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Short selling and the probability of informed trading: Insights from interlocking directorate networks 卖空和知情交易的可能性:来自连锁董事网络的见解
IF 5.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103091
Yanan Li , Yunhui Shi , Yezhou Sha
We employ a staggered DID model to estimate the effect of the short selling policy on the probability of informed trading. Using data and stepwise ease of short selling ban from China's A-share listed stocks during 2006–2022, we find that short selling policy reduces the probability of informed trading. To explore underlying mechanisms, we adopt a social network perspective, focusing on structural holes and centrality in interlocking directorate networks. The results indicate interlocking directorate networks positively mediate the relationship between short selling and the probability of informed trading. We further find the suppressive impact of short selling on the probability of informed trading is stronger under higher separation of ownership and control, ownership concentration, institutional ownership, and market attention. We recommend regulators consider interlocking directorate network characteristics and corporate features when developing regulatory strategies.
我们采用交错DID模型来估计卖空政策对知情交易概率的影响。利用2006-2022年中国a股上市股票逐步放宽卖空禁令的数据,我们发现卖空政策降低了知情交易的概率。为了探索潜在的机制,我们采用了社会网络的视角,重点关注连锁董事网络的结构漏洞和中心性。结果表明,连锁董事网络正向中介卖空与知情交易概率之间的关系。我们进一步发现,在所有权与控制权分离程度较高、所有权集中度较高、机构所有权较高和市场关注度较高的情况下,卖空对知情交易概率的抑制作用更强。我们建议监管机构在制定监管策略时考虑联锁的董事会网络特征和公司特征。
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引用次数: 0
PBFJ editorial responsible science, research balance, and the problem of bandwagons pbj编辑负责任的科学,研究平衡,以及从众问题
IF 5.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103096
Robert W. Faff
This Editorial Note takes a firm position on the problem of research bandwagons in finance scholarship. In several topical domains—including green finance, climate and carbon-related finance, sustainability, ESG, CSR, and DEI—the field has reached peak saturation, with large volumes of increasingly incremental studies generating diminishing marginal contribution. The Editorial argues that such outcomes is a systemic problem rather than individual failures and require clear journal-level leadership. Grounded in Responsible Science, this editorial note clarifies how the Pacific-Basin Finance Journal evaluates contribution beyond topical relevance and signals that submissions in crowded bandwagon areas face a very high risk of desk rejection absent exceptional differentiation and meaningful impact. The Editorial further positions journal-level pre-registration as a practical antidote to bandwagon incentives, helping restore balance, independence, and long-term credibility in finance research.
这篇社论对金融奖学金的研究潮流问题采取了坚定的立场。在一些热门领域,包括绿色金融、气候和碳相关金融、可持续发展、ESG、CSR和dei,该领域已经达到了饱和的顶峰,大量不断增加的研究产生了边际贡献递减。社论认为,这样的结果是一个系统性问题,而不是个人的失败,需要明确的期刊级领导。这篇社论以负责任的科学为基础,阐明了《太平洋盆地金融杂志》如何评估专题相关性之外的贡献,并表明,在缺乏特殊差异化和有意义影响的情况下,在拥挤的潮流领域提交的文章面临极高的被拒风险。该社论进一步将期刊级别的预注册定位为从众激励的实用解毒剂,有助于恢复金融研究的平衡、独立性和长期可信度。
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引用次数: 0
Judicial specialization and SME capital efficiency: The role of financial courts reform 司法专业化与中小企业资本效率:金融法院改革的作用
IF 5.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103073
Yapeng Zhao , Yuyan Tan , Xuelei Hou
This study examines the impact of the establishment of financial courts in China on the capital return rate of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), focusing on the underlying mechanisms driving this effect. The findings reveal that financial courts significantly enhance SMEs' capital return rate by approximately 21.2%, primarily through two channels: first, by optimizing credit resource allocation, reducing the crowding-out effect of Local Government Financing Vehicles (LGFVs) on SMEs' credit, and second, by improving the business environment, reducing transaction costs, and increasing market confidence through more efficient financial dispute resolution. The heterogeneity analysis demonstrates that non-state-owned, low-collateral, and capital-intensive SMEs experience more substantial improvements in capital returns following the introduction of financial courts. This paper provides empirical evidence supporting China's financial judicial reform and offers critical insights for the optimization of global financial systems, highlighting the vital role of judicial specialization in enhancing the financing environment and capital efficiency for SMEs.
