Journal of Macroeconomics最新文献

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Capital account liberalization, production heterogeneity, and belief-driven fluctuations in financial-constrained economies 资本账户自由化、生产异质性和金融约束经济体中信念驱动的波动

IF 1.5 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Macroeconomics

Pub Date : 2025-08-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103715

Takuma Kunieda , Kazuo Nishimura

To investigate the macroeconomic effects of capital account liberalization, we apply a dynamic general equilibrium model with two production sectors. In contrast to the literature on belief-driven sunspot fluctuations caused by production externalities, our model does not assume any production externalities. In our model, agents face financial constraints and production heterogeneity. The financial constraints and agents’ production heterogeneity are sources of dynamic inefficiency. Although indeterminacy of equilibrium and belief-driven sunspot fluctuations never occur in the closed economy, dynamic inefficiency combined with a negative foreign asset in the steady state produces indeterminacy in the small open economy if financial constraints are fully relaxed under the condition that the investment goods sector is more labor intensive than the consumption goods sector.

为了研究资本账户自由化的宏观经济效应，我们采用了一个包含两个生产部门的动态一般均衡模型。与关于生产外部性引起的信念驱动的太阳黑子波动的文献相反，我们的模型没有假设任何生产外部性。在我们的模型中，代理人面临财务约束和产品异质性。资金约束和代理人的生产异质性是动态效率低下的根源。虽然均衡的不确定性和由信念驱动的太阳黑子波动从未在封闭经济中发生，但如果在投资品部门比消费品部门劳动密集程度更高的条件下完全放松金融约束，那么动态的低效率加上稳定状态下的负外国资产，就会在小型开放经济中产生不确定性。

引用次数: 0

Intensive and extensive margins of labor adjustment with non-regular employment 劳动调整的密集和粗放边际与非正规就业

IF 1.5 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Macroeconomics

Pub Date : 2025-08-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103704

Tetsuaki Takano

This study investigates labor adjustments in firms over the business cycle, focusing on intensive and extensive margins, including regular and non-regular employment. I present a set of stylized facts that the intensive margin and job heterogeneity matter for labor adjustments. I develop a search-matching model incorporating these aspects. The propagation effects of TFP shocks on the labor market are qualitatively consistent with empirical findings. Moreover, the model realistically simulates macroeconomic volatility. This volatility is generated by the introduction of the intensive margin, while that of non-regular jobs has little impact on amplifying fluctuations.

本研究考察了企业在经济周期中的劳动力调整，重点关注集约化和外延化利润，包括正规和非正规就业。我提出了一组程式化的事实，即密集边际和工作异质性对劳动力调整很重要。我开发了一个包含这些方面的搜索匹配模型。TFP冲击对劳动力市场的传播效应与实证结果在质量上是一致的。此外，该模型真实地模拟了宏观经济波动。这种波动是由于引入了集约保证金而产生的，而非正规工作的波动对放大波动的影响很小。

引用次数: 0

Monetary policy under fiscal stress: A forward-looking analysis of fiscal dominance 财政压力下的货币政策：财政主导权的前瞻性分析

IF 1.5 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Macroeconomics

Pub Date : 2025-08-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103701

Donna Faye E. Bajaro , Jaqueson K. Galimberti , Irfan A. Qureshi

Subdued economic activity and low tax revenues, especially during crises, drive borrowing and increase public debt. Central banks may face pressure to deviate from policy targets during these periods to ease the debt burden. Under fiscal dominance, debt sustainability relies on low interest rates and high inflation rather than consolidation. This paper empirically tests the presence of fiscal dominance using forward-looking Taylor rules and data from 52 countries over three decades. The results detect fiscal dominance, with stronger effects in “de jure” inflation-targeting emerging economies with low central bank independence, especially those without debt rules and with high debt-to-GDP ratios. Emerging economies with high foreign currency-denominated debt are further affected by exchange rate debt valuation effects, and fiscal dominance leads their central banks to follow exchange rate stabilization policies. Since 2022–23, interest rate responses to fiscal imbalances have strengthened, posing challenges for future policy.

