Based on novel survey data, we document a persistent rise in work from home (WFH) over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using theory and direct survey evidence, we argue that three-quarters of this increase reflects the adoption of new work arrangements that will likely be permanent for many workers. A quantitative model matched to survey data predicts that twice as many workers will WFH full-time postpandemic compared to prepandemic, and that one in every five instead of seven workdays will be WFH. These model predictions are consistent with survey evidence on workers’ own expectations about WFH in the future. (JEL I12, I18, J22, M54)
{"title":"Work from Home before and after the COVID-19 Outbreak","authors":"Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin, Karel Mertens","doi":"10.1257/mac.20210061","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20210061","url":null,"abstract":"Based on novel survey data, we document a persistent rise in work from home (WFH) over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using theory and direct survey evidence, we argue that three-quarters of this increase reflects the adoption of new work arrangements that will likely be permanent for many workers. A quantitative model matched to survey data predicts that twice as many workers will WFH full-time postpandemic compared to prepandemic, and that one in every five instead of seven workdays will be WFH. These model predictions are consistent with survey evidence on workers’ own expectations about WFH in the future. (JEL I12, I18, J22, M54)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135368140","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Kyriakos Chousakos, Gary Gorton, Guillermo Ordoñez
The amount of information produced about firms’ productivities and about the quality of collateral backing their loans varies over time. These information dynamics determine the evolution of credit, output and productivity, which feeds back into incentives to produce information. We characterize this intricate dynamic relation. A credit boom happens when information about collateral depreciates. A financial crisis happens when information about collateral is suddenly generated. Information about firms’ individual productivities over credit booms can prevent or tame the crisis, acting as an endogenous macroprudential force. (JEL D24, D83, E32, E44, G01, G32)
{"title":"Information Dynamics and Macro Fluctuations","authors":"Kyriakos Chousakos, Gary Gorton, Guillermo Ordoñez","doi":"10.1257/mac.20210101","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20210101","url":null,"abstract":"The amount of information produced about firms’ productivities and about the quality of collateral backing their loans varies over time. These information dynamics determine the evolution of credit, output and productivity, which feeds back into incentives to produce information. We characterize this intricate dynamic relation. A credit boom happens when information about collateral depreciates. A financial crisis happens when information about collateral is suddenly generated. Information about firms’ individual productivities over credit booms can prevent or tame the crisis, acting as an endogenous macroprudential force. (JEL D24, D83, E32, E44, G01, G32)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135369085","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
I quantitatively characterize optimal consumption and labor income taxes in a structural life-cycle model of household consumption, saving, and employment choices that allows for irreversibility of durable goods and preference heterogeneity. I find that durables should be subsidized and nondurables should be taxed at a uniform rate. The durable subsidy is driven by the life-cycle features of the model together with durables’ irreversibility and borrowing constraints. Uniform taxation on nondurables holds under exogenous and endogenous—fully or weakly separable—labor supply and it relies on homogeneity of intertemporal preferences. Allowing for government’s equity concerns, I show that the model rationalizes the tax practice. (JEL D15, G51, H21, H23, H24, H31, J22)
{"title":"Taxation of Consumption and Labor Income: A Quantitative Approach","authors":"Francesca Parodi","doi":"10.1257/mac.20200289","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20200289","url":null,"abstract":"I quantitatively characterize optimal consumption and labor income taxes in a structural life-cycle model of household consumption, saving, and employment choices that allows for irreversibility of durable goods and preference heterogeneity. I find that durables should be subsidized and nondurables should be taxed at a uniform rate. The durable subsidy is driven by the life-cycle features of the model together with durables’ irreversibility and borrowing constraints. Uniform taxation on nondurables holds under exogenous and endogenous—fully or weakly separable—labor supply and it relies on homogeneity of intertemporal preferences. Allowing for government’s equity concerns, I show that the model rationalizes the tax practice. (JEL D15, G51, H21, H23, H24, H31, J22)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136119741","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Does the Federal Reserve have an “information advantage” in forecasting macroeconomic variables beyond what is known to private sector forecasters? And are market participants reacting only to monetary policy shocks or also to information on the future state of the economy that the Federal Reserve communicates in its announcements via an “information channel”? This paper investigates the evolution of both the information advantage and the information channel over time. Although they appear to be important historically, we find substantially weaker empirical evidence of their presence in recent years once instabilities are accounted for. (JEL C53, E32, E37, E47, E52, E58)
