Pacific-Basin Finance Journal最新文献

英文中文

Information diffusion through weighted positive causal networks: Evidence from pair-based trading strategy in China 加权正因果网络中的信息扩散：来自中国配对交易策略的证据

IF 5.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Pacific-Basin Finance Journal

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.103002

Hui Bu , Huanghao Chen , Wenjin Tang , Jerome Yen , Erya Zheng

This study develops a novel weighted positive causal network (WPCN) approach to analyze directional information flow and causal return comovement in stock markets. Building on Granger causality tests, the proposed method distinguishes positive lead-lag relationships—reflecting differences in information diffusion speed—from negative ones that capture heterogeneous responses to shared information. Using daily data for the CSI 1000 constituents from 2019 to 2023, we construct positive causal networks and evaluate their predictive power through a pair-based trading strategy. Empirical results show that the positive causal network effectively identifies stable positive lead-lag relationships among small- and mid-cap stocks in China. Trading strategies based on the WPCN achieve higher winning rates and cumulative returns than those relying on unweighted causal networks, particularly for strongly positive causal linkage stock pairs. These findings highlight the economic significance of causal linkages in return comovement and provide new evidence on the dynamics of information transmission in China's small- and mid-cap stock market.

本文提出了一种新的加权正因果网络方法来分析股票市场的定向信息流和因果回报运动。在格兰杰因果检验的基础上，提出的方法区分了积极的领先-滞后关系（反映信息传播速度的差异）和消极的领先-滞后关系（反映对共享信息的异质反应）。利用2019年至2023年沪深1000成分股的日常数据，我们构建了正因果网络，并通过基于配对的交易策略评估了它们的预测能力。实证结果表明，正因果网络有效识别了中国中小市值股之间稳定的正领先滞后关系。基于WPCN的交易策略比那些依赖于未加权因果网络的交易策略获得更高的胜率和累积回报，特别是对于强正因果联系的股票对。这些发现突出了收益变动因果关系的经济意义，并为中国中小市值股票市场的信息传递动态提供了新的证据。

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引用次数: 0

The resource coopetition effect in family business succession: Successor maturity and corporate risk-taking 家族企业继承中的资源合作效应：继承人成熟度与企业风险承担

IF 5.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Pacific-Basin Finance Journal

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.103052

Lei Zhu , Jiong Wu , Shanshan Xiao

Intergenerational succession in family firms raises a basic question: when control passes to the next generation, do firms take more risk, and why? Using a panel of Chinese A-share listed family firms, we develop a composite index of successor maturity—capturing the successor's business capability and willingness to lead—and examine its association with corporate risk-taking. We find that firms led by more mature successors exhibit higher risk-taking. This relation operates through an external relational mechanism: successor maturity is linked to how the firm co-operates and competes with external stakeholders over resources; we proxy these dynamics using supplier and customer concentration. The effect is stronger when financing constraints are weaker and product-market competition is more intense. Overall, our findings suggest that post-succession risk-taking is shaped not only by the successor, but also by the family firm's position in the broader network of resource coopetition in which it is embedded.

家族企业的代际继承提出了一个基本问题：当控制权移交给下一代时，企业是否会承担更大的风险，为什么？我们以中国a股上市家族企业为研究对象，建立了接班人成熟度的综合指数（反映接班人的业务能力和领导意愿），并考察了接班人成熟度与企业风险承担的关系。我们发现，由更成熟的继任者领导的公司表现出更高的冒险精神。这种关系通过外部关系机制起作用：继任者成熟度与企业如何与外部利益相关者就资源进行合作和竞争有关；我们使用供应商和客户集中度来代理这些动态。融资约束越弱，产品市场竞争越激烈，这种效应越强。总体而言，我们的研究结果表明，继承后的风险承担不仅受到继任者的影响，还受到家族企业在其所处的更广泛的资源合作网络中的地位的影响。

引用次数: 0

How does artificial intelligence affect the financing efficiency of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs)? 人工智能如何影响中小企业的融资效率？

IF 5.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Pacific-Basin Finance Journal

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.103036

Ya Bu , Ningxian Jin , Hui Li

This study examines how artificial intelligence (AI) affects the financing efficiency of SMEs in China from 2007 to 2023. Using a novel AI adoption index derived from annual report text analysis and a comprehensive financing efficiency measure, we find that AI significantly improves SME financing efficiency by reducing costs and risks and enhancing returns. The effects operate through alleviating information asymmetry, easing financing constraints, and promoting innovation. The impact is more pronounced for non-state-owned firms, technology-intensive industries, and those in eastern China. These findings offer insights for digital transformation in emerging market SMEs.

