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Beyond Poverty Escapes—Social Mobility in Developing Countries: A Review Article 超越贫困的逃亡——发展中国家的社会流动:一篇评论文章
IF 8.1 1区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2019-09-10 DOI: 10.1093/WBRO/LKZ003
V. Iversen, A. Krishna, K. Sen
While social mobility in advanced economies has received extensive scholarly attention, crucial knowledge gaps remain about the patterns and determinants of income, educational, and occupational mobility in developing countries. Focusing on intergenerational mobility, we find that estimates often differ greatly for the same country, depending on the concept and measure of mobility used, on variable constructions and on the data set utilized. There is also wide variation in mobility across regions and social groups. We discuss data and income and other variable measurement challenges when agriculture and the informal sector absorb most of the workforce, and illustrate why occupational classifications and widely used mobility measures may perform less well in such settings. Factors beyond those featuring in the literature on advanced economies are plausible determinants of social mobility, particularly of what we call moderate and large ascents (and descents), in developing country contexts. We highlight the lack of in-depth understanding of the multiple and often localized hurdles to such more pronounced progress. Similar knowledge gaps exist for large descents, which give rise to particularly profound concerns in low-income settings. We report and touch on the implications of suggestive findings of a disconnect between educational and occupational mobility. Innovative research requires critical engagement with theory and with methodology, identification, and data challenges that may overlap or deviate notably from those encountered in advanced economies.
虽然发达经济体的社会流动性受到了广泛的学术关注,但在发展中国家,关于收入、教育和职业流动性的模式和决定因素,仍存在重大的知识缺口。关注代际流动性,我们发现,根据所使用的流动性概念和衡量标准、变量结构和所使用的数据集,对同一个国家的估计往往存在很大差异。区域和社会群体之间的流动性也存在很大差异。我们讨论了在农业和非正规部门吸收了大部分劳动力的情况下,数据、收入和其他变量测量面临的挑战,并说明了为什么职业分类和广泛使用的流动性测量在这种情况下可能表现不佳。在发达经济体的文献中所描述的因素之外,其他因素似乎是社会流动性的决定因素,特别是在发展中国家,我们称之为适度和大幅上升(和下降)的因素。我们强调,对这种更明显的进展所面临的多重且往往是局部的障碍缺乏深入了解。大幅度下降也存在类似的知识差距,这在低收入环境中引起了特别深刻的关切。我们报告并触及教育和职业流动性之间脱节的暗示性发现的含义。创新研究需要对理论、方法、识别和数据挑战进行批判性的参与,这些挑战可能与发达经济体中遇到的问题重叠或明显偏离。
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引用次数: 36
External Validity and Policy Adaptation: From Impact Evaluation to Policy Design 外部有效性与政策适应:从影响评价到政策设计
IF 8.1 1区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2019-08-01 DOI: 10.1093/wbro/lky010
M. J. Williams
With the growing number of impact evaluations worldwide, the question of how to apply this evidence in policy making processes has arguably become the main challenge for evidence-based policy making. How can policy makers predict whether a policy will have the same impact in their context as it did elsewhere, and how should this influence the policy’s design and implementation? This paper suggests that failures of external validity (both in transporting and scaling up policy) can be understood as arising from an interaction between a policy’s theory of change and a dimension of the context in which it is being implemented. The paper surveys existing approaches to analyzing external validity, and suggests that there has been more focus on the generalizability of impact evaluation results than on the applicability of evidence to specific contexts. To help fill this gap, the study develops a method of “mechanism mapping” that maps a policy’s theory of change against salient contextual assumptions to identify external validity problems and suggest appropriate policy adaptations. In deciding whether and how to adapt a policy, there is a fundamental informational trade-off between the strength of evidence on the policy from other contexts and the policy maker’s information about the local context.
随着世界各地影响评估的数量不断增加,如何在政策制定过程中应用这些证据的问题可以说已经成为循证政策制定的主要挑战。政策制定者如何预测一项政策在其背景下是否会产生与其他地方相同的影响,这应该如何影响政策的设计和实施?本文认为,外部有效性的失败(包括在运输和扩大政策方面)可以被理解为是由政策的变化理论和实施政策的背景维度之间的相互作用引起的。本文调查了现有的外部有效性分析方法,并表明人们更关注影响评估结果的可推广性,而不是证据对特定背景的适用性。为了填补这一空白,该研究开发了一种“机制映射”方法,将政策的变化理论与显著的背景假设进行映射,以识别外部有效性问题并提出适当的政策调整建议。在决定是否以及如何调整政策时,来自其他背景的政策证据的强度与决策者关于当地背景的信息之间存在根本的信息权衡。
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引用次数: 26
What Explains Uneven Female Labor Force Participation Levels and Trends in Developing Countries? 如何解释发展中国家女性劳动力参与水平和趋势的不平衡?
