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Spatial inequality in prices and wages within a late-developing economy: Serbia, 1863–1910 后发经济体中价格和工资的空间不平等:塞尔维亚,1863-1910 年
IF 1.4 1区 历史学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-04-19 DOI: 10.1111/ehr.13348
Stefan Nikolić

Serbia emerged as a small independent nation-state in the economic periphery of nineteenth-century Europe. This article leverages uniquely abundant town-level data to examine spatial inequality in prices and wages within this late-developing economy. I first build a new dataset on prices of traded and household goods, and wages of skilled and unskilled workers for a panel of 42 urban settlements in Serbia in the period from 1863 to 1910. I apply the welfare ratio approach to calculate real wages of day labourers and masons. Second, I find strong spatial convergence in grain prices and costs of living, but divergence in wages, both nominal and real. Lastly, I investigate the determinants of price convergence and wage divergence with panel-data models. The results suggest that falling transport costs decreased price gaps between locations, whereas rising population differences increased inter-urban wage gaps.

塞尔维亚是十九世纪欧洲经济边缘的一个独立小民族国家。本文利用独一无二的丰富城镇级数据,研究了这个发展较晚的经济体在价格和工资方面的空间不平等。我首先建立了一个新的数据集,该数据集涉及 1863 年至 1910 年期间塞尔维亚 42 个城市居住区的贸易品和家庭用品的价格,以及熟练工人和非熟练工人的工资。我运用福利比率法计算了日工和泥瓦匠的实际工资。其次,我发现谷物价格和生活成本在空间上高度趋同,但名义工资和实际工资却存在差异。最后,我利用面板数据模型研究了价格趋同和工资差异的决定因素。结果表明,运输成本的下降缩小了各地区间的价格差距,而人口差异的扩大则加大了城市间的工资差距。
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引用次数: 0
Nominal wage patterns, monopsony, and labour market power in early modern England 现代早期英格兰的名义工资模式、垄断和劳动力市场力量
IF 1.4 1区 历史学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-04-14 DOI: 10.1111/ehr.13346
Meredith M. Paker, Judy Z. Stephenson, Patrick Wallis

Records of long-eighteenth-century English wage rates exhibit almost absolute nominal rigidity over many decades, alongside significant dispersion between the wages paid by different organizations for the same type of work in the same location. These features of preindustrial wages have been obscured by data aggregation and the construction of real wage series, which introduce variation. In this paper, we argue that the standard explanations for wage rigidity in economic history are insufficient. We show econometric evidence for monopsony power in one major organization and argue that the main historical wage series are also affected by employer power. Eighteenth-century England had an imperfectly competitive labour market with large frictions. This gave large organizations the power to set wage policies. We discuss the implications for the eighteenth-century British economy and research into long-run wages more generally.

18 世纪英国长期工资率的记录显示,几十年来,英国的工资率几乎是绝对的名义刚性,同时,在同一地点,不同组织为同类工作支付的工资之间也存在巨大差异。工业化前工资的这些特征被数据汇总和实际工资序列的构建所掩盖,从而引入了差异。在本文中,我们认为对经济史上工资刚性的标准解释是不充分的。我们展示了一个主要组织的垄断权力的计量经济学证据,并认为主要的历史工资序列也受到雇主权力的影响。18 世纪的英国劳动力市场竞争不完全,存在大量摩擦。这赋予了大型组织制定工资政策的权力。我们讨论了这对十八世纪英国经济和长期工资研究的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Anglo–Dutch financial connections and contrasts in the late eighteenth century: The Amsterdam phase of the 1772–3 credit crisis 十八世纪末英荷金融联系与对比:1772-3 年信贷危机的阿姆斯特丹阶段
IF 1.4 1区 历史学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-04-03 DOI: 10.1111/ehr.13345
Stein Berre, Paul Kosmetatos

We examine the Amsterdam phase of the 1772–3 financial crisis using the British experience in the same episode as comparative context. We conclude that, notwithstanding some direct exposures by Amsterdam institutions to the principals of the London crisis, the main linkage between the two outbreaks was the requirement for cash margin on loans backed by British East India Company shares. No significant contagion via the bills of exchange network spread from London to Amsterdam in the period separating the two outbreaks, but some feeding back of distress to London is noticeable after the Dutch outbreak. The crisis was rooted in credit expansion, a deterioration in asset risk profiles, and speculation in West Indian mortgage securities and British equity markets. Speculators were enabled by information inefficiencies in the specialized and layered Amsterdam markets, and by the absence of a gatekeeper who could have regulated the provision of credit to them. To contain the outbreak, the Dutch drew on the cohesion of an informal club of insiders who led business and civic affairs. Though the credit markets resumed normal operations relatively quickly, the incurred losses were transformative for their long term prospects by devastating some of their most important firms.

