Journal of Macroeconomics最新文献

英文中文

Bilateral output synchronization in a globalized world: A macroeconomic evaluation of the third-country effect 全球化世界中的双边产出同步：第三国效应的宏观经济评价

IF 1.3 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Macroeconomics

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-02-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103665

Jean-Sébastien Pentecôte , Jean-Christophe Poutineau , Tovonony Razafindrabe , Fabien Rondeau

This paper examines the influence of third countries on the output synchronization between two trading partners. We first address this issue in a three-country Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model, where trade in intermediate goods operates at the intensive and extensive margins. We find that adding a third trading partner strengthens the output co-movement between two countries through two channels: a trade channel, driven by a higher total number of varieties traded that makes production processes more homogeneous across countries, and a macroeconomic channel where the third country exerts a stabilizing effect on the intensive and extensive margins of production in the other two countries. Applying Jordà’s local projections to 34 countries from 1979Q2 to 2019Q4, we find that the inclusion of a third partner raises the output co-movement in 75% of cases on average, with a median rise of 54% on average compared to the two-country case. Our results are robust to (i) an alternative identification of productivity shocks and (ii) the inclusion of extensive trade margins as control variables. Those stylized facts of upward output synchronization resulting from the explicit inclusion of a third trading partner are consistent with our theoretical predictions.

本文考察了第三国对贸易伙伴间产出同步的影响。我们首先在一个三国动态随机一般均衡模型中解决了这个问题，其中中间产品的贸易在集约化和外延化的边际上运行。我们发现，增加第三个贸易伙伴通过两个渠道加强了两国之间的产出协同运动：一个是贸易渠道，由更高的交易品种总数驱动，使各国的生产过程更加同质化；另一个是宏观经济渠道，其中第三国对其他两国的集约和粗放生产边际发挥稳定作用。将jord的本地预测应用于1979年第二季度至2019年第四季度的34个国家，我们发现，在平均75%的情况下，第三个合作伙伴的加入提高了产出共同运动，与两个国家的情况相比，中位数平均增加了54%。我们的结果对于(i)生产率冲击的替代识别和（ii）广泛的贸易利润率作为控制变量的包含是稳健的。由于明确包含第三个贸易伙伴而导致的产出向上同步的程式化事实与我们的理论预测一致。

{"title":"Bilateral output synchronization in a globalized world: A macroeconomic evaluation of the third-country effect","authors":"Jean-Sébastien Pentecôte , Jean-Christophe Poutineau , Tovonony Razafindrabe , Fabien Rondeau","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103665","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103665","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the influence of third countries on the output synchronization between two trading partners. We first address this issue in a three-country Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model, where trade in intermediate goods operates at the intensive and extensive margins. We find that adding a third trading partner strengthens the output co-movement between two countries through two channels: a trade channel, driven by a higher total number of varieties traded that makes production processes more homogeneous across countries, and a macroeconomic channel where the third country exerts a stabilizing effect on the intensive and extensive margins of production in the other two countries. Applying Jordà’s local projections to 34 countries from 1979Q2 to 2019Q4, we find that the inclusion of a third partner raises the output co-movement in 75% of cases on average, with a median rise of 54% on average compared to the two-country case. Our results are robust to (i) an alternative identification of productivity shocks and (ii) the inclusion of extensive trade margins as control variables. Those stylized facts of upward output synchronization resulting from the explicit inclusion of a third trading partner are consistent with our theoretical predictions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"84 ","pages":"Article 103665"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143474724","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Do commitment and enforcement of fiscal rules enhance fiscal stability? Evidence from European Union countries 财政规则的承诺和执行是否能增强财政稳定？来自欧盟国家的证据

IF 1.3 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Macroeconomics

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-02-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103664

Antonia López-Villavicencio, Jocelyne Zoumenou

We study the impact of fiscal rules on EU countries’ fiscal stability, particularly within the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) framework. By rigorously addressing endogeneity concerns, we show that, among all the rules imposed by the SGP, compliance with budget balance rules (BBR) and to a lesser extent, deficit rules, are the only ones that contribute to fiscal stability. However, countries that comply with other targets – either individually, simultaneously, or by adopting a constitutional BBR – do not perform better than those that comply exclusively with the budget balance rule. Finally, our results suggest that strong fiscal rules are not necessary to achieve better fiscal discipline.