IF 8.1 1区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2019-08-01 DOI: 10.1093/WBRO/LKZ005
Stephan Klasen
Rapid fertility decline, a strong expansion of female education, and favorable economic conditions should have promoted female labor force participation in developing countries. Yet trends in female labor force participation rates (FLFP) have been quite heterogeneous, rising strongly in Latin America and stagnating in many other regions, while improvements were modest in the Middle East and female participation even fell in South Asia. These trends are inconsistent with secular theories such as the feminization U hypothesis but point to an interplay of initial conditions, economic structure, structural change, and persistent gender norms and values. We find that differences in levels are heavily affected by historical differences in economic structure that circumscribe women's economic opportunities still today. Shocks can bring about drastic changes, with the experience of socialism being the most important shock to women's labor force participation. Trends are heavily affected by how much women's labor force participation depends on their household's economic conditions, how jobs deemed appropriate for more educated women are growing relative to the supply of more educated women, whether growth strategies are promoting female employment, and to what extent women are able to break down occupational barriers within the sectors where women predominantly work.
在发展中国家,生育率的迅速下降、女性教育的大力普及以及有利的经济条件本应促进女性劳动力的参与。然而,女性劳动力参与率的趋势各不相同,在拉丁美洲上升强劲,在许多其他地区停滞不前,而中东的改善幅度不大,南亚的女性参与率甚至下降。这些趋势与诸如女性化U假说等世俗理论不一致,但指出了初始条件、经济结构、结构变化和持久的性别规范和价值观的相互作用。我们发现,这些水平的差异在很大程度上受到历史上经济结构差异的影响,这种差异至今仍限制着妇女的经济机会。冲击可以带来剧烈的变化,社会主义经验是对女性劳动力参与最重要的冲击。妇女的劳动力参与在多大程度上取决于其家庭的经济条件,被认为适合受教育程度较高的妇女的工作相对于受教育程度较高的妇女的供应如何增加,增长战略是否正在促进妇女就业,以及妇女能够在多大程度上打破妇女主要工作的部门内的职业障碍,这些都对趋势产生重大影响。
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引用次数: 152
Globalization and Structural Change around the World, 1985–2015 全球化与全球结构变化,1985-2015
IF 8.1 1区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2019-02-01 DOI: 10.1093/WBRO/LKY009
A. Wood
Structural change is a vital element of successful development. Between 1985 and 2015, however, falling barriers to trade and transfer of technology shifted sectoral structures in different directions in different countries by intensifying endowment-related specialization. In skill-abundant developed countries, manufacturing became more skill-intensive and employed fewer workers. In land-scarce developing East Asia, labor-intensive manufacturing expanded, especially and hugely in China. In land-abundant Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East, by contrast, manufacturing shares fell, while in land-scarce South Asia labor-intensive manufacturing was constrained by low literacy and inadequate infrastructure. This pattern of structural change contributed to higher average growth rates during this period in land-scarce than in land-abundant developing countries. Future changes in sectoral structures and growth rates will continue to be shaped by differences among countries in land abundance and skill supplies that matter for development policy choices.
结构变革是成功发展的重要因素。然而,1985年至2015年间,贸易壁垒的下降和技术转让通过加强与禀赋相关的专业化,使不同国家的部门结构向不同方向转移。在技能丰富的发达国家,制造业变得更加技能密集,雇佣的工人更少。在土地稀缺的东亚发展中国家,劳动密集型制造业得到了扩张,尤其是在中国。相比之下,在土地丰富的非洲、拉丁美洲和中东,制造业份额下降,而在土地稀缺的南亚,劳动密集型制造业受到识字率低和基础设施不足的制约。这种结构变化的模式使这一时期土地稀少的发展中国家的平均增长率高于土地丰富的发展中国家。部门结构和增长率的未来变化将继续受到国家间土地丰富性和技能供应差异的影响,这对发展政策的选择至关重要。
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引用次数: 9
The World Bank Human Capital Index: A Guide 世界银行人力资本指数:指南
IF 8.1 1区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2019-02-01 DOI: 10.1093/WBRO/LKZ001
Aart C. Kraay
This paper provides a guide to the new World Bank Human Capital Index (HCI), situating its methodology in the context of the development accounting literature. The HCI combines indicators of health and education into a measure of the human capital that a child born today can expect to achieve by her 18th birthday, given the risks of poor education and health that prevail in the country where she lives. The HCI is measured in units of productivity relative to a benchmark of complete education and full health, and ranges from 0 to 1. A value ofon the HCI indicates that a child born today can expect to be onlypercent as productive as a future worker as she would be if she enjoyed complete education and full health.
