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Talking representation: How legislators re-establish responsiveness in cases of representational deficits 谈论代表性:立法者如何在代表权缺失的情况下重建回应能力
IF 3.6 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-12-12 DOI: 10.1111/1475-6765.12648
REUT ITZKOVITCH-MALKA, GUY MOR, ODELIA OSHRI, SHAUL SHENHAV

A close connection between public opinion and policy is considered a vital element of democracy. However, legislators cannot be responsive to all voters at all times with regard to the policies the latter favour. We argue that legislators use their speaking time in parliament to offer compensatory speech to their constituents who might oppose how they voted on a policy, in order to re-establish themselves as responsive to the public's wishes. Leveraging the case of Brexit, we show that legislators pay more attention to constituents who might be dissatisfied with how they voted. Furthermore, their use of rhetorical responsiveness is contingent on the magnitude of the representational deficit they face vis-à-vis their constituency. Our findings attest to the central role of parliamentary speech in maintaining responsiveness. They also demonstrate that communicative responsiveness can substitute for policy responsiveness.

民意与政策之间的密切联系被认为是民主的一个重要因素。然而,立法者不可能在任何时候都对所有选民所支持的政策做出回应。我们认为,立法者会利用其在议会的发言时间,向可能反对其对某项政策投票的选民发表补偿性讲话,以重新确立自己对公众意愿的回应。通过英国脱欧这一案例,我们发现立法者会更加关注那些可能对其投票结果不满的选民。此外,他们对修辞回应的使用取决于他们相对于选区所面临的代表赤字的程度。我们的研究结果证明了议会演讲在保持回应性方面的核心作用。我们的研究结果还表明,沟通反应能力可以替代政策反应能力。
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引用次数: 0
The times they are a-changin': An experimental assessment of the causes and consequences of sudden policy U-turns 时代在变:对政策突然转向的原因和后果的实验性评估
IF 3.6 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-12-12 DOI: 10.1111/1475-6765.12650
MOHAMED NASR, EMMA HOES

Past research has long documented that voters dislike parties and leaders who reverse their policy positions. But would they tolerate (principled) policy U-turns if they are motivated by external events, such as a large-scale crisis or scientific evidence? In this study, we explore whether the motivation behind positional shifts affects voter evaluations of political parties. To do so, we seek to connect the causes and consequences of policy shifts, a synergy still unexplored in the literature. We suggest that, while U-turns, in general, can be damaging to a party's reputation, principled changes brought about by new scientific evidence or major crises should not necessarily have negative implications, because these changes can be necessary for the public good. We conducted a nationally representative survey experiment in Germany (n = 3127) featuring two classes of policy reversals: strategic and principled. Surprisingly, however, we find that voters by and large hold negative views of different types of policy U-turns, thus including when external circumstances suggest change may be necessary. Interestingly, our empirical analysis reveals intriguing patterns. First, voters are willing to tolerate all sorts of policy reversals if the party ends up adopting their positions, suggesting that proximity matters even in the event of exogenous events. Second, voters with high levels of political trust tolerate different types of policy reversals, even when the party changes for mere strategic office-seeking motivations. Coming from the premise that political and societal change is imperative, these findings have direct implications for democracies.

过去的研究早已证明,选民不喜欢改变政策立场的政党和领导人。但是,如果政策(原则性)转向是受外部事件(如大规模危机或科学证据)的驱使,他们是否会容忍呢?在本研究中,我们将探讨立场转变背后的动机是否会影响选民对政党的评价。为此,我们试图将政策转变的原因和结果联系起来,而这种协同作用在文献中仍未得到探讨。我们认为,虽然一般来说,"U-turns "会损害政党的声誉,但由新的科学证据或重大危机带来的原则性转变并不一定会产生负面影响,因为这些转变可能是公共利益所必需的。我们在德国进行了一项具有全国代表性的调查实验(n = 3127),其中包括两类政策逆转:战略性逆转和原则性逆转。然而,令人惊讶的是,我们发现选民普遍对不同类型的政策U-turns持有负面看法,因此也包括外部环境表明有必要做出改变的情况。有趣的是,我们的实证分析揭示了一些耐人寻味的模式。首先,如果政党最终采纳了选民的立场,选民愿意容忍各种政策逆转,这表明即使在发生外生事件的情况下,亲疏关系也很重要。其次,政治信任度高的选民会容忍不同类型的政策逆转,即使政党的改变仅仅是出于寻求职位的战略动机。从政治和社会变革势在必行这一前提出发,这些发现对民主政体有着直接的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Do voters differentially punish transnational corruption? 选民对跨国腐败的惩罚力度是否不同?
IF 3.6 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-12-12 DOI: 10.1111/1475-6765.12643
VANESSA CHENG-MATSUNO, DANIEL BERLINER

