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Separately measuring home‐field advantage for offenses and defenses: A panel‐data study of constituent channels within collegiate American football 分别衡量进攻方和防守方的主场优势:美式橄榄球大学生组成渠道的面板数据研究
IF 1.9 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-04-01 DOI: 10.1002/soej.12682
Matthew J. McMahon, Sarah Marx Quintanar
We improve constituent‐channel estimates of home‐field and neutral‐site advantage for collegiate American football's top division by utilizing a richer, 12‐season data set and by exploiting the COVID‐19 pandemic as a random shock. Novel to the literature, we separately examine points scored by each team, allowing us to identify impacts on each team's offense and defense individually. The information set provided by our model is a strict superset of that provided by the previous standard in the literature, making ours a strictly dominant modeling choice. We demonstrate this improvement theoretically and empirically. Physiologically, away‐team travel distance does not impact their own score, but it increases home‐team scores, consistent with the notion that defenses tire faster than offenses. There is also similar but limited evidence of this effect for neutral‐site teams. Time zones may play a minor role, too. Psychologically, crowd size and density hurt away‐team scores but do not impact home or neutral‐site teams. The away‐team effect disappears in 2020, however, indicating that the pre‐2020 effect is caused by the crowd's noise, not their mere presence. We also find that increasing stadium capacity while holding crowd size constant hurts home‐team scores, highlighting the importance of considering ticket demand when considering stadium expansion. Tactically, stadium familiarity helps offenses, not defenses, while team‐opponent familiarity has the opposite effect. Weather also plays a role. At median values for key variables, we find an overall home‐field advantage of 4.1 points.
我们利用更丰富的 12 个赛季的数据集,并利用 COVID-19 大流行病作为随机冲击,改进了对美式橄榄球顶级联赛主场优势和中立场地优势的成分渠道估计。与文献不同的是,我们对每支球队的得分进行了单独研究,从而可以识别出对每支球队进攻和防守的影响。我们的模型所提供的信息集是以往文献标准所提供信息集的严格超集,这使得我们的模型成为严格意义上的主导模型选择。我们从理论和经验上证明了这一改进。从生理学角度来看,客队的旅行距离不会影响本队的得分,但却会增加主队的得分,这与防守方比进攻方更容易疲劳的概念是一致的。中立场球队也有类似的影响,但证据有限。时区也可能起到微小的作用。从心理上讲,观众人数和密度会影响客队得分,但不会影响主队或中立场地队。然而,客队效应在 2020 年消失了,这表明 2020 年前的效应是由观众的噪音造成的,而不仅仅是他们的存在。我们还发现,在观众人数不变的情况下,增加体育场容量会损害主队得分,这突出了在考虑扩建体育场时考虑门票需求的重要性。在战术上,体育场的熟悉程度有助于进攻而非防守,而球队与对手的熟悉程度则会产生相反的效果。天气也有影响。在关键变量的中位值上,我们发现主场优势总体为 4.1 分。
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引用次数: 0
The effects of COVID‐19 lockdown on the body weight and lifestyle behaviors of U.S. adults COVID-19 封锁对美国成年人体重和生活方式行为的影响
IF 1.9 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-03-04 DOI: 10.1002/soej.12679
Jaesang Sung, Will Davis, Qihua Qiu
The COVID‐19 pandemic and associated policies may have impacted body weight and related lifestyle behaviors. Using 2017–2020 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data, we estimate the effects of COVID‐19 lockdown on Body Mass Index (BMI) and the probability of obesity among adults in the United States. Our triple‐differences approach, using recent pre‐pandemic years as counterfactuals, identifies statistically significant lockdown‐induced increases in body weight. Event study results highlight a lagged effect of lockdown on body weight, with BMI increases manifesting 2 months post‐lockdown. These effects are particularly pronounced among non‐white adults, low‐income individuals, females, and metropolitan residents. The lockdown's impact on mental health, a potential mechanism driving BMI increases, is concentrated among non‐white, low‐income adults. We observe potential post‐lockdown changes in diet and sedentary behaviors, evidenced by increased Google searches for high‐calorie foods, food delivery apps, and video streaming. Google searches related to healthy habits, such as exercise, yield mixed results.
