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Impact of financial regulation on labor income share: Evidence from China 金融监管对劳动收入份额的影响:来自中国的证据
IF 4.8 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2024.102538
Quan Li , Kaiyan Zhan , Hexin Jiang , Tianshu Li , Yuan Zhang
Following the implementation of China's new asset management regulations as an exogenous event, this paper explores the changes in corporate labor income share brought about by the financial regulation. Through a series tests, we demonstrate that financial regulation has a positive impact on China's corporate labor income share. We find the ‘de-financialization’ effect associated with China's new asset management regulations has lowered the cost of corporate financing and improved the human capital structure, which act as transmission mechanisms of our result. On the cross section, the positive impact of financial regulation on corporate labor income share is particularly pronounced for Chinese State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs), and firms which are led by executives with a background in finance, and firms which have excessive capital investment or weak capital-labor interchangeability. In addition, this enhancement effect is affected by the degree of firms' principal agency and the importance they place on innovative. In summary, our study shed light on how government financial policy sharps corporate behavior in emerging market country, thus expanding and supplementing the existing literature. The result is of great significance to attempt to formulate financial regulatory policy and promote common prosperity in China.
本文以中国资管新规的实施为外生事件,探讨了金融监管带来的企业劳动收入占比的变化。通过一系列检验,我们证明了金融监管对中国企业劳动收入占比的积极影响。我们发现,与中国资管新规相关的 "去金融化 "效应降低了企业融资成本,改善了人力资本结构,这些都是我们研究结果的传导机制。从横截面来看,金融监管对企业劳动收入占比的积极影响在中国国有企业、由具有金融背景的高管领导的企业以及资本投入过多或资本-劳动互换性较弱的企业中尤为明显。此外,这种增强效应还受到企业委托代理程度及其对创新的重视程度的影响。总之,我们的研究揭示了政府金融政策如何影响新兴市场国家的企业行为,从而拓展和补充了现有文献。研究结果对中国制定金融监管政策、促进共同繁荣具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
Taking matters into their own hands: How Investors' stock preferences affect mutual fund flows in China 自己的事情自己做投资者的股票偏好如何影响中国的共同基金流动
IF 4.8 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2024.102537
Shi Li, Rongsha Fu, Meng Li
We examine the impact of investors' stock preferences in mutual funds' portfolios on fund flows in China. Our results indicate that mutual funds with an investment style consistent with individual investors' stock preferences have higher fund flow. We find that it affects only individual investors' fund flow, not institutional investors' fund flow. This impact is greater during periods of low economic policy uncertainty or high investor sentiment. Moreover, this impact is reduced with larger fund size or longer fund age. The reasonable explanation is that investors infer fund managers' skills by analyzing the stocks in the fund's portfolio. This explanation is further validated by the results using index funds as the control group. Our findings challenge the assumption that mutual fund investors fully delegate decisions to professionals. Further analysis reveals there is no significant correlation between these preferences and future returns. Our findings contribute to the study of mutual fund investor behavior from a fresh perspective.
我们研究了共同基金投资组合中投资者的股票偏好对中国资金流动的影响。结果表明,投资风格与个人投资者股票偏好一致的共同基金具有更高的资金流量。我们发现,它只影响个人投资者的资金流量,而不影响机构投资者的资金流量。在经济政策不确定性低或投资者情绪高涨时,这种影响更大。此外,基金规模越大或基金年龄越长,这种影响就越小。合理的解释是,投资者通过分析基金投资组合中的股票来推断基金经理的能力。以指数基金为对照组的结果进一步验证了这一解释。我们的研究结果对共同基金投资者完全将决策权委托给专业人士的假设提出了质疑。进一步的分析表明,这些偏好与未来回报之间没有明显的相关性。我们的研究结果有助于从一个全新的角度研究共同基金投资者的行为。
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引用次数: 0
Out-of-sample equity premium predictability: An EMD-denoising based model 样本外股票溢价可预测性:基于 EMD 去噪模型
IF 4.8 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2024.102536