{"title":"Has the Information Channel of Monetary Policy Disappeared? Revisiting the Empirical Evidence","authors":"Lukas Hoesch, Barbara Rossi, Tatevik Sekhposyan","doi":"10.1257/mac.20200068","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20200068","url":null,"abstract":"Does the Federal Reserve have an “information advantage” in forecasting macroeconomic variables beyond what is known to private sector forecasters? And are market participants reacting only to monetary policy shocks or also to information on the future state of the economy that the Federal Reserve communicates in its announcements via an “information channel”? This paper investigates the evolution of both the information advantage and the information channel over time. Although they appear to be important historically, we find substantially weaker empirical evidence of their presence in recent years once instabilities are accounted for. (JEL C53, E32, E37, E47, E52, E58)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"46 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136011788","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We document considerable scope of heterogeneity within the unemployed, especially when they are divided along eligibility for and receipt of unemployment insurance (UI). We study the implications of this heterogeneity on UI’s insurance-incentive trade-off using a heterogeneous-agent job search model capable of matching the wealth and income differences that distinguish UI recipients from nonrecipients. Insurance benefits are larger for UI recipients who are predominantly wealth poor. Meanwhile, incentive costs are nonmonotonic in wealth because the poorest individuals, who value employment, exhibit weak responses. Differential elasticities imply that accounting for the composition of recipients is material to the evaluation of UI’s insurance-incentive trade-off. (JEL D91, E24, E32, J64, J65)
{"title":"Labor Market Responses to Unemployment Insurance: The Role of Heterogeneity","authors":"Serdar Birinci, Kurt See","doi":"10.1257/mac.20200057","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20200057","url":null,"abstract":"We document considerable scope of heterogeneity within the unemployed, especially when they are divided along eligibility for and receipt of unemployment insurance (UI). We study the implications of this heterogeneity on UI’s insurance-incentive trade-off using a heterogeneous-agent job search model capable of matching the wealth and income differences that distinguish UI recipients from nonrecipients. Insurance benefits are larger for UI recipients who are predominantly wealth poor. Meanwhile, incentive costs are nonmonotonic in wealth because the poorest individuals, who value employment, exhibit weak responses. Differential elasticities imply that accounting for the composition of recipients is material to the evaluation of UI’s insurance-incentive trade-off. (JEL D91, E24, E32, J64, J65)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136260253","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We document considerable scope of heterogeneity within the unemployed, especially when they are divided along eligibility for and receipt of unemployment insurance (UI). We study the implications of this heterogeneity on UI’s insurance-incentive trade-off using a heterogeneous-agent job search model capable of matching the wealth and income differences that distinguish UI recipients from nonrecipients. Insurance benefits are larger for UI recipients who are predominantly wealth poor. Meanwhile, incentive costs are nonmonotonic in wealth because the poorest individuals, who value employment, exhibit weak responses. Differential elasticities imply that accounting for the composition of recipients is material to the evaluation of UI’s insurance-incentive trade-off. (JEL D91, E24, E32, J64, J65)
{"title":"Labor Market Responses to Unemployment Insurance: The Role of Heterogeneity","authors":"S. Birinci, K. See","doi":"10.20955/wp.2019.022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/wp.2019.022","url":null,"abstract":"We document considerable scope of heterogeneity within the unemployed, especially when they are divided along eligibility for and receipt of unemployment insurance (UI). We study the implications of this heterogeneity on UI’s insurance-incentive trade-off using a heterogeneous-agent job search model capable of matching the wealth and income differences that distinguish UI recipients from nonrecipients. Insurance benefits are larger for UI recipients who are predominantly wealth poor. Meanwhile, incentive costs are nonmonotonic in wealth because the poorest individuals, who value employment, exhibit weak responses. Differential elasticities imply that accounting for the composition of recipients is material to the evaluation of UI’s insurance-incentive trade-off. (JEL D91, E24, E32, J64, J65)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"3 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72541687","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jonas E Arias, Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, J. Rubio-Ramirez, Minchul Shin
We assess the causal impact of pandemic-induced lockdowns on health and macroeconomic outcomes and measure the trade-off between containing the spread of a pandemic and economic activity. To do so, we estimate an epidemiological model with time-varying parameters and use its output as information for estimating SVARs and LPs that quantify the causal effects of nonpharmaceutical policy interventions. We apply our approach to Belgian data for the COVID-19 pandemic during 2020. We find that additional government-mandated mobility curtailments would have reduced deaths at a very small cost in terms of GDP. (JEL E23, H51, I12, I15, I18)
