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Illusion momentum and cross-sectional returns 错觉动量和横截面回报
IF 5.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103063
Yasuhiro Iwanaga , Takehide Hirose
This study proposes a new momentum-related signal called “illusion momentum.” We confirm the effect of illusion momentum in both the Japanese and U.S. stock markets, where stocks with high illusion momentum tend to have higher future returns than those with low illusion momentum. The effectiveness of illusion momentum may be rooted in a cognitive bias where investors mistakenly interpret cumulative sum returns as cumulative returns. Notably, the effect of illusion momentum becomes stronger in bear markets, where traditional momentum strategies tend to struggle, and does not exhibit characteristics similar to selling call options. Considering that illusion momentum is also effective within a universe of large-cap stocks, this study has several practical applications.
这项研究提出了一种新的动量相关信号,称为“错觉动量”。我们在日本和美国股市都证实了错觉动量的影响,错觉动量高的股票往往比错觉动量低的股票有更高的未来回报。错觉动量的有效性可能植根于一种认知偏差,即投资者错误地将累计总和回报解读为累计回报。值得注意的是,在熊市中,错觉动量的影响会变得更强,在熊市中,传统的动量策略往往会挣扎,并且不会表现出类似于卖出看涨期权的特征。考虑到错觉动量在大盘股中也是有效的,这项研究有几个实际应用。
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引用次数: 0
Reassessing bond pricing efficiency: The effects of deregulating mandatory bond ratings 重新评估债券定价效率:解除强制性债券评级管制的影响
IF 5.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103064
Lei Lu , Qingfu Liu , Zilu Wang , Sumei Luo
We analyze the negative impact of credit bond issuance ratings on pricing outcomes. Exploiting the exogenous shock from China’s removal of the mandatory bond rating for credit bond issuance, we employ an event study approach to trace out the consequences of lowering issuance thresholds on bond pricing. We show that firms voluntarily retaining bond ratings experienced credit spreads 10.2 percent higher than firms that abandoned ratings. Firms that dropped issuance ratings experienced significant improvements in bond rating quality, reductions in default risk, and enhanced secondary market liquidity. Our findings highlight the critical role that abandoning issuance ratings plays in improving credit bond pricing efficiency under the issuer-paid rating model.
我们分析了信用债券发行评级对定价结果的负面影响。利用中国取消信用债券发行强制性债券评级的外生冲击,我们采用事件研究方法来追踪降低发行门槛对债券定价的影响。我们表明,自愿保留债券评级的公司的信用利差比放弃评级的公司高10.2%。降低发行评级的公司在债券评级质量、违约风险降低和二级市场流动性增强方面取得了显著改善。我们的研究结果强调了在发行人付费评级模式下,放弃发行评级对提高信用债券定价效率的关键作用。
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引用次数: 0
Multi-term momentum effect and driving mechanisms based on machine learning 基于机器学习的多期动量效应及驱动机制
IF 5.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103065
Yuzhi Chen , Deyuan Zhang , Xinyue Li , Hang Su
Given that investors engage in non-synchronous trading activities, the paper integrates prior monthly returns with different lags and employs the Support Vector Regression (SVR) model to develop a Multi-term Momentum indicator (Multi-MOM). By constructing the winner-minus-loser portfolios, the paper reveals the existence of a multi-term momentum effect in the Chinese stock market. Through the spanning regression, the paper finds that the traditional momentum and other machine-learning-based momentum LS returns cannot fully explain the SVR-based momentum LS returns. To further explore the underlying drivers of this anomaly, the paper decomposes the multi-term momentum effect using a range of factors, including firm characteristics, information uncertainty, trend, lottery, and others. The findings reveal that firm characteristics, lottery, and information uncertainty are the key factors driving the multi-term momentum effect, accounting for approximately 16.4%, 11.7%, and 7% of the effect, respectively. Moreover, the paper examines the drivers of multi-term momentum under different market conditions and concludes that firm characteristics, lottery, and information uncertainty remain the primary drivers of multi-term momentum regardless of market conditions. Additionally, considering the varying momentum performance across different levels of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU), the paper investigates the drivers of multi-term momentum under different EPU conditions. The results indicate that firm characteristics, lottery, and information uncertainty consistently exhibit significant explanatory power for the multi-term momentum effect at different EPU levels.