本研究考察了中国金融法院的设立对中小企业资本回报率的影响,重点探讨了推动这种影响的潜在机制。研究发现,金融法院通过优化信贷资源配置,降低地方政府融资平台对中小企业信贷的挤出效应,以及通过提高金融纠纷解决效率,改善营商环境,降低交易成本,增强市场信心,显著提高了中小企业的资本回报率,提升率约为21.2%。异质性分析表明,引入金融法院后,非国有、低抵押和资本密集型的中小企业在资本回报方面有更大的改善。本文提供了支持中国金融司法改革的经验证据,并为优化全球金融体系提供了重要见解,突出了司法专业化在改善中小企业融资环境和资本效率方面的重要作用。
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引用次数: 0
Vertical cross-shareholding and dynamic capital structure adjustment 纵向交叉持股和动态资本结构调整
IF 5.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103117
Cheng Liu , Siyuan Dong , Xinyi Gao
As a new governance mechanism, vertical cross-shareholding (VCS) can promote information sharing and coordination between upstream and downstream firms in the supply chain. In this study, we investigate the impact of VCS on the dynamic adjustment of corporate capital structure. Based on the data of Chinese A-share listed firms from 2010 to 2022, we find that VCS can accelerate the adjustment of corporate capital structure, especially for under-leveraged firms, while the effect of VCS on the adjustment of capital structure is relatively weak for over-leveraged firms. The mechanism analysis shows that VCS can accelerate the adjustment of corporate capital structure through the following three channels: supply chain information sharing, optimization of corporate governance structure and synergic utilization of financial resources. Moreover, the effect of VCS is stronger in state-owned enterprises, in regions with stronger regulatory environment and for firms with higher relational embeddedness. An additional analysis shows that VCS can help reduce the deviation of target capital structure for firms with extreme leverage ratio, either too high or too low, which also shows that VCS has a corrective effect on the capital structure. This study provides evidence for the strategic significance of VCS in improving the flexibility of corporate capital structure and reducing financial risks in emerging markets.
垂直交叉持股作为一种新的治理机制,可以促进供应链上下游企业之间的信息共享和协调。本文主要研究风险投资对企业资本结构动态调整的影响。基于2010 - 2022年中国a股上市公司的数据,我们发现风险投资可以加速公司资本结构的调整,特别是对杠杆不足的公司,而风险投资对资本结构调整的影响相对较弱。机制分析表明,VCS可以通过供应链信息共享、公司治理结构优化和财务资源协同利用三个渠道加速公司资本结构的调整。此外,风险投资对国有企业、监管环境较强的地区和关系嵌入性较高的企业的影响更强。另一项分析表明,对于杠杆率过高或过低的极端企业,风险投资可以帮助减少目标资本结构的偏离,这也表明风险投资对资本结构具有矫正作用。本研究为风险投资在提高新兴市场企业资本结构灵活性和降低金融风险方面的战略意义提供了证据。
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引用次数: 0
Forecast disagreement about firm-level profitability and uncertainty 对公司盈利能力和不确定性的预测分歧
IF 5.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103092
Seohyun Lee
This paper proposes a measure for firm-level uncertainty using forecast disagreement among financial analysts in South Korea for the period between 2003Q1 and 2019Q4. I find that, at the aggregate level, the disagreement measure of uncertainty is positively correlated with the Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) and negatively correlated with GDP growth, both with lags. To investigate the real option channel of uncertainty, the impact of firm-level uncertainty on investment is estimated, controlling for firm-level first-moment shocks and financial conditions. The results suggest that the firm-level disagreement measure of uncertainty adversely affects investment and such effects are more severe for firms with high levels of irreversible investments. There is empirical evidence suggesting that the impacts on other real activities are consistent with the real option theory — sales, employment, and investment in R&D are discouraged by uncertainty shocks. Financial decisions of firms are affected by firm-level uncertainty shocks — firms reduce debt and increase payout when faced with higher uncertainty.