A large literature studies whether, and under what circumstances, voters will electorally punish corrupt politicians. Yet this literature has to date neglected the empirical prevalence of transnational dimensions to real-world corruption allegations, even as corruption studies undergo a ‘transnational turn’. We use a survey experiment in the United Kingdom in 2020 to investigate whether voters differentially punish politicians associated with transnational corruption and test four different potential mechanisms: information salience, country-based discrimination, economic nationalism and expected representation. We find evidence suggesting that voters indeed differentially punish transnational corruption, but only when it involves countries perceived negatively by the public (i.e. a ‘Moscow-based firm’). This is most consistent with a mechanism of country-based discrimination, while we find no evidence consistent with any other mechanism. These results suggest that existing experimental studies might understate the potential for electoral accountability by neglecting real-world corruption allegations’ frequent transnational dimension.

有大量文献研究选民是否以及在何种情况下会在选举中惩罚腐败的政治家。然而,迄今为止,即使腐败研究出现了 "跨国转向",这些文献仍忽视了现实世界中腐败指控的跨国层面的实证普遍性。我们利用 2020 年在英国进行的一项调查实验,调查选民是否会对与跨国腐败有关的政客进行不同程度的惩罚,并检验四种不同的潜在机制:信息显著性、基于国家的歧视、经济民族主义和预期代表性。我们发现的证据表明,选民确实会对跨国腐败行为进行不同程度的惩罚,但只有当跨国腐败涉及的国家被公众认为是负面的(即 "莫斯科公司")时,才会出现这种情况。这与基于国家的歧视机制最为吻合,而我们没有发现与其他机制吻合的证据。这些结果表明,现有的实验研究可能低估了选举问责的潜力,因为它们忽视了现实世界中经常出现的跨国腐败指控。
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引用次数: 0
Differentiating the sources of post-election partisan affect warming 区分选举后党派情绪升温的来源
IF 3.6 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-11-30 DOI: 10.1111/1475-6765.12641
NOAM GIDRON, LIOR SHEFFER

While scholars have closely examined the intensification of negative affect across party lines during elections, less is known about the decline of partisan hostility in the aftermath of election campaigns. Synthesizing insights from research on electoral rules and political psychology, we theorize and empirically test two such mechanisms of post-election negative affect decline. The first is that of winners' generosity: the expectation that self-perceived election winners will express warmer feelings towards political opponents. The second is that of co-governance, which predicts that shared coalition status leads to warmer affective evaluations among governing parties. We provide evidence that these mechanisms operate as pressure valves of negative partisan affect. We also show that while co-governance reduces negative affect between parties who govern together, it fuels negative affect among supporters of opposition parties. The empirical analyses leverage a uniquely uncertain political period following the 2021 Israeli elections, around which we conducted an original panel study. Our findings advance the comparative polarization literature and connect psychological and institutional accounts of temporal fluctuations in partisan affect.

虽然学者们已经仔细研究了选举期间跨党派负面情绪的加剧,但对于竞选活动结束后党派敌对情绪的下降却知之甚少。综合对选举规则和政治心理学的研究,我们对选举后负面情绪下降的两种机制进行了理论和实证检验。第一种是赢家的慷慨:自我认为的选举赢家会对政治对手表达更温暖的情感。第二种是共同治理机制,该机制预测,共同的联盟地位会导致执政党之间更温暖的情感评价。我们提供的证据表明,这些机制是消极党派情感的压力阀。我们还表明,虽然共同执政会减少共同执政党之间的负面情绪,但却会助长反对党支持者的负面情绪。实证分析利用了 2021 年以色列大选后一个独特的不确定政治时期,我们围绕这个时期开展了一项原创性的面板研究。我们的研究结果推动了比较两极分化文献的发展,并将党派情感时空波动的心理和制度解释联系起来。
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引用次数: 0
Do parties matter for policy accumulation? An analysis of social policy portfolios in 22 countries 政党对政策积累重要吗?对 22 个国家社会政策组合的分析
IF 3.6 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-11-27 DOI: 10.1111/1475-6765.12642
XAVIER FERNÁNDEZ-I-MARÍN, CHRISTOPH KNILL, YVES STEINEBACH