考虑到投资者从事的是非同步交易活动,本文将不同滞后的前期月度收益进行整合,采用支持向量回归(SVR)模型构建多期动量指标(Multi-term Momentum indicator, Multi-MOM)。通过构建赢-减-亏组合,揭示了中国股市存在多期动量效应。通过跨越回归,本文发现传统动量和其他基于机器学习的动量LS收益并不能完全解释基于svr的动量LS收益。为了进一步探索这种异常的潜在驱动因素,本文使用一系列因素分解了多期动量效应,包括企业特征、信息不确定性、趋势、彩票等。研究发现,企业特征、彩票和信息不确定性是驱动多期动量效应的关键因素,分别约占影响的16.4%、11.7%和7%。此外,本文还考察了不同市场条件下多期动量的驱动因素,并得出结论:无论市场条件如何,企业特征、彩票和信息不确定性仍然是多期动量的主要驱动因素。此外,考虑到不同经济政策不确定性水平下的动量表现差异,本文研究了不同经济政策不确定性条件下的多期动量驱动因素。结果表明,企业特征、彩票和信息不确定性对不同EPU水平下的多期动量效应具有显著的解释力。
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引用次数: 0
Hedging financial turbulence risk with textual analysis 对冲金融动荡风险的实证分析
IF 5.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103062
Qingfu Liu , Yiuman Tse , Chuanjie Wang , Jiaer Yang
Financial turbulence poses substantial challenges to risk management and investment decision-making, particularly in emerging markets. This study constructs a novel Chinese Financial Turbulence Index (FTI) using a dictionary-based method augmented by generative artificial intelligence, drawing from a corpus of over 3.6 million financial news articles spanning 2012 to 2023. The FTI exhibits strong responsiveness to macroeconomic conditions and market uncertainty, and significantly predicts negative market returns. To mitigate risks associated with financial turbulence, we develop a hedging framework that integrates scaled principal component analysis (sPCA) with a portfolio-mimicking strategy. The resulting hedging portfolio, which is based on firm-level financial resilience characteristics and complemented by non-equity assets, effectively offsets turbulence-related risks. The FTI and the proposed hedging approach offer timely and practical tools for monitoring and managing financial turbulence.
金融动荡对风险管理和投资决策构成了重大挑战,尤其是在新兴市场。本研究采用基于词典的方法,结合生成式人工智能,从2012年至2023年的360多万篇财经新闻文章的语料库中提取数据,构建了一个新的中国金融动荡指数(FTI)。FTI对宏观经济条件和市场不确定性表现出强烈的反应,并显著预测负市场回报。为了降低与金融动荡相关的风险,我们开发了一个对冲框架,该框架将规模主成分分析(sPCA)与投资组合模仿策略相结合。由此产生的对冲组合基于企业层面的金融弹性特征,并辅以非股权资产,有效抵消了与动荡相关的风险。FTI和拟议的对冲方法为监测和管理金融动荡提供了及时和实用的工具。
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引用次数: 0
Rainbow deep reinforcement learning in the Chinese stock market 彩虹深度强化学习在中国股市的应用
IF 5.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103066
Jing Chen, Haoran Fu, Yushan Xue, Yifeng Zhu
This paper analyzes the impact of monthly stock recommendations by securities companies on investor sentiment; it then creates a quantitative stock selection investment strategy based on the developed sentiment indicators and Rainbow algorithm, named the Rainbow Algorithm Strategy with Integrated Technical and Sentiment Indicators (TS-RA Strategy). Results show that the stock recommendation factor exhibits good and stable stock selection ability, and the TS-RA Strategy constructed on this basis demonstrates high profitability. During the testing period, the annualized return reached 25.58%, with a maximum drawdown of 7.41%, indicating high returns and manageable risks. Furthermore, the TS-RA Strategy is superior to the investment strategy constructed using deep Q-learning methods and has performed well in different market environments.
本文分析了证券公司月度股票推荐对投资者情绪的影响;然后,根据开发的情绪指标和彩虹算法创建了定量选股投资策略,称为技术和情绪指标综合彩虹算法策略(TS-RA策略)。结果表明,股票推荐因子具有良好稳定的选股能力,在此基础上构建的TS-RA策略具有较高的盈利能力。在测试期内,年化收益率达到25.58%,最大降幅为7.41%,回报率高,风险可控。此外,TS-RA策略优于使用深度q -学习方法构建的投资策略,并在不同的市场环境中表现良好。
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引用次数: 0
Board independence, promoter influence, and share pledging behavior 董事会独立性、发起人影响力和股份承诺行为
IF 5.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103059
Praveena Musunuru, Mohammad Shameem Jawed, Kaveri Krishnan
This study examines the relationship between board independence and share-pledging behavior by controlling shareholders (promoters) in Indian listed firms from 2010 to 2020 using a balanced panel. Further, we examine the interplay between the independence of the board and the presence of the promoter as an executive director on the board and its impact on the share pledging by promoters. Our findings reveal that independent boards serve as a deterrent to share pledging by promoters, especially when independent directors actively participate. However, this deterrent effect diminishes when promoters hold executive positions on the board. Moreover, unlike business group firms, board independence fails to deter share pledging in concentrated standalone firms. Furthermore, we examine whether independent boards encourage promoters to provide fair reasons for share pledging following a regulation in 2019. Our analysis confirms that independent boards incentivize promoters to provide transparent and justifiable reasons for engaging in share pledging. However, promoters on board reduce this effect.
