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Firm connection and equity return predictability – Graph-based machine learning methods 公司联系和股票回报可预测性-基于图的机器学习方法
IF 9.4 3区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2024-06-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.bar.2024.101436
Mian Wu , Wenli Huang , Xiaoquan Liu , Qingxin Meng
We develop a unified measure of firm linkage from popular linkage indicators in the literature via graph-based machine learning methods and investigate its asset pricing implication. Using all A-shares listed in the Chinese stock market from 2003 to 2022, we reveal a widespread momentum spillover in the cross section of stock returns based on our linkage measure. In particular, a long-short trading strategy for portfolios sorted by our measure generates significant risk-adjusted returns of 0.83% on a monthly basis. We show that our measure contains incremental information on firm fundamental connections relative to well-documented alternative measures, and its predictive ability can be rationalized by the investor inattention hypothesis. Our study contributes to the literature which explores economic linkages that generate lead-lag predictability and sheds new light on the interconnected nature of companies in an economy via advanced machine learning techniques.
我们通过基于图的机器学习方法,从文献中流行的联系指标中开发了一种统一的企业联系度量,并研究了其资产定价含义。利用2003年至2022年在中国股市上市的所有a股,基于我们的关联度量,我们发现在股票收益横截面上存在广泛的动量溢出。特别地,根据我们的衡量方法排序的投资组合的多空交易策略产生了显著的风险调整后的月回报率为0.83%。我们表明,相对于文献完备的替代措施,我们的措施包含了关于牢固的基本联系的增量信息,其预测能力可以通过投资者不注意假设来合理化。我们的研究为探索产生超前-滞后可预测性的经济联系的文献做出了贡献,并通过先进的机器学习技术为经济中公司的相互联系性质提供了新的视角。
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引用次数: 0
On the dynamics of treasury bond yields: From term structure modelling to economic scenario generation 国库券收益率动态:从期限结构建模到经济情景生成
IF 9.4 3区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2024-12-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.bar.2024.101542
Yi Hong, Maochun Xu, Conghua Wen
This study proposes an algorithmic framework that integrates the dynamic modelling of the term structure of treasury bond yields with the generation of market-consistent economic scenarios. The unscented Kalman filter (UKF) that works as a non-linear learning instrument for historical bond yields under the multi-factor models can facilitate the in-sample yield curve modelling, underpinned by statistical inferences, and further enhance the performance of the out-of-sample bond pricing and yield predictability. Moreover, market views that gauge the holistic assessments of macroeconomic prospects are incorporated into our framework. As such, the market-consistent economic scenarios are driven primarily by the dynamics of the term structure of bond yields and aggregate market sentiments among investors, offering a new instrument for interest rate risk management.
本研究提出了一个算法框架,该框架将国债收益率期限结构的动态建模与市场一致的经济情景的生成相结合。unscented卡尔曼滤波器(UKF)作为多因素模型下历史债券收益率的非线性学习工具,可以促进样本内收益率曲线建模,以统计推断为基础,进一步提高样本外债券定价和收益率可预测性的性能。此外,衡量宏观经济前景整体评估的市场观点被纳入我们的框架。因此,市场一致的经济情景主要由债券收益率期限结构的动态和投资者的总体市场情绪驱动,为利率风险管理提供了一种新的工具。
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引用次数: 0
Idiosyncratic volatility and return: A finite mixture approach 特殊波动率和收益:有限混合方法
IF 9.4 3区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2023-09-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.bar.2023.101261
Zhuo (June) Cheng , Jing Fang , Yinglei Zhang
Using finite mixture normal regressions, we find that the relation between idiosyncratic volatility (IVOL) and realized return is negative for one latent group and positive for the other latent group. The intercept is larger for the group with a positive relation than for the group with a negative relation; the negative relation concentrates in firms with large negative realized return in the bottom two quintiles and the positive relation concentrates in firms with large positive realized return in the top two quintiles; the likelihood of having a negative relation is positively related to price-to-value ratio estimates. Realized return has a prominent mispricing-correction component that is negative (positive) for overvalued (undervalued) firms and decreases (increases) with the degree of overvaluation (undervaluation) corrected. Overall, our findings are consistent with the positive relation between IVOL and mispricing. Our findings suggest that an overall negative relation between IVOL and realized return is driven by the negative relation between IVOL and the mispricing-correction component from overvalued firms. Rationally determined expected return cannot be negative. Evidently, an overall negative relation between IVOL and realized return does not contradict the prediction of rational asset pricing theories.