This article analyses the role of political parties in policy accumulation. We study this relationship in the area of social policy. Our analysis builds on a large data set covering the size of policy portfolios (policy targets and instruments) in three subfields of social policy for 22 OECD countries over 30 years. We find that the probability of social policy accumulation is not affected by the government's ideological position. Left governments do not produce more extensive social policy portfolios than right ones. Yet, this striking result does not contradict governments’ political ideologies, as left and right parties accumulate for different reasons. While left parties address new social policy targets to broaden the scope of the welfare state, right parties adopt new policy instruments to condition social benefits. These findings hold regardless of how we measure governments’ ideological position and despite strong endogenous policy growth dynamics, that is, countries with greater policy portfolios also display higher levels of policy accumulation. Our findings indicate that party political considerations can explain the reasons for but not the level of policy accumulation. Changes in government are thus unlikely to stall or slow down the constant accumulation of public policies.

本文分析了政党在政策积累中的作用。我们在社会政策领域研究了这种关系。我们的分析基于一个大型数据集,该数据集涵盖了 22 个经合组织国家 30 年来社会政策三个子领域的政策组合规模(政策目标和工具)。我们发现,社会政策积累的概率不受政府意识形态立场的影响。左翼政府的社会政策组合并不比右翼政府更广泛。然而,这一惊人的结果与政府的政治意识形态并不矛盾,因为左翼和右翼政党积累社会政策的原因各不相同。左翼政党制定新的社会政策目标以扩大福利国家的范围,而右翼政党则采用新的政策工具来调节社会福利。无论我们如何衡量政府的意识形态立场,这些结论都是成立的,尽管政策增长具有很强的内生动力,也就是说,政策组合较多的国家也显示出较高的政策积累水平。我们的研究结果表明,政党政治因素可以解释政策积累的原因,但不能解释政策积累的水平。因此,政府更迭不太可能阻碍或减缓公共政策的不断积累。
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引用次数: 0
Should we include margins of error in public opinion polls? 我们是否应该在民意调查中加入误差范围?
IF 3.6 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-11-24 DOI: 10.1111/1475-6765.12633
WERNER KRAUSE, CHRISTINA GAHN

Public opinion polls have become vital and increasingly visible parts of election campaigns. Previous research has frequently demonstrated that polls can influence both citizens' voting intentions and political parties' campaign strategies. However, they are also fraught with uncertainty. Margins of error can reflect (parts of) this uncertainty. This paper investigates how citizens' voting intentions change due to whether polling estimates are presented with or without margins of error.

Using a vignette experiment (N=3224), we examine this question based on a real-world example in which different election polls were shown to nationally representative respondents ahead of the 2021 federal election in Germany. We manipulated the display of the margins of error, the interpretation of polls and the closeness of the electoral race.

The results indicate that margins of error can influence citizens' voting intentions. This effect is dependent on the actual closeness of the race and additional interpretative guidance provided to voters. More concretely, the results consistently show that margins of error increase citizens' inclination to vote for one of the two largest contesting parties if the polling gap between these parties is small, and an interpretation underlines this closeness.

The findings of this study are important for three reasons. First, they help to determine whether margins of error can assist citizens in making more informed (strategic) vote decisions. They shed light on whether depicting opinion-poll uncertainty affects the key features of representative democracy, such as democratic accountability. Second, the results stress the responsibility of the media. The way polls are interpreted and contextualized influences the effect of margins of error on voting behaviour. Third, the findings of this paper underscore the significance of including methodological details when communicating scientific research findings to the broader public.

民意调查已成为竞选活动的重要组成部分,而且越来越引人注目。以往的研究经常表明,民意调查既能影响公民的投票意向,也能影响政党的竞选策略。然而,民意调查也充满了不确定性。误差边际可以反映(部分)这种不确定性。本文研究了公民的投票意向会因民调估计值是否包含误差边际而发生怎样的变化。通过一个小实验(N=3224),我们基于一个真实世界的例子研究了这一问题:在德国 2021 年联邦大选之前,我们向具有全国代表性的受访者展示了不同的选举民调。我们操纵了误差幅度的显示、对民意调查的解释以及选情的接近程度。结果表明,误差幅度会影响公民的投票意向。结果表明,误差幅度会影响公民的投票意向。这种影响取决于实际的选情接近程度以及为选民提供的额外解释性指导。更具体地说,研究结果一致表明,如果最大的两个竞选党派之间的民调差距较小,误差幅度会增加公民对其中一个党派的投票倾向,而解释则会强调这种接近性。首先,它们有助于确定误差幅度是否能帮助公民做出更明智的(战略性)投票决定。它们揭示了描述民意调查的不确定性是否会影响代议制民主的关键特征,如民主问责制。其次,研究结果强调了媒体的责任。对民意调查的解读方式和语境会影响误差幅度对投票行为的影响。第三,本文的研究结果强调了在向广大公众传播科学研究结果时纳入方法论细节的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Territorial disputes and affective polarization 领土争端和情感极化
IF 3.6 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-11-16 DOI: 10.1111/1475-6765.12640
LAIA BALCELLS, LESLEY-ANN DANIELS, ALEXANDER KUO

