We compile a new database of grocery prices in Argentina. We find uniform pricing both within and across regions—i.e., prices almost do not vary within the stores of a chain. In line with uniform pricing, prices in stores of chains operating in one region react to changes in regional employment while prices in multiregion chains do not. Using a quantitative regional model with multiregion firms and uniform pricing, we find a one-half smaller elasticity of prices to a regional than an aggregate shock. This result highlights that some caution may be necessary when using regional shocks to estimate aggregate elasticities. (JEL D22, L11, L81, O14, O18, R32)
{"title":"Macroeconomic Implications of Uniform Pricing","authors":"Diego Daruich, Julian Kozlowski","doi":"10.1257/mac.20210172","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20210172","url":null,"abstract":"We compile a new database of grocery prices in Argentina. We find uniform pricing both within and across regions—i.e., prices almost do not vary within the stores of a chain. In line with uniform pricing, prices in stores of chains operating in one region react to changes in regional employment while prices in multiregion chains do not. Using a quantitative regional model with multiregion firms and uniform pricing, we find a one-half smaller elasticity of prices to a regional than an aggregate shock. This result highlights that some caution may be necessary when using regional shocks to estimate aggregate elasticities. (JEL D22, L11, L81, O14, O18, R32)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136260259","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We estimate the macroeconomic impacts of carbon taxes on GDP and employment growth rates using 30 years of data on carbon taxation in various European countries. We find no evidence for a negative impact on employment or GDP growth but rather find a zero to modest positive impact. We also find a cumulative emissions reduction on the order of 4 to 6 percent for a $40/ton CO 2 tax covering 30 percent of emissions. Reductions would likely be greater for a broad-based US carbon tax since European carbon taxes typically do not cover those sectors with the lowest marginal abatement costs. (JEL E23, E24, H23, Q54, Q58)
{"title":"The Macroeconomic Impact of Europe’s Carbon Taxes","authors":"Gilbert E. Metcalf, James H. Stock","doi":"10.1257/mac.20210052","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20210052","url":null,"abstract":"We estimate the macroeconomic impacts of carbon taxes on GDP and employment growth rates using 30 years of data on carbon taxation in various European countries. We find no evidence for a negative impact on employment or GDP growth but rather find a zero to modest positive impact. We also find a cumulative emissions reduction on the order of 4 to 6 percent for a $40/ton CO 2 tax covering 30 percent of emissions. Reductions would likely be greater for a broad-based US carbon tax since European carbon taxes typically do not cover those sectors with the lowest marginal abatement costs. (JEL E23, E24, H23, Q54, Q58)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"35 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135314810","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Olivier Coibion, Dimitris Georgarakos, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Maarten van Rooij
We implement a survey of Dutch households in which random subsets of respondents receive information about inflation. The resulting exogenously generated variation in inflation expectations is used to assess how expectations affect consumption decisions. The causal effects of reduced inflation expectations on nondurable spending are imprecisely estimated, but there is a sharp positive effect on durable spending. This is likely driven by the fact that Dutch households seem to become more optimistic about their real income and aggregate spending when they decrease their inflation expectations. We find little role for cognitive or financial constraints in explaining spending responses. (JEL C83, D12, D83, D84, E21, E31)
{"title":"How Does Consumption Respond to News about Inflation? Field Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial","authors":"Olivier Coibion, Dimitris Georgarakos, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Maarten van Rooij","doi":"10.1257/mac.20200445","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20200445","url":null,"abstract":"We implement a survey of Dutch households in which random subsets of respondents receive information about inflation. The resulting exogenously generated variation in inflation expectations is used to assess how expectations affect consumption decisions. The causal effects of reduced inflation expectations on nondurable spending are imprecisely estimated, but there is a sharp positive effect on durable spending. This is likely driven by the fact that Dutch households seem to become more optimistic about their real income and aggregate spending when they decrease their inflation expectations. We find little role for cognitive or financial constraints in explaining spending responses. (JEL C83, D12, D83, D84, E21, E31)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"330 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136185127","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Over the last 15 years, individual households have concentrated their spending on a few preferred products. However, this is not driven by “superstar” products capturing larger market shares. Instead, households increasingly purchase different products from each other. As a result, aggregate spending concentration has decreased. We develop a model of heterogeneous household demand and use it to conclude that increasing product variety drives these divergent trends. When more products are available, households select products better matched to their tastes. This delivers welfare gains from selection equal to about half a percent per year in the categories covered by our data. (JEL D12, D91, E21, L66)
{"title":"The Rise of Niche Consumption","authors":"Brent Neiman, Joseph Vavra","doi":"10.1257/mac.20210263","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20210263","url":null,"abstract":"Over the last 15 years, individual households have concentrated their spending on a few preferred products. However, this is not driven by “superstar” products capturing larger market shares. Instead, households increasingly purchase different products from each other. As a result, aggregate spending concentration has decreased. We develop a model of heterogeneous household demand and use it to conclude that increasing product variety drives these divergent trends. When more products are available, households select products better matched to their tastes. This delivers welfare gains from selection equal to about half a percent per year in the categories covered by our data. (JEL D12, D91, E21, L66)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136185126","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We study optimal tax policies with human capital investment and retirement savings for present-biased agents. Agents are heterogeneous in their innate ability and make risky education investments, which determines their labor productivity. We demonstrate that the optimal distortions vary with education status. In particular, the optimal policy encourages human capital investment with savings incentives. Our implementation uses income-contingent student loans and existing retirement policies, augmented by a new tax instrument that subsidizes retirement savings for college graduates. The instrument mimics the latest policy proposals by allowing employers to offer 401(k) matching contributions proportional to student loans repayment. (JEL G51, H21, H24, I26, J24, J26)