{"title":"The Causal Effects of Lockdown Policies on Health and Macroeconomic Outcomes","authors":"Jonas E Arias, Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, J. Rubio-Ramirez, Minchul Shin","doi":"10.1257/mac.20210367","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20210367","url":null,"abstract":"We assess the causal impact of pandemic-induced lockdowns on health and macroeconomic outcomes and measure the trade-off between containing the spread of a pandemic and economic activity. To do so, we estimate an epidemiological model with time-varying parameters and use its output as information for estimating SVARs and LPs that quantify the causal effects of nonpharmaceutical policy interventions. We apply our approach to Belgian data for the COVID-19 pandemic during 2020. We find that additional government-mandated mobility curtailments would have reduced deaths at a very small cost in terms of GDP. (JEL E23, H51, I12, I15, I18)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"133 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78460919","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Remi Jedwab, Paul Romer, Asif M. Islam, Roberto Samaniego
We (i) study wage-experience profiles and obtain measures of returns to potential work experience using data from about 24 million individuals in 1,084 surveys and census samples across 145 countries; (ii) show that workers in developed countries accumulate twice as much human capital at work as those in developing countries; (iii) use a simple accounting framework to find that the contribution of work experience and education to human capital accumulation and economic development might be equally important; and (iv) employ panel regressions to investigate how changes in the returns over time correlate with several factors such as economic recessions, transitions, and human capital stocks. (JEL D12, I25, I26, J24, J31, O15)
{"title":"Human Capital Accumulation at Work: Estimates for the World and Implications for Development","authors":"Remi Jedwab, Paul Romer, Asif M. Islam, Roberto Samaniego","doi":"10.1257/mac.20210002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20210002","url":null,"abstract":"We (i) study wage-experience profiles and obtain measures of returns to potential work experience using data from about 24 million individuals in 1,084 surveys and census samples across 145 countries; (ii) show that workers in developed countries accumulate twice as much human capital at work as those in developing countries; (iii) use a simple accounting framework to find that the contribution of work experience and education to human capital accumulation and economic development might be equally important; and (iv) employ panel regressions to investigate how changes in the returns over time correlate with several factors such as economic recessions, transitions, and human capital stocks. (JEL D12, I25, I26, J24, J31, O15)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136184903","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We derive closed-form expressions for the optimal inflation target under Calvo and menu-cost frictions in a model featuring a product life cycle and multiple sources of heterogeneity across goods. We show that both frictions deliver the same optimal target and how it can be estimated from observed trends in relative prices. Using micro price data underlying the CPI in the United Kingdom, we document that relative prices fall over the product lifetime in most expenditure items. This causes the optimal inflation target to be positive, with our baseline estimate for the United Kingdom being equal to 2.6 percent in 2016. The optimal target has steadily increased over the prior two decades due to an acceleration in the rates of relative price decline over time. (JEL C51, D15, E31, L11)
{"title":"Estimating the Optimal Inflation Target from Trends in Relative Prices","authors":"Klaus Adam, Henning Weber","doi":"10.1257/mac.20200320","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20200320","url":null,"abstract":"We derive closed-form expressions for the optimal inflation target under Calvo and menu-cost frictions in a model featuring a product life cycle and multiple sources of heterogeneity across goods. We show that both frictions deliver the same optimal target and how it can be estimated from observed trends in relative prices. Using micro price data underlying the CPI in the United Kingdom, we document that relative prices fall over the product lifetime in most expenditure items. This causes the optimal inflation target to be positive, with our baseline estimate for the United Kingdom being equal to 2.6 percent in 2016. The optimal target has steadily increased over the prior two decades due to an acceleration in the rates of relative price decline over time. (JEL C51, D15, E31, L11)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136260251","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We use a dataset with prices and spending on consumer packaged goods matched at the bar code level across the United States and Mexico to measure the price index in Mexico relative to the United States. Mexican prices relative to the United States are 23 percent lower compared to the International Comparisons Project’s (ICP) price index. We decompose the 23 percent gap into the biases from imputation, sampling, quality, and variety. Quality bias increases Mexican prices by 48 percent. Imputation, sampling, and variety bias lowers Mexican prices by 11 percent, 13 percent, and 33 percent, respectively. (JEL C43, E31, I31, O11, O12)
{"title":"Measuring the Cost of Living in Mexico and the United States","authors":"David Argente, Chang-tai Hsieh, Munseob Lee","doi":"10.1257/mac.20200486","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20200486","url":null,"abstract":"We use a dataset with prices and spending on consumer packaged goods matched at the bar code level across the United States and Mexico to measure the price index in Mexico relative to the United States. Mexican prices relative to the United States are 23 percent lower compared to the International Comparisons Project’s (ICP) price index. We decompose the 23 percent gap into the biases from imputation, sampling, quality, and variety. Quality bias increases Mexican prices by 48 percent. Imputation, sampling, and variety bias lowers Mexican prices by 11 percent, 13 percent, and 33 percent, respectively. (JEL C43, E31, I31, O11, O12)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"37 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83150832","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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