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Threats and the Public Constraint on Military Spending 威胁和公众对军费开支的限制
1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-11-08 DOI: 10.1017/s0007123423000443
Matthew DiGiuseppe, Alessia Aspide, Jordan Becker
Abstract The public places an important constraint on funding security in Europe, and austerity risks making the constraint tighter. Several recent studies show that curtailing military spending is a popular way to reduce debt in Europe. Yet it remains unclear if military spending aversion persists when threats are salient. We fielded an original survey experiment in Italy weeks before the Russian invasion of Ukraine to examine how information about security threats influences military spending preferences and fiscal trade-offs. We found that information about threats increases support for military spending. To validate the survey experiment, we recontacted and remeasured our respondent's preferences three weeks after Russia's invasion and find evidence consistent with our initial experiment. Our findings suggest that, while public opposition to military spending remains high in Italy, external threats dampen the public's opposition to military spending, even under high debt burdens.
在欧洲,公共资金是制约资金安全的重要因素,而财政紧缩可能会使这种制约变得更加严格。最近的几项研究表明,削减军费开支是欧洲减少债务的一种流行方式。然而,目前尚不清楚,当威胁明显时,对军费开支的厌恶情绪是否会持续下去。在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的几周前,我们在意大利进行了一项原始调查实验,以研究有关安全威胁的信息如何影响军事支出偏好和财政权衡。我们发现,有关威胁的信息增加了对军事开支的支持。为了验证调查实验,我们在俄罗斯入侵三周后重新联系并重新测量了受访者的偏好,并找到了与我们最初实验一致的证据。我们的研究结果表明,尽管意大利公众对军费开支的反对程度仍然很高,但外部威胁抑制了公众对军费开支的反对,即使是在高债务负担的情况下。
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引用次数: 0
Witch Hunts? Electoral Cycles and Corruption Lawsuits in Argentina 女巫狩猎吗?阿根廷的选举周期和腐败诉讼
1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-11-08 DOI: 10.1017/s000712342300042x
Germán Feierherd, Ezequiel Gonzalez-Ocantos, Guadalupe Tuñón
Abstract Courts prosecuting corruption serve a critical horizontal accountability function, but they can also play a role in moments of vertical accountability when voters can sanction corrupt candidates. This article documents the strategic use of corruption lawsuits, demonstrating the presence of an electoral cycle in filing new corruption accusations against politicians. Using an original dataset of daily corruption complaints filed in federal courts against members of Argentina's main political coalitions between 2013 and 2021, we document increased corruption accusations against and by politicians in the periods immediately preceding an election. A second dataset of daily media coverage of corruption accusations in two leading newspapers suggests that corruption is more salient before elections, offering politicians a temporal focal point to prepare and launch especially impactful lawsuits. Our findings shed new light on using courts for accountability and debates about the so-called ‘lawfare’ in Latin America.
起诉腐败的法院具有重要的横向问责功能,但在选民可以制裁腐败候选人的纵向问责时刻,法院也可以发挥作用。本文记录了腐败诉讼的战略用途,展示了在对政治家提出新的腐败指控时存在的选举周期。我们利用2013年至2021年期间向联邦法院提交的针对阿根廷主要政治联盟成员的日常腐败投诉的原始数据集,记录了在选举之前的一段时间内,针对政客和政客的腐败指控有所增加。第二组数据显示,两家主要报纸对腐败指控的每日媒体报道表明,腐败在选举前更为突出,这为政客们提供了一个暂时的焦点,可以准备和发起特别有影响力的诉讼。我们的研究结果为在拉丁美洲利用法院进行问责和关于所谓“法律战”的辩论提供了新的思路。
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引用次数: 0
Founding Narratives and Men's Political Ambition: Experimental Evidence from US Civics Lessons 建国叙事与男人的政治野心:来自美国公民课的实验证据
1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-26 DOI: 10.1017/s0007123423000340
Amanda Clayton, Diana Z. O'Brien, Jennifer M. Piscopo
Abstract One oft-cited reason for women's political underrepresentation is that women express less political ambition than men. We reframe the puzzle of women's ambition deficit, asking why men have an ambition surplus. Drawing on the concept of symbolic representation, we theorize that political symbols convey to men their capacity for exceptional political leadership. We test our expectations with a US-based survey experiment in which respondents watch one of three ‘two-minute civics lessons’. Men who watched a video featuring the accomplishments of the Founding Fathers reported significantly more political ambition than men assigned to the control group. Additional studies indicate that the effects are specific to the Founding Fathers (as compared to early American statesmen). Men are also more likely than women to identify the Founding Fathers as inspiring figures and to feel pride when considering them. Our findings suggest how history is told contributes to men's persistent political overrepresentation.