本文为新的世界银行人力资本指数(HCI)提供了一个指南,将其方法置于发展会计文献的背景下。HCI将健康和教育指标结合起来,衡量今天出生的孩子在18岁生日前有望实现的人力资本,因为她所在国家普遍存在教育和健康状况不佳的风险。HCI是以生产力为单位,相对于完全教育和完全健康的基准来衡量的,范围从0到1。HCI的值表明,今天出生的孩子的生产力只有未来工人的%,如果她享受完整的教育和健康的话。
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引用次数: 39
Changing Behavioral Patterns Related to Maternity and Childbirth in Rural and Poor Populations: A Critical Review 在农村和贫困人口中改变与生育有关的行为模式:一个重要的回顾
IF 8.1 1区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2019-02-01 DOI: 10.1093/WBRO/LKY008
Ariadna García-Prado
While life expectancy has increased worldwide in recent decades, dramatic health inequalities persist across and within countries and between different population groups. Maternal mortality in low-...
虽然近几十年来世界各地的预期寿命有所增加,但国家之间和国家内部以及不同人口群体之间仍然存在严重的健康不平等现象。产妇死亡率低…
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引用次数: 8
Long-Term Impacts of Conditional Cash Transfers: Review of the Evidence 有条件现金转移的长期影响:证据审查
IF 8.1 1区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2019-02-01 DOI: 10.1093/WBRO/LKY005
T. Millán, T. Barham, K. Macours, J. Maluccio, M. Stampini
Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) programs, started in the late 1990s in Latin America, have become the antipoverty program of choice in many developing countries in the region and beyond. This paper reviews the literature on their long-term impacts on human capital and related outcomes observed after children have reached a later stage of their life cycle, focusing on two life-cycle transitions. The first includes children exposed to CCTs in utero or during early childhood who have reached school ages. The second includes children exposed to CCTs during school ages who have reached young adulthood. Most studies find positive long-term effects on schooling, but fewer find positive impacts on cognitive skills, learning, or socio-emotional skills. Impacts on employment and earnings are mixed, possibly because former beneficiaries were often still too young. A number of studies find estimates that are not statistically different from zero, but for which it is often not possible to be confident that this is due to an actual lack of impact rather than to the methodological challenges facing all long-term evaluations. Developing further opportunities for analyses with rigorous identification strategies for the measurement of long-term impacts should be high on the research agenda. As original beneficiaries age, this should also be increasingly possible, and indeed important before concluding whether or not CCTs lead to sustainable poverty reduction.
20世纪90年代末在拉丁美洲启动的有条件现金转移(CCT)计划已成为该地区及其他许多发展中国家的反贫困计划。本文回顾了关于儿童进入生命周期后期后对人力资本的长期影响和相关结果的文献,重点关注两个生命周期的转变。第一种包括在子宫内或儿童早期接触CCTs的儿童,这些儿童已达到上学年龄。第二类包括在学龄期间接触CCTs的儿童,他们已经成年。大多数研究发现对学校教育有积极的长期影响,但很少有研究发现对认知技能、学习或社会情感技能有积极影响。对就业和收入的影响是喜忧参半的,可能是因为以前的受益人往往还太年轻。许多研究发现,估计数在统计上与零没有差异,但通常不可能确信这是由于实际缺乏影响,而不是由于所有长期评估面临的方法挑战。开发进一步的机会进行分析,并制定严格的识别策略来衡量长期影响,这应该是研究议程上的首要任务。随着原始受益人年龄的增长,这也应该越来越有可能,而且在得出CCTs是否能导致可持续减贫的结论之前,这一点确实很重要。
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引用次数: 103
Myth-Busting? Confronting Six Common Perceptions about Unconditional Cash Transfers as a Poverty Reduction Strategy in Africa 打破神话?直面关于无条件现金转移作为非洲减贫战略的六种常见看法
IF 8.1 1区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2018-08-01 DOI: 10.1093/wbro/lky003
S. Handa, S. Daidone, Amber Peterman, B. Davis, Audrey Pereira, T. Palermo, J. Yablonski
This paper summarizes evidence on six perceptions associated with cash transfer programming, using eight rigorous evaluations conducted on large-scale government unconditional cash transfers in sub-Saharan Africa under the Transfer Project. Specifically, it investigates if transfers: 1) induce higher spending on alcohol or tobacco; 2) are fully consumed (rather than invested); 3) create dependency (reduce participation in productive activities); 4) increase fertility; 5) lead to negative community-level economic impacts (including price distortion and inflation); and 6) are fiscally unsustainable. The paper presents evidence refuting each claim, leading to the conclusion that these perceptions—insofar as they are utilized in policy debates—undercut potential improvements in well-being and livelihood strengthening among the poor, which these programs can bring about in sub-Saharan Africa, and globally. It concludes by underscoring outstanding research gaps and policy implications for the continued expansion of unconditional cash transfers in the region and beyond.
