How large are the aggregate productivity losses from the misallocation of resources across firms? With endogenous selection, microfrictions can induce extensive margin misallocation among firms: too many unproductive firms are active (Zombies), and too many productive firms are inactive (Shadows). Therefore, the same set of measured distortions potentially induces much larger aggregate productivity losses, as the composition of firms is shifted toward unproductive active firms. I develop and calibrate a model with plant-level microdata for Indonesia to quantify aggregate welfare in the presence of extensive margin misallocation. My estimates show that selection can magnify aggregate TFP losses from microdistortions by over 40 percent compared to existing estimates. Realistic values of measurement error even increase the relative importance of extensive margin misallocation. (JEL D22, D24, E23, J24, J31, O14, O15)
{"title":"Micro-Level Misallocation and Selection","authors":"Mu-Jeung Yang","doi":"10.1257/mac.20160253","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20160253","url":null,"abstract":"How large are the aggregate productivity losses from the misallocation of resources across firms? With endogenous selection, microfrictions can induce extensive margin misallocation among firms: too many unproductive firms are active (Zombies), and too many productive firms are inactive (Shadows). Therefore, the same set of measured distortions potentially induces much larger aggregate productivity losses, as the composition of firms is shifted toward unproductive active firms. I develop and calibrate a model with plant-level microdata for Indonesia to quantify aggregate welfare in the presence of extensive margin misallocation. My estimates show that selection can magnify aggregate TFP losses from microdistortions by over 40 percent compared to existing estimates. Realistic values of measurement error even increase the relative importance of extensive margin misallocation. (JEL D22, D24, E23, J24, J31, O14, O15)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76820823","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We develop a model where selection into marriage and household search generate a marital wage premium. Beyond selection, married individuals earn higher wages for two reasons. First, income pooling within a joint household raises risk-averse individuals’ reservation wages. Second, married individuals climb the job ladder faster, as they internalize that higher wages increase their partner’s selectivity over offers. Specialization according to comparative advantage in search generates a premium that increases in spousal education, as in the data. Quantitatively, household search explains 10–33 percent and 20–58 percent of the premium for males and females, respectively, and accounts for its increase with spousal education. (JEL D83, J12, J16, J24, J31, J64)
{"title":"Household Search and the Marital Wage Premium","authors":"Laura Pilossoph, Shu Lin Wee","doi":"10.1257/mac.20180092","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20180092","url":null,"abstract":"We develop a model where selection into marriage and household search generate a marital wage premium. Beyond selection, married individuals earn higher wages for two reasons. First, income pooling within a joint household raises risk-averse individuals’ reservation wages. Second, married individuals climb the job ladder faster, as they internalize that higher wages increase their partner’s selectivity over offers. Specialization according to comparative advantage in search generates a premium that increases in spousal education, as in the data. Quantitatively, household search explains 10–33 percent and 20–58 percent of the premium for males and females, respectively, and accounts for its increase with spousal education. (JEL D83, J12, J16, J24, J31, J64)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"256 ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72422403","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We document that government spending multipliers depend on the population age structure. Using the variation in military spending and birth rates across US states, we show that the local fiscal multiplier is 1.5 and increases with the population share of young people, implying multipliers of 1.1–1.9 in the interquartile range. A parsimonious life cycle open economy New Keynesian model with credit market imperfections and age-specific differences in labor supply and demand explains 87 percent of the relationship between local multipliers and demographics. The model implies that the US population aging between 1980 and 2015 caused a 38 percent drop in national government spending multipliers. (JEL D15, E12, E24, E62, J11, J22, J23)
{"title":"The Young, the Old, and the Government: Demographics and Fiscal Multipliers","authors":"Henrique S. Basso, Omar Rachedi","doi":"10.1257/mac.20190174","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20190174","url":null,"abstract":"We document that government spending multipliers depend on the population age structure. Using the variation in military spending and birth rates across US states, we show that the local fiscal multiplier is 1.5 and increases with the population share of young people, implying multipliers of 1.1–1.9 in the interquartile range. A parsimonious life cycle open economy New Keynesian model with credit market imperfections and age-specific differences in labor supply and demand explains 87 percent of the relationship between local multipliers and demographics. The model implies that the US population aging between 1980 and 2015 caused a 38 percent drop in national government spending multipliers. (JEL D15, E12, E24, E62, J11, J22, J23)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138520828","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We develop a random-matching model to study the price dynamics of monies produced privately according to a time-consuming mining technology. For our leading example, there exists a unique equilibrium where the value of money increases over time and reaches a steady state. There is also a continuum of perfect-foresight equilibria where the price of money inflates and bursts gradually over time. Initially, money is held for a speculative motive, but it acquires a transactional role as it becomes sufficiently abundant. We study fiat, commodity, and crypto monies, endogenous acceptability, and adopt implementation and equilibrium approaches. (JEL E31, E42, E51, N13, N14, N23, N24)