本研究考察了人工智能（AI）如何影响2007年至2023年中国中小企业的融资效率。通过年度报告文本分析和综合融资效率度量，我们发现人工智能通过降低成本和风险以及提高回报显著提高了中小企业的融资效率。这种效应通过缓解信息不对称、缓解融资约束和促进创新来发挥作用。这种影响对非国有企业、技术密集型产业和中国东部地区的企业更为明显。这些发现为新兴市场中小企业的数字化转型提供了见解。

引用次数: 0

Learn to explain the smile: An interpretable hybrid machine learning model to understand the implied volatility of CSI 300 options 学会解释微笑：一个可解释的混合机器学习模型来理解沪深300期权的隐含波动率

IF 5.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Pacific-Basin Finance Journal

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.103038

Pengshi Li , Jinbo Huang , Yan Lin

We propose an interpretable hybrid machine learning framework for forecasting and explaining implied volatility surface dynamics of CSI 300 index options. Our methodology leverages machine learning to correct a theory-based baseline model. Initial predictions are derived from an analytical model, while the second stage involves a machine learning model trained on the residuals of the first stage. We construct three variants of hybrid models using XGBoost: a baseline three-feature model, a VIX-augmented four-feature model, and a five-feature model incorporating a newly developed options-implied ambiguity index. Empirical results using 2019–2025 CSI 300 options data show that the five-feature model significantly outperforms both the analytical benchmark and VIX-only model. Performance improvements are especially pronounced in market rallies and high-ambiguity regimes, where ambiguity attenuates implied volatility compression and amplifies perceptions of downside risk. We further use SHAP value analysis to demonstrate that feature effects are economically coherent and state-dependent. Our findings confirm that ambiguity is a distinct and quantitatively meaningful risk factor for explaining implied volatility dynamics in emerging market.

我们提出了一个可解释的混合机器学习框架来预测和解释沪深300指数期权的隐含波动率表面动态。我们的方法利用机器学习来纠正基于理论的基线模型。最初的预测来自一个分析模型，而第二阶段涉及一个基于第一阶段的残差训练的机器学习模型。我们使用XGBoost构建了混合模型的三种变体：基线三特征模型，vix增强四特征模型，以及包含新开发的选项隐含歧义指数的五特征模型。使用2019-2025年沪深300期权数据的实证结果表明，五特征模型显著优于分析基准模型和仅vix模型。在市场反弹和高度模糊的情况下，业绩改善尤其明显，在这种情况下，模糊性减弱了隐含波动率压缩，放大了对下行风险的感知。我们进一步使用SHAP值分析来证明特征效应在经济上是连贯的和依赖于状态的。我们的研究结果证实，模糊性是解释新兴市场隐含波动率动态的一个独特且定量有意义的风险因素。

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引用次数: 0

The impact of climate risk on municipal bonds pricing: Evidence from Chinese Chengtou bonds 气候风险对市政债券定价的影响：来自中国城市债券的证据

IF 5.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Pacific-Basin Finance Journal

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.103040

Chuanhai Zhang , Zhongjie Zheng , Tao Bing

Due to global warming, extreme climate events have become increasingly frequent, posing new challenges to both the real economy and the financial system. In this paper, we construct both extreme temperature and precipitation risk indicators as two proxies for climate risk to examine their impact on the pricing of Chinese Chengtou bonds. The main findings are summarized as follows. First, both extreme temperature and precipitation risks significantly increase the issuance spreads of Chinese Chengtou bonds, and the main findings are supported by a series of robustness checks. Second, mechanism analyses reveal that extreme temperatures weaken the solvency of LGFVs and the implicit guarantees of local governments, while extreme precipitation has no such effect. Third, heterogeneity analysis reveals that climate risk has a greater impact on Chengtou bonds that receive more public attention and are issued by platforms at higher administrative levels, while no significant differences are observed across bond maturities.