Can territorial disputes within countries be a basis for affective polarization? If so, how does it vary across territories? A burgeoning literature on affective polarization has largely focused on partisan divisions; we argue that contentious political issues such as those relating to territorial integrity can also be a basis for such affective polarization, where citizens feel concord with those sharing such policy preferences and animus for those who do not. We specify hypotheses about territorial-policy-based affective polarization and bring comparative survey evidence from three European regions with salient and contentious territorial claims: Scotland, Catalonia and Northern Ireland. While these three cases encompass different outcomes of territorial disputes, our results show strikingly similar levels of affective polarization.

国家内部的领土争端能否成为情感极化的基础?如果是,那么不同领土之间的差异如何?关于情感两极化的新兴文献主要集中在党派分歧上;我们认为,诸如领土完整等有争议的政治问题也可以成为情感两极化的基础,在这种情况下,公民会对那些具有相同政策偏好的人产生好感,而对那些不具有相同政策偏好的人产生敌意。我们提出了关于基于领土政策的情感极化的假设,并提供了三个欧洲地区的比较调查证据:苏格兰、加泰罗尼亚和北爱尔兰。虽然这三个案例包含了领土争端的不同结果,但我们的结果却显示出惊人相似的情感极化水平。
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引用次数: 0
Active, assertive, anointed, absconded? Testing claims about career politicians in the United Kingdom 积极、自信、受宠、潜逃?检验英国职业政客的说法
IF 3.6 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-11-11 DOI: 10.1111/1475-6765.12637
PHILIP WARNCKE, DONALD D. SEARING, NICHOLAS ALLEN

This article undertakes a comprehensive investigation into several common critiques of career politicians. Career politicians are said to be self-serving: active and assertive when it suits their career interests, and much more interested in attaining higher offices than in serving as constituency-oriented MPs. Yet, empirical investigations of their alleged behaviours are few, and the results are patchy and mixed. Focusing on the United Kingdom case and using a multi-dimensional conceptualization that accords with academic and popular understandings of career politicians, the article draws on uniquely rich attitudinal and longitudinal behavioural data covering the first large generational wave of career politicians to be elected to parliament in the early 1970s. It reports findings consistent with contemporary critiques, suggesting that such dispositions are inherent in the role of career politician. The strongest career politicians among this first wave concentrated strategically on career-serving activities, voted strategically to safeguard their careers, attained and retained successfully ministerial offices and prioritized their personal goals over their party obligations. The article further demonstrates that different measures used by researchers can produce contradictory results and that future comparative research should seek to range beyond unidimensional indicators.

本文全面探讨了对职业政治家的几种常见批评。据说职业政治家都是为自己服务的:在符合自己职业利益的情况下积极主动,对获得更高的职位比作为选区导向的议员更感兴趣。然而,对他们所谓行为的实证调查却很少,结果也是参差不齐。文章以英国的情况为重点,采用符合学术界和大众对职业政客的理解的多维概念,利用了独一无二的丰富态度和纵向行为数据,这些数据涵盖了 20 世纪 70 年代初当选为议员的第一代职业政客。文章报告的研究结果与当代的批评意见一致,表明职业政治家的角色本身就具有这种倾向。在这第一波浪潮中,最有实力的职业政治家在战略上专注于为职业服务的活动,在战略上投票以保障其职业生涯,成功获得并保留部长职位,并将个人目标置于政党义务之上。文章进一步说明,研究人员使用的不同衡量标准可能会产生相互矛盾的结果,未来的比较研究应力求超越单维指标。
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引用次数: 0
Bounded solidarity? Experimental evidence on cross-national bonding in the EU during the COVID crisis 有限制的团结?COVID 危机期间欧盟跨国团结的实验证据
IF 3.6 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-11-11 DOI: 10.1111/1475-6765.12636
IOANA-ELENA OANA, ZBIGNIEW TRUCHLEWSKI