我们研究了财政规则对欧盟国家财政稳定的影响，特别是在《稳定与增长公约》（SGP）框架下。通过严格解决内生性问题，我们表明，在SGP强加的所有规则中，遵守预算平衡规则（BBR）以及较小程度上的赤字规则是唯一有助于财政稳定的规则。然而，遵守其他目标的国家——无论是单独遵守、同时遵守，还是采用宪法规定的BBR——并不比那些只遵守预算平衡规则的国家表现得更好。最后，我们的研究结果表明，要实现更好的财政纪律，并不需要强有力的财政规则。

引用次数: 0

Automation and job polarization 自动化与工作极化

IF 1.3 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Macroeconomics

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103673

Chia-Hui Lu

By introducing the development of automation into a labor search model with differently skilled workers, this paper finds that increased automation of production processes leads to job polarization. When there is an increase in the degree to which automation and middle-skilled labor can replace each other, firms producing final goods will use automation in place of human labor rather than the other way around. In economies where people can acquire skills and make endogenous occupational choices, government subsidies to cover the learning costs of high-skilled labor enhance output production and household welfare, but increase the degree of job polarization. Furthermore, we find that reducing job polarization is not necessarily beneficial for macroeconomic performance when the government subsidizes the cost of learning for household members to become middle-skilled workers.

通过将自动化的发展引入具有不同技能工人的劳动力搜索模型，本文发现生产过程自动化程度的提高导致了工作两极分化。当自动化和中等技能劳动力相互替代的程度提高时，生产最终产品的公司将使用自动化来代替人力劳动，而不是相反。在人们能够获得技能并做出内生职业选择的经济体中，政府补贴支付高技能劳动力的学习成本提高了产出和家庭福利，但增加了就业两极分化的程度。此外，我们发现，当政府补贴家庭成员成为中等技能工人的学习成本时，减少工作两极分化并不一定有利于宏观经济绩效。

引用次数: 0

Fiscal consolidations in developing countries with a Latin America focus: The role of inequality, informality and corruption 以拉丁美洲为重点的发展中国家财政整顿：不平等、不拘形式和腐败的作用

IF 1.3 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Macroeconomics

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103675

João Tovar Jalles , Carola Pessino

Widening income disparities, higher corruption and larger informality in many emerging market and developing economies (EMDE) including Latin America, all with pressing and mounting fiscal problems, have rekindled interest in the empirical analysis of the key factors determining the occurrence of fiscal consolidations. Using discrete choice models, this paper examines the drivers of fiscal consolidation episodes in a sample of 148 EMDE between 1980 and 2019 with a focus on Latin America. Inequality does not seem to drive consolidations in Latin America, while more informality (corruption) increases (decreases) the probability of their occurrence. In turn, when examining the drivers of successful consolidations, larger income inequality (informality) seems to act as a boost (hinderance) for successful consolidations. Results are robust to several sensitivity and robustness tests.

在包括拉丁美洲在内的许多新兴市场和发展中经济体（EMDE），不断扩大的收入差距、更高的腐败和更大的不正性，都面临着紧迫和日益严重的财政问题，这重新激起了人们对决定财政整顿发生的关键因素的实证分析的兴趣。本文使用离散选择模型，对1980年至2019年间148个新兴市场经济体的财政整顿事件的驱动因素进行了研究，并以拉丁美洲为重点。不平等似乎并没有推动拉丁美洲的整合，而更多的非正式性（腐败）增加（减少）了整合发生的可能性。反过来，在检查成功整合的驱动因素时，更大的收入不平等（非正式性）似乎对成功整合起到了促进（阻碍）作用。结果对若干敏感性和稳健性测试具有稳健性。