利用有限混合正态回归,我们发现特质波动率(IVOL)与实现收益之间的关系对一个潜在组为负,对另一个潜在组为正。正相关组的截距大于负相关组的截距;负相关集中在负实现收益较大的企业中,而正相关集中在正实现收益较大的企业中;负相关的可能性与价格价值比估计呈正相关。已实现收益具有显著的错定价修正成分,对于估值过高(估值过低)的公司为负(正),并随着估值过高(估值过低)的修正程度而减少(增加)。总体而言,我们的研究结果与IVOL与错误定价之间的正相关关系一致。我们的研究结果表明,IVOL与实现收益之间的整体负相关关系是由IVOL与来自高估公司的错误定价修正成分之间的负相关关系驱动的。理性决定的预期收益不可能是负的。显然,IVOL与已实现收益之间的整体负相关关系与理性资产定价理论的预测并不矛盾。
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引用次数: 0
Management accounting and artificial intelligence: A comprehensive literature review and recommendations for future research 管理会计与人工智能:综合文献综述及对未来研究的建议
IF 9.4 3区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-01-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.bar.2025.101551
Khalid Abbas
Digitalization and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies have the potential to disrupt and transform the management accounting domain and the role of accountants. The study systematically reviews 91 articles, synthesizing scholarly work on digitalization, AI, machine learning (ML), deep learning (DL), explainable AI, generative AI, and large language models (LLMs) in management accounting. In this context, the value of the paper is multi-fold. First, we argue that these technologies transform accounting information and organizational structures, affecting the accounting function's relationship with other organizational functions. Second, they present new challenges for management accountants, including data privacy, confidentiality, security and ethical concerns. Third, digital technologies automate basic accounting tasks and decision-making processes, potentially reshaping management accountants' roles and skills in terms of job elimination, upskilling, deskilling and reskilling. Fourth, these technologies create new opportunities for multidisciplinary collaboration and redefine professional boundaries. This paper contributes by discussing the impact of digitalization and the latest AI technologies on management accounting, illustrating how they can create business value, and highlighting associated challenges and risks for the profession. It proposes research agendas and potential research questions for future studies, providing insight into the potential impacts and implications for the accounting profession and the role of accountants.
数字化和人工智能(AI)技术有可能颠覆和改变管理会计领域和会计师的角色。该研究系统地回顾了91篇文章,综合了管理会计中数字化、人工智能、机器学习(ML)、深度学习(DL)、可解释人工智能、生成人工智能和大型语言模型(llm)方面的学术工作。在这种情况下,论文的价值是多方面的。首先,我们认为这些技术改变了会计信息和组织结构,影响了会计职能与其他组织职能的关系。其次,它们给管理会计师带来了新的挑战,包括数据隐私、保密、安全和道德问题。第三,数字技术将基本的会计任务和决策过程自动化,可能会在工作消除、技能提升、技能转移和再培训方面重塑管理会计师的角色和技能。第四,这些技术为多学科合作创造了新的机会,并重新定义了专业界限。本文讨论了数字化和最新的人工智能技术对管理会计的影响,说明了它们如何创造商业价值,并强调了该行业面临的相关挑战和风险。它为未来的研究提出了研究议程和潜在的研究问题,提供了对会计专业和会计师角色的潜在影响和影响的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Labor litigation and corporate cash holdings: Insights from the textual analysis of judicial documents 劳动诉讼与公司现金持有:司法文件文本分析的启示
IF 9.4 3区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2024-12-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.bar.2024.101541
Xu Feng , Mingya Hu , Cong Luo , Jiaquan Yao , Kunpeng Zhang
Labor litigation involves disputes between a firm and its employees over the latter's rights and obligations, and it may increase the uncertainty of firms' business operations and thus affect their financial decisions. Using textual analysis of judicial documents on labor and personnel disputes obtained from a specialized dataset, we find that labor litigation prompts firms to increase their cash holdings. Further analysis indicates that this effect mainly occurs in firms with higher labor adjustment costs, in regions where labor regulations and labor protection are strongly enforced, and in firms with high corporate social responsibility and high financial constraints. Finally, we find that increasing corporate cash holdings after labor litigation improves both firm performance and the market value of cash.