由于全球气候变暖，极端气候事件日益频繁，对实体经济和金融体系都提出了新的挑战。本文构建了极端温度和降水风险指标作为气候风险的两个代理指标，考察了它们对中国城头债券定价的影响。主要研究结果总结如下：首先，极端温度和降水风险均显著增加了中国城头债券的发行价差，并得到了一系列稳健性检验的支持。其次，机制分析表明，极端气温会削弱地方政府融资平台的偿付能力和地方政府的隐性担保，而极端降水则没有这种影响。第三，异质性分析表明，气候风险对公众关注度较高、行政级别较高的城头债券的影响更大，但不同期限的债券没有显著差异。

引用次数: 0

Forward-looking signals and the predictability of size effect in the Taiwan stock market 台湾股市的前瞻信号与规模效应的可预测性

IF 5.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Pacific-Basin Finance Journal

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.103021

Kuan-Cheng Ko , Shu-Feng Wang , Wen-Chi Lo , Pei-Chun Tsai (Anny)

Guo (2023) finds that the size effect is predictable by the forward-looking signals, providing a plausible explanation for the disappearance of the size effect in the U.S. since its discovery. We obtain strong evidence that forward-looking signals are effective in predicting the size premium in Taiwan, where evidence of the size effect is inconclusive. In contrast to the U.S. evidence, this study shows that information barriers have limited impact on the predictable size effect in Taiwan. Moreover, stock illiquidity and limits-to-arbitrage based on limit-hit frequency provide better explanatory power for predicting the size effect in Taiwan.

Guo（2023）发现，规模效应可以通过前瞻性信号来预测，这为美国发现规模效应后规模效应消失提供了合理的解释。我们获得了强有力的证据，表明前瞻性信号在预测规模溢价方面是有效的，在台湾，规模效应的证据是不确定的。与美国的研究结果相比，本研究显示资讯壁垒对台湾的可预测规模效应影响有限。此外，股票非流动性和基于跌停频率的限制套利对预测台湾地区的规模效应有较好的解释力。

引用次数: 0

The impact of intergenerational succession in family businesses on international strategy: A pre-registered report 家族企业代际继承对国际战略的影响：一份预注册报告

IF 5.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Pacific-Basin Finance Journal

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.103030

Honglin Ren , Anqi Jiao

This pre-registered study explores the impact of intergenerational succession on the international strategy of family businesses. Conceptualizing succession as a critical inflection point in corporate governance, we examine whether leadership transition to a next-generation family member influences a firm's likelihood to initiate or expand international operations. Drawing on agency theory, socioemotional wealth, and dynamic capabilities, we propose that successor characteristics—such as foreign education or work experience—affect global strategic orientation. Using a quasi-natural experimental design, we will employ a difference-in-differences approach to evaluate how succession events affect internationalization outcomes, while also investigating the moderating roles of founder retention and governance professionalization. This study aims to provide theoretical insights into strategic transformation in family firms and generate practical implications for succession planning and globalization strategies, particularly in emerging market contexts.

本研究旨在探讨代际传承对家族企业国际战略的影响。我们将继任概念定义为公司治理的一个关键拐点，研究领导权移交给下一代家族成员是否会影响公司启动或扩大国际业务的可能性。根据代理理论、社会情感财富和动态能力，我们提出继承人的特征——如国外教育或工作经历——会影响全球战略导向。采用准自然实验设计，我们将采用差异中的差异方法来评估继任事件如何影响国际化结果，同时研究创始人留任和治理专业化的调节作用。本研究旨在为家族企业的战略转型提供理论见解，并对继任规划和全球化战略产生实际影响，特别是在新兴市场背景下。

引用次数: 0

The role of state-owned capital in the innovation of private-owned enterprises: Evidence from China 国有资本在民营企业创新中的作用：来自中国的证据

IF 5.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Pacific-Basin Finance Journal

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.103031

Haiyan Xue , Haijuan Zhang , Xindong Zhang , Shusheng Ding

This study investigates the impact of state-owned capital on the innovation of private-owned enterprises (POEs) in China, differentiating between its direct role as a shareholder and its indirect role exerted through common ownership network. Using a sample of A-share listed manufacturing firms from 2014 to 2022, this paper finds that state-owned capital significantly promotes POEs innovation. Specifically, the indirect role enhances both innovation input (R&D investment) and output (total patents and invention patents), whereas the direct role primarily fosters high-quality innovation output (invention patents). Further mechanism analyses reveal that state-owned capital facilitates innovation through resource effect (capital, talent, and knowledge) and governance effect. The indirect role operates mainly through capital and talent resource effects, coupled with the governance effect of alleviating managerial myopia. In contrast, the direct role functions through talent and knowledge resource effects, along with the governance effect of managerial incentives. This paper provides novel insights into the multifaceted influence of state-owned capital on POEs innovation and highlights a critical role of state-owned capital in fostering innovation under common ownership network.