引用次数: 0

Cautionary tales of fat tails 肥尾的警世故事

IF 1.3 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Macroeconomics

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103679

Chetan Dave , Scott J. Dressler , Samreen Malik

Distributions of GDP fluctuations that exhibit fat tails shed doubt on the suitability of Normal distributions in empirical and theoretical business-cycle analyses. We document: (i) fat tails in US output fluctuations are not a pervading characteristic of the entire post-war sample, and appear in subsamples exhibiting declines in cyclical and trend volatility (e.g., the Great Moderation); (ii) a DSGE environment featuring Normal shocks that match the declines in observed cyclical and trend volatility can explain almost all of the fat-tailed characteristics observed in the data, leaving little support for the role of rare, large shocks delivering fat-tailed distributions.

表现出肥尾的GDP波动分布让人怀疑正态分布在实证和理论商业周期分析中的适用性。我们证明：(i)美国产出波动的肥尾并不是整个战后样本的普遍特征，而是出现在显示周期性和趋势波动性下降的子样本中（例如，大缓和）；（ii） DSGE环境具有与观测到的周期波动率和趋势波动率下降相匹配的正常冲击，可以解释数据中观测到的几乎所有肥尾特征，很少支持罕见的大冲击提供肥尾分布的作用。

引用次数: 0

Comparing the response of different education groups to predictable changes in income 比较不同教育群体对可预测的收入变化的反应

IF 1.3 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Macroeconomics

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103676

Charles Grant

The Permanent Income Hypothesis (PIH) can be tested using the excess-sensitivity test, which investigates whether current consumption is affected by predictable changes in income. Several studies have shown that households are overly sensitive to changes in current income, especially if they have low assets. This study shows that university educated households behave according to PIH, but that less educated households are excessively sensitive to predictable changes in income. This result is consistent with the idea that university-educated households are more patient.

永久收入假设（PIH）可以通过过度敏感性测试来检验，该测试调查当前消费是否受到收入可预测变化的影响。几项研究表明，家庭对当前收入的变化过于敏感，特别是如果他们的资产很低的话。这项研究表明，受过大学教育的家庭根据个人健康指数行事，但受教育程度较低的家庭对可预测的收入变化过于敏感。这一结果与受过大学教育的家庭更有耐心的观点是一致的。

引用次数: 0

External shocks and FX intervention policy in financially dollarized economies 金融美元化经济体的外部冲击与外汇干预政策

IF 1.3 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Macroeconomics

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103672

Alex Carrasco , David Florián Hoyle

We examine the role of sterilized FX interventions as a monetary policy tool in response to external shocks for dollarized emerging market economies. Our model highlights an agency problem that limits banks’ ability to secure funds in both domestic and foreign currencies, with its intensity linked to currency mismatches in the banking sector. This leads to endogenous deviations from the standard UIP condition, resulting in a non-neutral FX intervention policy. Sterilized FX interventions stabilize financial conditions not only by stabilizing real exchange rates but also by acting as a balance sheet policy that directly influences credit supply. Our quantitative analysis shows that FX policy rules that counteract exchange rate deviations reduce volatility in interest rate spreads including UIP deviations, credit, investment, and output, leading to significant welfare improvements compared to a flexible exchange rate regime.

我们研究了冲销外汇干预作为应对美元化新兴市场经济体外部冲击的货币政策工具的作用。我们的模型突出了一个代理问题，该问题限制了银行获得本币和外币资金的能力，其强度与银行业的货币错配有关。这导致了对标准UIP条件的内生偏差，导致了非中性的外汇干预政策。冲销外汇干预不仅通过稳定实际汇率，而且通过作为直接影响信贷供应的资产负债表政策来稳定金融状况。我们的定量分析表明，与灵活的汇率制度相比，抵消汇率偏差的外汇政策规则减少了包括UIP偏差、信贷、投资和产出在内的利差波动，从而显著改善了福利。

引用次数: 0

The partisanship of a central banker 中央银行家的党派主义

IF 1.3 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Macroeconomics

Pub Date : 2025-03-01 Epub Date: 2024-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103657