Haohua Li , Yuhe Mei , Xianfeng Hao , Zhuo Chen
The poor out-of-sample forecasting performance of the stock returns of various predictors has been widely confirmed in the literature, which casts doubt on the reliability of stock-return predictability. However, the reliability of return predictability is closely related to the noise contained in the data. In this study, we design a new method to address the noise in the framework of empirical mode decomposition. The EMD method provides an efficient return decomposition, and based on which we selectively remove high-frequency components that are more likely to be contaminated by outliers. Our new model delivers statistically and economically significant out-of-sample gains relative to the historical average. The predictive ability mainly originates from the business-cycle risk and survives a series of robustness tests.
各种预测因子对股票收益的样本外预测效果不佳已在文献中得到广泛证实,这使人们对股票收益可预测性的可靠性产生了怀疑。然而,收益率可预测性的可靠性与数据中包含的噪声密切相关。在本研究中,我们在经验模式分解的框架下设计了一种新方法来解决噪声问题。EMD 方法提供了一种有效的回报分解,在此基础上,我们有选择性地移除了更有可能被异常值污染的高频成分。相对于历史平均值,我们的新模型在统计和经济上都能带来显著的样本外收益。预测能力主要源于商业周期风险,并通过了一系列稳健性测试。
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引用次数: 0
How Do Elite-Educated CEOs Choose the M&A Payment Method? Evidence from Taiwan 受过精英教育的首席执行官如何选择并购支付方式?来自台湾的证据
IF 4.8 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2024.102535
Dun-Yao Ke , Xuan-Qi Su
This paper examines the influence of CEOs with elite educations on the selection of payment methods in mergers and acquisitions (M&A). Analyzing a unique hand-collected dataset of M&A announcements involving Taiwanese acquirers during 2007–2020, we find that acquirers led by elite-educated CEOs are more likely to opt for cash financing in M&A transactions, a preference that persists even after conducting robustness tests and addressing endogeneity bias. Elite-educated CEOs with a Ph.D. or Master's degree in management- or finance-related disciplines are further found to exhibit a marked preference for cash payments, particularly when their firms face greater financial constraints. These observations can be attributed to potentially lower costs of external funding and might also reflect a perception among these CEOs that their firms are undervalued, as posited by both the financing proficiency hypothesis and the overconfidence trait hypothesis. By dissecting distinct implications of these two hypotheses for M&A valuation, we finally examine and show that acquirers led by elite-educated CEOs, particularly those choosing cash for M&A financing, experience superior post-M&A stock returns and operational performance. Our conclusion thus suggests that the financial acumen derived from elite education, rather than overconfidence, predominantly influences M&A payment methods and favorably impacts subsequent valuation outcomes. Overall, this study represents a pioneering effort to shed light on the often-overlooked role of top executives' elite educational backgrounds in strategic decision-making within the context of M&A.
本文研究了受过精英教育的首席执行官对并购(M&A)中支付方式选择的影响。通过分析手工收集的 2007-2020 年间涉及台湾收购方的并购公告数据集,我们发现精英教育背景的首席执行官领导的收购方在并购交易中更倾向于选择现金融资,即使在进行稳健性检验和解决内生性偏差后,这种偏好依然存在。受过精英教育、拥有管理或金融相关学科博士或硕士学位的首席执行官还表现出明显的现金支付偏好,尤其是当他们的公司面临更大的财务限制时。这些观察结果可以归因于外部融资的潜在成本较低,也可能反映出这些首席执行官认为其公司价值被低估,正如融资能力假说和过度自信特质假说所假设的那样。通过剖析这两个假说对并购估值的不同影响,我们最终研究并表明,由受过精英教育的首席执行官领导的并购方,尤其是那些选择现金进行并购融资的并购方,在并购后的股票回报和经营业绩都非常出色。因此,我们的结论表明,精英教育所带来的财务敏锐度,而不是过度自信,是影响并购支付方式的主要因素,并对随后的估值结果产生有利影响。总之,这项研究是一项开创性的工作,它揭示了高层管理人员的精英教育背景在 M&A 背景下的战略决策中经常被忽视的作用。
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引用次数: 0
Multilayer network analysis of idiosyncratic volatility connectedness: Evidence from China 特异性波动关联性的多层网络分析:来自中国的证据
IF 4.8 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2024.102533
Xuewei Zhou , Zisheng Ouyang , Min Lu , Zhongzhe Ouyang

