A common view states that central bank releases decrease central banks' own information about the economy and are harmful if about inefficient disturbances, such as cost-push shocks. This paper shows how neither is true in a microfounded macroeconomic model in which households and firms learn from central bank releases and the central bank learns from the observation of firm prices. Central bank releases make private sector and central bank expectations closer to common knowledge. This helps transmit dispersed information between the private sector and the central bank. As a result, the release of additional central bank information decreases the central bank's own uncertainty and can be beneficial, irrespective of the efficacy of macroeconomic fluctuations. A calibrated example suggests that the benefits of disclosure are substantial. (JEL D82, D83, D84, E12, E52, E58)
{"title":"Learning by Sharing: Monetary Policy and Common Knowledge","authors":"Alexandre N. Kohlhas","doi":"10.1257/mac.20190311","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20190311","url":null,"abstract":"A common view states that central bank releases decrease central banks' own information about the economy and are harmful if about inefficient disturbances, such as cost-push shocks. This paper shows how neither is true in a microfounded macroeconomic model in which households and firms learn from central bank releases and the central bank learns from the observation of firm prices. Central bank releases make private sector and central bank expectations closer to common knowledge. This helps transmit dispersed information between the private sector and the central bank. As a result, the release of additional central bank information decreases the central bank's own uncertainty and can be beneficial, irrespective of the efficacy of macroeconomic fluctuations. A calibrated example suggests that the benefits of disclosure are substantial. (JEL D82, D83, D84, E12, E52, E58)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83128382","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Harald Fadinger, C. Ghiglino, Mariya Teteryatnikova
We study the importance of input-output (IO) linkages and sectoral productivity (TFP) in determining cross-country income differences. We find that while highly connected sectors are more productive than the typical sector in poor countries, the opposite is true in rich ones. To assess the quantitative role of linkages and sectoral TFP differences in cross-country income differences, we decompose cross-country income variation using a multisector general equilibrium model. We find that IO linkages substantially amplify fundamental sectoral TFP variation, but this amplification is significantly weaker than the one suggested by a simple IO model with an aggregate intermediate good. (JEL D57, E16, E23, O11, O47)
{"title":"Income Differences, Productivity, and Input-Output Networks","authors":"Harald Fadinger, C. Ghiglino, Mariya Teteryatnikova","doi":"10.1257/mac.20180342","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20180342","url":null,"abstract":"We study the importance of input-output (IO) linkages and sectoral productivity (TFP) in determining cross-country income differences. We find that while highly connected sectors are more productive than the typical sector in poor countries, the opposite is true in rich ones. To assess the quantitative role of linkages and sectoral TFP differences in cross-country income differences, we decompose cross-country income variation using a multisector general equilibrium model. We find that IO linkages substantially amplify fundamental sectoral TFP variation, but this amplification is significantly weaker than the one suggested by a simple IO model with an aggregate intermediate good. (JEL D57, E16, E23, O11, O47)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"84 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83259164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper studies the interaction between barriers to firm entry and distortions to allocative efficiency in a standard model of firm dynamics. We derive a strategy to infer entry barriers based on cross-country differences in the firm size distribution and idiosyncratic distortions. The inferred barriers resemble regulation-based indicators in advanced economies but are substantially higher in middle- and low-income countries. Regulation-based indicators cannot account for cross-country differences in average firm size and underestimate the aggregate productivity gains associated with their removal by up to 8 percent on average. (JEL D21, D24, H25, L11, L60)
{"title":"Entry Barriers, Idiosyncratic Distortions, and the Firm Size Distribution","authors":"Roberto N. Fattal-Jaef","doi":"10.1257/mac.20200234","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20200234","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies the interaction between barriers to firm entry and distortions to allocative efficiency in a standard model of firm dynamics. We derive a strategy to infer entry barriers based on cross-country differences in the firm size distribution and idiosyncratic distortions. The inferred barriers resemble regulation-based indicators in advanced economies but are substantially higher in middle- and low-income countries. Regulation-based indicators cannot account for cross-country differences in average firm size and underestimate the aggregate productivity gains associated with their removal by up to 8 percent on average. (JEL D21, D24, H25, L11, L60)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"20 5","pages":"416-468"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138520844","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Studies based on natural experiments find that consumption responds strongly and significantly to a transitory variation in income, while semistructural estimations find no pass-through of transitory shocks to consumption. I develop a more robust semistructural estimator that relaxes the assumption that log consumption is a random walk. The robust pass-through estimate is significant and large, implying a yearly marginal propensity to consume of 0.32, close to the natural experiment findings. The robust estimator performs well in numerical simulations of a life cycle model, while nonrobust estimators do not. The difference between the two in the simulations is similar to their difference in the survey data. (JEL D15, E21, J11)