Fabrizio Carmignani

Even if formally established as independent, central banks may still be subject to partisan influences. The paper uses a simple new-Keynesian framework to model these influences as quiescence (i.e. when the central bank aligns with the ideological preferences of the incumbent government) or demurral (i.e. when the central bank moves away from the ideological preferences of the incumbent). The partisanship of the central bank then depends on which of these two prevails. The empirical analysis shows that different patterns of quiescence and demurral occur in different countries at different times. There is however also evidence that in some circumstances the conduct of monetary policy is non-partisan; that is, neither quiescence nor demurral prevails.

即使中央银行在形式上是独立的，但仍可能受到党派的影响。本文采用一个简单的新凯恩斯主义框架，将这些影响建模为静止（即当中央银行与现任政府的意识形态偏好一致时）或消解（即当中央银行偏离现任政府的意识形态偏好时）。中央银行的党派性取决于这两种情况中的哪一种。实证分析表明，不同国家在不同时期会出现不同的静态和动态模式。不过，也有证据表明，在某些情况下，货币政策的实施是非党派性的；也就是说，静态和非党派性都不占上风。

引用次数: 0

Optimal patent policy and wealth inequality in a Schumpeterian economy 熊彼特经济中的最优专利政策与财富不平等

IF 1.3 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Macroeconomics

Pub Date : 2025-03-01 Epub Date: 2024-12-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103656

Angus C. Chu , Chih-Hsing Liao

Does wealth inequality affect optimal patent policy? This study develops a Schumpeterian growth model with heterogeneous households to explore this question. Our model features a general innovation specification that nests two common specifications: (a) the knowledge-driven specification that uses R&D labor, and (b) the lab-equipment specification that uses final output for R&D. Under the knowledge-driven specification, all households prefer the same level of patent protection. However, under the lab-equipment specification, less wealthy households prefer weaker patent protection, so an unequal distribution of wealth reduces optimal patent protection and economic growth. Under the general innovation specification, strengthening patent protection has an inverted-U effect on innovation, in contrast to the positive effect under the two special cases. More importantly, an unequal wealth distribution continues to reduce optimal patent protection. Calibrating the model to US data, we find that eliminating wealth inequality raises economic growth by about 0.5% via stronger patent protection.

财富不平等是否影响最优专利政策？本文运用熊彼特的异质性家庭成长模型来探讨这一问题。我们的模型以一个通用的创新规范为特征，其中包含两个常见的规范：(a)使用研发劳动力的知识驱动规范，以及(b)使用研发最终输出的实验室设备规范。在知识驱动规范下，所有家庭都倾向于相同水平的专利保护。然而，在实验室设备规范下，较不富裕的家庭倾向于较弱的专利保护，因此财富分配的不平等降低了最优专利保护和经济增长。在一般创新规范下，加强专利保护对创新具有倒u型效应，而在两种特殊情况下则具有正效应。更重要的是，不平等的财富分配继续降低最佳专利保护。将该模型与美国数据进行校准后，我们发现，通过加强专利保护，消除财富不平等可以使经济增长提高约0.5%。

引用次数: 0

Consumption responses to inheritances: The role of durable goods 消费对继承的反应：耐用品的作用

IF 1.3 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Macroeconomics

Pub Date : 2025-03-01 Epub Date: 2024-12-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103661

Ignacio Belloc , José Alberto Molina , Jorge Velilla

This paper studies the impact of inheritances, a key component in household wealth accumulation, on consumption. Specifically, we investigate how inheritances influence household consumption growth, distinguishing durable and nondurable goods. In doing so, we use data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics spanning 2005–2019. The results reveal a positive effect of inheritances on household consumption of durable goods. Such an effect occurs immediately after receiving the inheritance and its average magnitude is about 27 %. Estimates also reveal that large inheritances significantly impact the consumption growth of durables, but also of non-durables, while small inheritances show no effects. Consumption responses are stronger among liquidity and borrowing constrained households, aligning with life-cycle models of consumption behavior. Insights inform planners by highlighting varied effects of inheritances on household consumption, particularly emphasizing the nuanced impact of inheritance size.