本文利用韩国金融分析师对2003年第一季度至2019年第四季度的预测分歧,提出了一种衡量企业层面不确定性的方法。我发现,在总体水平上,不确定性的分歧度量与经济政策不确定性(EPU)正相关,与GDP增长负相关,两者都有滞后。为了研究不确定性的实物期权渠道,在控制企业一级第一时刻冲击和财务状况的情况下,估计了企业一级不确定性对投资的影响。结果表明,企业层面的不确定性差异度量对投资产生不利影响,且这种影响对不可逆投资水平高的企业更为严重。有经验证据表明,不确定性冲击对其他实际活动的影响与实物期权理论一致——销售、就业和研发投资受到不确定性冲击的抑制。企业的财务决策受到企业层面的不确定性冲击的影响——企业在面临更高的不确定性时减少债务并增加支出。
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引用次数: 0
ESG ratings and stock price crash risk: Role of herding behavior and network media attention ESG评级与股价崩盘风险:羊群行为和网络媒体关注的作用
IF 5.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103114
Xinle Tong , Xinyue Lyu , Jingyu Jin , Huabin Bian
This paper examines whether and how ESG ratings influence stock price crash risk using panel data of China's A-share listed companies from 2010 to 2021. The results show that higher ESG ratings are significantly associated with lower stock price crash risk. Mechanism analysis suggests that ESG ratings reduce crash risk by curbing institutional investor herding, particularly sell-side herding. Furthermore, network media attention strengthens the mitigating effect of ESG ratings, while print media attention plays a comparatively weaker role. Heterogeneity analyses reveal that the inhibitory effect of ESG ratings on crash risk is more pronounced among non-SOE firms, small firms, non-overconfident managers, and companies in the manufacturing sector. These findings remain robust after addressing potential endogeneity and conducting a series of robustness checks.
本文采用2010 - 2021年中国a股上市公司面板数据,考察ESG评级是否影响股价崩盘风险,以及如何影响股价崩盘风险。结果显示,较高的ESG评级与较低的股价崩盘风险显著相关。机制分析表明,ESG评级通过抑制机构投资者的羊群行为,尤其是卖方的羊群行为,降低了崩盘风险。此外,网络媒体的关注增强了ESG评级的缓解作用,而纸媒的关注作用相对较弱。异质性分析表明,ESG评级对崩溃风险的抑制作用在非国有企业、小企业、非过度自信的管理者和制造业企业中更为明显。在解决了潜在的内生性并进行了一系列稳健性检查后,这些发现仍然是稳健的。
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引用次数: 0
Can artificial intelligence enhance corporate resilience? Empirical evidence from China's A-share listed firms 人工智能能增强企业的应变能力吗?来自中国a股上市公司的经验证据
IF 5.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103112
Xiaojing Chen , Wen Liu , Geng Chen , Xujian Wang , Yun Zhang
As the core technology driving a new round of scientific and industrial transformation, artificial intelligence (AI) plays a pivotal role in China's strategy for advancing high-quality development, particularly in how it integrates with micro-level enterprises. Using data from Chinese A-share listed firms from 2010 to 2023, this paper examines the impact of AI on corporate resilience at the firm level. Corporate resilience is measured across four dimensions: innovation capacity, resistance capacity, recovery capacity, and financing stability. We further explore the mechanisms through which AI affects resilience. The findings reveal that AI significantly enhances corporate resilience, this conclusion remains robust after a series of alternative measurements, high-dimensional fixed-effects models, and endogeneity checks. Mechanism analysis shows that improving resource allocation efficiency, strengthening risk management, and fostering continuous innovation are three primary channels through which AI contributes to resilience. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the positive effect of AI is more pronounced among labor-intensive firms, non-internationalized firms, firms facing higher environmental uncertainty, and industries characterized by intense competition as well as greater financing constraints. Therefore, guiding the strategic direction of AI and promoting its localized application can play a crucial role in enhancing corporate resilience.
作为推动新一轮科技和产业变革的核心技术,人工智能(AI)在中国推进高质量发展战略中发挥着关键作用,特别是在与微观企业的融合方面。本文利用2010 - 2023年中国a股上市公司的数据,从企业层面考察了人工智能对企业弹性的影响。企业弹性是通过四个维度来衡量的:创新能力、抵抗能力、恢复能力和融资稳定性。我们进一步探讨了人工智能影响弹性的机制。研究结果表明,人工智能显著增强了企业的弹性,在一系列替代测量、高维固定效应模型和内生性检验后,这一结论仍然是稳健的。机制分析表明,提高资源配置效率、加强风险管理、促进持续创新是人工智能增强韧性的三个主要渠道。异质性分析表明,人工智能的积极效应在劳动密集型企业、非国际化企业、环境不确定性较高的企业和竞争激烈、融资约束较大的行业中更为明显。因此,引导人工智能的战略方向,推动人工智能的本土化应用,对于提升企业的弹性具有至关重要的作用。
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引用次数: 0
Cross-market attention for futures forecasting and ETF performance enhancement 跨市场关注期货预测和ETF业绩提升
IF 5.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103080
Min-Rui Choo , Wei-Che Tsai , Hsiu-Chuan Lee , Chung-Jen Yang
This study investigates whether U.S. investor attention can predict Taiwan's stock index futures returns and enhance exchange-traded fund (ETF) investment performance. Investor attention measures are constructed from 52-week high and low prices, and forecasting models are developed by integrating the elastic net (ENet) with factor-based dimensionality reduction techniques to improve out-of-sample predictive accuracy. The empirical results show that the U.S. investor attention variables individually exhibit significant predictive power for Taiwan's stock index futures returns. Moreover, ENet combined with factor-based dimensionality reduction models provide the most robust forecasting gains, outperforming not only the buy-and-hold and historical average benchmarks, but also models based solely on individual predictors and conventional dimensionality reduction approaches. Finally, the findings show that investors holding Taiwan-focused ETFs can enhance portfolio performance by dynamically adjusting their index futures positions in response to model-generated signals.