{"title":"Does Consumption Respond to Transitory Shocks? Reconciling Natural Experiments and Semistructural Methods","authors":"J. Commault","doi":"10.1257/mac.20190296","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20190296","url":null,"abstract":"Studies based on natural experiments find that consumption responds strongly and significantly to a transitory variation in income, while semistructural estimations find no pass-through of transitory shocks to consumption. I develop a more robust semistructural estimator that relaxes the assumption that log consumption is a random walk. The robust pass-through estimate is significant and large, implying a yearly marginal propensity to consume of 0.32, close to the natural experiment findings. The robust estimator performs well in numerical simulations of a life cycle model, while nonrobust estimators do not. The difference between the two in the simulations is similar to their difference in the survey data. (JEL D15, E21, J11)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79501057","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Since sectors differ in their sensitivity to interest rates, monetary policy produces inefficient sectoral fluctuations. In a model with sectoral heterogeneity, I show that policymakers should weight sectors proportionally to their interest elasticities, account for dynamic demand effects from durable goods, and systematically utilize forward guidance to reduce sectoral volatility. A calibrated model confirms these recommendations and finds that neglecting sectoral volatility produces substantial welfare losses. The best-performing policy rule stabilizes a sectorally weighted measure of inflation, plus lags of past durable inflation. (JEL E12, E23, E24, E31, E32, E43, E52)
{"title":"Sectoral Heterogeneity and Monetary Policy","authors":"Jonathan Kreamer","doi":"10.1257/mac.20190248","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20190248","url":null,"abstract":"Since sectors differ in their sensitivity to interest rates, monetary policy produces inefficient sectoral fluctuations. In a model with sectoral heterogeneity, I show that policymakers should weight sectors proportionally to their interest elasticities, account for dynamic demand effects from durable goods, and systematically utilize forward guidance to reduce sectoral volatility. A calibrated model confirms these recommendations and finds that neglecting sectoral volatility produces substantial welfare losses. The best-performing policy rule stabilizes a sectorally weighted measure of inflation, plus lags of past durable inflation. (JEL E12, E23, E24, E31, E32, E43, E52)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82353529","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper argues that high marginal labor income tax rates on top earners are an effective tool for social insurance even when households have high labor supply elasticity, households make dynamic savings decisions, and policies have general equilibrium effects. We construct a large-scale overlapping generations model with uninsurable labor productivity risk, show that it has a realistic wealth distribution, and numerically characterize the optimal top marginal rate. We find that marginal tax rates for top 1 percent earners of 79 percent are optimal as long as the model earnings and wealth distributions display a degree of concentration as observed in US data. (JEL D15, D31, H21, H24, H55, J22, J31)
{"title":"High Marginal Tax Rates on the Top 1 Percent? Lessons from a Life-Cycle Model with Idiosyncratic Income Risk","authors":"F. Kindermann, Dirk Krueger","doi":"10.1257/mac.20150170","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20150170","url":null,"abstract":"This paper argues that high marginal labor income tax rates on top earners are an effective tool for social insurance even when households have high labor supply elasticity, households make dynamic savings decisions, and policies have general equilibrium effects. We construct a large-scale overlapping generations model with uninsurable labor productivity risk, show that it has a realistic wealth distribution, and numerically characterize the optimal top marginal rate. We find that marginal tax rates for top 1 percent earners of 79 percent are optimal as long as the model earnings and wealth distributions display a degree of concentration as observed in US data. (JEL D15, D31, H21, H24, H55, J22, J31)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"78 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90616629","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
I study efficiency and optimal monetary policy in a two-country monetary union with frictional labor markets. With heterogeneity in labor market frictions, the constrained efficient allocation generically cannot be achieved even if productivity shocks affecting each country are the same. The second-best optimal policy targets smaller inflation and output gaps in the more sclerotic labor market. A quantitative calibration to the eurozone implies welfare gains from redefining the union’s inflation target to put more weight on its sclerotic members. (JEL E23, E24, E31, E52, F33, F45)