{"title":"Money Mining and Price Dynamics","authors":"Michael Choi, Guillaume Rocheteau","doi":"10.1257/mac.20200034","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20200034","url":null,"abstract":"We develop a random-matching model to study the price dynamics of monies produced privately according to a time-consuming mining technology. For our leading example, there exists a unique equilibrium where the value of money increases over time and reaches a steady state. There is also a continuum of perfect-foresight equilibria where the price of money inflates and bursts gradually over time. Initially, money is held for a speculative motive, but it acquires a transactional role as it becomes sufficiently abundant. We study fiat, commodity, and crypto monies, endogenous acceptability, and adopt implementation and equilibrium approaches. (JEL E31, E42, E51, N13, N14, N23, N24)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138520835","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
To quantify trade frictions, we examine multiproduct exporters. We build a flexible general-equilibrium model and estimate market entry costs using Brazilian firm-product-destination data under rich demand and market access cost shocks. Our estimates show that additional products farther from a firm’s core competency come at higher production costs, but there are substantive economies of scope in market access costs. Market access costs differ across destinations, falling more rapidly in scope at nearby regions and at destinations with fewer nontariff barriers. We evaluate a counterfactual scenario that harmonizes market access costs across destinations and find global welfare gains similar to eliminating all current tariffs. (JEL D22, F12, F13, F14, O14, O19)
{"title":"The Extensive Margin of Exporting Products: A Firm-Level Analysis","authors":"Costas Arkolakis, Sharat Ganapati, Marc-Andreas Muendler","doi":"10.1257/mac.20150370","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20150370","url":null,"abstract":"To quantify trade frictions, we examine multiproduct exporters. We build a flexible general-equilibrium model and estimate market entry costs using Brazilian firm-product-destination data under rich demand and market access cost shocks. Our estimates show that additional products farther from a firm’s core competency come at higher production costs, but there are substantive economies of scope in market access costs. Market access costs differ across destinations, falling more rapidly in scope at nearby regions and at destinations with fewer nontariff barriers. We evaluate a counterfactual scenario that harmonizes market access costs across destinations and find global welfare gains similar to eliminating all current tariffs. (JEL D22, F12, F13, F14, O14, O19)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"48 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138520868","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Uncertainty about the future rises in recessions. But is uncertainty a source of business cycles or an endogenous response to them, and does the type of uncertainty matter? We propose a novel SVAR identification strategy to address these questions via inequality constraints on the structural shocks. We find that sharply higher macroeconomic uncertainty in recessions is often an endogenous response to output shocks, while uncertainty about financial markets is a likely source of output fluctuations. (JEL D81, E23, E32, E44, G14)
{"title":"Uncertainty and Business Cycles: Exogenous Impulse or Endogenous Response?","authors":"Sydney C. Ludvigson, Sai Ma, Serena Ng","doi":"10.1257/mac.20190171","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20190171","url":null,"abstract":"Uncertainty about the future rises in recessions. But is uncertainty a source of business cycles or an endogenous response to them, and does the type of uncertainty matter? We propose a novel SVAR identification strategy to address these questions via inequality constraints on the structural shocks. We find that sharply higher macroeconomic uncertainty in recessions is often an endogenous response to output shocks, while uncertainty about financial markets is a likely source of output fluctuations. (JEL D81, E23, E32, E44, G14)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138520831","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We use sizable lottery prizes in Norwegian administrative panel data to explore how transitory income shocks are spent and saved over time and how households’ marginal propensities to consume (MPCs) vary with household characteristics and shock size. We find that spending peaks in the year of winning and gradually reverts to normal within five years. Controlling for all items on households’ balance sheets and characteristics such as education and income, it is the amount won, age, and liquid assets that vary systematically with MPCs. Low-liquidity winners of the smallest prizes (around US$1,500) are estimated to spend all within the year of winning. The corresponding estimate for high-liquidity winners of large prizes (US$8, 300–150,000) is slightly below one-half. While conventional models will struggle to account for such high MPC levels, we show that a two-asset life cycle model with a realistic earnings profile and a luxury bequest motive can account for both the time profile of consumption responses and their systematic covariation with observables. (JEL D12, D15, E21, G51, H24)