本文研究了家庭财富积累的重要组成部分——继承对消费的影响。具体而言，我们研究了遗产如何影响家庭消费增长，区分耐用品和非耐用品。为此，我们使用了2005-2019年收入动态小组研究的数据。结果显示，继承对家庭耐用品消费有正向影响。这种效应在继承后立即发生，其平均幅度约为27%。估计还显示，大的继承显著影响耐用品的消费增长，但也影响非耐用品的消费增长，而小的继承则没有影响。在流动性和借贷受限的家庭中，消费反应更为强烈，这与消费行为的生命周期模型相一致。通过强调遗产对家庭消费的不同影响，特别是强调遗产规模的细微影响，insight为规划者提供了信息。

引用次数: 0

首页上一页

下一页尾页

类型

全部化学•材料生命科学医学物理工程技术环境•农林材料科学地球科学法学管理学化学环境科学与生态学计算机科学教育学经济学农林科学人文科学生物学数学物理与天体物理心理学综合性期刊其他工业工程理学历史学农学文学信息工程

数据库

全部 ACS Publications Elsevier ieeexplore Springer The Royal Society of Chemistry Wiley

期刊

Journal of Macroeconomics

全部 Acc. Chem. Res. ACS Applied Bio Materials ACS Appl. Electron. Mater. ACS Appl. Energy Mater. ACS Appl. Mater. Interfaces ACS Appl. Nano Mater. ACS Appl. Polym. Mater. ACS BIOMATER-SCI ENG ACS Catal. ACS Cent. Sci. ACS Chem. Biol. ACS Chemical Health & Safety ACS Chem. Neurosci. ACS Comb. Sci. ACS Earth Space Chem. ACS Energy Lett. ACS Infect. Dis. ACS Macro Lett. ACS Mater. Lett. ACS Med. Chem. Lett. ACS Nano ACS Omega ACS Photonics ACS Sens. ACS Sustainable Chem. Eng. ACS Synth. Biol. Anal. Chem. BIOCHEMISTRY-US Bioconjugate Chem. BIOMACROMOLECULES Chem. Res. Toxicol. Chem. Rev. Chem. Mater. CRYST GROWTH DES ENERG FUEL Environ. Sci. Technol. Environ. Sci. Technol. Lett. Eur. J. Inorg. Chem. IND ENG CHEM RES Inorg. Chem. J. Agric. Food. Chem. J. Chem. Eng. Data J. Chem. Educ. J. Chem. Inf. Model. J. Chem. Theory Comput. J. Med. Chem. J. Nat. Prod. J PROTEOME RES J. Am. Chem. Soc. LANGMUIR MACROMOLECULES Mol. Pharmaceutics Nano Lett. Org. Lett. ORG PROCESS RES DEV ORGANOMETALLICS J. Org. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. A J. Phys. Chem. B J. Phys. Chem. C J. Phys. Chem. Lett. Analyst Anal. Methods Biomater. Sci. Catal. Sci. Technol. Chem. Commun. Chem. Soc. Rev. CHEM EDUC RES PRACT CRYSTENGCOMM Dalton Trans. Energy Environ. Sci. ENVIRON SCI-NANO ENVIRON SCI-PROC IMP ENVIRON SCI-WAT RES Faraday Discuss. Food Funct. Green Chem. Inorg. Chem. Front. Integr. Biol. J. Anal. At. Spectrom. J. Mater. Chem. A J. Mater. Chem. B J. Mater. Chem. C Lab Chip Mater. Chem. Front. Mater. Horiz. MEDCHEMCOMM Metallomics Mol. Biosyst. Mol. Syst. Des. Eng. Nanoscale Nanoscale Horiz. Nat. Prod. Rep. New J. Chem. Org. Biomol. Chem. Org. Chem. Front. PHOTOCH PHOTOBIO SCI PCCP Polym. Chem.

﹀