{"title":"Optimal Currency Areas with Labor Market Frictions","authors":"Rohan Kekre","doi":"10.1257/mac.20190002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20190002","url":null,"abstract":"I study efficiency and optimal monetary policy in a two-country monetary union with frictional labor markets. With heterogeneity in labor market frictions, the constrained efficient allocation generically cannot be achieved even if productivity shocks affecting each country are the same. The second-best optimal policy targets smaller inflation and output gaps in the more sclerotic labor market. A quantitative calibration to the eurozone implies welfare gains from redefining the union’s inflation target to put more weight on its sclerotic members. (JEL E23, E24, E31, E52, F33, F45)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"68 3","pages":"44-95"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138520847","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper examines the role of agricultural diversity in the process of development. Using data from US counties and exploiting climate-induced variation in agricultural production patterns, I show that mid-nineteenth-century agricultural diversity had positive long-run effects on population density and income per capita. During the Second Industrial Revolution, agricultural diversity fostered industrialization, diversification within manufacturing, patent activity, formation of new labor skills, and the expansion of knowledge- and skill-intensive industries. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that diversity spurs the acquisition of new ideas and new skills because of the presence of cross-sector spillovers and complementarities. (JEL N31, N32, N51, N52, N91, N92, Q10)
{"title":"Agricultural Diversity, Structural Change, and Long-Run Development: Evidence from the United States","authors":"Martín Fiszbein","doi":"10.1257/mac.20190285","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20190285","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the role of agricultural diversity in the process of development. Using data from US counties and exploiting climate-induced variation in agricultural production patterns, I show that mid-nineteenth-century agricultural diversity had positive long-run effects on population density and income per capita. During the Second Industrial Revolution, agricultural diversity fostered industrialization, diversification within manufacturing, patent activity, formation of new labor skills, and the expansion of knowledge- and skill-intensive industries. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that diversity spurs the acquisition of new ideas and new skills because of the presence of cross-sector spillovers and complementarities. (JEL N31, N32, N51, N52, N91, N92, Q10)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"594 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78945633","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper provides a unified framework for quantifying the cross-country and cross-sector interactions among trade, innovation, and knowledge diffusion. This framework is used to study the effect of trade liberalization in an endogenous growth model in which comparative advantage and the stock of knowledge are determined by innovation and diffusion. The model is calibrated to match observed cross-country and cross-sector heterogeneity in production, innovation efficiency, and knowledge spillovers. The counterfactual analysis shows that a reduction in trade costs induces a reallocation of R&D and comparative advantage across sectors. Heterogeneous knowledge diffusion amplifies the specialization effects of trade-induced R&D reallocation, becoming an important source of welfare. (JEL F12, F14, O33, O34, O41)
{"title":"Knowledge Diffusion, Trade, and Innovation across Countries and Sectors","authors":"Jie Cai, Nan Li, Ana Maria Santacreu","doi":"10.1257/mac.20200084","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20200084","url":null,"abstract":"This paper provides a unified framework for quantifying the cross-country and cross-sector interactions among trade, innovation, and knowledge diffusion. This framework is used to study the effect of trade liberalization in an endogenous growth model in which comparative advantage and the stock of knowledge are determined by innovation and diffusion. The model is calibrated to match observed cross-country and cross-sector heterogeneity in production, innovation efficiency, and knowledge spillovers. The counterfactual analysis shows that a reduction in trade costs induces a reallocation of R&D and comparative advantage across sectors. Heterogeneous knowledge diffusion amplifies the specialization effects of trade-induced R&D reallocation, becoming an important source of welfare. (JEL F12, F14, O33, O34, O41)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75665020","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Using the Quarterly Workforce Indicators database, we document that a significant amount of the decline in labor market turnover during the last two decades is accounted for by the decline in employment spells that last just one or two quarters. This phenomenon is pervasive: short-term employment spells have declined across industries, firm size categories, demographic groups, and geographic regions. Using a search-and-matching model in the Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides tradition that incorporates noisy signals about the quality of a worker-firm match, we argue that improved screening by workers and firms can account for much of the decline in short-lived employment spells. (JEL E24, J23, J41, J63, M51)
{"title":"Declining Worker Turnover: The Role of Short-Duration Employment Spells","authors":"Michael Pries, Richard Rogerson","doi":"10.1257/mac.20190230","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20190230","url":null,"abstract":"Using the Quarterly Workforce Indicators database, we document that a significant amount of the decline in labor market turnover during the last two decades is accounted for by the decline in employment spells that last just one or two quarters. This phenomenon is pervasive: short-term employment spells have declined across industries, firm size categories, demographic groups, and geographic regions. Using a search-and-matching model in the Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides tradition that incorporates noisy signals about the quality of a worker-firm match, we argue that improved screening by workers and firms can account for much of the decline in short-lived employment spells. (JEL E24, J23, J41, J63, M51)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"45 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76429975","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：