我们以英国在同一事件中的经历为比较背景,研究了 1772-3 年金融危机的阿姆斯特丹阶段。我们得出的结论是,尽管阿姆斯特丹的机构与伦敦危机的主体有一些直接的风险敞口,但两次危机爆发之间的主要联系是英国东印度公司股票支持的贷款对现金保证金的要求。在两次危机爆发的间隔期内,没有通过汇票网络从伦敦蔓延到阿姆斯特丹的重大传染病,但在荷兰危机爆发后,可以明显看到一些困境反馈到伦敦。危机的根源在于信贷扩张、资产风险状况恶化以及对西印度抵押贷款证券和英国股票市场的投机。由于阿姆斯特丹市场的专业化和分层化导致信息效率低下,而且缺乏一个可以监管向投机者提供信贷的守门人,投机者得以得逞。为了控制疫情爆发,荷兰人利用了由领导商业和民间事务的内部人士组成的非正式俱乐部的凝聚力。虽然信贷市场较快地恢复了正常运作,但由于一些最重要的公司遭受重创,所造成的损失对其长期前景产生了巨大的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Modifying the success story of Sweden: Revised output and labour productivity figures for manufacturing, 1869–1950 修改瑞典的成功故事:修订后的 1869-1950 年制造业产出和劳动生产率数据
IF 1.4 1区 历史学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-03-28 DOI: 10.1111/ehr.13332
Jesper Hamark, Svante Prado

The rampant growth rate of output and productivity in manufacturing borne out by Swedish Historical National Accounts (HNA) has nurtured the notion that the Swedish rise to prosperity was propelled by the confluence of disproportionately high levels of sophistication and very low levels of output per worker. The thrust of the argument is that this unique configuration allowed Sweden to leapfrog into modernization. The time has come to put this arresting claim under scrutiny, which is the foremost aim of this paper. This claim, we argue, is founded on a questionable empirical foundation. The most frequently used series of outputs from manufacturing at large and from groups of industries are those of the Swedish HNA. For several reasons, these series are inappropriate to use in studies assessing the rate of output and productivity increases before 1950. We have established new series of output and labour input for manufacturing at large between 1869 and 1950 that are suitable for investigations of productivity growth rates. The resulting series significantly raises the level of output per worker in the early part of the period and hence lowers the estimated growth rates of productivity for the era as a whole.

瑞典历史国民核算(HNA)所证实的制造业产出和生产率的迅猛增长孕育了这样一种观点,即瑞典的繁荣是由过高的先进水平和极低的工人人均产出水平共同推动的。这种观点的要旨是,这种独特的结构使瑞典得以跃入现代化。现在是对这一令人震惊的说法进行仔细研究的时候了,这也是本文的首要目的。我们认为,这种说法是建立在一个值得怀疑的经验基础之上的。最常用的制造业总体产出系列和工业集团产出系列是瑞典国民账户体系(HNA)的产出系列。由于多种原因,这些序列不适合用于评估 1950 年前产出和生产率增长速度的研究。我们为 1869 年至 1950 年间的整个制造业建立了新的产出和劳动力投入序列,适合用于研究生产率增长率。由此得出的序列大大提高了这一时期早期的工人人均产出水平,从而降低了整个时期的生产率估计增长率。
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引用次数: 0
How not to measure the standard of living: Male wages, non-market production and household income in nineteenth-century Europe 如何衡量生活水平?十九世纪欧洲的男性工资、非市场生产和家庭收入
IF 1.4 1区 历史学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-03-22 DOI: 10.1111/ehr.13339
Joyce Burnette

While real male wages can be used to measure input costs, they do not provide accurate measures of the standard of living. This paper uses detailed accounts of nineteenth-century European families collected by Le Play and his colleagues to demonstrate the importance of non-market production for household consumption. If we measure income from all sources, including non-market production, the British advantage in material consumption was only about half of the British advantage in male wages. While British male wages were high, British wives worked less and British families were more dependent on the income of the male head than continental families.