女性政治代表性不足的一个经常被引用的原因是女性表达的政治抱负比男性少。我们重新定义了女性缺乏野心的困惑,问为什么男性有野心过剩。根据符号代表的概念,我们提出了政治符号向人们传达他们卓越的政治领导能力的理论。我们在美国进行了一项调查实验,测试了我们的预期。在这项实验中,受访者观看了三节“两分钟公民课”中的一节。观看开国元勋成就视频的男性比对照组的男性表现出更大的政治野心。另外的研究表明,这种影响只存在于开国元勋身上(与早期的美国政治家相比)。男性也比女性更有可能将开国元勋视为鼓舞人心的人物,并在考虑他们时感到自豪。我们的研究结果表明,讲述历史的方式导致了男性在政治上的持续比例过高。
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引用次数: 0
The Importance of Breaking Even: How Local and Aggregate Returns Make Politically Feasible Policies 收支平衡的重要性:地方和总收益如何使政策在政治上可行
1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-20 DOI: 10.1017/s0007123423000522
Alan S. Gerber, Gregory A. Huber, Patrick D. Tucker, John J. Cho
Abstract Policies that promote the common good may be politically infeasible if legislators representing ‘losing’ constituencies are punished for failing to promote their district's welfare. We investigate how varying the local and aggregate returns to a policy affects voter support for their incumbent. In our first study, we find that an incumbent who favours a welfare-enhancing policy enjoys a discontinuous jump in support when their district moves from losing to at least breaking even, while the additional incremental political returns for the district doing better than breaking even are modest. This feature of voter response, which we replicate, has significant implications for legislative politics generally and, in particular, how to construct politically feasible social welfare-enhancing policies. In a second study, we investigate the robustness of this finding in a competitive environment in which a challenger can call attention to a legislator's absolute and relative performance in delivering resources to their district.
如果代表“失败”选区的立法者因未能促进其选区的福利而受到惩罚,那么促进共同利益的政策可能在政治上是不可行的。我们调查了一项政策的地方和总回报的变化如何影响选民对其现任者的支持。在我们的第一项研究中,我们发现,当选区从亏损转为至少收支平衡时,支持提高福利政策的现任者的支持率会出现不连续的跃升,而优于收支平衡的选区的额外增量政治回报是适度的。我们复制的选民反应的这一特征对立法政治具有重要意义,特别是如何构建政治上可行的社会福利增强政策。在第二项研究中,我们调查了这一发现在竞争环境中的稳健性,在竞争环境中,挑战者可以提请注意立法者在向其地区提供资源方面的绝对和相对表现。
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引用次数: 0
Less Human Than Human: Threat, Language, and Relative Dehumanization 不如人:威胁、语言和相对的非人性化
1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-16 DOI: 10.1017/s0007123423000406
Shane P. Singh, Jaroslav Tir
Abstract A government's decision to communicate in a native tongue rather than a commonly used and understood but non-native language can prompt perception through an ethnically-tinted lens. While native-language communication is commonplace and typically benign, we argue that conveying a threat posed by an outgroup in a native tongue can trigger dehumanizing attitudes. We conducted a pre-registered survey experiment focusing on attitudes toward Muslim and Chinese people in India to test our expectations. In our two-stage design, we randomly assigned respondents to a survey language (Hindi or English) and, after that, to threat-provoking or control conditions. While Muslims and China are associated with recent violence against India, the government has routinely portrayed only the former as threatening. Likely due to this divergence, Hindi language assignment alone triggers Muslim dehumanization. Indians' more innocuous views of Chinese are responsive to exogenously-induced threat, particularly when conveyed in Hindi.
政府决定使用母语而不是一种普遍使用和理解的非母语进行交流,可能会通过种族色彩的镜头引发人们的看法。虽然母语交流是司空见惯的,而且通常是良性的,但我们认为,用母语传达外部群体构成的威胁可能会引发非人性化的态度。我们进行了一项预先登记的调查实验,重点关注印度人对穆斯林和中国人的态度,以检验我们的期望。在我们的两阶段设计中,我们将受访者随机分配到一种调查语言(印地语或英语)中,然后再分配到威胁挑衅或控制条件中。虽然穆斯林和中国与最近针对印度的暴力事件有关,但政府通常只把前者描述为具有威胁性。可能由于这种差异,印地语分配本身就引发了穆斯林的非人化。印度人对中国人更为无害的看法是对外生威胁的反应,尤其是在用印地语表达时。
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引用次数: 0
When Do Citizens Consider Political Parties Legitimate? 公民何时认为政党合法?
