Pub Date : 2022-11-03DOI: 10.1007/s11109-022-09827-w
Peter T. McLaughlin, Matthew J. Geras, Sarina Rhinehart
{"title":"Supporting Veterans: Source Cues, Issue Ownership,and the Electoral Benefits of Military Service","authors":"Peter T. McLaughlin, Matthew J. Geras, Sarina Rhinehart","doi":"10.1007/s11109-022-09827-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-022-09827-w","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48166,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2022-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45877395","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-10-23DOI: 10.1007/s11109-022-09826-x
Carlos Algara, Sharif Amlani, Samuel Collitt, Isaac Hale, Sara Kazemian
From the onset of the first confirmed case of COVID-19 in January 2020 to Election Day in November, the United States experienced over 9,400,000 cases and 232,000 deaths. This crisis largely defined the campaign between former Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump, centering on the Trump administration's efforts in mitigating the number of cases and deaths. While conventional wisdom suggested that Trump and his party would lose support due to the severity of COVID-19 across the country, such an effect is hotly debated empirically and theoretically. In this research, we evaluate the extent to which the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic influenced support for President Trump in the 2020 election. Across differing modeling strategies and a variety of data sources, we find evidence that President Trump gained support in counties with higher COVID-19 deaths. We provide an explanation for this finding by showing that voters concerned about the economic impacts of pandemic-related restrictions on activity were more likely to support Trump and that local COVID-19 severity was predictive of these economic concerns. While COVID-19 likely contributed to Trump's loss in 2020, our analysis demonstrates that he gained support among voters in localities worst affected by the pandemic.
Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11109-022-09826-x.
{"title":"Nail in the Coffin or Lifeline? Evaluating the Electoral Impact of COVID-19 on President Trump in the 2020 Election.","authors":"Carlos Algara, Sharif Amlani, Samuel Collitt, Isaac Hale, Sara Kazemian","doi":"10.1007/s11109-022-09826-x","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11109-022-09826-x","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>From the onset of the first confirmed case of COVID-19 in January 2020 to Election Day in November, the United States experienced over 9,400,000 cases and 232,000 deaths. This crisis largely defined the campaign between former Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump, centering on the Trump administration's efforts in mitigating the number of cases and deaths. While conventional wisdom suggested that Trump and his party would lose support due to the severity of COVID-19 across the country, such an effect is hotly debated empirically and theoretically. In this research, we evaluate the extent to which the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic influenced support for President Trump in the 2020 election. Across differing modeling strategies and a variety of data sources, we find evidence that President Trump gained support in counties with higher COVID-19 deaths. We provide an explanation for this finding by showing that voters concerned about the economic impacts of pandemic-related restrictions on activity were more likely to support Trump and that local COVID-19 severity was predictive of these economic concerns. While COVID-19 likely contributed to Trump's loss in 2020, our analysis demonstrates that he gained support among voters in localities worst affected by the pandemic.</p><p><strong>Supplementary information: </strong>The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11109-022-09826-x.</p>","PeriodicalId":48166,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior","volume":" ","pages":"1-29"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2022-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9589550/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10418896","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-10-21DOI: 10.1007/s11109-022-09829-8
J. Kirkland, Elizabeth N. Simas, Scott Clifford
{"title":"Perceptions of Party Incongruence and Nascent Political Ambition","authors":"J. Kirkland, Elizabeth N. Simas, Scott Clifford","doi":"10.1007/s11109-022-09829-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-022-09829-8","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48166,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2022-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48981244","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-10-13DOI: 10.1007/s11109-022-09818-x
M. Lyon, A. Hemphill, R. Jacobsen
{"title":"How Do Unions Create Candidates?","authors":"M. Lyon, A. Hemphill, R. Jacobsen","doi":"10.1007/s11109-022-09818-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-022-09818-x","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48166,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2022-10-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43750293","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-09-23DOI: 10.1007/s11109-022-09823-0
M. Hayes, Cara J. Wong, Andrew J. Bloeser, M. Fredrickson, Chera LaForge
{"title":"Elected Officials, Empowered Voters: The Impact of Descriptive Representation on Voter Turnout","authors":"M. Hayes, Cara J. Wong, Andrew J. Bloeser, M. Fredrickson, Chera LaForge","doi":"10.1007/s11109-022-09823-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-022-09823-0","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48166,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2022-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45063916","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-09-20DOI: 10.1007/s11109-022-09819-w
Zhengyan Li
{"title":"Alarmed but Unmoved: The Impact of the Provision of Correct Local Environmental Information","authors":"Zhengyan Li","doi":"10.1007/s11109-022-09819-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-022-09819-w","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48166,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2022-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48482905","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-09-20DOI: 10.1007/s11109-022-09822-1
Alexandra Filindra, Noah J. Kaplan, Beyza E. Buyuker
{"title":"Correction: Beyond Performance: Racial Prejudice and Whites’ Mistrust of Government","authors":"Alexandra Filindra, Noah J. Kaplan, Beyza E. Buyuker","doi":"10.1007/s11109-022-09822-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-022-09822-1","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48166,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior","volume":"44 1","pages":"2049-2050"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2022-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42869175","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-08-30DOI: 10.1007/s11109-022-09815-0
C. D. Myers, K. Zhirkov, Kristin Lunz Trujillo
{"title":"Who Is “On Welfare”? Validating the Use of Conjoint Experiments to Measure Stereotype Content","authors":"C. D. Myers, K. Zhirkov, Kristin Lunz Trujillo","doi":"10.1007/s11109-022-09815-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-022-09815-0","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48166,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2022-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41450933","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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