虽然男性的实际工资可以用来衡量投入成本,但并不能准确衡量生活水平。本文利用 Le Play 及其同事收集的 19 世纪欧洲家庭的详细记录,证明了非市场生产对家庭消费的重要性。如果我们衡量包括非市场生产在内的所有来源的收入,英国在物质消费方面的优势仅为英国男性工资优势的一半左右。虽然英国男性工资高,但英国妻子工作较少,与欧洲大陆家庭相比,英国家庭更依赖于男户主的收入。
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引用次数: 0
Firm survival and the rise of the factory 企业生存与工厂崛起
IF 1.4 1区 历史学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-03-18 DOI: 10.1111/ehr.13328
Thor Berger, Vinzent Ostermeyer

This paper uses longitudinal establishment-level data to trace the rise of the factory during Sweden's industrialization between 1864 and 1890. We document a sharp shift from the small artisan shop to the mechanized factory, which can largely be ascribed to differences in survival. Whilst non-mechanized establishments could compete with the factory during early industrialization, a distinct survival advantage of the factory appeared at later stages of industrialization. The evolving advantage of the factory can mainly be attributed to its larger scale, labour productivity, and technology use. By the end of the nineteenth century, these factors became increasingly important determinants of firm survival.

本文利用纵向机构级数据,追溯了 1864 年至 1890 年瑞典工业化过程中工厂的兴起。我们记录了从小作坊到机械化工厂的急剧转变,这在很大程度上可归因于生存能力的差异。虽然在工业化早期,非机械化企业可以与工厂竞争,但在工业化后期,工厂出现了明显的生存优势。工厂不断发展的优势主要归因于其更大的规模、劳动生产率和技术应用。到十九世纪末,这些因素成为企业生存越来越重要的决定因素。
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引用次数: 0
Firm profitability and forced wage labour in Portuguese Africa: Evidence from the Sena Sugar Estates, 1920–74 葡萄牙非洲的企业盈利能力和强迫雇佣劳动:1920-74 年塞纳糖厂的证据
IF 1.4 1区 历史学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-03-15 DOI: 10.1111/ehr.13343
Sam Jones, Peter Gibbon

Forced wage labour (FWL) in colonial-era Portuguese Africa came to encompass a majority of working age men and persisted until the early 1960s. On the basis of reconstructed financial records from the Sena Sugar Estates in today's Mozambique, we estimate the long-run profitability of the firm. With this we associate rates of extraction from native labour, defined as the difference between actual levels of remuneration and those under counterfactual freer market conditions. We estimate that coercion suppressed workers’ remuneration by about two-fifths, representing a significant cost saving to the firm. However, a production function analysis indicates that coercion also negatively affected productivity. Using these results, we calculate that the firm's profitability might have remained broadly robust without FWL. This suggests other factors, including fiscal imperatives and technological factors, likely contributed to the persistence of labour coercion in Mozambique.

在殖民时期的葡萄牙非洲,强迫雇佣劳动(FWL)涵盖了大部分劳动适龄男性,并一直持续到 20 世纪 60 年代初。根据今天莫桑比克塞纳糖业公司重建的财务记录,我们估算了该公司的长期盈利能力。我们将从本地劳动力中的榨取率与此联系起来,榨取率的定义是实际报酬水平与在更自由市场条件下的反事实报酬水平之间的差额。我们估计,胁迫压低了工人报酬的约五分之二,为企业节省了大量成本。然而,生产函数分析表明,胁迫还对生产率产生了负面影响。根据这些结果,我们推算出,如果没有 FWL,企业的盈利能力可能大致保持稳定。这表明,其他因素,包括财政需要和技术因素,很可能是莫桑比克持续存在劳动胁迫的原因。
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引用次数: 0
The growth contribution of colonial Indian railways in comparative perspective 从比较角度看印度殖民时期铁路对经济增长的贡献
IF 1.4 1区 历史学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-03-11 DOI: 10.1111/ehr.13341
Dan Bogart, Latika Chaudhary, Alfonso Herranz-Loncán

Railways were an important driver of global economic growth in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. Whilst their role is well documented in industrial economies, we know less about their macro-economic impact in developing countries. In this paper, we first estimate the aggregate growth impact of Indian railways, one of the largest networks in the world in the early twentieth century. Then, we compare their impact in India to four emerging Latin American economies (Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, and Uruguay) and the Cape colony. Using growth accounting techniques common to the cross-country estimates, we argue that the aggregate growth impact of Indian railways was significant, increasing Indian gross domestic product (GDP) per capita by 13.5 per cent by 1912. We also find that the growth impact of Indian railways was similar to Brazil and Mexico, but smaller than Argentina and the Cape. Compared with the latter, India had a smaller size of railway freight revenues in the economy and lower wages to fares leading to lower passenger time savings. Railways were the most important infrastructure driver of economic growth in India during the first era of globalization from 1860 to 1912, but they contributed less than in richer and more dynamic developing economies.

