focused programs. Most of these programs ultimately fail to change teacher behavior. Next, using survey data from 20,000 teachers across nine developing countries, we discuss teacher beliefs about their role, their effort, and their students’ learning. We uncover four insights. First, teachers exhibit fixed mindsets on the learning potential of disadvantaged students. For instance, nearly 43 percent of teachers believe that “there is little they can do to help a student learn” if parents are uneducated. Second, in most countries, more teachers believe that students deserve additional attention if they are performing well than if they are lagging behind. This suggests that teachers may be reinforcing rather than compensating for baseline gaps in student levels. Third, there is some normalization of absenteeism—nearly one in four teachers believe it is acceptable to be absent if students are left with work to do. Finally, teacher support for pay-for-performance varies widely across countries.
{"title":"Teacher Beliefs: Why They Matter and What They Are","authors":"Shwetlena Sabarwal, Malek Abu-Jawdeh, Radhika Kapoor","doi":"10.1093/WBRO/LKAB008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/WBRO/LKAB008","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Teacher effectiveness is low in many developing countries. How can it be improved? We show that understanding teacher beliefs may be an important but overlooked part of the puzzle. Our review of recent evidence shows that teacher beliefs can impact student outcomes directly; they can also mediate policy implementation. Despite this, we find that teacher beliefs are seldom accounted for or even measured in impact evaluations of teacher-focused programs. Most of these programs ultimately fail to change teacher behavior. Next, using survey data from 20,000 teachers across nine developing countries, we discuss teacher beliefs about their role, their effort, and their students’ learning. We uncover four insights. First, teachers exhibit fixed mindsets on the learning potential of disadvantaged students. For instance, nearly 43 percent of teachers believe that “there is little they can do to help a student learn” if parents are uneducated. Second, in most countries, more teachers believe that students deserve additional attention if they are performing well than if they are lagging behind. This suggests that teachers may be reinforcing rather than compensating for baseline gaps in student levels. Third, there is some normalization of absenteeism—nearly one in four teachers believe it is acceptable to be absent if students are left with work to do. Finally, teacher support for pay-for-performance varies widely across countries.","PeriodicalId":47647,"journal":{"name":"World Bank Research Observer","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2021-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43001379","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper uses a large database of surveys of household incomes to characterize income underreporting in household surveys in low- and middle-income countries. The objective is to document (a) the extent of this underreporting, and (b) whether and how it varies systematically with respondent, household, income, and survey design features. Drawing on rural household data from 20 developing and transition countries, and using consumption expenditure as a benchmark, results indicate that the observed income/consumption ratios are very small, being on average around 0.76. Results suggest that income underreporting is systematically associated with household and survey characteristics. In particular, the degree of underreporting is strongly associated with the income source, with agricultural income being the component suffering more than any other components from underreporting. The analysis also provides evidence supporting the well-established proposition that underreporting tends to increase with household welfare: richer households appear to underreport income more. Implications for survey design and for future research are drawn.
{"title":"Measure for Measure: Comparing Survey Based Estimates of Income and Consumption for Rural Households","authors":"G. Carletto, M. Tiberti, A. Zezza","doi":"10.1093/WBRO/LKAB009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/WBRO/LKAB009","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This paper uses a large database of surveys of household incomes to characterize income underreporting in household surveys in low- and middle-income countries. The objective is to document (a) the extent of this underreporting, and (b) whether and how it varies systematically with respondent, household, income, and survey design features. Drawing on rural household data from 20 developing and transition countries, and using consumption expenditure as a benchmark, results indicate that the observed income/consumption ratios are very small, being on average around 0.76. Results suggest that income underreporting is systematically associated with household and survey characteristics. In particular, the degree of underreporting is strongly associated with the income source, with agricultural income being the component suffering more than any other components from underreporting. The analysis also provides evidence supporting the well-established proposition that underreporting tends to increase with household welfare: richer households appear to underreport income more. Implications for survey design and for future research are drawn.","PeriodicalId":47647,"journal":{"name":"World Bank Research Observer","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2021-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44582540","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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