COVID-19 大流行和相关政策可能会影响体重和相关生活方式行为。利用 2017-2020 年行为风险因素监测系统数据,我们估算了 COVID-19 封锁对美国成年人体重指数(BMI)和肥胖概率的影响。我们采用三重差分法,将大流行前的最近几年作为反事实,从统计学角度确定了封锁引起的体重增加。事件研究结果凸显了封锁对体重的滞后影响,体重指数的增加在封锁后 2 个月显现。这些影响在非白人成年人、低收入人群、女性和大都市居民中尤为明显。封锁对心理健康的影响是导致体重指数上升的一个潜在机制,这种影响主要集中在非白人、低收入成年人中。我们观察到封锁后饮食和久坐行为的潜在变化,谷歌搜索高热量食品、外卖应用程序和视频流的增加就是证明。与运动等健康习惯相关的谷歌搜索结果不一。
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引用次数: 0
Labor force effects of Medicaid and Marketplace expansions: Variation by gender, parental status, and household structure 医疗补助和市场扩张对劳动力的影响:不同性别、父母状况和家庭结构的差异
IF 1.9 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-02-28 DOI: 10.1002/soej.12678
Makayla Lavender, Emily Johnston
We revisit the Affordable Care Act (ACA)'s Medicaid expansion's labor market effects and build upon it by estimating effects of subsidized Marketplace insurance. Using American Community Survey data, we jointly model the effects of Medicaid and Marketplace expansion on labor force outcomes using simulated eligibility measures. Throughout our analysis, we focus on heterogeneity by gender, parental status, and single versus two‐headed households. Consequently, this is the first paper presenting labor outcomes of the ACA among women with children, an important group, which may be particularly responsive to increased flexibility in meeting income, childcare, and insurance needs. Even among women, we find little evidence that Medicaid eligibility reduced labor force participation. Any significant reductions among women are small in magnitude and not well corroborated by placebo tests. Alternatively, women with children gaining Marketplace eligibility had statistically significant reductions in labor force participation, reductions in hours, and increases in part‐time work.
我们重新审视了《可负担医疗法案》(ACA)的医疗补助扩展对劳动力市场的影响,并在此基础上估算了补贴市场保险的影响。我们利用美国社区调查数据,通过模拟资格衡量标准,共同模拟了医疗补助和市场保险扩张对劳动力结果的影响。在整个分析过程中,我们重点关注性别、父母身份以及单亲家庭与双户主家庭的异质性。因此,这是第一篇介绍 ACA 在有子女妇女中的劳动力结果的论文,有子女的妇女是一个重要的群体,她们在满足收入、育儿和保险需求方面可能对更大的灵活性特别敏感。即使在妇女中,我们也几乎没有发现任何证据表明医疗补助资格会降低劳动力参与率。在妇女中出现的任何明显减少的幅度都很小,而且安慰剂测试也不能很好地证实这一点。另外,有子女的妇女在获得市场资格后,其劳动力参与率、工作时间和兼职工作的增加都有显著的统计学意义。
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引用次数: 0
Economic fluctuations and mortality in Canada revisited 加拿大经济波动与死亡率再研究
IF 1.9 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-02-19 DOI: 10.1002/soej.12684
Zuzana Janko, Gurleen Popli
This paper uses panel data for Canada from 1976 to 2018, across 10 provinces, to reassess the relationship between mortality rates and economic fluctuations. The key contribution of our paper lies in examining the extent to which this relationship is driven by the employment rate (extensive margin) versus average hours worked (intensive margin). We find evidence of procyclical mortality for females at the aggregate level; aggregate male mortality remains largely unaffected by economic fluctuations. Our findings also reveal temporal heterogeneity, as the extensive margin becomes the driving force for female mortality rates during the more recent period (1990 onwards). These findings remain robust when accounting for personal income and pollution. Finally, we find some support for a procyclical relationship for individuals in the working age groups, while mortality exhibits a countercyclical pattern for children (age 0 to 14) and the elderly (age 65 and above).
本文利用 1976 年至 2018 年加拿大 10 个省的面板数据,重新评估了死亡率与经济波动之间的关系。本文的主要贡献在于研究了这种关系在多大程度上受就业率(广义边际)与平均工时(密集边际)的驱动。我们发现,在总体水平上,女性死亡率存在顺周期性;而男性总死亡率在很大程度上不受经济波动的影响。我们的研究结果还揭示了时间异质性,因为在较近的时期(1990 年以后),广泛边际成为女性死亡率的驱动力。在考虑个人收入和污染的情况下,这些发现仍然是可靠的。最后,我们发现,工作年龄组的个人死亡率与经济周期有一定的关系,而儿童(0-14 岁)和老年人(65 岁及以上)的死亡率则呈现反周期模式。
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引用次数: 0
Aging in style: Seniority and sentiment in scholarly writing 风格老化:学术写作中的资历与情感
IF 1.9 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-02-17 DOI: 10.1002/soej.12683
Lea-Rachel Kosnik, Daniel S. Hamermesh
The scholarly impact of academic research matters for academic promotions, influence, relevance to public policy, and others. Focusing on writing style in top-level professional journals, we examine how it changes with age, and how stylistic differences and age affect impact. As top-level scholars age, their writing style increasingly differs from others'. The impact (measured by citations) of each contribution decreases, due to the direct effect of age and the much smaller indirect effects through style. Authors who grew up outside North America or the United Kingdom write in different styles from others, in ways that reduce the impact of their research. Nobel laureates' scholarly writing evinces less certainty about the conclusions of their research than that of other highly productive scholars.