铁路是十九世纪和二十世纪初全球经济增长的重要推动力。虽然铁路在工业经济中的作用有据可查,但我们对其在发展中国家的宏观经济影响却知之甚少。在本文中,我们首先估算了二十世纪初世界上最大的铁路网络之一--印度铁路对经济增长的总体影响。然后,我们将其对印度的影响与四个新兴拉美经济体(阿根廷、巴西、墨西哥和乌拉圭)以及开普殖民地进行比较。利用跨国估算中常用的增长核算技术,我们认为印度铁路对总体增长的影响是显著的,到 1912 年,印度人均国内生产总值(GDP)增长了 13.5%。我们还发现,印度铁路对经济增长的影响与巴西和墨西哥相似,但小于阿根廷和开普省。与后者相比,印度经济中的铁路货运收入规模较小,票价工资较低,导致乘客节省的时间较少。在 1860 年至 1912 年的第一个全球化时代,铁路是推动印度经济增长的最重要的基础设施,但与更富裕、更有活力的发展中经济体相比,铁路的贡献较小。
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引用次数: 0
Corporate taxes, leverage, and investment: Evidence from Nazi-occupied Netherlands 公司税、杠杆和投资:纳粹占领时期荷兰的证据
IF 1.4 1区 历史学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-03-07 DOI: 10.1111/ehr.13331
Philip T. Fliers, Abe de Jong, Bert S. van Stiphout-Kramer

We examine the Netherlands around the Second World War, where the occupying Nazi regime overhauled the country's corporate tax regime and introduced a profit tax of 55 per cent. We estimate that the new tax regime cost investors at least 300 million guilders, an amount equivalent to 5 per cent of Dutch GDP in 1940. We demonstrate that the tax introduction changed the financing of Dutch businesses. In particular, we find strong evidence that debt financing increased because it provides a tax shelter. The changes in taxation also led to an after-tax reduction in the cost of debt, which had large real effects on firm investment. After the end of the war, firms with more leverage had higher capital expenditures.

我们研究了第二次世界大战前后的荷兰,当时纳粹占领政权全面改革了荷兰的企业税制,引入了 55% 的利润税。我们估计,新税制使投资者损失了至少 3 亿盾,相当于 1940 年荷兰国内生产总值的 5%。我们证明,税收的引入改变了荷兰企业的融资方式。特别是,我们发现有确凿证据表明,债务融资增加是因为它提供了避税手段。税收的变化也导致了债务成本的税后下降,这对企业投资产生了巨大的实际影响。战争结束后,杠杆率更高的企业资本支出也更高。
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引用次数: 0
Competition, over-branching and bank failures during the Great Depression: New evidence from Italy 大萧条时期的竞争、过度分行和银行倒闭:意大利的新证据
IF 1.4 1区 历史学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-03-04 DOI: 10.1111/ehr.13340
Marco Molteni

This paper employs quantitative and qualitative methods to examine the link between banking competition, branching and financial distress during the interwar period in Europe, focusing on Italy as a case study. Regression analysis and a systematic review of printed sources show that banks experiencing distress had opened scores of branches and operated in areas with harsher competition. Poor managerial choices led banks to have higher operational costs, pushing them to more remunerative but riskier activities. The 1920s saw a profound transformation of the Italian banking system, with extensive branch expansion and cut-throat competition for deposits. This paper argues that these changes in the structure of the banking system rendered it more fragile when the international crisis hit. Available evidence on other European countries suggests that Italy was not an isolated case. The study contributes to the literature on banking crises during the Great Depression and the effects of banking competition on financial stability.

本文以意大利为例,采用定量和定性方法研究了欧洲战时银行业竞争、分支机构和金融困境之间的联系。回归分析和对印刷资料的系统回顾表明,陷入困境的银行开设了大量分支机构,并在竞争更为激烈的地区开展业务。糟糕的管理选择导致银行运营成本上升,推动银行从事更有收益但风险更大的业务。20 世纪 20 年代,意大利银行体系发生了深刻变革,分行大肆扩张,存款竞争残酷。本文认为,银行体系结构的这些变化使其在国际危机爆发时变得更加脆弱。有关其他欧洲国家的现有证据表明,意大利并非个案。本研究为有关大萧条时期银行业危机以及银行业竞争对金融稳定的影响的文献做出了贡献。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Economic History Review
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