低迷的经济活动和低税收，尤其是在危机期间，会推动借贷和增加公共债务。在此期间，各国央行可能面临偏离政策目标以减轻债务负担的压力。在财政主导下，债务的可持续性依赖于低利率和高通胀，而不是财政整顿。本文利用前瞻性的泰勒规则和52个国家30年来的数据，对财政主导地位的存在进行了实证检验。研究结果发现，财政主导作用在央行独立性较低、“法定”以通胀为目标的新兴经济体中具有更强的影响，尤其是那些没有债务规则、债务与gdp之比较高的经济体。外币计价债务较高的新兴经济体进一步受到汇率债务估值效应的影响，财政优势导致其央行遵循汇率稳定政策。自2022-23年以来，利率对财政失衡的反应有所加强，给未来政策带来了挑战。

引用次数: 0

Does monetary policy impact innovation? Evidence from Australian Administrative Data 货币政策会影响创新吗？来自澳大利亚行政数据的证据

IF 1.5 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Macroeconomics

Pub Date : 2025-08-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103706

Omer Majeed , Jonathan Hambur , Robert Breunig

We examine whether monetary policy affects innovative activity and productivity in Australia. As a small open economy that primarily imports and adopts existing technology, research on Australia complements previous research on the United States. While contractionary policy reduces aggregate research and development spending, and in turn productivity, the effects appear more short-lived compared to the United States. When using survey measures of innovation that capture adoption, we find heterogenous responses. Small firms decrease innovation in response to contractionary monetary policy shocks, whereas large firms increase innovation. This heterogeneity may reflect differing exposures to the demand and financial constraint channels of monetary policy. United States monetary policy affects Australian firms’ innovation, at least in part by influencing global economic conditions.

我们研究货币政策是否会影响澳大利亚的创新活动和生产力。作为一个以进口和采用现有技术为主的小型开放经济体，对澳大利亚的研究是对以往对美国研究的补充。虽然紧缩政策减少了总体研发支出，进而降低了生产率，但与美国相比，这种影响似乎更短暂。当使用衡量创新的调查方法时，我们发现了不同的反应。小企业在应对紧缩货币政策冲击时减少创新，而大企业则增加创新。这种异质性可能反映了对货币政策的需求和金融约束渠道的不同暴露。美国的货币政策至少在一定程度上通过影响全球经济状况影响了澳大利亚公司的创新。

引用次数: 0

Monetary regimes and regional economies: A counterfactual perspective from two euro opt-outs 货币制度和区域经济：从两个选择退出欧元区的反事实视角

IF 1.5 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Macroeconomics

Pub Date : 2025-07-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103700

Sang-Wook (Stanley) Cho , Sally Wong

This paper investigates the counterfactual impact of an alternative monetary regime on regional income and disparity within Denmark and Sweden, two EU countries that opted out of the euro at its introduction in 1999, using the synthetic control method. Our findings reveal that counterfactual income trajectories would have been highly heterogeneous: while most Danish regions would have experienced modest losses or gains, some Swedish regions might have recorded lower income levels under the counterfactual, although the evidence is mixed and concentrated in a small number of non-capital regions. We further analyze these outcomes in light of standard theories of monetary unions, finding that regions more open to trade and with greater capital intensity would have been more likely to benefit. Finally, we assess the implications for regional inequality, showing that the current monetary regime was associated with reduced regional income disparities in Denmark and produced mixed effects in Sweden.

本文使用综合控制方法研究了替代货币制度对丹麦和瑞典这两个在1999年引入欧元时选择退出的欧盟国家的区域收入和差距的反事实影响。我们的研究结果表明，反事实的收入轨迹将是高度异质性的：虽然大多数丹麦地区将经历适度的损失或收益，但一些瑞典地区可能在反事实的情况下记录了较低的收入水平，尽管证据是混合的，并且集中在少数非首都地区。我们根据货币联盟的标准理论进一步分析了这些结果，发现对贸易更开放、资本密集度更高的地区更有可能受益。最后，我们评估了对地区不平等的影响，表明当前的货币制度与丹麦地区收入差距的缩小有关，并在瑞典产生了混合效应。

引用次数: 0

What caused the post-pandemic inflation in France? An analysis using the Bernanke–Blanchard model 是什么导致了大流行后法国的通货膨胀？使用贝南克-布兰查德模型的分析

IF 1.3 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Macroeconomics

Pub Date : 2025-07-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103699

Pierre Aldama , Hervé Le Bihan , Claire Le Gall

We analyse post-pandemic inflation in France using the Bernanke–Blanchard semi-structural model of wage and price inflation. This model builds on a wage Phillips curve, a mark-up price-setting equation and adaptive equations for short- and long-run inflation expectations. Wage and price inflation as well as inflation expectations are modelled as functions of a labour market slack indicator (the vacancies-to-unemployed ratio), energy and food price shocks, a measure of supply-chain disruptions (“shortages”) and other exogenous factors (trend productivity, Covid lockdowns/re-openings). We estimate the model from the 1990s to 2023Q2 and derive impulse response functions and historical decomposition of endogenous variables during the pandemic era. As BB for the US, we find that the main driver of the post-pandemic inflation was the energy price shocks at first, followed by the food price shocks. Labour market conditions initially played a minor role in inflation, although the substantial increase in wage inflation observed between 2021Q4 and 2023Q2 can be attributed predominantly to the tightening of the labour market.