本文总结了与现金转移方案有关的六种看法的证据,使用了根据转移项目对撒哈拉以南非洲大规模政府无条件现金转移进行的八项严格评估。具体而言,它调查转移是否:1)导致更高的烟酒支出;2) 被充分消费(而不是投资);3) 创造依赖性(减少对生产活动的参与);4) 提高生育率;5) 导致社区层面的负面经济影响(包括价格扭曲和通货膨胀);和6)在财政上不可持续。这篇论文提供了反驳每一种说法的证据,得出的结论是,这些看法——就其在政策辩论中的使用而言——削弱了穷人福祉和生计增强的潜在改善,而这些计划可以在撒哈拉以南非洲和全球范围内带来这些改善。报告最后强调了尚未解决的研究差距以及对该地区及其他地区继续扩大无条件现金转移的政策影响。
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引用次数: 84
Mobile Money and the Economy: A Review of the Evidence 移动货币与经济:证据综述
IF 8.1 1区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2018-08-01 DOI: 10.1093/WBRO/LKY001
J. Aron
Mobile money is a recent innovation that provides financial transaction services via mobile phone, including to the unbanked global poor. The technology has spread rapidly in the developing world, ...
移动货币是最近的一项创新,通过手机提供金融交易服务,包括向没有银行账户的全球穷人提供服务。这项技术在发展中国家迅速普及。。。
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引用次数: 97
A Mixed-Method Review of Cash Transfers and Intimate Partner Violence in Low- and Middle-Income Countries 低收入和中等收入国家现金转移和亲密伴侣暴力的混合方法研究
IF 8.1 1区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2018-03-23 DOI: 10.1093/WBRO/LKY002
A. Buller, Amber Peterman, M. Ranganathan, A. Bleile, Melissa Hidrobo, L. Heise
There is increasing evidence that cash transfer (CT) programs decrease intimate partner violence (IPV); however, little is known about how CTs achieve this impact. We conducted a mixed method review of studies in low- and middle-income countries. Fourteen quantitative and nine qualitative studies met our inclusion criteria, of which eleven and six respectively demonstrated evidence that CTs decrease IPV. We found little support for increases in IPV, with only two studies showing overall mixed or adverse impacts. Drawing on these studies, as well as related bodies of evidence, we developed a program theory proposing three pathways through which CT could impact IPV: 1) Economic security and emotional wellbeing, 2) intra-household conflict, and 3) women’s empowerment. The economic security and wellbeing pathway hypothesizes decreases in IPV, while the other two pathways have ambiguous effects depending on program design features and behavioural responses to program components. Future studies should improve IPV measurement, empirical analysis of program mechanisms, and fill regional gaps. Program framing and complementary activities, including those with the ability to shift intra-household power relations are likely to be important design features for understanding how to maximize and leverage the impact of CTs for reducing IPV, and mitigating potential adverse impacts.
越来越多的证据表明,现金转移(CT)计划减少亲密伴侣暴力(IPV);然而,人们对ct如何达到这种效果知之甚少。我们对低收入和中等收入国家的研究进行了混合方法综述。14项定量研究和9项定性研究符合我们的纳入标准,其中11项和6项分别证明了ct降低IPV的证据。我们几乎没有发现支持IPV增加的证据,只有两项研究显示了总体混合或不利的影响。根据这些研究以及相关的证据,我们发展了一个程序理论,提出了CT影响IPV的三种途径:1)经济安全和情感健康,2)家庭内部冲突,3)妇女赋权。经济安全和福利途径假设IPV减少,而其他两个途径的影响模糊,这取决于项目设计特征和对项目组成部分的行为反应。未来的研究应完善IPV测量、实证分析规划机制、填补区域空白。规划框架和补充活动,包括那些能够改变家庭内部权力关系的活动,可能是理解如何最大化和利用ct的影响以减少IPV和减轻潜在不利影响的重要设计特征。
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引用次数: 186
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