1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-13 DOI: 10.1017/s0007123423000364
Ann-Kristin Kölln
Abstract Research on negative partisanship and affective polarization shows that wholesale rejections of individual parties are a common and growing phenomenon. This article offers a novel perspective on assessments of parties by considering citizens' legitimacy perceptions of political parties as institutional players. Combining research on political parties and public opinion, I develop a theoretical framework that explains how parties' characteristics shape their perception as legitimate institutional players. I argue that governing experience, age, ideology, and democratic behaviour provide informational cues to citizens about how democratically dangerous a party is. To test my argument, I fielded a cross-sectional survey in seven West European countries and a large-scale survey experiment. The results consistently show that citizens use party-level cues such as ideological moderation and democratic behaviour to form party legitimacy perceptions. The findings have important public opinion implications for political parties and their institutional role in democracies.
对消极党派关系和情感两极分化的研究表明,个别政党的大规模拒绝是一种普遍且日益增长的现象。本文通过考虑公民对政党作为制度参与者的合法性认知,为政党评估提供了一个新颖的视角。结合对政党和公众舆论的研究,我开发了一个理论框架来解释政党的特征如何塑造他们作为合法制度参与者的看法。我认为,执政经验、年龄、意识形态和民主行为为公民提供了信息线索,让他们知道一个政党在民主方面有多危险。为了验证我的观点,我在七个西欧国家进行了横断面调查,并进行了大规模的调查实验。结果一致表明,公民使用政党层面的线索,如意识形态温和和民主行为,来形成党的合法性认知。这些发现对政党及其在民主制度中的制度作用具有重要的民意意义。
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引用次数: 0
Crossing the Line: Evidence for the Categorization Theory of Spatial Voting 越界:空间投票分类理论的证据
1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-13 DOI: 10.1017/s0007123423000315
Mark Pickup, Erik O. Kimbrough, Eline A. de Rooij
Abstract Bølstad and Dinas (2017) propose a model of spatial voting, based on social identity theory, that suggests supporting a candidate/policy on the other side of the ideological spectrum has a disutility that is not accounted for by common spatial models. Unfortunately, the data they use cannot speak directly to whether the disutility arises because individuals perceive their ideology as a social identity. We present the results of an experimental study that measures the norm against crossing the ideological spectrum; tests the cost of doing so, controlling for spatial effects; and demonstrates that this cost increases with the salience and strength of identity norms. By demonstrating the norm mechanism for the disutility of crossing the ideological spectrum, we provide strong support for B&D's model.
Bølstad和Dinas(2017)提出了一个基于社会认同理论的空间投票模型,该模型表明,支持意识形态光谱另一端的候选人/政策具有一般空间模型无法解释的负效用。不幸的是,他们使用的数据并不能直接说明这种负效用是否因为个人将他们的意识形态视为一种社会身份而产生。我们提出了一项实验研究的结果,该研究测量了反对跨越意识形态光谱的规范;测试这样做的成本,控制空间效应;并证明了这种成本随着身份规范的显著性和强度而增加。通过论证跨意识形态频谱负效用的规范机制,我们为B&D的模型提供了强有力的支持。
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引用次数: 0
Toeing the Party Line: The Asymmetric Influence of Feminism on Partisans' Participation 追随党派路线:女性主义对党派参与的不对称影响
1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-13 DOI: 10.1017/s0007123423000510
Marzia Oceno, Sara Morell
Abstract What is the relationship between feminism and political participation? How does partisanship moderate this relationship? Prior research shows that gender attitudes, particularly sexism, rather than gender identity per se, increasingly shape vote choice and participation in US elections. However, the role played by feminism in voter behaviour remains scarcely understood. As feminist identification crosses partisanship, we argue that its impact on engagement with campaigns and turnout depends on party ID. Therefore, we expect feminist identity and how it intersects with either aligned or conflicting partisan identity to impact partisans' participation asymmetrically. Using data from the 2016 and 2020 American National Election Studies, our results support these expectations. Holding the mutually reinforcing identities of Democrat and feminist has a significant mobilizing impact, while holding the cross-cutting identities of Republican and feminist tends to lead to a decline in political participation.