本文研究了国有资本对中国民营企业创新的影响，区分了国有资本作为股东的直接作用和通过共同所有权网络发挥的间接作用。本文以2014 - 2022年a股制造业上市公司为样本，发现国有资本对企业创新有显著促进作用。具体而言，间接作用增加了创新投入（研发投入）和产出（总专利和发明专利），而直接作用主要促进了高质量的创新产出（发明专利）。进一步的机制分析表明，国有资本通过资源效应（资本、人才和知识）和治理效应促进创新。间接作用主要通过资本和人才资源效应，外加缓解管理短视的治理效应来发挥作用。而直接作用则是通过人才和知识资源效应，以及管理激励的治理效应来发挥作用。本文对国有资本对民营企业创新的多方面影响提供了新的见解，并强调了国有资本在共同所有制网络下促进创新的关键作用。

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引用次数: 0

Conservatism and silence: The clan premium 保守与沉默：宗族溢价

IF 5.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Pacific-Basin Finance Journal

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2026.103068

Jier Zhang, Libo Yin

This paper investigates the asset pricing implications of clan culture, the root culture of China. We construct a long–short portfolio based on firms with high versus low clan strength and uncover a significant positive return spread. This clan premium remains robust after controlling for standard risk factors and firm characteristics, and is resilient to endogeneity and sensitivity checks. Further analysis suggests that such premium cannot be attributed to systematic risk, but is more consistent with a mispricing-based explanation rooted in behavioral preferences of clan-affiliated firms. Specifically, the persistent conservatism in corporate decisions conveys unjustifiably pessimistic signals to investors, leading to persistent undervaluation; clan-affiliated firms' limited disclosure incentives create an environment of informational opacity, impeding investors' timely recognition of positive information. In addition, we verify that clan-affiliated firms exhibit strong economic performance, thereby ruling out the possibility that the observed conservative behavior and low disclosure are driven by weak fundamentals.

本文考察了中国的根文化宗族文化对资产定价的影响。我们基于家族实力高低的公司构建了一个多空组合，并发现了显著的正回报价差。在控制了标准风险因素和公司特征后，该氏族溢价仍然稳健，并且对内生性和敏感性检查具有弹性。进一步的分析表明，这种溢价不能归因于系统风险，而更符合根植于家族关联公司行为偏好的基于错误定价的解释。具体而言，企业决策中的持续保守主义向投资者传递了不合理的悲观信号，导致持续低估；家族关联公司有限的信息披露激励机制造成了信息不透明的环境，阻碍了投资者对积极信息的及时识别。此外，我们验证了家族关联公司表现出强劲的经济表现，从而排除了观察到的保守行为和低披露是由疲弱的基本面驱动的可能性。

引用次数: 0

Family firms performance under competitive pressure: Evidence from market access reforms in China 竞争压力下的家族企业绩效：来自中国市场准入改革的证据

IF 5.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Pacific-Basin Finance Journal

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.103010

Yuanyuan Liu , Jingwen Zhang , Qingmiao Bi , Joseph Onochie

This study investigates how heightened market competition, induced by the staggered implementation of China's Market Access Negative List Reform, influences the performance and strategic behavior of family firms. Using a panel dataset of Chinese listed companies from 2012 to 2018, we find that: (1) family firms experienced a significant profitability decline of approximately 1.3 percentage points relative to non-family firms after the policy shock; (2) family firms with longer generational succession and more family members in management were associated with greater vulnerability when facing increased competition; and (3) these effects seem to be persistent, and family firms show indications of strategic responses that emphasize retrenchment and inward governance consolidation, while their relative disadvantage may further constrain their ability of family firms to pursue green and sustainable development goals. Our results indicate that external market-oriented reforms may coincide with heightened salience of internal governance vulnerabilities, potentially posing challenges to the resilience of family-owned enterprises in a rapidly evolving institutional environment.

本文研究了中国市场准入负面清单改革的交错实施所导致的市场竞争加剧对家族企业绩效和战略行为的影响。利用2012 - 2018年中国上市公司面板数据，我们发现：(1)政策冲击后，家族企业相对于非家族企业的盈利能力显著下降约1.3个百分点；(2)家族企业世代相传时间越长、家族成员越多，面临竞争时脆弱性越大；(3)这些效应似乎是持续的，家族企业表现出强调紧缩和内部治理巩固的战略响应迹象，而家族企业的相对劣势可能进一步制约家族企业追求绿色可持续发展目标的能力。我们的研究结果表明，外部市场化改革可能与内部治理脆弱性的凸显相吻合，这可能对家族企业在快速变化的制度环境中的弹性构成挑战。

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