This paper proposes multilayer networks, including lagged, contemporaneous, and long-run networks, to examine the idiosyncratic connectedness among Chinese financial institutions. We explore the topology of multilayer networks through static and dynamic analysis to capture the information transmission mechanism of idiosyncratic risks. Moreover, we investigate the drivers influencing idiosyncratic connectedness across financial institutions. We find that idiosyncratic risk contagion among financial institutions is stronger in the long-run network. At the same time, we note that the three networks contain different connection structures, which means that the information transmission mechanism of idiosyncratic risks is heterogeneous in multilayer networks. In addition, when the financial system is under stress, we observe that the contemporaneous effect of idiosyncratic connectedness rises rapidly. Institutional level analysis shows that diversified financial institutions play active roles in the lagged network, securities institutions are transmitters of contemporaneous information spillovers, and banking institutions are the main drivers of the long-run network. Finally, our study shows that size is the main factor driving idiosyncratic risk spillovers among financial institutions.

本文提出了包括滞后网络、同期网络和长期网络在内的多层网络来研究中国金融机构之间的特质关联性。我们通过静态和动态分析探索多层网络的拓扑结构,以捕捉特质风险的信息传递机制。此外,我们还研究了影响各金融机构特质关联性的驱动因素。我们发现,在长期网络中,金融机构之间的特质风险传染性更强。同时,我们注意到三个网络包含不同的连接结构,这意味着特质风险的信息传递机制在多层网络中具有异质性。此外,当金融体系面临压力时,我们观察到特质关联性的同期效应迅速上升。机构层面的分析表明,多元化金融机构在滞后网络中发挥着积极作用,证券机构是同期信息溢出的传播者,而银行机构则是长期网络的主要驱动力。最后,我们的研究表明,规模是驱动金融机构间特异性风险溢出的主要因素。
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引用次数: 0
Aversion to the use of foreign exchange hedging in state-owned enterprises: Evidence from China 国有企业对使用外汇套期保值的反感:来自中国的证据
IF 4.8 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2024.102523
Xin Wang , Xiaobei Hao , Yue Sun

Using a sample of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) listed in China from 2006 to 2017, we examine the impact of state ownership on foreign exchange (forex) hedging. We find that SOEs engage in forex hedging both less frequently and to a lesser extent than non-SOEs. These results are robust to a series of additional tests, such as difference-in-differences analyses, instrumental variable tests, and alternative explanation tests. The effect is particularly pronounced for SOEs with weaker internal controls, fewer professional auditors, and less marketization. We further find that the use of currency derivatives by SOEs hinders the promotion of managers. Furthermore, the prevalence of subjective performance evaluation in SOEs, as opposed to objective performance measures, affects managers' decisions regarding hedging, as evidenced by negative promotion–performance sensitivity when using financial derivatives. Overall, our study sheds light on the aversion of SOEs to forex hedging, providing insight into the conservative decision-making tendencies of SOE managers under political governance.

我们以 2006 年至 2017 年在中国上市的国有企业为样本,研究了国有所有权对外汇套期保值的影响。我们发现,国有企业参与外汇套期保值的频率和程度均低于非国有企业。这些结果经受住了一系列附加检验,如差分分析、工具变量检验和替代解释检验。对于内部控制较弱、专业审计师较少以及市场化程度较低的国有企业,这种影响尤为明显。我们还发现,国有企业使用货币衍生工具会阻碍管理人员的晋升。此外,相对于客观的绩效衡量标准,国有企业中普遍存在的主观绩效评估会影响管理者的套期保值决策,使用金融衍生品时晋升绩效的负敏感性就证明了这一点。总之,我们的研究揭示了国有企业对外汇套期保值的厌恶,为政治治理下国有企业管理者的保守决策倾向提供了启示。
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引用次数: 0
Conditional volatility targeting strategy considering jump effects: Evidence from sustainable ESG equity index 考虑跳跃效应的条件波动率目标策略:可持续 ESG 股票指数的证据
IF 4.8 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2024.102525
Jr-Wei Huang , Sharon S. Yang , Hung-Wen Cheng

This paper considers the sustainable ESG equity index in the proposed conditional volatility targeting strategy. The research first detects jump risk using a jump test and then extends Bongaerts et al. (2020) by addressing jump risk and employing different volatility models to project volatilities under the conditional volatility targeting strategy. To capture consideration of the fact that index return dynamics, we propose an ARMA-GARCH jump model that can capture the characteristics of jump persistence, autocorrelation, and volatility clustering according to the return of the sustainable equity index. Our numerical analyses reveal that the portfolio allocation using a sustainable equity index to predict volatility, combined with a conditional volatility target strategy, can achieve higher performance. Furthermore, the proposed ARMA-GARCH jump model can enhance the performance with conditional volatility targeting strategy.