女性主义与政治参与的关系是什么?党派之争是如何缓和这种关系的?先前的研究表明,性别态度,尤其是性别歧视,而不是性别认同本身,越来越多地影响着美国选举中的投票选择和参与。然而,女权主义在选民行为中所扮演的角色仍然鲜为人知。由于女权主义认同跨越党派关系,我们认为其对参与竞选和投票率的影响取决于政党身份。因此,我们期望女权主义身份以及它如何与一致或冲突的党派身份相交,以不对称的方式影响党派的参与。使用2016年和2020年美国全国选举研究的数据,我们的结果支持这些预期。持有民主党和女权主义者这两种相互强化的身份具有显著的动员作用,而持有共和党和女权主义者这两种交叉的身份往往会导致政治参与的下降。
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引用次数: 0
The Expertise Paradox: How Policy Expertise Can Hinder Responsiveness 专业知识悖论:政策专业知识如何阻碍响应
1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-09 DOI: 10.1017/s0007123423000303
Miguel M. Pereira, Patrik Öhberg
Abstract We argue that policy expertise constrains the ability of politicians to act on voter preferences. Representatives with more knowledge and experience in a given domain have more confidence in their own issue-specific positions. Enhanced confidence, in turn, may lead politicians to discount opinions they disagree with, producing a distorted image of the electorate. Two experiments with Swedish politicians support this argument. First, officials are more likely to dismiss appeals from voters in their areas of expertise and less likely to accept that opposing views may represent the majority opinion. Consistent with the proposed mechanism, in a second experiment we show that inducing perceptions of expertise increases self-confidence. The results suggest that representatives with more specialized knowledge in a given area may be less capable of acting as delegates in that domain. The study provides a novel explanation for variations in policy responsiveness.
摘要本文认为,政策专业知识限制了政治家根据选民偏好采取行动的能力。在特定领域拥有更多知识和经验的代表对自己的特定问题职位更有信心。反过来,增强的信心可能会导致政客们忽视他们不同意的意见,从而产生一种扭曲的选民形象。两项针对瑞典政客的实验支持了这一观点。首先,官员们更有可能驳回自己专业领域选民的诉求,更不可能接受相反的观点可能代表多数人的意见。与提出的机制一致,在第二个实验中,我们表明,诱导感知专业知识增加自信。研究结果表明,在某一特定领域拥有更多专业知识的代表在该领域的表现可能更差。该研究为政策响应的差异提供了一种新颖的解释。
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引用次数: 0
Neither a Trait nor Wildly Fluctuating: On the Stability of Populist Attitudes and its Implications for Empirical Research 既非特质也非剧烈波动:论民粹主义态度的稳定性及其对实证研究的启示
1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-09 DOI: 10.1017/s0007123423000492
Christian H. Schimpf, Alexander Wuttke, Harald Schoen
Abstract The literature on populist attitudes frequently makes one of two assumptions: populist attitudes are either stable or unstable. However, few studies have examined these diverging assumptions empirically. We use panel data collected over six panel waves between 2017 and 2021 in Germany to assess the stability of populist attitudes. Integrating inter-individual stability (variable-centred) and intra-individual stability (individual trajectories), we find that populist attitudes are neither fully stable (trait) nor fully flexible (state). For example, some respondents constantly changed their view on populism while the attitudes in one out of three individuals remained stable. We also explore empirical consequences and find that populist attitudes are more closely linked to vote choice when they are stable. Accordingly, we argue for a more nuanced understanding of the dynamics of populist attitudes, both at the variable and individual levels, where these attitudes are stable and consequential for only a subset of individuals.
关于民粹主义态度的文献经常做出两种假设之一:民粹主义态度要么是稳定的,要么是不稳定的。然而,很少有研究对这些不同的假设进行实证检验。我们使用2017年至2021年间在德国收集的六次面板数据来评估民粹主义态度的稳定性。综合个体间稳定性(以变量为中心)和个体内部稳定性(个体轨迹),我们发现民粹主义态度既不是完全稳定的(特质),也不是完全灵活的(状态)。例如,一些受访者不断改变对民粹主义的看法,而三分之一的人的态度保持稳定。我们还探讨了实证结果,发现当民粹主义态度稳定时,民粹主义态度与投票选择的关系更为密切。因此,我们主张对民粹主义态度的动态进行更细致的理解,无论是在变量层面还是在个人层面,这些态度都是稳定的,只对一小部分人有影响。
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引用次数: 0
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British Journal of Political Science
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