本文采用平衡面板法,考察了2010 - 2020年印度上市公司控股股东(发起人)的董事会独立性与股权质押行为之间的关系。进一步,我们考察了董事会独立性与发起人作为执行董事在董事会中的存在之间的相互作用及其对发起人股权质押的影响。我们的研究结果表明,独立董事会对发起人的股权承诺起到了威慑作用,特别是当独立董事积极参与时。然而,当发起人在董事会中担任高管职位时,这种威慑作用就会减弱。此外,与商业集团公司不同,董事会独立性未能阻止集中的独立公司的股权质押。此外,我们研究了独立董事会是否鼓励发起人在2019年的监管后提供公平的股票质押理由。我们的分析证实,独立董事会激励发起人为参与股权质押提供透明和合理的理由。然而,董事会的发起人减少了这种影响。
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引用次数: 0
Urban green technology transfer networks and green finance development: Evidence from the Yangtze River Delta, China 城市绿色技术转移网络与绿色金融发展:来自中国长三角的证据
IF 5.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-01-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103055
Feng Hu , Huijie Yang , Shaobin Wei , Haiyan Zhou , Yufeng Chen , Hao Hu
On the basis of green patent transfer data from 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region and green credit data from five major state-owned banks from 2015 to 2023, this study employs social network analysis and a geographical detector model to examine the spatiotemporal dynamics and systemic coupling between green technology diffusion and green finance development. We document the following key findings: (1) the green technology transfer network has expanded, with Hefei surpassing Shanghai as the core hub, and intensive green technology flows being concentrated in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Suzhou, Nanjing, and Hefei; (2) while green finance has grown substantially, it remains spatially concentrated around Shanghai, leading to a persistent core–periphery divide; (3) the coordination between cities' positions in the technology network and their green finance levels has declined, except in Shanghai, indicating a growing structural mismatch; and (4) factor detection results from the geographical detector indicate that green finance policies act as an independent driving force for the green technology transfer network. Furthermore, interaction detection demonstrates that green finance exerts a stronger influence when it is jointly driven by the urban financial scale and market vitality.
基于2015 - 2023年长三角41个城市绿色专利转移数据和五大国有银行绿色信贷数据,运用社会网络分析和地理探测器模型,研究绿色技术扩散与绿色金融发展的时空动态关系和系统耦合关系。研究发现:(1)绿色技术转移网络不断扩大,合肥超越上海成为核心枢纽,绿色技术密集流动集中在上海、杭州、苏州、南京和合肥;(2)绿色金融虽有较大发展,但空间上仍集中在上海周边,导致核心与边缘分化持续存在;(3)除上海外,各城市在技术网络中的位置与绿色金融水平之间的协调性有所下降,表明结构错配加剧;(4)地理检测器的因子检测结果表明,绿色金融政策对绿色技术转移网络具有独立的驱动作用。交互检测表明,在城市金融规模和市场活力的共同驱动下,绿色金融的影响力更强。
{"title":"Urban green technology transfer networks and green finance development: Evidence from the Yangtze River Delta, China","authors":"Feng Hu ,&nbsp;Huijie Yang ,&nbsp;Shaobin Wei ,&nbsp;Haiyan Zhou ,&nbsp;Yufeng Chen ,&nbsp;Hao Hu","doi":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103055","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103055","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>On the basis of green patent transfer data from 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region and green credit data from five major state-owned banks from 2015 to 2023, this study employs social network analysis and a geographical detector model to examine the spatiotemporal dynamics and systemic coupling between green technology diffusion and green finance development. We document the following key findings: (1) the green technology transfer network has expanded, with Hefei surpassing Shanghai as the core hub, and intensive green technology flows being concentrated in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Suzhou, Nanjing, and Hefei; (2) while green finance has grown substantially, it remains spatially concentrated around Shanghai, leading to a persistent core–periphery divide; (3) the coordination between cities' positions in the technology network and their green finance levels has declined, except in Shanghai, indicating a growing structural mismatch; and (4) factor detection results from the geographical detector indicate that green finance policies act as an independent driving force for the green technology transfer network. Furthermore, interaction detection demonstrates that green finance exerts a stronger influence when it is jointly driven by the urban financial scale and market vitality.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48074,"journal":{"name":"Pacific-Basin Finance Journal","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 103055"},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2026-01-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145925439","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Do managerial pay caps intensify agency conflicts? Evidence from corporate cash holdings 管理层薪酬上限是否加剧了代理冲突?来自公司现金持有量的证据
IF 5.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-01-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103057
Jia Guo , Kemin Wang , Guanglong Zhang
We leverage the 2015 managerial pay reform in Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) as a quasi-natural experiment to examine whether managerial pay caps intensify corporate agency conflicts. Our results show that affected SOEs opportunistically increase cash holdings, as managers seek to self-compensate for the pay reduction. This cash-hoarding effect is stronger for firms facing more severe agency problems and weaker external oversight. Consequently, firms that hoard more cash due to the pay cap suffer a lower marginal value of cash, decreased operational efficiency, and reduced profitability. Our findings suggest that a “one-size-fits-all” mandatory pay cap may unintentionally exacerbate agency conflicts and hinder economic efficiency.
