Journal of Financial Markets最新文献

Closing auctions set daily closing prices for U.S. stocks and account for a striking 7.5% of daily volume in 2018, up from 3.1% in 2010. We study closing auctions in the new regime of record volume. Closing auctions appear to match volumes at low cost: closing prices typically match pre-close bid or ask prices, and price impact is lower than during continuous trading. Auction price deviations revert quickly and almost completely, on average. Auction-to-intraday volume spikes on S&P 500 additions and increases permanently afterwards, suggesting that closing volume is fueled directly and indirectly by the growth of indexing and ETFs.

We find that abnormal fourth-quarter capital expenditures are negatively correlated with future stock returns. While this evidence is linked to the asset growth factor, it cannot be entirely attributed to it. The fact that the relationship reverts with contemporaneous returns suggests that ad hoc investments may reflect changing discount rates. However, additional tests indicate that the reported effect is amplified by high payouts, low debt levels, and high idiosyncratic volatility, which is suggestive of over-investment issues. Our analysis supports the notion that firms’ investment decisions contain intricate but valuable information about stock returns.

We exploit a unique experiment, where the intraday price moves of Indian IPO listings are restricted within a narrow band, to examine the consequences of price bands for stock prices, investor trading behavior, and stock market liquidity. Based on difference-in-differences estimations, we find that price bands lead to a significant reduction in the price variability of IPO stocks. The decrease in variability is accompanied by increases in post-IPO selling by individual investors, the price impact of trades, and IPO expected returns. Bid-ask spreads remain similar. The findings provide new evidence on the effects of intraday price bands on equity markets.

We examine the associations between newspapers tone and stock market indices by translating newspapers coverage into human sentiment gauge. Our tone has positive effects on overnight stock returns and negative effects on both intraday returns and conditional volatility. The positive effect of the tone is highly significant on days of sharp price declines and when the tone is calculated using general newspapers. That positive effect, apparently thru opening prices, partly explains the overnight-intraday anomaly. The impact of negative events' coverage is about double the impact of positive events’ coverage. This asymmetry is greater when distinguishing between general and business newspapers.

We examine prices and daily short selling activity around reverse stock splits using a difference-in-difference identification strategy. The results show negative returns for treatment stocks, relative to control stocks, around reverse splits. Additionally, short selling increases for treatment stocks vis-à-vis control stocks in the days after the reverse split announcements, but not before. Moreover, short selling on reverse split announcement and effective dates does not appear to contain more information about future negative returns than usual. Together, the results indicate that reverse stock splits attract short sellers’ attention, but that they are no more informed around these events than normal.

We employ the implied volatility spread (IVS) and the short lending fee as measures of private information conveyed by their respective markets. Using issuer credit rating announcements as an informational event, we find that both IVS and the short fee have significantly higher predictive power for returns on event days versus non-event days. Both also predict the direction and magnitude of credit rating changes. Consistent with the linkage between the short sale and options markets, in models with both explanatory variables, the short fee remains significant in all specifications, while IVS loses explanatory power.

We extract the news component of short-selling activity by accounting for important cross-sectional, distributional differences in short interest data. The resulting measure of surprise in short interest negatively predicts the cross section of both U.S. and international equity returns. Our results also indicate that this predictability originates from short sellers’ informed trading on mispricing and investors’ underreaction due to their anchoring on past short interest. Finally, consistent with the notion of costly arbitrage, the return predictability is stronger among illiquid, volatile stocks and stocks with high information uncertainty, but importantly, unrelated to short-selling frictions.

Using a European private firm sample, we conduct a dynamic empirical analysis of private firm exit choice, previously modeled as a one-time IPO versus acquisition decision. Going public may yield firms a valuation premium (over a direct acquisition) through a post-IPO acquisition, but may also involve possible delisting at a valuation discount. We explicitly account for these dynamic considerations and show that such considerations alter firms’ initial exit trade-off: firms that anticipate a higher post-IPO acquisition probability are more likely to go public initially; those that anticipate a higher post-IPO delisting probability are more likely to choose a direct acquisition.

We extract an option-implied measure for systemic risk, the Systemic Options Value-at-Risk (SOVaR), from put option prices that can capture the buildup stage of systemic risk in the financial sector earlier than the standard systemic risk measures (SRMs). Our measure exhibits more timely early warning signals of main events around the global financial crisis than the main SRMs. SOVaR shows significant predictive power for macroeconomic downturns as well as future recessions up to one year ahead. Our results are robust to various specifications, breakdowns of financial sectors, and controlling for other main risk measures proposed in the literature.

The abnormal decline in the number of U.S. public firms is often blamed on merger activity, private equity investments, and stock market regulations. We compare the effects of these channels in a unified framework. In the U.S., an extra 100 mergers is associated with 22.01 additional missing public firms, whereas an extra 100 PE deals is associated with 3.62 fewer missing public firms. Regulatory changes contribute to the decline of U.S. listings too. We also specify the types of deals that most strongly affect listings. Finally, we document that similar listing gaps emerge in other developed economies.