劳动诉讼是企业与员工之间关于员工权利义务的纠纷,它可能增加企业经营的不确定性,从而影响企业的财务决策。通过对专业数据集中有关劳资纠纷的司法文书进行文本分析,我们发现劳资诉讼促使企业增加现金持有量。进一步分析表明,这种效应主要发生在劳动力调整成本较高的企业、劳动法规和劳动保护执行力度较大的地区以及企业社会责任高、财务约束程度高的企业。最后,我们发现增加企业在劳动诉讼后的现金持有量可以提高企业绩效和现金的市场价值。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring dimensions of governance for different types of blockchain systems 探索不同类型区块链系统的治理维度
IF 9.4 3区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-02-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.bar.2025.101588
Rina Dhillon, Prabhu Sivabalan
The rapid evolution of digital technologies has significantly reshaped governance. While much existing literature focuses on public blockchain governance, fewer investigate governance mechanisms of private and consortium blockchains, increasingly prevalent in society. We explore how blockchain systems enact governance using Beck et al.’s (2018) framework examining decision rights, accountability, and incentives. Interviews with eighteen blockchain experts reveal that public blockchains offer greater decision rights, less accountability and emphasise intrinsic incentives. In contrast, private and consortium blockchains adopt hierarchical governance where central entities regulate access, decision-making and behavioural norms. These systems prioritise extrinsic incentives and accountability than public blockchains. Our findings challenge the view of blockchain as purely decentralised, instead offering evidence of hybridised structures in practice. We also extend Beck et al.’s framework by studying three blockchain types and propose a systems and structure-based rationale for control in blockchains, as opposed to trust-based mechanisms (Pflueger et al. (2022)). Finally, we offer a variation on how responsibility and accountability depart, beyond extant MA studies (Burkert et al., 2011; Giraud et al., 2008) - suggesting that openness does not necessarily equate to enhanced accountability. These insights are crucial for understanding blockchain governance and have important implications for digital systems integration in organisations.
数字技术的快速发展极大地重塑了治理。虽然许多现有文献都侧重于公共区块链治理,但很少有文献研究在社会中日益普遍的私人和财团区块链的治理机制。我们使用Beck等人(2018)的框架来研究决策权、问责制和激励,探讨区块链系统如何制定治理。对18位bb0专家的采访显示,公共区块链提供了更大的决策权,更少的问责制,并强调内在激励。相比之下,私人和财团区块链采用分层治理,由中央实体监管访问、决策和行为规范。这些系统优先考虑外部激励和问责制,而不是公共区块链。我们的研究结果挑战了区块链是纯粹分散的观点,而是提供了实践中混合结构的证据。我们还通过研究三种区块链类型扩展了Beck等人的框架,并提出了一种基于系统和结构的区块链控制原理,而不是基于信任的机制(Pflueger等人(2022))。最后,我们提供了一种关于责任和问责制如何分离的变化,超越了现有的硕士研究(Burkert et al., 2011;Giraud et al., 2008)——这表明开放并不一定等同于加强问责。这些见解对于理解区块链治理至关重要,并对组织中的数字系统集成具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
Uncovering interfirm links through textual topic similarity: A comomentum analysis in financial markets 通过文本主题相似性发现公司间联系:金融市场中的常量分析
IF 9.4 3区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2024-07-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.bar.2024.101446
Zhiyu Zhang , Zheng Qiao , Yao Ge , Zhe Shen
Using an unsupervised topic modelling methodology, we construct a cross-firm similarity measure based on the various topics extracted from Management Discussion and Analysis texts. Our findings indicate that the returns of firms with similar textual topics predict the focal firms’ future stock returns. A long-short portfolio constructed on this basis yields an annualised alpha of 17.03%. Further analyses show that the return predictability is stronger for stocks subject to limited investor attention and limits to arbitrage. Additionally, our textual linkage measure can also predict future earnings surprises. Overall, mispricing due to sluggish information incorporation acts as a potential explanation for return predictability.
我们采用无监督主题建模方法,根据从《管理层讨论与分析》文本中提取的各种主题,构建了一种跨公司相似性度量方法。我们的研究结果表明,文本主题相似的公司的回报率可以预测重点公司未来的股票回报率。在此基础上构建的多空投资组合产生了 17.03% 的年化阿尔法。进一步的分析表明,对于投资者关注度有限和套利受限的股票,收益预测性更强。此外,我们的文本关联测量也能预测未来的盈利意外。总体而言,信息吸收迟缓导致的错误定价是收益可预测性的一个潜在解释。
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引用次数: 0
Harnessing ChatGPT for predictive financial factor generation: A new frontier in financial analysis and forecasting 利用 ChatGPT 生成预测性金融因子:金融分析和预测的新领域
IF 9.4 3区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2024-10-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.bar.2024.101507
Yuhan Cheng, Yuming Zeng, Jie Zou
The search for predictive financial factors in stock pricing of companies has long been a key focus in accounting and finance, but traditional methods often require complex, subjective inputs. This paper introduces a method using ChatGPT-4 to generate financial factors based on the structure of financial statements and key variables, eliminating the need for numerical data. Leveraging GPT’s natural language processing capabilities and extensive knowledge base, our approach efficiently generates factors that are highly predictive of future returns and exhibit robustness over time, unaffected by variations in different conversational windows. Regression analysis demonstrates that these factors cannot be linearly explained by traditional financial factors. This paper highlights AI’s potential in revolutionizing financial analysis and decision-making.