我们以2015年中国国有企业管理层薪酬改革为准自然实验,考察管理层薪酬上限是否会加剧公司代理冲突。我们的研究结果表明,受影响的国有企业机会主义地增加现金持有量,因为管理者寻求自我补偿薪酬的减少。对于面临更严重的代理问题和更弱的外部监督的公司,这种现金囤积效应更强。因此,由于薪酬上限而囤积更多现金的公司,其现金边际价值较低,运营效率下降,盈利能力下降。我们的研究结果表明,“一刀切”的强制性薪酬上限可能会无意中加剧机构冲突,阻碍经济效率。
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引用次数: 0
Can strengthened financial regulation reduce monopsony power in superstar firms? Evidence from China's asset management reform 加强金融监管能降低超级明星公司的垄断力量吗?来自中国资产管理改革的证据
IF 5.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-01-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103056
Shiqi Yao , Limin Song , Junkang Zhang
This study examines whether strengthened financial regulation can improve resource allocation efficiency and mitigate the labor market monopsony power of superstar firms. Utilizing China's New Asset Management Regulation (NAMR) as a quasi-natural experiment and panel data from Chinese listed firms (2007–2022), we employ a triple difference model to assess the impact of this heightened financial oversight. The results indicate that the regulation significantly curtails the monopsony power of superstar firms, an effect particularly pronounced for those characterized by high labor intensity, substantial R&D investment, and intense market competition. Mechanism analysis reveals that the policy operates by increasing labor input, boosting R&D spending, and improving the human capital structure, which collectively diminish firms' dominance in the labor market. These findings highlight the potential of financial regulation to enhance equity in income distribution.
本研究探讨强化金融监管是否能提高资源配置效率,减轻超级明星企业的劳动力市场垄断权。利用中国资产管理新规(NAMR)作为准自然实验和中国上市公司(2007-2022)的面板数据,我们采用三差模型来评估这种加强的金融监管的影响。结果表明,监管显著削弱了超级明星企业的垄断力量,对劳动强度高、研发投入大、市场竞争激烈的超级明星企业的影响尤为明显。机制分析表明,该政策通过增加劳动力投入、增加研发支出和改善人力资本结构来降低企业在劳动力市场中的主导地位。这些发现突出了金融监管在提高收入分配公平性方面的潜力。
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引用次数: 0
Inventors and firm innovation: Does location matter? 发明家和企业创新:地理位置重要吗?
IF 5.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.103054
Junbiao Yu
This study examines the impact of corporate headquarters location on firm innovation from the perspective of inventors. Utilizing a sample of Chinese publicly listed firms—a setting characterized by highly concentrated corporate R&D activities and the hukou-related labor frictions—we find that firms located near a higher density of local inventors achieve superior innovation output, as measured by patent counts and forward citations. The positive effect is more pronounced for younger, high-tech firms and those in less developed regions, supporting the local skilled labor supply mechanism. This talent supply also incentivizes firms to reallocate innovation efforts toward exploitative activities and accelerate human capital accumulation. Instrumental variable analysis using the Ming-Qing jinshi density supports a causal interpretation. Our findings provide novel evidence on the value of proximity to specialized human capital and inform policy discussions on mobility constraints.
本研究从发明者的角度考察了公司总部位置对企业创新的影响。我们利用中国上市公司的样本——一个以高度集中的企业研发活动和与户口相关的劳动力摩擦为特征的环境——发现,通过专利数量和前向引用来衡量,位于当地发明家密度较高的公司获得了更好的创新产出。对于较年轻的高科技企业和欠发达地区的企业来说,这种积极效应更为明显,支持了当地熟练劳动力的供应机制。这种人才供应也激励企业将创新努力重新分配给剥削性活动,加速人力资本积累。使用明清进石密度的工具变量分析支持因果解释。我们的研究结果为接近专业化人力资本的价值提供了新的证据,并为有关流动性约束的政策讨论提供了信息。
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引用次数: 0
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Pacific-Basin Finance Journal
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