{"title":"MPC Heterogeneity and Household Balance Sheets","authors":"Andreas Fagereng, Martin B. Holm, Gisle J. Natvik","doi":"10.1257/mac.20190211","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20190211","url":null,"abstract":"We use sizable lottery prizes in Norwegian administrative panel data to explore how transitory income shocks are spent and saved over time and how households’ marginal propensities to consume (MPCs) vary with household characteristics and shock size. We find that spending peaks in the year of winning and gradually reverts to normal within five years. Controlling for all items on households’ balance sheets and characteristics such as education and income, it is the amount won, age, and liquid assets that vary systematically with MPCs. Low-liquidity winners of the smallest prizes (around US$1,500) are estimated to spend all within the year of winning. The corresponding estimate for high-liquidity winners of large prizes (US$8, 300–150,000) is slightly below one-half. While conventional models will struggle to account for such high MPC levels, we show that a two-asset life cycle model with a realistic earnings profile and a luxury bequest motive can account for both the time profile of consumption responses and their systematic covariation with observables. (JEL D12, D15, E21, G51, H24)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"37 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138520843","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Trading frictions in financial markets affect more long-term than short-term bonds, generating an upward-sloping yield curve. Long-term financing is more expensive in economies with higher trading frictions so firms choose to borrow and invest in shorter horizons and lower productivity projects. The theory guides a new identification of the slope of liquidity spread in the data. We measure and calibrate the model for the United States, and counterfactual exercises suggest that variations in trading frictions can have significant effects on maturity choices and investment. A policy intervention improves liquidity, reduces long-term financial costs, and promotes investment in longer-term projects. (JEL E43, E44, E52, G12, G21, G32, O16)
{"title":"Long-Term Finance and Investment with Frictional Asset Markets","authors":"Julian Kozlowski","doi":"10.1257/mac.20190353","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20190353","url":null,"abstract":"Trading frictions in financial markets affect more long-term than short-term bonds, generating an upward-sloping yield curve. Long-term financing is more expensive in economies with higher trading frictions so firms choose to borrow and invest in shorter horizons and lower productivity projects. The theory guides a new identification of the slope of liquidity spread in the data. We measure and calibrate the model for the United States, and counterfactual exercises suggest that variations in trading frictions can have significant effects on maturity choices and investment. A policy intervention improves liquidity, reduces long-term financial costs, and promotes investment in longer-term projects. (JEL E43, E44, E52, G12, G21, G32, O16)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"149 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138520838","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
I study the optimal inflation target in a quantitative menu cost model with a zero lower bound on interest rates. I find that the optimal inflation target is 3.5 percent, which is higher than in models commonly used for monetary policy analysis. Key to this result is that inflation has a small effect on resource misallocation when the model features firm-level shocks, which are necessary to match the empirical distribution of price changes. A higher inflation target decreases price flexibility at the zero lower bound, and through this mechanism, it reduces the severity of recessions when the monetary authority is constrained. (JEL E12, E31, E32, E42, E52)
{"title":"Optimal Inflation Target in an Economy with Menu Costs and a Zero Lower Bound","authors":"Andrés Blanco","doi":"10.1257/MAC.20180198","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/MAC.20180198","url":null,"abstract":"I study the optimal inflation target in a quantitative menu cost model with a zero lower bound on interest rates. I find that the optimal inflation target is 3.5 percent, which is higher than in models commonly used for monetary policy analysis. Key to this result is that inflation has a small effect on resource misallocation when the model features firm-level shocks, which are necessary to match the empirical distribution of price changes. A higher inflation target decreases price flexibility at the zero lower bound, and through this mechanism, it reduces the severity of recessions when the monetary authority is constrained. (JEL E12, E31, E32, E42, E52)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"58 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81725210","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper computes optimal top marginal tax rates in Bewley-Huggett-Aiyagari–type economies that include entrepreneurs. Consistent with the data, entrepreneurs are overrepresented at the top of the income distribution and are thus disproportionately affected by an increase in the top marginal income tax rate. The top marginal tax rate that maximizes welfare is 60 percent. While average welfare gains are positive and similar across occupations along the transition, they are larger for entrepreneurs than for workers in the long run, and this occupational gap in welfare gains after the tax increase widens with increasing income. (JEL D11, D21, D31, H21, H24, L26)
{"title":"Higher Taxes at the Top: The Role of Entrepreneurs","authors":"Bettina Brüggemann","doi":"10.1257/mac.20170441","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20170441","url":null,"abstract":"This paper computes optimal top marginal tax rates in Bewley-Huggett-Aiyagari–type economies that include entrepreneurs. Consistent with the data, entrepreneurs are overrepresented at the top of the income distribution and are thus disproportionately affected by an increase in the top marginal income tax rate. The top marginal tax rate that maximizes welfare is 60 percent. While average welfare gains are positive and similar across occupations along the transition, they are larger for entrepreneurs than for workers in the long run, and this occupational gap in welfare gains after the tax increase widens with increasing income. (JEL D11, D21, D31, H21, H24, L26)","PeriodicalId":47991,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics","volume":"11 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138520826","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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