我们使用贝南克-布兰查德工资和价格通胀的半结构模型分析了大流行后法国的通胀。该模型建立在工资菲利普斯曲线、加价设定方程以及短期和长期通胀预期自适应方程的基础上。工资和价格通胀以及通胀预期被建模为劳动力市场闲置指标（空缺与失业比率）、能源和食品价格冲击、供应链中断（“短缺”）的衡量标准以及其他外生因素（趋势生产率、新冠肺炎疫情封锁/重新开放）的函数。我们估计了从20世纪90年代到2023Q2的模型，并推导了大流行时期内生变量的脉冲响应函数和历史分解。作为美国的BB级，我们发现，疫情后通胀的主要驱动因素首先是能源价格冲击，其次是食品价格冲击。劳动力市场状况最初对通胀的影响较小，尽管在2021Q4和2023Q2之间观察到的工资通胀大幅增长主要归因于劳动力市场的紧缩。

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引用次数: 0

Identifying monetary policy shocks through external constraints 通过外部约束识别货币政策冲击

IF 1.3 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Macroeconomics

Pub Date : 2025-07-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103696

Francesco Fusari

This paper proposes a new strategy for the identification of monetary policy shocks in structural vector autoregressions (SVARs). It combines sign restrictions on the impulse responses with external constraints on high-frequency surprises and central bank’s macroeconomic projections. I use this approach to evaluate the transmission of US monetary policy over the period 1965–2007. First, I find that contractionary monetary policy shocks unequivocally decrease output, sharpening the ambiguous implications of standard sign-restricted SVARs. Second, I show that these findings, differently from those obtained under alternative methodologies, remain valid even when inference is performed using a prior-robust Bayesian algorithm. Furthermore, my identification strategy is successful in recovering monetary shocks and monetary policy equations that are coherent, respectively, with narrative sign restrictions and restrictions on the systematic component of monetary policy. Finally, I show that this framework ensures great flexibility and is particularly convenient for the joint identification of monetary policy and central bank information shocks.

本文提出了一种识别结构向量自回归（SVARs）中货币政策冲击的新策略。它将脉冲响应的符号限制与高频意外和央行宏观经济预测的外部约束结合起来。我用这种方法来评估1965年至2007年期间美国货币政策的传导。首先，我发现紧缩的货币政策冲击明确地减少了产出，使标准符号限制的svar的模糊含义更加尖锐。其次，我表明，这些发现不同于在其他方法下获得的发现，即使在使用先验鲁棒贝叶斯算法进行推理时仍然有效。此外，我的识别策略成功地恢复了货币冲击和货币政策方程，它们分别具有叙事符号限制和对货币政策系统成分的限制。最后，我证明了这个框架确保了很大的灵活性，特别便于货币政策和央行信息冲击的联合识别。

引用次数: 0

Demand, wealth inequality and the business cycle 需求、财富不平等和商业周期

IF 1.3 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Macroeconomics

Pub Date : 2025-07-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103693

Lilia Cavallari , Stefano D’Addona , Paolo Porchia

We consider a flexible price continuous-time DSGE model of a closed economy populated by heterogeneous households subject to uninsurable idiosyncratic income risk and aggregate TFP shocks. The economy produces a variety of imperfectly substitutable final goods. Our main innovation is a rich representation of household consumption and saving behavior allowing for a time-varying elasticity of substitution across varieties. Specifically, we consider a utility function displaying Increasing Elasticity of Substitution (IES). We provide a convenient approach to handle the complex dynamic programming problem implied by income heterogeneity, aggregate shocks and non-homothetic preferences. We show that IES preferences help to replicate important features of the wealth distribution observed in the data together with a plausible macroeconomic dynamics.