学术研究的学术影响力关系到学术晋升、影响力、与公共政策的相关性等。我们以顶级专业期刊的写作风格为重点,研究了写作风格随年龄的变化,以及风格差异和年龄对影响力的影响。随着顶级学者年龄的增长,他们的写作风格也越来越不同于他人。由于年龄的直接影响和通过风格产生的小得多的间接影响,每篇论文的影响力(以引用率衡量)都会下降。在北美或英国以外地区长大的作者,其写作风格与其他人不同,从而降低了其研究的影响力。与其他高产学者相比,诺贝尔奖获得者的学术著作对其研究结论的确定性较低。
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引用次数: 0
Certifiably employable? Occupational regulation and unemployment duration 可认证就业?职业规范和失业期限
IF 1.9 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-02-05 DOI: 10.1002/soej.12677
Ilya Kukaev, Edward J. Timmons
Occupational regulation is a labor market institution that has received a growing amount of attention. However, there is a gap in the literature regarding the relationship between occupational credentials and unemployment duration in the United States. Thus, we propose a random search model to explain differences in unemployment duration resulting from heterogeneous effects from licenses and certification. Our model predicts that an occupational credential with a stronger signaling/human capital effect results in a shorter individual unemployment duration. To estimate the relationship between occupational credentials and spells of unemployment, we perform a survival analysis using panel data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) for the years 2013–2019. We find that both licensing and certification are associated with reductions in unemployment spells for Black males that are similar in magnitude. Our results provide some suggestive guidance to policymakers since certification is less costly and not mandatory like occupational licensing.
职业规范是一种劳动力市场制度,受到越来越多的关注。然而,关于美国职业资格证书与失业持续时间之间关系的文献还存在空白。因此,我们提出了一个随机搜索模型来解释执照和证书的异质性效应所导致的失业持续时间的差异。我们的模型预测,信号/人力资本效应较强的职业证书会导致个人失业持续时间较短。为了估算职业资格证书与失业时间之间的关系,我们利用 2013-2019 年收入与计划参与调查(SIPP)的面板数据进行了生存分析。我们发现,执照和证书都与黑人男性失业期的减少有关,两者的幅度相似。我们的结果为政策制定者提供了一些建议性指导,因为认证的成本较低,而且不像职业许可那样具有强制性。
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引用次数: 0
Can high-skilled immigrants transfer their human capital to the United States? 高技能移民能否将其人力资本转移到美国?
IF 1.9 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-02-05 DOI: 10.1002/soej.12681
Bin Xie
Using the National Survey of College Graduates, this study examines the return to pre- and post-migration human capital of high-skilled immigrants in the United States to provide an empirical evaluation of their skill transferability. I find that, on average, high-skilled immigrants exhibit no wage return to foreign work experience, yet they demonstrate a relatively substantial return to foreign education. Delving into the heterogeneity across gender, occupation, and entry visa categories reveals the subsequent insights: female immigrants transfer less foreign experience and education than males; STEM immigrants are more adept at transferring foreign work experience than their non-STEM counterparts; temporary work visa holders exhibit a heightened ability to transfer work experience, while green card and dependent visa holders have limited transferability of foreign work experience. Lastly, English proficiency is positively associated with the transferability of work experience.
本研究利用 "全国大学毕业生调查"(National Survey of College Graduates),考察了美国高技能移民移民前和移民后人力资本的回报,从而对他们的技能可转移性进行了实证评估。我发现,平均而言,高技能移民没有表现出对外国工作经验的工资回报,但他们却表现出对外国教育的相对可观的回报。深入研究不同性别、职业和入境签证类别的异质性,会发现以下启示:女性移民的国外工作经验和教育转移少于男性;STEM 移民比非 STEM 移民更善于转移国外工作经验;临时工作签证持有者转移工作经验的能力更强,而绿卡和家属签证持有者转移国外工作经验的能力有限。最后,英语水平与工作经验的可转移性呈正相关。
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引用次数: 0
Economic freedom and growth, income, investment, and inequality: A quantitative summary of the literature 经济自由与增长、收入、投资和不平等:文献定量总结
IF 1.9 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-01-29 DOI: 10.1002/soej.12680
Robert Lawson, Vincent Miozzi, Meg Tuszynski
This study examines the published estimates on the relationship between economic freedom, as measured by the Economic Freedom of the World (EFW) index, and measures of growth, income, investment, and inequality. We obtained 696 point estimates for economic freedom-growth from 54 articles, 386 estimates for economic freedom-income from 23 articles, 343 estimates for economic freedom-investment from 32 articles, and 759 estimates for economic freedom-inequality from 26 articles. The published estimates support the view that economic freedom is positively related to growth, income, and investment. The level of economic freedom appears to be simply unrelated to inequality, though increases in economic freedom may correlate with higher inequality.