本文在拟议的条件波动率目标策略中考虑了可持续的环境、社会和公司治理股票指数。研究首先使用跳跃测试检测跳跃风险,然后扩展 Bongaerts 等人(2020 年)的研究,解决跳跃风险问题,并采用不同的波动率模型预测条件波动率目标策略下的波动率。为了考虑指数收益动态这一事实,我们提出了一个 ARMA-GARCH 跳跃模型,该模型可以根据可持续股票指数的收益来捕捉跳跃持续性、自相关性和波动性聚类的特征。我们的数值分析表明,使用可持续股票指数预测波动率的投资组合配置与条件波动率目标策略相结合,可以获得更高的绩效。此外,所提出的 ARMA-GARCH 跳跃模型可以提高条件波动率目标策略的性能。
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引用次数: 0
Do creditors punish weak banks? Evidence from Indian urban cooperative banks’ failure 债权人会惩罚弱小银行吗?印度城市合作银行倒闭的证据
IF 4.8 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2024.102517
Sakshi Narula , Manish K. Singh
This study empirically assesses two critical hypotheses related to market discipline: (i) Do depositors penalize underperforming banks by withdrawing their deposits? and (ii) Do well-informed peer banks reduce lending to weak banks? Based on the annual standalone balance sheet data of urban cooperative banks in India from 1990 to 2020, our findings suggest that: (i) the behaviour of savings and current depositors is not significantly affected by the bank risk; (ii) the risk-taking behaviour of the banks significantly influences term deposits; and (iii) other informed peer banks and financial institutions do respond to the riskiness of peer banks. Additionally, our research revealed a positive association between the size of assets and the deposit growth rate, indicating that depositors are responsive to the influence of the “too-big-to-fail” phenomenon. Moreover, depositors are sensitive to banks’ non-interest expenditures. Banks with higher non-interest expenditures pay a higher interest rate to retain depositors, thus suggesting the presence of weak market discipline.
本研究对与市场纪律有关的两个关键假设进行了实证评估:(i) 储户是否会通过提取存款来惩罚表现不佳的银行? (ii) 信息灵通的同业银行是否会减少对弱小银行的贷款?基于 1990 年至 2020 年印度城市合作银行的年度独立资产负债表数据,我们的研究结果表明(i) 储蓄和活期储户的行为受银行风险的影响不大;(ii) 银行的风险承担行为对定期存款有显著影响;(iii) 其他知情的同业银行和金融机构确实会对同业银行的风险性做出反应。此外,我们的研究还发现,资产规模与存款增长率之间存在正相关关系,这表明储户对 "大而不倒 "现象的影响反应灵敏。此外,储户对银行的非利息支出也很敏感。非利息支出越高的银行为留住储户支付的利率也越高,这表明市场纪律薄弱。
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引用次数: 0
The impact of COVID-19 on global investor attention COVID-19 对全球投资者关注度的影响
IF 4.8 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2024.102522
Zih-Ying Lin, Jia-Wen Lu

This research explores the effect of COVID-19 on global investor attention using data from G7 and G20 countries. We take the numbers of COVID-19 new confirmed cases and deaths to measure the level of COVID-19. The empirical findings show that COVID-19 new cases and deaths significantly positively correlate to (abnormal) investor attention, especially for G7 countries, but we only see a significantly positive correlation in a few G20 countries. We further consider the effect of COVID-19 variants and vaccination rate on such a correlation and present that its effect on global investor attention is more pronounced during the Alpha variant and Delta variant waves. Finally, we provide evidence when vaccination rates are higher that the positive COVID-19 and global investor attention nexus weakens.

本研究利用 G7 和 G20 国家的数据探讨了 COVID-19 对全球投资者关注度的影响。我们用 COVID-19 新确诊病例数和死亡数来衡量 COVID-19 的水平。实证研究结果表明,COVID-19 新增病例和死亡人数与(异常)投资者关注度显著正相关,尤其是在 G7 国家,但我们只在少数 G20 国家看到显著正相关。我们进一步考虑了 COVID-19 变体和疫苗接种率对这种相关性的影响,并发现其对全球投资者关注度的影响在阿尔法变体和德尔塔变体波期间更为明显。最后,我们提供的证据表明,当疫苗接种率较高时,COVID-19 与全球投资者关注度之间的正相关关系会减弱。
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引用次数: 0
Bankruptcy experiences and cash holding behaviors: Case of Japan 破产经验与现金持有行为:日本案例
IF 4.8 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2024.102519
Po-Lin Chen

Using data on Japanese listed firms, we find that companies are more likely to take risks when one or more of their directors experience corporate bankruptcy at another firm when serving concurrently as a director. Consequently, these companies reduce their cash reserves by issuing less equity. This tendency to take greater risk is concentrated in firms that are in a more favorable financial condition or where the interlocked bankruptcy firm has been through less costly bankruptcy. Our findings suggest that past experiences significantly shape individual preferences for taking risk, even if these experiences occur during their professional careers. Further, the effects of bankruptcy experiences on Japanese directors, who are usually considered risk averse, exhibit shifts in risk taking like that found in the US.

利用日本上市公司的数据,我们发现,当一家或多家公司的董事在兼任另一家公司的董事期间遭遇公司破产时,这些公司更有可能承担风险。因此,这些公司会通过减少发行股票来减少现金储备。这种承担更大风险的倾向主要集中在财务状况较好的公司,或者破产互锁公司的破产成本较低的公司。我们的研究结果表明,过去的经历在很大程度上影响了个人承担风险的偏好,即使这些经历发生在他们的职业生涯中。此外,日本董事通常被认为是风险规避者,而破产经历对他们的影响却表现出与美国类似的风险承担偏好转变。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Pacific-Basin Finance Journal
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