我们考虑一个由异质家庭组成的封闭经济的灵活价格连续时间DSGE模型，这些家庭受到不可保险的特殊收入风险和总TFP冲击的影响。经济生产出各种不完全可替代的最终产品。我们的主要创新是家庭消费和储蓄行为的丰富表示，允许跨品种的时变替代弹性。具体来说，我们考虑一个显示递增替代弹性（IES）的效用函数。我们提供了一个方便的方法来处理复杂的动态规划问题隐含的收入异质性，总冲击和非同质偏好。我们表明，IES偏好有助于复制数据中观察到的财富分配的重要特征，以及合理的宏观经济动态。

引用次数: 0

Corporate finance and interest rate policy 公司财务和利率政策

IF 1.3 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Macroeconomics

Pub Date : 2025-07-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103698

Alessandro Piergallini

I develop flexible- and sticky-price general equilibrium models that embody endogenous corporate financing decisions affecting firm value due to distortionary taxes. Nominal interest-rate variations impact the costs of debt and equity capital asymmetrically and thereby induce firms to modify the financial structure, altering the gap between the optimization-based weighted average cost of capital and the real interest rate. Under these circumstances, I characterize conditions under which rules-based monetary policies that set the nominal interest rate as an increasing function of the inflation rate induce aggregate stability in the form of a unique stable equilibrium. In contrast to what is commonly argued, I demonstrate that both passive interest rate policies, which underreact to inflation, and mildly active interest rate policies, which overreact to inflation but below a threshold reflecting both tax and capital structures, ensure determinacy of equilibrium. Conversely, excessively aggressive inflation-fighting monetary actions are destabilizing in the presence of price stickiness by generating either multiple equilibria or the nonexistence of stable equilibria. Under the stabilizing monetary regimes, I prove that macroeconomic dynamics following either interest rate normalization or temporary monetary tightening critically depend upon the tax code and the steady-state debt-equity ratio.

我开发了灵活价格和粘性价格一般均衡模型，这些模型体现了由于扭曲性税收而影响公司价值的内生企业融资决策。名义利率变化对债务和权益资本成本的影响是不对称的，从而促使企业调整财务结构，改变基于优化的加权平均资本成本与实际利率之间的差距。在这种情况下，我描述了基于规则的货币政策的条件，这些货币政策将名义利率设定为通货膨胀率的递增函数，从而以独特的稳定均衡形式诱导总体稳定。与通常的观点相反，我证明了被动利率政策（对通胀反应不足）和温和积极利率政策（对通胀反应过度，但低于反映税收和资本结构的阈值）都能确保均衡的确定性。相反，在价格粘性存在的情况下，过度激进的抗通胀货币行动会产生多重均衡或不存在稳定均衡，从而破坏稳定。在稳定的货币制度下，我证明了在利率正常化或临时货币紧缩之后的宏观经济动态严重依赖于税法和稳定的债务-权益比率。

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引用次数: 0

Leading patent breadth, endogenous quality choice, and economic growth 领先专利广度、内生质量选择与经济增长

IF 1.3 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Macroeconomics

Pub Date : 2025-06-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103697

Keishun Suzuki, Shin Kishimoto

O’Donoghue and Zweimüller (2004, J. Econ. Growth 9(1), 81-123), a seminal work, showed that broadening leading breadth in patent protection can stimulate innovation. However, the empirical literature has consistently found skeptical results on the positive effect. To fill the gap, we build another framework where the quality improvement size is derived as an interior solution. In our model, broadening leading breadth can negatively affect innovation because each innovator is incentivized to free-ride the other innovators’ quality improvements. As a further analysis, we quantitatively investigate the growth effect of intervention in patent licensing negotiations using two different profit division rules derived from a cooperative game. We find that intervention in patent licensing negotiations increases the growth rate and stabilizes the economy.

O 'Donoghue and zweim ller （2004， J. Econ）。Growth 9(1), 81-123)是一项开创性的工作，表明拓宽专利保护的领先广度可以刺激创新。然而，实证文献一直对其积极作用持怀疑态度。为了填补这个空白，我们建立了另一个框架，其中质量改进的大小是作为内部解决方案派生出来的。在我们的模型中，扩大领先宽度会对创新产生负面影响，因为每个创新者都被激励去免费乘坐其他创新者的质量改进。作为进一步的分析，我们定量研究了干预在专利许可谈判中的增长效应，采用了两种不同的合作博弈的利润分配规则。我们发现，对专利许可谈判的干预提高了增长率，稳定了经济。

引用次数: 0

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