摘要本研究旨在探讨美国投资者的注意力是否能预测台湾股指期货的收益,并提升交易所交易基金的投资绩效。投资者关注指标由52周的高点和低点构成,并通过将弹性网络(ENet)与基于因子的降维技术相结合来开发预测模型,以提高样本外预测的准确性。实证结果显示,美国投资者关注变量对台湾股指期货收益具有显著的预测力。此外,ENet与基于因子的降维模型相结合,提供了最稳健的预测收益,不仅优于买入并持有和历史平均基准,而且优于仅基于单个预测者和传统降维方法的模型。最后,研究结果显示,持有台湾etf的投资者可因应模型产生的讯号,动态调整指数期货仓位,以提升投资组合绩效。
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引用次数: 0
CEO hometown identity and cash hoarding CEO家乡身份和现金囤积
IF 5.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103098
Chen Song
This paper examines the effects of CEO hometown identity on corporate cash hoarding. We provide robust evidence that firms led by hometown CEOs tend to hoard significantly less cash. This effect is weaker in state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and firms with fierce competition, which may be attributed to the strong government intervention over SOEs and the external pressures of competitive markets. Further analysis reveals that CEO hometown identity reduces corporate cash hoarding by weakening both precautionary- and agency-driven motives. The findings suggest that CEO hometown identity serves as an effective informal corporate governance mechanism for corporate cash management. Our results remain robust across various robustness tests, including alternative proxies for corporate cash hoarding, the instrumental variables approach, the difference-in-differences method, the propensity score matching technique, the placebo test, and the Heckman two-step selection model.
本文考察了CEO家乡认同对企业现金囤积的影响。我们提供了强有力的证据,证明由家乡ceo领导的公司倾向于囤积更少的现金。这种效应在国有企业和竞争激烈的企业中较弱,这可能与政府对国有企业的强烈干预和竞争市场的外部压力有关。进一步分析表明,CEO的家乡身份通过削弱预防性动机和代理驱动动机来减少企业现金囤积。研究结果表明,CEO家乡认同对企业现金管理具有有效的非正式公司治理机制。我们的结果在各种稳健性检验中保持稳健性,包括企业现金囤积的替代代理、工具变量法、差中差法、倾向得分匹配技术、安慰剂检验和Heckman两步选择模型。
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引用次数: 0
Order spoofing, price impact, and market quality 订单欺骗、价格影响和市场质量
IF 5.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103077
Jianqiang Chen , Pei-Fang Hsieh , J. Jimmy Yang
This study examines potential spoofing tactics using complete intraday order and trade data from Taiwan's derivatives markets. We find that transaction prices rise (fall) after aggressive limit buy (sell) order revisions, accompanied by opposite-side order placements and trades, consistent with potential spoofing. After such order revisions, prices tend to reverse, market order imbalance decreases, and market quality deteriorates. Using a trading rule that restricts limit order placement as a quasi-natural experiment, we find that such restrictions reduce the price impact of spoofing orders and improve market quality. Potential spoofing tactics significantly affect prices, especially during market openings and closings, trading intervals with larger order revisions or wider bid-ask spreads, and particularly in out-of-the-money options.
本研究利用台湾衍生品市场完整的日内订单与交易数据,检视潜在的欺骗策略。我们发现,在激进的限价买入(卖出)订单修正后,伴随着对方的订单投放和交易,交易价格上升(下降),与潜在的欺骗相一致。订单修正后,价格趋于反转,市场秩序失衡减小,市场质量恶化。利用限制限价订单的交易规则作为准自然实验,我们发现这种限制降低了欺骗订单对价格的影响,提高了市场质量。潜在的欺骗策略会显著影响价格,特别是在市场开盘和收盘时,交易间隔有较大的订单修改或更大的买卖价差,特别是在价外期权。
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引用次数: 0
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Pacific-Basin Finance Journal
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