Most studies on European solidarity (‘bonding’) during COVID-19 lack a baseline comparison with outside states. We, therefore, cannot say whether European solidarity is universal or geared towards European Union (EU) insiders (‘bounding’). We thus ask whether European solidarity is ‘bounded’, that is, whether it relies on differentiation between European insiders and outsiders. We argue that if existent, bounded solidarity constitutes a long-term and thick basis for institutional building. To explore this ‘bonding–bounding’ dynamic, we use a vignette experiment embedded into an original survey collected in eight European countries (n ∼ 8900), covering all European regions. Our design varies the countries receiving solidarity, and the channels (EU level vs. member state level), policy domains (health vs. economy) and instruments (loans, grants, medical equipment, vaccines) through which solidarity is provided. Regarding bounding, we find that most countries are more solidaristic with EU countries than an outsider, baseline state (Peru), Italy excepted. There is, nonetheless, a strong heterogeneity between countries: France, Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden mostly want to help themselves and Southern member states, but not Central Eastern European member states, which we show is due to their perceived obstructionism related to the Rule of Law debate. Concerning the nature of solidarity, we find that most respondents prefer solidarity to be channelled through the EU and loans, with evidence suggesting a freeriding mechanism behind this preference. All in all, our results indicate that EU citizens form a distinct community of solidarity which, in line with a Rokkanian understanding of polity formation, plays a key role in political development and consolidation.

COVID-19 期间关于欧洲团结("结合")的大多数研究都缺乏与外部国家的基线比较。因此,我们无法断定欧洲团结是普遍的还是面向欧盟内部的("约束")。因此,我们要问欧洲团结是否是 "有界限的",即它是否依赖于欧洲内部人和外部人之间的区别。我们认为,有界限的团结如果存在,就为制度建设奠定了长期而坚实的基础。为了探索这种 "纽带-约束 "动态,我们使用了一个小插曲实验,将其嵌入到在八个欧洲国家(n ∼ 8900)收集的原始调查中,涵盖了所有欧洲地区。我们的设计改变了接受互助的国家,以及提供互助的渠道(欧盟层面与成员国层面)、政策领域(卫生与经济)和工具(贷款、赠款、医疗设备、疫苗)。在界限方面,我们发现大多数国家与欧盟国家的团结程度高于外来者、基准国(秘鲁),但意大利除外。然而,国家之间的差异也很大:法国、德国、荷兰和瑞典大多希望帮助自己和南部成员国,但不希望帮助中东欧成员国。关于团结的性质,我们发现大多数受访者更倾向于通过欧盟和贷款来实现团结,有证据表明这种倾向背后存在着一种免费机制。总之,我们的研究结果表明,欧盟公民形成了一个独特的团结群体,根据罗康纳对政体形成的理解,这个群体在政治发展和巩固中发挥着关键作用。
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引用次数: 0
The perceived problem-solving potential of deliberative minipublics: Evidence from a survey of Belgian citizens 小型公共协商机构解决问题的潜力:来自比利时公民调查的证据
IF 3.6 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-11-11 DOI: 10.1111/1475-6765.12639
LISA VAN DIJK, HANNAH WERNER, SOFIE MARIEN

Concerns about widespread democratic dissatisfaction have prompted a search for remedies, such as increasing citizens’ role in politics. While the public seems supportive, it remains unclear whether such newly introduced procedures can effectively tackle citizens’ dissatisfaction with present-day politics. This paper develops a problem-solving approach to studying this question. It proposes that combining insights on what ‘pushes’ and ‘pulls’ people to support procedural reform is crucial: Only then can we uncover if and how people consider procedural reform as addressing the problem(s) they see in the representative system today. Using the example of deliberative minipublics and original, pre-registered survey data from Belgium (n = 1,579), we find that respondents generally think of minipublics as problem-solvers rather than problem-creators, albeit to different degrees. For instance, this perceived problem-solving potential is more pronounced among discontent citizens. This study sheds new light on the importance of studying citizens’ reasoning about the roots and remedies for political dissatisfaction.

对普遍存在的民主不满情绪的担忧促使人们寻求补救措施,例如增强公民在政治中的作用。虽然公众似乎对此表示支持,但这些新引入的程序能否有效解决公民对当今政治的不满,仍是一个未知数。本文提出了一种解决问题的方法来研究这一问题。本文提出,将有关 "推动 "和 "拉动 "人们支持程序改革的因素的见解结合起来至关重要:只有这样,我们才能发现人们是否以及如何将程序改革视为解决他们在当今代议制中看到的问题。我们以议事型小型公共机构为例,利用比利时预先登记的原始调查数据(n = 1,579),发现受访者普遍认为小型公共机构是问题的解决者,而非问题的制造者,尽管程度不同。例如,这种解决问题的潜力在不满的公民中更为明显。本研究揭示了研究公民对政治不满的根源和补救措施的推理的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
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European Journal of Political Research
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