本研究考察了已发表的关于世界经济自由度(EFW)指数衡量的经济自由与增长、收入、投资和不平等衡量标准之间关系的估计值。我们从 54 篇文章中获得了 696 个点的经济自由-增长估计值,从 23 篇文章中获得了 386 个点的经济自由-收入估计值,从 32 篇文章中获得了 343 个点的经济自由-投资估计值,从 26 篇文章中获得了 759 个点的经济自由-不平等估计值。已公布的估算结果支持经济自由与增长、收入和投资正相关的观点。经济自由度似乎与不平等根本无关,尽管经济自由度的增加可能与不平等的加剧相关。
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引用次数: 0
A Bayesian analysis of e-cigarette risk perceptions in the United Kingdom 对英国电子烟风险认知的贝叶斯分析
IF 1.9 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-12-11 DOI: 10.1002/soej.12674
W. Kip Viscusi
Public Health England has communicated that e-cigarettes provide at least a 95% risk reduction compared to conventional cigarettes. This article's survey evidence indicates that adults in the United Kingdom believe that e-cigarettes are only 30%–40% safer overall and that they reduce lung cancer risks and total mortality risks by a similar percentage. A Bayesian analysis of risk beliefs finds that e-cigarette risk perceptions are anchored on prior cigarette risk beliefs. The public, especially smokers, underestimates the magnitude of the risk reduction being communicated by public health officials. Those who are aware of e-cigarette messages from Public Health England assess lower risks of e-cigarettes, but they still underestimate the relative risk reduction. Even people with favorable qualitative beliefs about the harm reduction provided by e-cigarettes overestimate the riskiness of e-cigarettes.
英格兰公共卫生局曾通报说,与传统香烟相比,电子烟至少能降低95%的风险。本文的调查证据表明,英国成年人认为电子烟的整体安全性仅为30%-40%,其降低肺癌风险和总死亡率风险的比例相似。对风险信念的贝叶斯分析发现,电子烟的风险认知是基于先前的卷烟风险信念。公众,尤其是吸烟者,低估了公共卫生官员宣传的风险降低幅度。那些了解英格兰公共卫生部门发布的电子烟信息的人认为电子烟的风险较低,但他们仍然低估了相对风险降低的程度。即使是对电子烟的减害效果抱有良好定性信念的人,也会高估电子烟的风险性。
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引用次数: 0
How does economic freedom influence public health? Evidence from U.S. cities 经济自由如何影响公共健康?来自美国城市的证据
IF 1.9 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-12-08 DOI: 10.1002/soej.12673
Justin Callais, Kelly Hyde, I. Murtazashvili, Yang Zhou
Although there is substantial agreement how microeconomic forces—income, risk aversion—shape public health outcomes, there is substantial disagreement about the relationship between macroeconomic forces—market liberalization and economic freedom—on public health. In this paper, we investigate the relationship between public health, economic freedom, and wealth using a large sample of metropolitan‐level data from the United States. We find that economic freedom does have a statistically significant and positive impact on general, physical, and mental health, but the overall results are small in magnitude. When we disaggregate the three areas of economic freedom, we find that areas with lower government spending and freer labor markets have the strongest positive effect on physical and mental health. However, our results are strongest for the richest group of respondents, suggesting that the economic freedom‐health relationship is perhaps indirect, and shown through income.
尽管人们对微观经济力量——收入、风险厌恶——如何影响公共卫生结果有很大的共识,但对于宏观经济力量——市场自由化和经济自由——与公共卫生之间的关系却存在很大的分歧。在本文中,我们使用来自美国大都市水平的大样本数据来研究公共卫生、经济自由和财富之间的关系。我们发现,经济自由确实对总体、身体和心理健康有统计上显著的积极影响,但总体结果在量级上很小。当我们对经济自由的三个领域进行分类时,我们发现政府支出较低和劳动力市场更自由的地区对身心健康的积极影响最大。然而,我们的结果在最富有的受访者群体中最为明显,这表明经济自由与健康的关系可能是间接的,并通过收入表现出来。
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引用次数: 0
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Southern Economic Journal
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