长期以来,寻找公司股票定价中的预测性财务因子一直是会计和金融领域的重点,但传统方法往往需要复杂的主观输入。本文介绍了一种利用 ChatGPT-4 生成基于财务报表结构和关键变量的财务因子的方法,无需数字数据。利用 GPT 的自然语言处理能力和广泛的知识库,我们的方法可以高效地生成对未来回报具有高度预测性的因子,并且随着时间的推移表现出稳健性,不受不同对话窗口变化的影响。回归分析表明,这些因子无法用传统的金融因子进行线性解释。本文凸显了人工智能在革新金融分析和决策方面的潜力。
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引用次数: 0
Digitalization and management accountants’ role conflict and ambiguity: A double-edged sword for the profession 数字化与管理会计师的角色冲突和模糊性:行业的双刃剑
IF 9.4 3区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2024-08-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.bar.2024.101460
Alexander C.A. van Slooten, Paula M.G. Dirks, Sebastian Firk
This study investigates the relationship between the anticipated digitalization of the finance and control function and management accountants' (MAs') role conflict and ambiguity. Drawing on role theory, we argue that digitalization is associated with increases in MAs' role conflict and ambiguity because digitalization leads to adaptations in the established role templates of MAs and also introduces new templates for the digital age. We further argue that digitalization is associated with a stronger (weaker) increase in role conflict and ambiguity the more MAs have a watchdog (business partner) orientation. The reason is that the role templates for the digital age are less coherent and clear for watchdog-oriented MAs than for their business partner counterparts. We test our predictions using survey data from 242 MAs in Dutch for-profit firms. While we do not find that digitalization is associated with MAs’ role conflict and ambiguity per se, it is associated with more (less) role ambiguity and conflict for MAs with a relatively stronger watchdog (business partner) orientation. Digitalization may thus act as a double-edged sword for the management accounting profession. MAs focusing on the watchdog role may struggle in the digital age, while their business partner counterparts are set to benefit from digitalization.
本研究探讨了财务与控制职能的预期数字化与管理会计师(MAs)的角色冲突和模糊性之间的关系。根据角色理论,我们认为数字化与管理会计师角色冲突和模糊性的增加有关,因为数字化会导致管理会计师既有角色模板的调整,也会为数字化时代引入新的模板。我们进一步认为,数字化越是倾向于监督者(业务伙伴)的管理者,其角色冲突和模糊性的增加就越强(越弱)。原因在于,与业务合作伙伴相比,以监督者为导向的管理者在数字化时代的角色模板不够连贯和清晰。我们使用荷兰营利性企业 242 名管理咨询师的调查数据来验证我们的预测。虽然我们没有发现数字化与管理咨询师的角色冲突和模糊性本身有关,但对于看门狗(业务伙伴)导向相对较强的管理咨询师来说,数字化与更多的(较少的)角色模糊性和冲突有关。因此,数字化对管理会计行业来说可能是一把双刃剑。侧重于监督者角色的管理会计师可能会在数字化时代陷入困境,而他们的业务伙伴同行则会从数字化中受益。
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引用次数: 0
What happens at the interface of digitalisation and accounting? 在数字化和会计的界面上会发生什么?
IF 9.4 3区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.bar.2025.101742
Alnoor Bhimani , Lino Cinquini , Teemu Malmi
Organisations adopting digital technologies are seeing alterations in the structure and nature of data they track and process. Within this landscape of change, accounting systems tend to focus on the collection and aggregation of financial transaction data and the provision of quantitative and non-financial information to support decision-making processes. Evidence is, however, emerging that accounting controls and financial reporting are being reshaped in digitalising environments. We consider a number of accounting issues tied to the intersection of digitalisation and organisational processes highlighting the control implications of these changes. We identify related research possibilities and discuss the value of methodological pluralism in studying accounting in digitalising contexts.
采用数字技术的组织正在看到他们跟踪和处理的数据的结构和性质的变化。在这种变化的情况下,会计系统往往侧重于收集和汇总金融交易数据,并提供定量和非财务信息,以支持决策过程。然而,越来越多的证据表明,会计控制和财务报告正在数字化环境中重塑。我们考虑了与数字化和组织流程交叉相关的一些会计问题,强调了这些变化对控制的影响。我们确定了相关的研究可能性,并讨论了方法多元化在研究数字化背景下的会计方面的价值。
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引用次数: 0
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British Accounting Review
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