{"title":"Efficient Consolidation of Incentives for Education and Retirement Savings","authors":"Radoslaw Paluszynski, Pei Cheng Yu","doi":"10.1257/mac.20200181","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20200181","url":null,"abstract":"We study optimal tax policies with human capital investment and retirement savings for present-biased agents. Agents are heterogeneous in their innate ability and make risky education investments, which determines their labor productivity. We demonstrate that the optimal distortions vary with education status. In particular, the optimal policy encourages human capital investment with savings incentives. Our implementation uses income-contingent student loans and existing retirement policies, augmented by a new tax instrument that subsidizes retirement savings for college graduates. The instrument mimics the latest policy proposals by allowing employers to offer 401(k) matching contributions proportional to student loans repayment. (JEL G51, H21, H24, I26, J24, J26)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"66 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135264750","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Ana M. Fernandes, Peter J. Klenow, S. Meleshchuk, Martha Denisse Pierola, A. Rodrı́guez-Clare
In benchmark trade models that feature a constant trade elasticity, bilateral exports vary entirely on the intensive margin (exports per firm) or entirely on the extensive margin (number of firms). Our empirical analysis documents that roughly one-half of this variation occurs along each margin, implying that the trade elasticity is not constant. We estimate a generalized Melitz model with a joint log-normal distribution for firm productivity, fixed costs, and demand shifters. Using exact-hat algebra, we quantify how trade costs affect trade flows and welfare. Welfare effects are similar to those in the Melitz-Pareto model, but implied trade flows differ significantly. (JEL D22, D24, D43, F12, F14, L13)
{"title":"The Intensive Margin in Trade: How Big and How Important?","authors":"Ana M. Fernandes, Peter J. Klenow, S. Meleshchuk, Martha Denisse Pierola, A. Rodrı́guez-Clare","doi":"10.1257/mac.20200269","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20200269","url":null,"abstract":"In benchmark trade models that feature a constant trade elasticity, bilateral exports vary entirely on the intensive margin (exports per firm) or entirely on the extensive margin (number of firms). Our empirical analysis documents that roughly one-half of this variation occurs along each margin, implying that the trade elasticity is not constant. We estimate a generalized Melitz model with a joint log-normal distribution for firm productivity, fixed costs, and demand shifters. Using exact-hat algebra, we quantify how trade costs affect trade flows and welfare. Welfare effects are similar to those in the Melitz-Pareto model, but implied trade flows differ significantly. (JEL D22, D24, D43, F12, F14, L13)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85973924","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Using monthly data on temporary trade barriers (TTBs), we estimate the dynamic employment effects of protectionism through vertical production linkages. First, exploiting high-frequency data and TTB procedural details, we identify trade policy shocks exogenous to economic fundamentals. We then use input-output tables to construct measures of protectionism affecting downstream producers. Finally, we estimate panel local projections using the identified trade policy shocks. Protectionism has small and insignificant beneficial effects in protected industries. The effects in downstream industries are negative, sizable, and significant. The employment decline follows an increase in intermediate input and final goods prices and a decline in stock market returns. (JEL E24, F13, F14, F16, G14, L14)
{"title":"Self-Harming Trade Policy? Protectionism and Production Networks","authors":"Alessandro Barattieri, Matteo Cacciatore","doi":"10.1257/mac.20190445","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20190445","url":null,"abstract":"Using monthly data on temporary trade barriers (TTBs), we estimate the dynamic employment effects of protectionism through vertical production linkages. First, exploiting high-frequency data and TTB procedural details, we identify trade policy shocks exogenous to economic fundamentals. We then use input-output tables to construct measures of protectionism affecting downstream producers. Finally, we estimate panel local projections using the identified trade policy shocks. Protectionism has small and insignificant beneficial effects in protected industries. The effects in downstream industries are negative, sizable, and significant. The employment decline follows an increase in intermediate input and final goods prices and a decline in stock market returns. (JEL E24, F13, F14, F16, G14, L14)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136163639","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Population aging is expected to slow US economic growth. We use variation in the predetermined component of population aging across states to estimate the impact of aging on growth in GDP per capita for 1980–2010. We find that each 10 percent increase in the fraction of the population age 60+ decreased per capita GDP by 5.5 percent. One-third of the reduction arose from slower employment growth; two-thirds due to slower labor productivity growth. Labor compensation and wages also declined in response. Our estimate implies population aging reduced the growth rate in GDP per capita by 0.3 percentage points per year during 1980–2010. (JEL E23, E24, J11, J14, J31, O47)
{"title":"The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force, and Productivity","authors":"Nicole Maestas, Kathleen J. Mullen, David Powell","doi":"10.1257/mac.20190196","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20190196","url":null,"abstract":"Population aging is expected to slow US economic growth. We use variation in the predetermined component of population aging across states to estimate the impact of aging on growth in GDP per capita for 1980–2010. We find that each 10 percent increase in the fraction of the population age 60+ decreased per capita GDP by 5.5 percent. One-third of the reduction arose from slower employment growth; two-thirds due to slower labor productivity growth. Labor compensation and wages also declined in response. Our estimate implies population aging reduced the growth rate in GDP per capita by 0.3 percentage points per year during 1980–2010. (JEL E23, E24, J11, J14, J31, O47)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"56 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135822416","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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